Search found 3244 matches

by technovelist
Sat May 09, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $2 million dollar house pre requisites
Replies: 109
Views: 9758

Re: $2 million dollar house pre requisites

$2 million that you don't need for retirement.
by technovelist
Wed May 06, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Munis: Hold or Sell
Replies: 31
Views: 2279

Re: Munis: Hold or Sell

Sitting tight is tempting and seems like the right move when an asset is down. However, Dale's proposition of selling the munis and buying bonds in the tax advantaged account would move me towards a better long term asset allocation (especially if recession persists and/or municipal borrowers start...
by technovelist
Wed May 06, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Munis: Hold or Sell
Replies: 31
Views: 2279

Re: Munis: Hold or Sell

Sell munis and buy Treasuries. Treasuries are the only bonds backed by the printing press.
by technovelist
Sun May 03, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake
Replies: 63
Views: 9531

Re: When to sell low? Buffett sells entire airline stake

The only surprise here is that he ever bought airline stocks to begin with. His 2002 interview quote: “If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money. But seriously, the airline business has been extr...
by technovelist
Sun May 03, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach
Replies: 63
Views: 4848

Re: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach

How about the Permanent Portfolio? It is designed to handle any economic situation with much lower volatility than a stock/bond portfolio, while still allowing growth. There are plenty of threads about it here. Very interesting. Just did a quick skim of the surface on Permanent Portfolio approach. ...
by technovelist
Sun May 03, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach
Replies: 63
Views: 4848

Re: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach

How about the Permanent Portfolio? It is designed to handle any economic situation with much lower volatility than a stock/bond portfolio, while still allowing growth. There are plenty of threads about it here. Very interesting. Just did a quick skim of the surface on Permanent Portfolio approach. ...
by technovelist
Sun May 03, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach
Replies: 63
Views: 4848

Re: Deviating from "set it and forget it" investment approach

Wow I am already overwhelmed with the quality of thinking and generosity in sharing it. Much to digest but on the surface much of what has been stated really resonates and rings true. In particular, I agree that shifting towards a more conservative allocation may be an appropriate strategy. I expec...
by technovelist
Fri May 01, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

JamesJonesJrJr wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:23 am
Fixed! Thanks for letting me know about the issue.
Sure thing. Always glad to help out a fellow software developer with his bugs!
by technovelist
Fri May 01, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Who suggested that 4% was a SWR for 40 years? Bengen explicitly said that retirements longer than 30 years warranted a lower withdrawal rate, and the data clearly back that up. Now that obviously doesn't mean that an early retiree couldn't start at 4% if they were willing to accept the (at least hi...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

Depends on definition of young - in my case the extra 10 years of coverage spans ages 60 to 70... I'm not sure it should make that much of a difference how young you are if your savings and needs are the same. If you're 35 or 65 and have a middle school student planning on college, you need about 1...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

Depends on definition of young - in my case the extra 10 years of coverage spans ages 60 to 70... I'm not sure it should make that much of a difference how young you are if your savings and needs are the same. If you're 35 or 65 and have a middle school student planning on college, you need about 1...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

2) How healthy is this family. A family of 2 with multiple comorbidities is unlikely to live into their 90s. Why work even 1 extra year wasting it away if life expectancy is low. People who are very overweight, with high blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol and don't really exercise with a...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

2) How healthy is this family. A family of 2 with multiple comorbidities is unlikely to live into their 90s. Why work even 1 extra year wasting it away if life expectancy is low. People who are very overweight, with high blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol and don't really exercise with a...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Who suggested that 4% was a SWR for 40 years? Bengen explicitly said that retirements longer than 30 years warranted a lower withdrawal rate, and the data clearly back that up. Now that obviously doesn't mean that an early retiree couldn't start at 4% if they were willing to accept the (at least hi...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Isn't the 4% rule based on a 30 year retirement? It was based on a 30-year retirement, though it's not clear that most people are accounting for that fact. We can't (usually) control the date of our death, and 35 years is much closer to the average length of retirement for a couple than 30 years is...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

And what were your assumptions to get that? It is trivial to go into portfoliovisualizer and see that the 1972-1975 retirees didn't go broke for any reasonable AA (40-70% stocks) up until today. And I sort of doubt those mid and late 50s people who were making 9% real on their stock investments bet...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Those are success rates.... Ugh I misread what you said AND misspoke. You are correct. 80% is the success rate, which both the study and my independent analysis agree upon. The 80% failure rate I referred to was specifically in regard to the cohorts who retired between 1955 and 1975. I picked this ...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The Trinity study that you linked literally has an 80% failure rate in the 30-year category, the next category up from the 25-year category... Those are success rates.... Ugh I misread what you said AND misspoke. You are correct. 80% is the success rate, which both the study and my independent anal...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

In our early 30’s we each got 20 year term policies through term4sale. His: 500k, $240 Annually Hers: 500k, $210 Annually Instead of calculating a multiple of income, we looked at what we wanted the insurance to accomplish in the event of our death. Pay final expenses, pay off mortgage, fund colleg...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

That's the problem with level premium term. If you drop the policy at any point, then you've overpaid. I'm sure that this happens often (I've done it myself once) and that the insurance companies like it that way. Along with that, if you keep the policy to the expiration date you have under paid, n...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

"I'd rather spend those five or more years in retirement, which will very likely be the healthiest years of my remaining life at that point"| I certainly hope not - life can be very rewarding and healthy for a great many years , please try not to lose sight of that as your journey continues. I don'...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

I remember that back in the 1980s and 1990s, annually renewable term (ART) used to be more popular. Rates went up every year since the insured's life expectancy declined, and as long as you kept paying your premium, you did not have to show evidence of insurability. This is unlike level premium ter...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

I remember that back in the 1980s and 1990s, annually renewable term (ART) used to be more popular. Rates went up every year since the insured's life expectancy declined, and as long as you kept paying your premium, you did not have to show evidence of insurability. This is unlike level premium ter...
by technovelist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

I remember that back in the 1980s and 1990s, annually renewable term (ART) used to be more popular. Rates went up every year since the insured's life expectancy declined, and as long as you kept paying your premium, you did not have to show evidence of insurability. This is unlike level premium ter...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s
Replies: 88
Views: 3931

Re: Appropriate Term Life Terms - couple in 30s

My two cents. I would take a look at the ladder approach people are advocating. Life insurance is to replace lost income not assets. What matters is will the surviving spouse miss the income. I am 57 and have a term policy still in place and am thankful for it, BECAUSE, we are stuffing huge amounts...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12715

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

I have spent several weeks at a time in NYC and have wanted to move to the city for over a decade. Today I was interviewing for a new job, and I was asked if I would move to NYC. My immediate, gut answer was “no.” Granted if I was making seven figures and had a second home, I might consider it. I w...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12715

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

Would you and your family be happy in a rural, low cost of living area? You guys know there are actual cities in the rest of the country that are Low Cost of Living, right? You don't have to live next to a cow pasture. Not that there's anything wrong with living next to a cow pasture, of course. Th...
by technovelist
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12715

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

bugleheadd wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:21 pm

texas - high property taxes (still not as bad as places like NY/NJ though). Hot, snakes.
Also no state income taxes.
by technovelist
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12715

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

Hi, I am a hospital employed surgeon in NYC with 4 years in practice. The way this current pandemic is unfolding, I am thinking about moving to some other less dense location primarily for the health of my family and myself. Getting a new job will not be that difficult but my total compensation wil...
by technovelist
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12715

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

I lived in NYC for several years and on Long Island for about 10 years. I have now lived in Texas, first suburban Dallas/Plano and then rural East Texas. I would get out of NYC now. Even aside from the pandemic, it is very unlikely to improve and there are much nicer places to live, including where ...
by technovelist
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11400

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

I'm still 100% stocks and bought more when stocks dropped :confused If you were already 100% how could you buy more? I’m 100% stocks too not including my savings.. Oh - I can play too: "And I am 100% stocks too not including my bonds..." :) I'm 100% stocks... other than my gold, t-bills, checking a...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

If a typical retiree (i.e. age ~65) wanted to start with 3.5% withdrawals (roughly 28x annual spending), I wouldn't fault them at all. But when people start talking about <3% starting withdrawals and fail to mention the risks associated with that approach, that's when I perceive an issue. What risk...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Close or Walk Dilemma
Replies: 21
Views: 2841

Re: Another Close or Walk Dilemma

I would walk if the damages aren't going to be more than the deposit.
Things are WAY too uncertain to be carrying two properties for an indefinite period.
by technovelist
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I wonder the same thing-- I'm feeling nervous about anything in my portfolio with LTT exposure. I haven't heard any really good commentary (from someone like Browne, Swedroe etc.) on whether LTT still fits. I too would be very interested in what Browne had to say, but unfortunately he is no longer ...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

FWIW, despite the unprecedented low yields on fixed income, we have no idea what inflation will be going forward. The common fear seems to be inflation, but the current threat being fought is deflation. Since the 4% SWR requires factoring in inflation, a deflationary spiral (which would be horrible...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

But I do think it is important for investors who are approaching or entering retirement to consider that market conditions going forward might be significantly different from the conditions to which they've grown accustomed.... Retirees or near-retirees who are expecting to have withdrawal rates of...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

... there is no compelling reason to believe that the extremely unusual performance of the American stock market in the last 100 years or so, relative to almost all other stock markets in the world, is likely to be repeated in the next 100 years. ... and yet for the past 200+ years... https://i.pos...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The 4% rule is from a little more than 3 independent 30 year periods, observed in one country out of hundreds. That sounds much less impressive, doesn't it? What you said sounds much less impressive mainly because it isn't true/accurate. William Bengin looked at rolling thirty-year periods from his...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72533

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Can’t argue with you there. What I mean is that we had enough vents (sort of). We had enough docs (sort of). I am not aware of anyone being denied care because they were too old or frail. "Officials in both Wuhan and New York had to revise their death counts upward this week when they realized that...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

The 4% rule is from a little more than 3 independent 30 year periods, observed in one country out of hundreds. That sounds much less impressive, doesn't it? What you said sounds much less impressive mainly because it isn't true/accurate. William Bengin looked at rolling thirty-year periods from his...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

i'm 66 and think turning my back on the roughly 8% growth/yr i get on my ss full retirement amount pretty hard to do i'd also be turning my back on 4 yrs of 401k contributions by my employer to the tune of 8% of my salary i'd also be turning my back on about 48 more months of roth ira investments t...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31492

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Look, it's real simple. Trinity showed that 4% didn't fail in the past, even if you retired at the very worst times right before the worse sequence of returns. In fact, that's where 4% came from. They looked at the WORST times, not the good times, not the average times.. There is no averaging going...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I wonder the same thing-- I'm feeling nervous about anything in my portfolio with LTT exposure. I haven't heard any really good commentary (from someone like Browne, Swedroe etc.) on whether LTT still fits. I too would be very interested in what Browne had to say, but unfortunately he is no longer ...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Resurrecting this thread .......... I was reading up this weekend on how the permanent portfolio did recently -- not surprisingly, it has held up extremely well. I was thinking about a variation on the PP using NTSX (to sort of replace the stock component) and SWAN (to sort of replace the LTT compo...
by technovelist
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

What do you think Browne would say about buying LTT's today? I remember a caller in the show didn't want to buy them at 4% and he told the guy that he had to still recommend them because he had seen rates drop to 2% in the past and that it could happen again today. Well he was sure right as always!...
by technovelist
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 224
Views: 13352

Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread

A question for all of you: I purchased non-refundable tickets in September 2019 on American Airlines (AA) for a trip to London, UK in late May 2020 through mid-June 2020. Original itinerary was an overnight non-stop flight from Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) to London Heathrow (LHR). I've just received an...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 783
Views: 178088

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Where one can find the true religion. LOL. https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/index.php On a more serious note, the HBPP has basically done what it's originator said it would do through thick and thin. I'm personally not a big fan of it for younger people in its pure 25/25/25/25 form as it i...
by technovelist
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Crisis Hedging Ideas?
Replies: 14
Views: 948

Re: Muni Crisis Hedging Ideas?

I'd dump the munis and go with Treasurys.
That's because I'm more interested in return of principal than return on principal.
by technovelist
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12274

Re: There Is No Gold

Silver is seemingly 10 bucks above spot right now for most sites. 35% premium! Gold is at a 7% premium on some sites. Did anyone hear about the options bet for gold that paid 100M? https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/20/options-trader-makes-a-big-bet-on-gold.html Options are zero-sum, so some others...