Search found 2888 matches

by technovelist
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6636
Views: 1432272

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have a very dear friend who has lost in the hundred thousands in XIV. It's closing forever on I think February 23rd. It's in his IRA so can't write off the loss. I knew his broker was a high flying guy. I didn't want to be too nosy so I didn't ask what percent of his portfolio or actual number of...
by technovelist
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 5075

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

Just 100%? What wimps! Don't they know that being 200% equities gives you even more gains?

Note: don't try this at home, kids!
by technovelist
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6636
Views: 1432272

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will. I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week. Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have be...
by technovelist
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1564

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

Couple of questions since I'm kind of ignorant on gold: My understanding is that you can't take physical possession of gold held in an IRA--is that correct? If so, what would be the key differences between this setup vs. buying an gold ETF (BAR costs .2%/yr. for example)? Correct, you can't take ph...
by technovelist
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

Every plan has risks. The question is what risks you want to take. In your plan the risks include the possibility that equities don't return 5%. And can you actually buy 30-year CDs? I didn't know they were available. You also aren't including any taxes in that 5% return. With an SPIA, the main ris...
by technovelist
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

...With an SPIA, the main risk is that inflation reduces the value of what you get, but then that affects your CDs as well (although not the equity account, at least to the same extent)... The last time I checked, The Principal is still writing CPI-indexed SPIAs. And many companies write SPIAs in w...
by technovelist
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

Every plan has risks. The question is what risks you want to take. In your plan the risks include the possibility that equities don't return 5%. And can you actually buy 30-year CDs? I didn't know they were available. You also aren't including any taxes in that 5% return. With an SPIA, the main ris...
by technovelist
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1564

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

Technovelist: Do you know anything about the financial stability of Gold Star Trust? What are your rights if the company goes bankrupt? I would suggest you look up the Perth Mint in Australia. They are owned by a state( Western Australia) which has a AA+ rating. You can buy it unallocated or alloca...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

Disclaimer: I love annuities in principle, but i remain very, very skeptical about them in practice. For one the insurance company can pack up it annuity liability at any time into a subsidiary and spin it off along with its obligations. In spirit that is what Metropolitan did with Brighthouse. Not...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24060

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

The main concern I have is something I'll call the Beatles Effect. The Beatles are generally considered the greatest rock band in history, but they have been given this reputation almost entirely from their own cohort. It's unclear if future generations will have the same use for the Beatles. In an...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

Disclaimer: I love annuities in principle, but i remain very, very skeptical about them in practice. For one the insurance company can pack up it annuity liability at any time into a subsidiary and spin it off along with its obligations. In spirit that is what Metropolitan did with Brighthouse. Not...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Immediate Annuity
Replies: 20
Views: 1941

Re: Immediate Annuity

Get some actual quotations on some actual SPIAs. That may be harder than you'd expect, as my experience is that it is like pulling teeth to get an insurance agent to give you one; they've told me they'd be "glad to," then sent me literature on variable annuities and never did get around sending the...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1564

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

Angelus359 wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:04 am
Gold has been a terrible speculation for a loooong time

It's actually better in a taxable account because you can deduct the losses...
I bought quite a bit in 1998/9 at around $300.

I don't consider that a "terrible speculation", but obviously everyone can have different definitions for that.
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1564

Gold IRA with pretty low costs

In case anyone is interested in holding a significant amount of physical gold in an IRA, this trust company has low costs (by non-Boglehead standards, anyway :mrgreen:). Their yearly fees come to 20 basis points, all in, for accounts over $100,000. https://www.goldstartrust.com/Services/PreciousMeta...
by technovelist
Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 25
Views: 2379

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I guess those who use the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio own gold - looks like he suggests 25% of one's portfolio should be in gold :mrgreen: Then 25% in the US total stock market, 25% in US long term Treasury bonds, and 25 % in US Treasury bills, at least that's what these articles say on our Bo...
by technovelist
Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24060

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

Pandemics aside, I'm beginning to wonder if the secret to investing is to keep throwing money at the next potential big thing until you find the one that sticks. I have a friend who has made 10X his initial investment in crypto. Told me to get into it shortly after Bitcoin started to climb but I di...
by technovelist
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10929

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

So I finally watched the excellent BBC video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRxL2GKDU5E , and realized something I hadn't known before. At this point there is a huge investment in mining hardware, infrastructure, facilities etc. that, according to the video, is specialized for bitcoin . They can'...
by technovelist
Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24060

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

For what it's worth, this is a good thread. It's good and prudent to honestly ask yourself and consider how you might be wrong. My own thought on this are two points addressed above. 1. Having all your assets at Vanguard. Esp for large accounts. I guess if Vanguard fails, the whole system is kaput....
by technovelist
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1516

Re: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds

This is entirely unsurprising.

Just look at the spike in death rates during the highest testosterone time of life for men, namely from 16 to 25.

It's caused by risky behavior.
by technovelist
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24060

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

- prolonged stagflation crushing both stocks and bonds - absence of asset class diversification outside stocks and bonds - buy and hold may not give adequate recovery in unusually long down turn I think about the above sometimes. Clearly, a classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio should see more severe ...
by technovelist
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accountant Recommends doing Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 64
Views: 5575

Re: Accountant Recommends doing Whole Life Insurance

Beware of Whole Life salesmen. Horrible horrible horrible products. There is NO reason to buy Whole life. The only people that suggest these horrible products are the people that sell them (and make their boat payment) and those that failed elementary math. For 99.9% of the population, I agree. For...
by technovelist
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Does anyone see this as not being a blatantly obvious bubble ? You have digital nothing inflating the price of another digital nothing. I’m sorry, I meant “cryptocurrency”. I just read a thread from another forum about “diversifying cryptos” and I just don’t get it. No, you don't get it. This time ...
by technovelist
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system. May we never see its like again. I...
by technovelist
Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how to choose mangoes?
Replies: 23
Views: 1476

Re: how to choose mangoes?

The organic mangoes I buy at Costco are generally already soft and ripe when I buy them. They last for at least a week after that, longer in the refrigerator.
by technovelist
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system. May we never see its like again. I...
by technovelist
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rule of 55 is it official?
Replies: 50
Views: 9293

Re: Rule of 55 is it official?

Sorry but the age-55-rule is not available in all 401(k) plans. The IRS allows it, but many plans do not implement it. So it turns out that one cannot really get advice about this rule of 55 from an internet forum. One has to check with their own plan administrator and the plan documents themselves...
by technovelist
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

2008-9 was an existential crisis in financial markets, and the worst the developed world had seen since 1929-31. It was an Emerging Market crash but applied to 2 of the G8 economies & financial systems, with collateral damage throughout the world financial system. May we never see its like again. I...
by technovelist
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 39
Views: 5706

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

... Extending your link to include 30 SCV/70 10-Year-T If you want gold like protection, then foreign currencies can provide that just as well, UK SCV for instance provides both SCV and gold like (via FX) elements combined into one. https://s18.postimg.org/n8vckd855/US-30-70-using-uk-scv-for-stock....
by technovelist
Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 39
Views: 5706

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

Alexa9 wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:47 am
Cash is trash. So are gold and long term bonds IMHO.
Three fund with a small value tilt is about as fancy as I get.
How did you do in 2008?
by technovelist
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-go-true paywall Does the author have any evidence, or is it based on assumptions? It's actually free to sign up, not a real paywall. But anyway, here's the basic argument. Tether limited runs bitfinex, a large cryptocurrency exchange. Tether ...
by technovelist
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

2008 was a financial panic, but not an unprecedented one, and putting things in perspective a little bit made things pretty easy to deal with. Better man then me. I found it extremely stressful, but since I was young (still think I am) I knew it didn't matter in the long run. I would say those that...
by technovelist
Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

No, it is a problem with bitcoin, because if the people who run Tether are using their freshly printed "money" to buy bitcoin, that can drive the price of bitcoin up to unsustainable levels. The same would be true of any asset that can be purchased with "money" that can be produced in unlimited sup...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

That's funny that people see the rise of stocks as a reason to buy them. I find it much harder stay invested in stocks now, when they are flying high, then after they have crashed and are cheap. I am staying the course, but this overpriced market is testing me. :greedy You are very unusual. Almost ...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Tether, Bitcoin, ... , I use my credit card, get reward points, converted them into cash, and went on with my life with currency that is actually able to be used Can you explain the appeal of converting actual money into “cryptocurrency”? Serious request, I’m really trying to understand why this cr...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

The paper says that trading in cryptos is done OTC. Not through a regulated exchange. No regulation. :idea: :?: I am left wondering if bitcoin prices we see quoted are real. I'm pretty sure they are fake, driven by "Tether", which appears to be totally fraudulent, if this is correct: https://www.re...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

The paper says that trading in cryptos is done OTC. Not through a regulated exchange. No regulation. :idea: :?: I am left wondering if bitcoin prices we see quoted are real. I'm pretty sure they are fake, driven by "Tether", which appears to be totally fraudulent, if this is correct: https://www.re...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I'm shocked. Shocked! :shock: Shocked to learn that there is Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem Abstract We identify and analyze the impact of suspicious trading activity (STA) on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange between February and November 2013. We discuss two distinct STA periods ...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can Roth conversions count as RMDs?
Replies: 27
Views: 2040

Re: Can Roth conversions count as RMDs?

If you only had a small amount of space to do either a Roth IRA conversion at 12% tax or sell funds in taxable at 0% LTCG, which would be the priority? If you plan properly it might be possible to avoid taxes entirely in later years. Given that possibility, 0% is better than 12%, so I would do the ...
by technovelist
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 114
Views: 10929

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Honestly I think the biggest downfall won't be the currencies themselves, but rather the exchanges they are traded on, namely the rampant use of Tether. Tether (USDT) is supposed to be backed 1:1 with USD. Except the terms state they owe you nothing for the Tethers owned (in fact you cannot exchang...
by technovelist
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal tax estimator that includes Social Security income?
Replies: 21
Views: 2678

Re: Federal tax estimator that includes Social Security income?

Taxact's tax calculator (under the "Next Year" tab) does that, but so far has not been updated with 2018 tax rates and brackets. Thanks, that's what I was looking for. I guess I'll have to wait until they update it. Resuscitating this old thread to report that Taxact has suspended the tax calculato...
by technovelist
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Cash Out my NML Whole Life Insurance?
Replies: 45
Views: 3519

Re: Should I Cash Out my NML Whole Life Insurance?

Hey, a company ripped your parents off by selling you this whole life junk and now let's give this company a chance to try and sell you some more higher priced products. Term life should be shopped around thru any online or independent broker. Do not spend one second working with these scam artists...
by technovelist
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Cash Out my NML Whole Life Insurance?
Replies: 45
Views: 3519

Re: Should I Cash Out my NML Whole Life Insurance?

Why is it crazy to buy more life insurance 10 or 20 years in the future? :confused The reason buyers are motivated to pay for limited level priced insurance is because the household cash flow is stressed with other needs competing for money. Later in life when you're making more money than you've e...
by technovelist
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?
Replies: 184
Views: 21438

Re: Anyone disenchanted with retirement?

There was also a sense of waste of abilities, and lack of satisfaction from a purely hedonistic/consumerist type of existence. I could have volunteered, but then why not do what I'm really good at and trained for, and go back to contributing through work? I think this is a very interesting question...
by technovelist
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Almost a pathological fear of debt, to my detriment?
Replies: 79
Views: 5214

Re: Almost a pathological fear of debt, to my detriment?

I don't have a fear of debt. I have had a mortgage most of my life (two different houses). However, I no longer have a mortgage because I paid it off earlier this year. In fact I have no debt of any kind at this point, other than whatever balances are on my credit cards, all of which will be paid of...
by technovelist
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

wow , in the future we wont need money at all... thats creepy! Bitcoin isn't money? Or did you mean simply no cash, just plastic? Not sure where USA is on this, but in the UK "touch and pay" chip credit and debit cards are big. And having sworn I'd never use it, I use it (credit card) that way all ...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]
Replies: 34
Views: 3181

Re: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]

Has anyone been there? Your thoughts on it. We are going with Tauck on Ponant Le Boreal. My wife and I have been there. It was unbelievably beautiful. Here are some of her pictures: https://www.flickr.com/photos/mothernature/sets/72157623350556279 Which cruise line/ship? RM Star Princess.
by technovelist
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28012

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I thought it might be fun to look at what https://coinmarketcap.com/ looked like in the past https://web.archive.org/web/20130701000000*/https://coinmarketcap.com/ The earliest page is from May 9, 2013 # Name Market Cap Price 1 Bitcoin $ 1,245,619,548 $ 111.87 2 Litecoin $ 59,056,771 $ 3.38 3 PPCoi...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]
Replies: 34
Views: 3181

Re: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]

The one thing that worries us, at our ages, is how far it would be in Antarctica should there be a really serious medical situation. OTOH, it's rather unlikely that "something" would happen right then. But still, it does give us pause... I believe when we went the cruise line demanded that we have ...
by technovelist
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]
Replies: 34
Views: 3181

Re: Antarctica [anyone traveled there?]

BrewOx wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:45 am
Has anyone been there? Your thoughts on it. We are going with Tauck on Ponant Le Boreal.
My wife and I have been there. It was unbelievably beautiful.

Here are some of her pictures: https://www.flickr.com/photos/mothernat ... 3350556279
by technovelist
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: COBRA alternative for 1 month? (it's $2,400 per month!)
Replies: 69
Views: 4080

Re: COBRA alternative for 1 month? (it's $2,400 per month!)

I also have used the retroactive coverage provisions of COBRA to avoid paying large premiums for a short time.

It's about as clear as anything in the health insurance industry ever is.