Search found 1154 matches

by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - AMZN RSUs
Replies: 35
Views: 1408

Re: Job offer - AMZN RSUs

Money isn't the issue though...tech workers make enough and Amazon is no different. And I was speaking in terms of the possibility of leaving before 3 years. If you're staying for 4 years then obviously it's not going to matter. Companies competing with Amazon for talent are the same ones willing t...
by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - AMZN RSUs
Replies: 35
Views: 1408

Re: Job offer - AMZN RSUs

I'm in tech; I think the vesting schedule is ridiculous. It means you can't leave for 3 years, and as another poster said, "There is also a rumor that the performance review for end of year 2 is pretty tough" is a major red flag in my opinion. I don’t think the vest is that bad because th...
by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - AMZN RSUs
Replies: 35
Views: 1408

Re: Job offer - AMZN RSUs

I'm in tech; I think the vesting schedule is ridiculous. It means you can't leave for 3 years, and as another poster said, "There is also a rumor that the performance review for end of year 2 is pretty tough" is a major red flag in my opinion.
by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?
Replies: 124
Views: 15553

Re: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?

The 1929 scenario was 'helped' dramatically by the fact that there were several years of deflation ... Date US CPI 1927 -2.26% 1928 -1.16% 1928 0.59% 1930 -6.40% 1931 -9.32% 1932 -10.27% Yes, and quite naturally so as everyone went poor. Goods and services had to deflate as folks couldn't afford th...
by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in Another Housing Bubble? (Charlotte NC region)
Replies: 49
Views: 3174

Re: Are We in Another Housing Bubble? (Charlotte NC region)

The prices aren't coming down in the Bay Area for real-estate. Certainly not on the Peninsula. So hearing all of the stories of Californians leaving the state, I wonder how many are house-owners who actually sell their house? At least in the company I work for in California, if you move to another ...
by Marseille07
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 780
Views: 115772

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I really like this analysis. 60/40 works super well when a retiree runs into big crashes. If not, more aggressive AA performs better. Of course, what's tricky is we don't know the cards we're dealt.
by Marseille07
Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?
Replies: 41
Views: 2553

Re: Is anyone else pretty lax with their AA?

If the OP was 70/30 and now 77/23, I don't think it's a big deal, if not beneficial. I'm sensing that the OP's AA was too conservative and there's nothing wrong letting it loose a bit.
by Marseille07
Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio strategy using only QQQ and cash
Replies: 32
Views: 1569

Re: Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio strategy using only QQQ and cash

Unsurprisingly, lots of negative views on QQQ. Just do a hybrid like I'm doing. You don't have to choose between 100% S&P or 100% QQQ. Splitting in some fashion is totally valid.
by Marseille07
Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to stay invested in a surging market
Replies: 47
Views: 3653

Re: How to stay invested in a surging market

You don't take profit is the point. If your stock AA is inflated and bonds deflated, rebalancing would act as a form of profit taking.
by Marseille07
Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio strategy using only QQQ and cash
Replies: 32
Views: 1569

Re: Warren Buffett's 90/10 portfolio strategy using only QQQ and cash

I do something similar to this myself, splitting the stock portion between VOO and QQQ. I don't like the 10% being cash though, I use TLT instead.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12200
Views: 942511

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

000 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:04 pm Which of your other trades dug the hole?
Volatility trading. It's difficult to go long or short right now as traders are still jittery.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12200
Views: 942511

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

000 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:58 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:54 pm In a hole right now, need to get out of it.
What?
Boglehead portfolio is doing fine but I have another taxable doing other trades.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12200
Views: 942511

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

In a hole right now, need to get out of it.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: any two-fund portfolio investors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2445

Re: any two-fund portfolio investors?

A two-funder here doing 90/10, US stocks / long-term treasury, no international.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US expat in UK looking for UK reporting fund investment advice
Replies: 19
Views: 735

Re: US expat in UK looking for UK reporting fund investment advice

Like other posters are saying, read up on PFIC before making a move. I can't believe your FA is advising to go with UK-reporting funds. Might have to find a different FA.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation when you have exceeded your number
Replies: 38
Views: 2972

Re: Asset allocation when you have exceeded your number

A declining glidepath probably makes sense imo. I wouldn't make a drastic change like going from 90/10 to 30/70.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what happens to bitcoin if tether implodes?
Replies: 18
Views: 1588

Re: what happens to bitcoin if tether implodes?

No one knows what happens next. I don't even understand why people exchange 36K for 1BTC today in the first place.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Color scheme change?
Replies: 22
Views: 1484

Re: Ugly BLACK Borders

I thought we're paying tribute to Mr. Bogle's passing.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12200
Views: 942511

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I don't like this market. Seems too jittery, goes up 1% on favorable news then drops 1% the next day. A strong bull market goes up calmly.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12200
Views: 942511

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on! Turn those machines back on!
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple (not easy) Elimination of SOR Risk
Replies: 25
Views: 1811

Re: A Simple (not easy) Elimination of SOR Risk

Imo percentage-based methods make more sense than constant-dollar + inflation, anyway. When your portfolio is down 40%, you cut back on travel plans, spend down your EF etc etc.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 1639

Re: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?

Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds? The main reason for having bonds (at least for someone who is young) is to reduce your risk and hedge your bets a bit (at least it used to be that way, the stock and bond market were correlated during the drop this year). Also it is easier mentally...
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple (not easy) Elimination of SOR Risk
Replies: 25
Views: 1811

Re: A Simple (not easy) Elimination of SOR Risk

Here is the simple (not great in practice) way to eliminate all SOR risk: If withdrawals are proportional to portfolio size, there can be no sequence of return issue. The commutative property of multiplication applies and the sequence of returns is immaterial. So a fixed percent of portfolio withdr...
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mando's Risk Parity Strategy [Hedgefundie's EA modification]
Replies: 16
Views: 1216

Re: Mando's Risk Parity Strategy [Hedgefundie's EA modification]

I think you have too many buckets for all kinds of instruments. There's very little chance 11% Gold, 28% small cap etc etc would remain optimal outside of your backtested period. This is called curve-fitting, and the only way to combat that is to reduce your variables.
by Marseille07
Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome security risk?
Replies: 6
Views: 559

Re: Google Chrome security risk?

Shouldn't be prefilled if you don't have passwords saved...are you sure that's coming from Google Passwords and not some other extension?
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Millennial - invest in bonds at all?
Replies: 105
Views: 8404

Re: Millennial - invest in bonds at all?

90/10 here, thought about going 100/0 but I like the ability to rebalance. I think 90/10 is close enough to 100/0 anyway.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough
Replies: 26
Views: 2953

Re: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough

VOO for example tracks the S&P 500 - it doesn't have to carry the same underlying as how the index is calculated, so long as it can track the index. Sure, it doesn’t have to hold the same assets as the underlying index. But it actually does so why does the distinction matter? Focusing on the un...
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough
Replies: 26
Views: 2953

Re: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough

I don't think you understand what people are saying or how ETFs work. The underlying doesn't matter so long as an ETF is achieving its objective. In fact, if concentration actually mattered then VOO wouldn't be tracking S&P500 long ago.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is your "number" defined?
Replies: 177
Views: 15153

Re: How is your "number" defined?

goodenyou wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:30 pm Interesting how these posts get resuscitated after a year.
Reading closely, I guess I shouldn't have resuscitated it because the OP already had a 700M portfolio last year.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough
Replies: 26
Views: 2953

Re: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough

Focusing on the underlying is silly because it says nothing about the intent of an ETF. VOO can hold bitcoin and still track the S&P 500.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough
Replies: 26
Views: 2953

Re: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough

Also, I don't think the OP understands the intent of those ETFs. VOO for example tracks the S&P 500 - it doesn't have to carry the same underlying as how the index is calculated, so long as it can track the index. Therefore, this "concentration" talk is irrelevant.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough
Replies: 26
Views: 2953

Re: S&P 500 index funds: not diversified enough

Do you understand what you're talking about? NOBL is a subset of S&P500. If S&P500 isn't diversified enough, NOBL cannot be an alternative.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Throttling, Spectrum and a VPN
Replies: 21
Views: 1557

Re: Throttling, Spectrum and a VPN

The OP should contact the ISP. It's their service, they own the circuit and they can run tests to look for packet loss / latency. The original questions of throttling (it's not) and VPN (does not help) are already answered.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is your "number" defined?
Replies: 177
Views: 15153

Re: How is your "number" defined?

I'm trying to calculate this myself and currently looking at 3% or 33x. With a lot of padding, I see around 5.3K/mo or 65K annually. This puts me around 2.2M but I really feel 2M is enough.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: who do you bank with and why?
Replies: 168
Views: 15786

Re: who do you bank with and why?

Ever since I moved, I've been doing the checking dance of Citi -> Chase -> Fidelity CMA -> Citi (in progress), all because of a precautionary measure to cut ties with an unnamed state. I wish Chase was better, or Marcus delivered on their promise earlier so my dance would've ended at one hop (Citi -...
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?
Replies: 60
Views: 3171

Re: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?

If you are really honest to yourself, DCA is pure market timing. If you want to reduce risk, you choose the right AA. DCA will just shift your problem of "stocks being too risky right now" into the near future. I think there are different kinds of risks here. I'm very comfortable maintain...
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 68
Views: 11827

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

Anyone thinks we need more than 50x estimated annual expenses? As a baseline, 25 years before age 65 per "Ages of the Investor, Life Cycle Investing" by Bernstein. X= projected annual expenses in retirement at another baseline, 4% annual withdrawal rate. j :D Thank you. I need to read thi...
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 68
Views: 11827

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

Anyone thinks we need more than 50x estimated annual expenses?
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 68
Views: 11827

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

I think another thing to consider is, just because you accumulated 50x of annual expenses doesn't mean you have to SWR 2%; I think it's fine to accumulate 50x then withdraw 3~4% for example.
by Marseille07
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50x milestone, and purposeful lifestyle inflation
Replies: 27
Views: 3245

Re: 50x milestone, and purposeful lifestyle inflation

It sounds like you enjoy and are motivated by donating to charities. That is great as well. Don’t underestimate the retirement charitable contribution matches from mega corps. That could be one reason I work at my mega Corp until I’m eligible for retirement. But also don’t discount the benefits of ...
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7262
Views: 710990

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

TMF 15% down in 7 days. How is everyone doing? Frustrating to be more than 5% down when the market went 2% up. 15% in 7 days is nothing . UPRO lost 77% between 2/19/20 and 3/23/20. A bigger concern isn't 15% vs 77% but that SPX down -0.15% and TMF going -2%. Not working as a hedge right now. If you...
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Throttling, Spectrum and a VPN
Replies: 21
Views: 1557

Re: Throttling, Spectrum and a VPN

VPN won't help, it still depends on your underlying internet connection.
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CrytpoCurrency
Replies: 55
Views: 4409

Re: CrytpoCurrency

I don't invest in cryptocurrency. This is all I need to know: Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes Bitcoin owners are getting rich because the cryptocurrency has soared. But what happens when you can’t tap that wealth because you forgot the password to your digital wallet?...
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21210
Views: 2878551

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stinky wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:11 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:08 pm /es opened at 3750, not looking good.
Are futures open tonight?

I thought that equity markets are closed tomorrow for the holiday.
Money never sleeps. The extended session is open.
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8652

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

I think the risk is higher than people might think. Interest rates can only go up from here, and we have student debt / healthcare cost crisis about to explode. With regard to student debt, I've been hearing about a 'coming crisis' since at least 2016, but so far, we're in mostly the same situation...
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation over time
Replies: 100
Views: 3689

Re: Asset allocation over time

I also exclude EF from AA calculations too, eventually I'm fine with just 6mo but not there yet and won't be for quite some time. In a previous post you stated you have two taxable accounts, one where you do "boglehead" investing and another where you do "all kinds of risky trading.&...
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21210
Views: 2878551

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

/es opened at 3750, not looking good.
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation over time
Replies: 100
Views: 3689

Re: Asset allocation over time

I also exclude EF from AA calculations too, eventually I'm fine with just 6mo but not there yet and won't be for quite some time.
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8652

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

vineviz wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:18 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:11 pm Interest rates can only go up from here, and we have student debt / healthcare cost crisis about to explode.
None of these things are inflation triggers.
It's backwards, yes. Interest rates rise to contain inflation after we already started inflating.
by Marseille07
Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8652

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

I think the risk is higher than people might think. Interest rates can only go up from here, and we have student debt / healthcare cost crisis about to explode. The good news is it's not hard to dodge a bullet, as inflation signs are hard to miss.