Search found 3574 matches

by technovelist
Fri May 26, 2023 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . . Yes, I should have said 14th or later. I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997. I guess the SS doesn’t always follow its stated schedule. I do note that some banks accelerate deposits by a day or two. Perhaps technovelist is drawing spousal benefits based on his wife's earnings r...
by technovelist
Thu May 25, 2023 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

rkhusky wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 6:15 pm
ehh wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 2:31 pm
rkhusky wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 2:19 pm Those on SS after 1997 should see their check on the 14th.
SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .
Yes, I should have said 14th or later.
I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997.
by technovelist
Thu May 25, 2023 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Does the prospectus for VUSXX state that it is 100% safe under any condition? I don't use MM funds except for brief settlement stays so I have to confess, that was the one fund whose prospectus I have not read. I highly doubt it would say that, but what bothers me is that I don't really feel like there is any totally "safe" option for me in this bizarre scenario. It bothers me too. But it's life. Feelings of security are mostly recency bias. As W. C. Fields may have said, "The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." The whole thing about black swans is that, let's say there are a thousand of them, but each has only a probability of 1/1000th. Then there's a 60% chance you wi...
by technovelist
Thu May 25, 2023 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

I’m sure this has been discussed, but wanted to ask. I’m think of moving my money from fidelity treasury money market to their cash account. Would this be prudent or paranoid? Would it even be helpful in the event of a default? What's the cash account invested in? In other words, when it's sitting in cash, what is fidelity doing with the money? The problem is that everything is connected. If the supposedly safest bonds in the world suddenly have a real risk of not being paid in a timely fashion, the whole system is fundamentally disrupted. Even just the threat of that sort of disruption could have serious and lasting consequences. It's all the more disappointing because it's a "self-inflicted" wound. It's one of those scenarios, ...
by technovelist
Tue May 23, 2023 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

So for actionable things we can actually do in case something bad happens... Should we pay off credit card bills due in early June in late May instead? In case money market funds break the buck or there are liquidity issues? That way we won't get dinged with any credit card interest because our funds are locked up or inaccessible? I keep reading about doom and gloom possibilities, but can't figure out what I should actually do to prepare. I'm heavy in short term money market funds at Fidelity with all my cash, but no idea if I should do something else. That's fine except that FDLXX has a high ER so I don't keep that much there. Instead I use 52-week T-bills for most of my cash. Which I guess shows how concerned I am about the debt ceiling ...
by technovelist
Sat May 20, 2023 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?
Replies: 169
Views: 12885

Re: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?

I have a friend who had a "rental portfolio" of several houses that he had bought and then rented out instead of selling when he got transferred to a different city by his employer.

One of the best days of his life was when he unloaded the last of them.

I own my home outright but would never buy real estate as an investment.
by technovelist
Sun May 07, 2023 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

I hate to give up my best secrets, but . . . . In a true global collapse scenario where fleeing is not an option, my plan is to try to buy up (or loot if necessary) as many dried spices and sealed spicey sauces and such as a I can before everyone really understands what is happening, and then use my culinary skills to operate a popular eating place. Spices are the sort of thing which depend on cheap international trade, and historically were way, way more valuable in the absence of such trade routes. They are also high in value density and easily stored, and then easily divided and sold in small units (like, as a small portion in a bowl of tasty soup). Why wait and loot? I'd guess it wouldn't cost more than a couple of thousand USD to buy ...
by technovelist
Sat May 06, 2023 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

Northern Flicker wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 4:23 pm Smaller sovereign dumps have depressed gold prices for a few years, and if the depressed prices coincide with the out of control inflation then the hedge failed.
I'm pretty sure such a dump, in the context of dollar hyperinflation, would not depress the purchasing power of gold anywhere near as much as the purchasing power of the dollar went down.

In other words, maybe you wouldn't get 100% protection in purchasing power but you would do much better than holding dollars.
by technovelist
Sat May 06, 2023 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to spend more money - request for help regarding an article
Replies: 116
Views: 13543

Re: How to spend more money - request for help regarding an article

ram wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 2:24 pm
Allan Roth wrote: Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:08 pm I'm doing some research for an article on how to s=spend more money and wanted to solicit some views from the Bogleheads forum

Any thoughts on the subject, especially on how to get someone to spend more money, would be very much appreciated. Thank you!
Concierge medicine.

If you have money why wait 2 months to get an appointment with a doctor who has a panel of 2000 patient which means he has about 60 minutes/year to care for you which boils down to about 15 to 20 minutes/year of face to face time/year (on average)
+1
by technovelist
Sat May 06, 2023 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

A job as a congressperson or senator, so you can vote yourself a wage that keeps up with a hyperinflationary cost of living. Paid by who? Would the IRS collapse in hyperinflation? Taxes received in real terms probably would be affected. The govt could of course dump gold from Ft Knox to raise hard currency, which is why gold is a speculative hedge for hyperinflation. A commodities fund likely would be best. Interestingly, it appears that the US monetary gold is split between Ft. Knox and the NY Fed Federal Reserve vault: " The New York Fed acts as the guardian and custodian of the gold on behalf of account holders, which include the U.S. government, " (https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/goldvault.html) Anyway, I doubt that th...
by technovelist
Sat May 06, 2023 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

Physical gold. It's held value for thousands of years, with the first coins minted around 700 BC. Yes, for capital amounts, mostly after the crisis is over. Flashing a gold coin during a crisis is probably very dangerous and even a very small gold coin is way too much for daily purchases during a hyperinflation. For such uses, if you are in the US, "junk" silver dimes and quarters would probably be good. A gold coin is just a high value currency unit, a one ounce coin being comparable of recent to a 2000 dollar bill note. For daily purchases you'd be inclined to exchange that for smaller denomination currency, packets of cigarettes, bars or soap ... whatever might be the common 'currency' of the time, and likely they'd be local '...
by technovelist
Sat May 06, 2023 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

My recollection of hyperinflation in Russia in early 1990s that a half liter vodka bottle(s) was a useful unit of currency to pay plumbers and for other services. Packs of popular cigarettes were used for barter. But cash dollars were supreme. People were ready to pay premium above official exchange rates, just to have reliable savings. Gold was not that widely used because of shortage of coins and lack of familiarity. Paper dollars are easy to conceal, take little physical space, can be taken everywhere, easily exchanged into other currencies, not being a subject of confiscatory currency exchanges historically (it is when government suddenly declares that all or some bills in circulation become null and void - yes, it did happen elsewhere...
by technovelist
Fri May 05, 2023 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Hopefully this is the right place for this, and I apologize if I missed a similar question/answer somewhere (this thread it getting big!). What would the practical implications be for SPAXX (or any other government money fund) if we were to hit the debt ceiling without an increase? Would these funds "break the buck"? Would there be an issue redeeming shares? I'm moving everything out of money market funds and into FDIC insured accounts as well as longer term treasuries that will hopefully mature after the debt ceiling is raised. I agree with the latter but the former doesn't seem like it improves things very much. I can't imagine FDIC being very useful in the case of a Treasury default, because as I understand it, FDIC's assets a...
by technovelist
Fri May 05, 2023 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Hopefully this is the right place for this, and I apologize if I missed a similar question/answer somewhere (this thread it getting big!). What would the practical implications be for SPAXX (or any other government money fund) if we were to hit the debt ceiling without an increase? Would these funds "break the buck"? Would there be an issue redeeming shares? One of my concerns is institutional investors pulling money quickly and in large amounts if the ceiling isn't raised, causing liquidity issues in these funds. I'm not generally one to listen to the noise, but it feels a bit different this time around. Hopefully this is a permissible question, but are others moving out of government money funds and into FDIC insured accounts? ...
by technovelist
Fri May 05, 2023 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

OrangeKiwi wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:38 am
JDave wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:19 am Best asset to hold in hyperinflation? Real hyperinflation? The kind of inflation that has never happened in the USA?
Food
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vene ... SKCN1G52HA
Who is going to help you hold (defend) the asset? The best asset seems to be rights to live somewhere else and flee, but barring that, a requisite asset is being part of a capable tribe that you can trust will have your back, i.e. participating in the community.
Given that there aren't very many better places, and those few places probably aren't taking very many new residents who aren't very wealthy, the community option is probably the most practical for most people.
by technovelist
Fri May 05, 2023 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Second, what did the financials say about unrealized losses of the hold-to-mature loan portfolio? It was these unrealized losses that triggered the collapse of SVB and FRB. The mad dash of depositors out of the door only affected the speed of the colipase. I've had the chance to do a deeper dive into the financials and I think the market reaction is irrational. Out of the $40B in assets PacWest has, the vast majority of it are in loans ($28B), assets held-for-sale ($4.8B) and assets held-to-maturity ($2.3B). So, right off the bat, there's not a great deal of similarity between the portfolio profile of SVB/Signature/FRC and PacWest. PacWest has, in fact, been doing everything right, in terms of taking the conservative route as far as accoun...
by technovelist
Fri May 05, 2023 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?
Replies: 105
Views: 11455

Re: In the event of Hyperinflation, what are the best assets to hold?

Outer Marker wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 11:15 pm Physical gold. It's held value for thousands of years, with the first coins minted around 700 BC.
Yes, for capital amounts, mostly after the crisis is over.
Flashing a gold coin during a crisis is probably very dangerous and even a very small gold coin is way too much for daily purchases during a hyperinflation.
For such uses, if you are in the US, "junk" silver dimes and quarters would probably be good.
by technovelist
Thu May 04, 2023 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

I'm actually reading PacWest's financial statements right now as I'm considering an investment. It's all a little strange because from the fundamentals, things don't appear to be as bad as the stock price would suggest. It has almost double the liquid cash it needs to pay all uninsured deposits, and that's if every single uninsured deposit dollar left the bank, which seems quite unlikely. And even in this scenario, it would still have plenty of liquidity left over. I'm curious if short sellers are behind some of the sudden plunges. Western Alliance is threatening to sue the Financial Times for publishing a "categorically false" article. How could the Financial Times get it so wrong about Western Alliance exploring a sale when it ...
by technovelist
Thu May 04, 2023 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: Potential impact of U.S. debt-limit default

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek] I'll start with the customary apology if I've missed a thread already devoted to this -- along with the customary acknowledgment that none of us can predict what will happen (particularly in the case of an extraordinary and unprecedented event). But I'm looking for informed speculation from folks who know more than I do about how these things work. In the event of a default, what is the risk level likely to be for individual Treasurys that one is planning to hold to maturity? Is there any reason to think that money would be safer in a name-brand (e.g., Fidelity or Vanguard) money-market fund? Would it matter whether it's a government MM fund? Of course there is no such thing as a riskless investme...
by technovelist
Tue May 02, 2023 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: Potential impact of U.S. debt-limit default

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek] I'll start with the customary apology if I've missed a thread already devoted to this -- along with the customary acknowledgment that none of us can predict what will happen (particularly in the case of an extraordinary and unprecedented event). But I'm looking for informed speculation from folks who know more than I do about how these things work. In the event of a default, what is the risk level likely to be for individual Treasurys that one is planning to hold to maturity? Is there any reason to think that money would be safer in a name-brand (e.g., Fidelity or Vanguard) money-market fund? Would it matter whether it's a government MM fund? Of course there is no such thing as a riskless investme...
by technovelist
Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a $2M home?
Replies: 70
Views: 11088

Re: Can we afford a $2M home?

HornedToad wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:37 am This is almost a joke. You make $1m/yr, have over $2m available and could buy it for cash if you wanted.

What you need to do no matter what is diversify away from employer stock and figure out how much risk you want: rental properties, home loan, stock etx

As long as you both are going to keep working you are fine
That may not be up to them. Layoffs are intensifying, especially in tech.
Of course I agree with the point about diversification.
by technovelist
Sun Apr 23, 2023 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wsj article: How you can grab a 0% tax rate
Replies: 43
Views: 8709

Re: wsj article: How you can grab a 0% tax rate

The only thing I would change about the t-shirt is to replace "strange legal maneuver" to "one weird trick". :mrgreen:
I've done that for quite a few years but last year and this year I've had unplanned income that pushes me out of the range where it is possible. Hopefully I'll be back to it next year.
by technovelist
Thu Apr 20, 2023 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w
Replies: 23
Views: 3413

Re: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w

No. Treasury Bills are special in that all of the income therefrom is taxed only at maturity (or sale, if you don't hold them that long). OID doesn't apply in this case. Generally, but not universally. Ok, but do you have a cite for a case where that isn't true? I can't find any information on that situation. Did you not read the section of Pub 550 to which I referred? With respect to a taxpayer's prior election to recognize market discount currently (absent subsequent consent of the commissioner to revoke): google "section 1278(b) election" and Revenue Procedure 92-67. WRT other exceptions to the general treatment, there is a bulleted list of other situations in the section of pub 550 that I Identified afterward in my post (the ...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w
Replies: 23
Views: 3413

Re: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w

ofckrupke wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:31 am
technovelist wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:09 am No. Treasury Bills are special in that all of the income therefrom is taxed only at maturity (or sale, if you don't hold them that long). OID doesn't apply in this case.
Generally, but not universally.
Ok, but do you have a cite for a case where that isn't true? I can't find any information on that situation.
technovelist wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:09 am As for other short-term obligations whose maturity is in the year after acquisition, a number of circumstances can compel inclusion of accrued interest in income for both years if the holding period straddles. These are listed in IRS pub 550 at the beginning of the section on Discount on Short-Term Obligations.
Sure, but I was referring solely to t-bills.
by technovelist
Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Fidelity and State Street Push To Make 401(k)s More Like Pensions
Replies: 73
Views: 9827

Re: WSJ: Fidelity and State Street Push To Make 401(k)s More Like Pensions

I know quite a lot about annuities, having been (at different times in the past) both an actuarial student and a licensed life insurance salesperson. Fixed immediate annuities would be an excellent investment for lifetime income except for one very unfortunate characteristic. Namely, they are nominal, because the life insurance companies aren't willing to take the risk of unexpectedly high inflation. If they aren't willing to do that, should an individual investor? Probably not. Life insurance companies wouldn't be taking the risk of high inflation. They would be offloading that. How would they do that? And if they could, why did they all discontinue those products? The problem is that people aren't willing to pay to protect against that r...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w
Replies: 23
Views: 3413

Re: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w

Got it, 42 basis points is rough for a fund that just holds t-bills, I'll agree with that. What about something like iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV)? Low ER and should be widely available. Seems to be only treasuries and no repos. I'm not really understanding the tax/income timing thing. Tbills don't have interest payments, right? They are basically short term zero coupons in that regard. If you buy a 52-week Tbill now in 2023, would you not have OID income for 2023, reflecting the "interest" earned through the end of the year? No. Treasury Bills are special in that all of the income therefrom is taxed only at maturity (or sale, if you don't hold them that long). OID doesn't apply in this case. "The interest earne...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Fidelity and State Street Push To Make 401(k)s More Like Pensions
Replies: 73
Views: 9827

Re: WSJ: Fidelity and State Street Push To Make 401(k)s More Like Pensions

I was able to get around the paywall by reading the article on Apple News. An interesting bit in the article was a comment from both Vanguard and Fidelity that theY didn’t believe annuities belonged in target date funds. It was also noted they were the largest providers of target date funds. On some level I think I agree. Mostly because without a universal agreement on the process, I don’t see how they would work with the portability of a 401k. In the state street instance, if I’m 45 or over and then change jobs to a company which doesn’t use those target funds now I’ve reduced what my potential payout could be. I agree annuities should probably be a part of more individual’s retirement plans, but I think there would need to be more change...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w
Replies: 23
Views: 3413

Re: Check your Fidelity autorolls for 4w and 8w

Honest question, is pruchasing individual treasuries just a fun hobby for people? (Or a chance to do a little market timing on interest rate / yield curve changes?) Because having to worry about this type of issue just sounds so painful when Treasury money market funds exist and do this for you at a very low cost. All this is doing is avoiding the 9 basis point expense ratio on Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX), right? Because the MMF can buy the same Tbills at auction as you can, so any rate difference you are seeing is either due to the fund costs (ER), or the fact that auction rates are forward looking, while MMF 7-day yield quotes are backwards looking. Or am I wrong here? I have purchased 52-week bills to push the interest i...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Beensabu wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:05 pm
technovelist wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:26 pm There's another money that has value all around the world and can be bought in (relatively) small increments. It has a much longer track record than the US Dollar and is widely held by central banks.
"Gold" is a family friendly word and discussion of it hasn't been banned here. You can say it.
Yeah, I know. I'm just surprised at the notion that there's no feasible way to hedge against the loss of the dollar as reserve currency.
by technovelist
Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 128356

Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

MathWizard wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:57 pm If the US defaults, are FDIC guarantees and even dollars safe?
They are both backed by the full faith and credit of the US federal government.

I'm not sure what we can do financially. I do agree that the fallout would
be worse than just treasuries.
The only strategy is to prepare like you would for a recession. The
alternatives are ones I do not want to contemplate.
There's another money that has value all around the world and can be bought in (relatively) small increments. It has a much longer track record than the US Dollar and is widely held by central banks.
by technovelist
Sun Apr 16, 2023 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency Markets?
Replies: 10
Views: 930

Re: Currency Markets?

I am not at all familiar with how the currency markets operate. That said, sometimes when I have travelled outside the US for vacation, I have looked up the strength of the US vis a vis the local currency and used that as a guide for the type of lodging I chose or amount of shopping I did at the time. I am seeking to travel outside the US this coming winter. I am not sure yet where I want to go for warmth & sunshine. So, there's the crazy question - speaking out of ignorance - is there no way to predict what a particular currency will be holding at several months down the road? I assume (?) its unpredictable similar to the stock market. Nevertheless, are there any "leading indicators"? Thanks Generally speaking, the lower the...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 16, 2023 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency Markets?
Replies: 10
Views: 930

Re: Currency Markets?

I am not at all familiar with how the currency markets operate. That said, sometimes when I have travelled outside the US for vacation, I have looked up the strength of the US vis a vis the local currency and used that as a guide for the type of lodging I chose or amount of shopping I did at the time. I am seeking to travel outside the US this coming winter. I am not sure yet where I want to go for warmth & sunshine. So, there's the crazy question - speaking out of ignorance - is there no way to predict what a particular currency will be holding at several months down the road? I assume (?) its unpredictable similar to the stock market. Nevertheless, are there any "leading indicators"? Thanks Generally speaking, the lower the...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 16, 2023 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a $2M home?
Replies: 70
Views: 11088

Re: Can we afford a $2M home?

I would absolutely not do it. There is no reason to assume that tech layoffs are even close to being over, considering we haven't even officially entered a recession yet.

Just rent a big house. Then you're not on the hook for a gigantic mortgage for decades and will be able to downsize if/when one of you gets laid off.
by technovelist
Sat Apr 15, 2023 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security “Tax Torpedo”
Replies: 40
Views: 6513

Re: Social Security “Tax Torpedo”

"Interestingly, this is not a problem for folks with big tax deferred account with other income above $80k from withdrawal, Roth conversion or RMD. As they easily passed over the tax hump, next bump to worry about is the IRMAA cliff." Cliffs. There are lots of IRMAA cliffs. I remarried in 2018 and my wife signed up for Medicare in 2020. When she saw what her IRMAA payments were she looked at me and said, "Why do you have so much money? You should pay all of these." My only comeback was to remind her that she had a pension too, and SSA at FRA as of last year. And now my mandatory RMDs begin. I vividly recall the heated discussions when SSA retirement was first taxed. My parents, aunts, uncles, neighbors, etc. were incens...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 13, 2023 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

A narrow bank could. I have seen you advocate for a narrow bank several times in this thread. How would a narrow bank make enough profit given the recent interest rate environment (T Bills paying 0.15% in 2020)? Fee income? Do you believe depositors would be willing to pay fees as opposed to depositing into a conventional commercial/retail bank that would not charge fees/lower fees? There used to be banks like that, up to about 30 years ago. I know because I banked with one of them. They charged a (small) fee to hold your money if you wanted it back on demand. If you wanted to earn interest, they would take a time deposit and lend it out for the same (or a shorter) period than you had deposited it for, and share the resulting interest paym...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 13, 2023 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

A narrow bank could. I have seen you advocate for a narrow bank several times in this thread. How would a narrow bank make enough profit given the recent interest rate environment (T Bills paying 0.15% in 2020)? Fee income? Do you believe depositors would be willing to pay fees as opposed to depositing into a conventional commercial/retail bank that would not charge fees/lower fees? There used to be banks like that, up to about 30 years ago. I know because I banked with one of them. They charged a (small) fee to hold your money if you wanted it back on demand. If you wanted to earn interest, they would take a time deposit and lend it out for the same (or a shorter) period than you had deposited it for, and share the resulting interest paym...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 12, 2023 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

I don’t think SVB primary issue was losing 25% of its deposit base. Its the fact that it was insolvent. Yeah, the withdrawal of deposits is like the tide going out, showing who is and ins’t naked. That isn't right. For sure SVB's "insolvency" was caused by the bank run. SVB didn't have bad loans causing a loss of assets. They had very safe Treasury bond assets which had a positive book value but a negative market value because of the rapid Fed rate hikes. The rapid withdrawals forced liquidating Treasuries at a loss. If there were no bank run, they could have held their Treasuries to maturity with no loss. The management failure was allowing their deposits to get so far out of whack that they had 90% uninsured above the FDIC limi...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

With todays technology you absolutely could. Not doing so is a policy choice, for good or ill To be fair, the narrow banking suggesting is interesting. However it would be a massive and radical overhaul of our financial system. We are not talking about waving some pixy dust over a problem, but throwing the baby out with the bathwater and starting with a clean sheet of paper. This choice is harder and risker than you suggest. It would be big for sure. Not saying it wouldn’t. But that’s a far cry from saying there are no options Of course we could start but just allowing some narrow banks to exist. AFAIK though the Fed has shown zero interest in them and has so far not allowed them to have access to a Fed reserve “account” (or whatever it’s ...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 2482
Views: 212016

Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]

Copied from another thread because I think it's relevant here: the Treasury temporarily insured money market mutual funds for a year following the collapse of the Reserve Primary fund in 2008, in order to stabilize the money market mutual fund industry. The program then ended and money market mutual funds again were uninsured. So there's a history of temporary insurance when needed to prevent runs, and I imagine the FDIC's unlimited insurance will be temporary, too; if not, there are eventually sure to be gross abuses. I incorrectly remembered that it was the FDIC that insured money market mutual funds, but it wasn't. Crisis and Response: An FDIC History, 2008–2013 led me to United States: Temporary Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."
Replies: 248
Views: 26816

Re: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."

Might have missed it, but don't recall anyone suggesting a return to the gold standard as before (directly pegged) as that has its own failings such as periodic disconnect/resets being required. Even in the present era there are elements of a gold standard being applied, just not directly, more of a guide objective. Multiple prior Fed Reserve Chair's have alluded to such, where its recognized that when the disconnect is permitted to drift too far that bad things tend to happen. Funny you should mention it, but Texas legislators are proposing creating a gold-backed digital currency: A full gold standard is probably impossible but (state) Senator Bryan Huges (R) and Representative Mark Dorazio (R) of Texas think they have found a way to brin...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 09, 2023 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."
Replies: 248
Views: 26816

Re: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."

Might have missed it, but don't recall anyone suggesting a return to the gold standard as before (directly pegged) as that has its own failings such as periodic disconnect/resets being required. Even in the present era there are elements of a gold standard being applied, just not directly, more of a guide objective. Multiple prior Fed Reserve Chair's have alluded to such, where its recognized that when the disconnect is permitted to drift too far that bad things tend to happen. Funny you should mention it, but Texas legislators are proposing creating a gold-backed digital currency: A full gold standard is probably impossible but (state) Senator Bryan Huges (R) and Representative Mark Dorazio (R) of Texas think they have found a way to brin...
by technovelist
Fri Apr 07, 2023 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."
Replies: 248
Views: 26816

Re: WSJ: "This Should Have Been a Great Year for Gold. Here’s Why It Isn’t."

I couldn't figure out how gold makes sense in my portfolio. Here's my thought process; I'm not an expert on gold. 1. It doesn't produce income and there's no contractual right to future income, like a stock or bond 2. As a collectible, it has no aesthetic value (to me) such as a fine art 3. It is not a good medium of exchange because a. it is taxed when exchanged for goods or services, and b. it has to be converted into real currency 4. It has limited use in production as a commodity Gold is valuable because 1. it is scarce, and 2. people believe it to have value. For use as a hedge, others must believe the same way you do about it when the specific scenario occurs (inflation, weakening dollar, recession, etc.) - or whatever one is using i...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 02, 2023 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?
Replies: 252
Views: 25518

Re: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?

I am earlier Gen X. I do not factor in SS at all as it will likely be gone and every penny put in since 1986 not seen. Save/Invest without that factored in and sleep better. It will likely be gone? You don't really believe that do you? Can you imagine what the US looks like one month after it's "gone" The fact that something would have horrible consequences doesn't prevent it from happening. So you really think the majority of politicians and voters will let this happen. You do realize social security is also disability? One could say “Do you really think ________” and fill in the blank with many political issues that have indeed come to fruition the last several years. I believe it is more actionable for this thread to recognize...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 02, 2023 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?
Replies: 252
Views: 25518

Re: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?

Interesting that people are posting about the social security cut that the SSA says will happen under current law. Nobody seems to be confortable about that prospect. But a number of Bogleheads are posting about how they are quite comfortable taking the self-imposed Social Security cut that they have instituted and or plan to institute by virtue of not bothering to optimize their social security planning. If you're referring to claiming before 70, then that is theoretically actuarially equivalent to waiting. I know it probably isn't in reality, but it may be close enough not to matter. In my case, I claimed as soon as I could because I was unemployed and didn't want to run down my savings as fast as I would have had to do with no income. I...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 01, 2023 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills
Replies: 171
Views: 26645

Re: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills

Artsdoctor wrote: Sat Apr 01, 2023 9:45 am
watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 01, 2023 1:02 am
Artsdoctor wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 4:55 pm

This is excellent and you're very lucky. Although you'd think that BrokerageLink follows the flexibility of a Fidelity account, it also has various rules dependent on the employer's rules. I can choose any funds and ETFs in my BrokerageLink account (linked to my 403b) but no individual bonds. Not all BrokerageLink accounts are created equal.
I didn't know that.

I thought BrokerageLink provided full trading capabilities for all accounts that could use it.
Believe me, no one was more surprised than me. However, a BrokerageLink account is still going to offer more flexibility so I'm thankful I have that. I don't think that it's a reason to avoid BrokerageLink.
I was pretty happy with it when I had it at a previous job.
by technovelist
Sat Apr 01, 2023 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?
Replies: 252
Views: 25518

Re: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?

As a millennial, this sucks. We've contributed to social security for our entire lives to now "hold the bag." Right when we're starting to become eligible to collect, funds depleted. I am earlier Gen X. I do not factor in SS at all as it will likely be gone and every penny put in since 1986 not seen. Save/Invest without that factored in and sleep better. It will likely be gone? You don't really believe that do you? Can you imagine what the US looks like one month after it's "gone" The fact that something would have horrible consequences doesn't prevent it from happening. So you really think the majority of politicians and voters will let this happen. You do realize social security is also disability? Yes, I realize ther...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 01, 2023 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?
Replies: 252
Views: 25518

Re: Are Bogleheads rational about Social Security decisions?

Johm221122 wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 11:51 pm
vanguarded wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:55 pm
Kal1981 wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:01 pm As a millennial, this sucks. We've contributed to social security for our entire lives to now "hold the bag." Right when we're starting to become eligible to collect, funds depleted.
I am earlier Gen X. I do not factor in SS at all as it will likely be gone and every penny put in since 1986 not seen. Save/Invest without that factored in and sleep better.
It will likely be gone? You don't really believe that do you?
Can you imagine what the US looks like one month after it's "gone"
The fact that something would have horrible consequences doesn't prevent it from happening.
by technovelist
Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills
Replies: 171
Views: 26645

Re: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills

for the last 10 years I expected inflation to increase dramatically. too much fiscal spending, too high debt/gdp etc. and it didnt. until it did just last year. projecting into the future, I have zero confidence in my ability to predict inflation trends into the future. so I acknowledge that there is an inflation risk, and I acknowledge that I cant quantify it...so if I cant quantify it, to what extent should I protect against it? for the last 10 years, I have kept anywhere from 50-70% of my portfolio in cash, not trusting my heady equity gains in the balance of my portfolio. made squat on cash, but didnt lose. now I am making out like a bandit, getting more than half of my targeted 7% annual overall portfolio gains the easy way. moral of ...
by technovelist
Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First
Replies: 108
Views: 13341

Re: Is It a Cardinal Sin to Withdraw from Tax Deferred First

"Which Dollars to Spend First Every Year in Retirement" by Mike Piper Video: https://youtu.be/atTp3sATI44?t=1571 Article: https://obliviousinvestor.com/which-dollars-to-spend-first-every-year-in-retirement/ I hope that helps. :D Is there software/website/service that can do the optimization for you? I'm not aware of any software that takes Mike's approach to tax-efficient spending/partial Roth conversions. Yet, Income Solver/Strategy uses a different approach to tax-efficient spending/partial Roth conversions. Which strategy is ultimately best will likely depend on impossible-to-know things like life expectancy, future inflation, future investment returns, future tax rates, etc. I've written my own program to optimize this, inclu...