Search found 45 matches

by hackingdragon
Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real-Life Angel Investing Returns 2012–2016
Replies: 0
Views: 334

Real-Life Angel Investing Returns 2012–2016

https://medium.com/@yunfangjuan/real-life-angel-investing-returns-2012-2016-b33425fcb816 I thought it was interesting to read through the experience of a single angel investor. Some highlights: Using the conservative multiple of the breakout companies, the overall return multiple will be (12.5*9 + 1...
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: using iShares iBonds & Invesco Bulletshares to build bond ladders for term-certain income
Replies: 34
Views: 2010

Re: using iShares iBonds & Invesco Bulletshares to build bond ladders for term-certain income

If they are real needs wouldn’t it be a good idea to incorporate real assets like I bonds and TIPS? I bonds are currently returning 1.06%
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: using iShares iBonds & Invesco Bulletshares to build bond ladders for term-certain income
Replies: 34
Views: 2010

Re: using iShares iBonds & Invesco Bulletshares to build bond ladders for term-certain income

ponderosa wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:55 pm Knowing that I'll have specific income needs in each of five future years (in this case, 2024-2028)
Are these needs real or nominal?
by hackingdragon
Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK investors: Is there anything simialr to I bonds and EE bonds in the UK
Replies: 3
Views: 848

Re: UK investors: Is there anything simialr to I bonds and EE bonds in the UK

Thanks Ted. Yeah, I didn't think there was anything comparable.
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK investors: Is there anything simialr to I bonds and EE bonds in the UK
Replies: 3
Views: 848

UK investors: Is there anything simialr to I bonds and EE bonds in the UK

The US treasury offers low-risk savings products such as I bonds and EE bonds for US citizens/residents. They are unique in the sense that you can redeem them at any time (after one year) and there is no market. I bonds track inflation and EE bonds double in value after 20 years. I was wondering if ...
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5394

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

If they track inflation perfectly, then unless you are in a zero percent tax bracket when you cash in the bond, taxes will eat up a portion of the return. In an inflation-adjusted sense, you are getting less than what you paid in. I'm not sure how well they track inflation, considering the cost of ...
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 10, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5394

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

How can you predict inflaiton over the next 20 years? You can't. That's why it's best to pair I and EE bonds together. I was just stating that given our deflationary concerns, and low natural interest rate, it's less probable to see higher inflation. In other words, EE bonds provide good diversific...
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5394

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

I think the US is unique as they offer two types of bonds to individual investors that are good diversifiers in the current investing climate. These are I bonds and EE bonds. We can compare them to Clements two points from the article: Let's start with the obvious: If you buy high-quality bonds toda...
by hackingdragon
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's:A 60/40 Stocks/Bond Strategy Doesn’t Work. What to Do Instead.
Replies: 35
Views: 5716

Barron's:A 60/40 Stocks/Bond Strategy Doesn’t Work. What to Do Instead.

Link: A 60/40 Stocks/Bond Strategy Doesn’t Work. What to Do Instead. Oct. 3, 2020 Another article in spirit of the death of the 60/40 . Some highlights: Mix in “equity-like bonds and bond-like equities,” such as convertible securities, high-yield bonds, and shares of real-estate investment trusts—in...
by hackingdragon
Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective
Replies: 47
Views: 6445

Re: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective

No international REITs? REET (iShares Global REIT ETF) is a nice single holding. Yes, I'm a little baffled by some of the recommendations here. Anything other than a passive index of REITs would be security selection. If we do believe in the efficient market hypothesis (and even you don't believe i...
by hackingdragon
Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio
Replies: 106
Views: 8487

Re: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio

Yes, I just read this article as well. However I think the statement about treasuries isn't correct, and I'm a bit surprised the journalist presented it in such a way. First off, he's looking at 10 treasury prices as they fluctuate now, but this does not affect anyone who buys and hold the treasury ...
by hackingdragon
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CBO projections on treasury rates
Replies: 15
Views: 1312

Re: CBO projections on treasury rates

FWIW if the demographics of Japan & their interest rates suggest anything, it is that we in for a very long period of low interest rates, as the entire planet ages Yes, the CBO has a section on demographics and they take that into consideration. Also, I think your analysis echos many of the sam...
by hackingdragon
Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CBO projections on treasury rates
Replies: 15
Views: 1312

Re: CBO projections on treasury rates

It's valuable to note that the CBO has no particular insight in these projections and, in fact, isn't doing any particularly sophisticated analysis here. Looking their official document "How CBO Projects the Real Rate of Interest on 10-Year Treasury Notes" [pdf] it did seem pretty sophist...
by hackingdragon
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CBO projections on treasury rates
Replies: 15
Views: 1312

CBO projections on treasury rates

CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook was interesting due to it's coverage of the dangers of rising national debt. Thought this paragraph on their expectations for long term treasuries would be of some interest to people. 10 year treasury rates are currently at 0.68%. CBO expects interest rates to ris...
by hackingdragon
Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

So I just got off the phone with HMRC and it was pretty helpful. First, they said I would only need to apply for self-assessment if the income earned was over £300. Since I'm just a poor boy from a poor family I'm spared from this monstrosity. Second, UK does not recognize any tax deferment. I would...
by hackingdragon
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 56
Views: 4444

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

Also it's important to note that his 20% allocation to REITS as posted above is unlikely to be in a REIT Index like VNQ which is available to us, but rather to a selection of individual REITS carefully picked by him and his team. I'm sure that's true for Yale but didn't he write Unconventional Succ...
by hackingdragon
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 56
Views: 4444

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:52 pm Hope that helped if only somewhat.
This was helpful!
by hackingdragon
Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

TedSwippet wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:30 pm Except that the US overrides this for US citizens, as we've seen, with its 'saving clause'.
Thanks again Ted! Should I just call HMRC and ask? Don't know how else to find out how I bonds and EE bonds would be taxed.
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

Yes in essence correct, but HMRC could turn round and hit you w some awful tax on ibonds. Don't know but as it is an instrument that does not exist in UK I could easily see that being the case. What ILGs will do is provide a degree of protection against unexpected inflation. It should be covered by...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in rates
Replies: 9
Views: 735

Re: The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in r

I suppose my recomendation is approach the question less from a viewpoint of why other people might do something, but instead to focus on the totality of your own unique goals and constraints: have you made optimal use of your 401k/Roth IRA space, do you have projected portfolio withdrawals between...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in rates
Replies: 9
Views: 735

Re: The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in r

I'm unclear what you're wondering about, since you've explicitly ruled out two very powerful reasons ("re-balancing or yearly limits") as being of interest. Other powerful reasons might include a lack of taxable funds with which to invest, an investment horizon that is long-term (i.e. >10...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in rates
Replies: 9
Views: 735

The only reason to buy long-term treasuries over I bonds and EE bonds at current rates is to profit from a drop in rates

The title of the post is in spirit of Cunningham's Law: "The best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question, it's to post the wrong answer." I was just wondering about why individual investors would buy long-term treasuries (LTT) at these rates instead of I bonds...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

Thank you all for your posts. So, as I understand it, buying index-linked gilts/bonds is no guarantee to match inflation because of the demands of the market. Buyers might value safety over yield. This currently makes US I bonds a better deal. The return is guaranteed to match inflation because the ...
by hackingdragon
Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

Interesting. Thanks for all this. It seems that now I bonds are a better deal than TIPS. I don't know if would be worth transferring money to the US (currency exchange and transfer fees), and holding I bonds for 5 years. Also I don't know what the tax implications of that would be in the UK.
by hackingdragon
Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

Notably, if you have access to a UK pension (and that's not a given, now that a lot of UK platforms reject US citizens outright due to FATCA), you too could hold INXG, IGLT and other non-US domiciled ETFs in that without having to tangle with the US's appalling PFIC rules. PFIC doesn't apply to hol...
by hackingdragon
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

TedSwippet wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:22 am INXG is Ireland domiciled. As a US citizen you want to avoid holding this, and also any and every other fund and ETF that is not US domiciled.
Thanks Ted. If you remember, this will be in my wife's account, who is a UK resident.
by hackingdragon
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Re: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

Inflation linked bonds *track* inflation by paying inflation + X%. Unfortunately, in these new times, X can be negative. That's the price for paying for inflation protection. I suppose that means the market is expecting inflation to be 3% or something. (To confirm this, go on the Bank of England si...
by hackingdragon
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF
Replies: 29
Views: 1971

Trouble understanding yield for INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF

I'm a bit confused about the yield I would be getting if I were to buy this ETF, INXG - iShares £ Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF Which of the yields would be closest to what I would receive? Distribution Yield = .93% Weighted Avg Coupon = .67% Flat yield = .61% Weighted Avg YTM Yield to Maturity (YTM)...
by hackingdragon
Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
Replies: 31
Views: 5210

Re: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering

I think it might be worthwhile to just set this speech in full http://johncbogle.com/speeches/JCB_Morningstar_6-02.pdf as a forum-wide auto-reply whenever anyone says they're considering tilting. Thanks for sharing the paper. It was an interesting read. I enjoyed the Caveat Emptor at the end: "...
by hackingdragon
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2986

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

Great description. That's really helpful. Thanks!
by hackingdragon
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2986

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

The main difference is that the bond naturally grows shorter in duration over time, whereas using most bond funds you'd need to combine two funds to match that same sort of change to match your (presumably) decreasing investment horizon. Sorry, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that. L...
by hackingdragon
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2986

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

And besides, intermediate and short term bonds are MORE risky to an investor with a long-term investment goal than long term bonds are. Yes, that is true. Now, do you get the same type of long-term protection by buying a fund and holding long-term or is that only with the actual bond themselves? So...
by hackingdragon
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
Replies: 31
Views: 5210

The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering

An interesting chart from the economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/19/the-age-old-strategy-of-buying-cheap-shares-is-faltering https://i.imgur.com/KK5Ubne.png Some quotes from AQR: According to AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, the price-to-book ratio of the most exp...
by hackingdragon
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 928

Re: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds

happenstance wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:48 pm Those who already tilt to SCV then may not want to incorporate REITs in addition because of the higher correlations.
Yes, I agree. However, can't the reverse also be true? We can use REITs as way to tilt to SCV (for whatever non-financial reason like ESG or something)?
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2986

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

Since rates are already so low, would it be good to tilt towards intermediate and short term bonds? Intermediate treasury bonds provide a hedge during market drops and good protection against unexpected deflation. Long term treasuries seem to be too risky. I don't know if this is market timing or ju...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 928

Re: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds

I am not sure that is a thing, the 60/40 combination of SCV/HY for REIT, because there are any number of combinations like that you can use to come up as replacement for something. That combination was put forward by Peter Mladina in his paper "Real Estate Betas and the Implications for Asset ...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 928

Re: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds

There is a corporate credit risk premium, otherwise no one would buy them. Credit risk is one of the two factors of bond returns, the other being Term risk (interest rate). Now, there may not have been one during any specific period because of declining rates boosting Treasuries or defaults dilutin...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]

Thanks for your comments TedSwippet. They have been most helpful.
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My four fund portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 1067

Re: My four fund portfolio

At age 31, you dont need BND/TIP.. Buy just VTI and VXUS (2 funds enough)...OR I would buy 10-20% VUG also.. :) I don't see investing in bonds as necessarily being something about age. I think there are good diversification benefits for them. As Swensen argues: Investors give up expected return to ...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 928

REIT vs 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds

I see some research that it would be better to invest in 60% small-cap value stocks and 40% high-yield bonds instead of REITs. The reason is that this 60/40 combination gives you the same factor exposure as REITs without the idiosyncratic risk of real estate. Ben Felix has a great write-up about tha...
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]

So, I guess I should update the question then.This will be in my wife's account which will mixed between taxable and tax-free ISA. She has no other investments and no debt. Would this still be a good diversification strategy?
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]

Oh wow, I did not know that. My wife came across a windfall, and I thought I was being smart by splitting it up across two ISA accounts. She is not a US citizen, so might as well keep investments in her account.
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]

Thanks, I updated my original post with the relevant information.
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Diversification beyond SRI ETF

Hi LadyGeek,

Thank you. US citizen living in the UK. I didn't think my question was UK specific.
by hackingdragon
Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Diversification beyond SRI ETF [US ex-pat in UK]

Hi everyone, My investment philosophy involves investing in sustainable investment ETFs. The ETF that most closely aligns with my values is iShares MSCI World SRI UCITS ETF ( SUSW ). However, this ETF only holds shares in 426 companies. I was thinking that maybe adding other sector ETFs that hold co...