Search found 45 matches

by bogle_graham
Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 8713

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

Essentially what I'm asking is: is my real tolerance for pain really a known unknown, based on your personal investing history? And how did you manage to stay the course through the first real portfolio drop you had? This is a really great question especially for someone who hasn't been through a b...
by bogle_graham
Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice needed - Management - MBA??
Replies: 22
Views: 3054

I know a few CISO's. They all got there through slightly different means. There is no standard track for CISO because it's a somewhat new position and not every company needs one. Think about it, even a 3 person startup has a CFO of some sort. Most companies don't start thinking about security until...
by bogle_graham
Mon May 23, 2011 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk/Valuation
Replies: 12
Views: 1537

Thanks for the link.

Good read.
by bogle_graham
Thu May 05, 2011 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying individual stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 2752

If you don't like your 401k choices, but your account will allow you to buy and sell individual stocks, why not just choose

VOO

This is the Vanguard ETF that represents the S&P 500 index. Very low expense ratio. Buy it once a year to keep trading costs down.
by bogle_graham
Fri Apr 29, 2011 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 1989-vintage guideline. Age 65: 0% to 20% stocks!
Replies: 49
Views: 6786

Great Post Nisiprius! What about C.) This thing called the "stock market" is a measure of human and capitalistic growth which in real terms (earnings, etc.) grows at about 7% and is statistically partially predictable. While perception of how to correctly invest in this growth suffers from...
by bogle_graham
Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My investment success
Replies: 88
Views: 14259

Congrats!
by bogle_graham
Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scared by success
Replies: 49
Views: 5226

rebalance,rebalance,rebalance. Marty
+1

Normally when I feel things are going too well, I just consider it a sign to rebalance.

The same thing happens on the downside by the way, just remember to rebalance INTO what scares you.
by bogle_graham
Tue Mar 29, 2011 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Following Your Passion - Not Great Investment Advice
Replies: 42
Views: 5347

For your friend who studied Japanese, honestly, he just sounds unmotivated. I have a friend who studied Japanese in college as well. The difference is that he now owns a business in Japan, plays in a Japanese punk band, and teaches English on the side to make some extra cash. He loves what he does e...
by bogle_graham
Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you retire outside the US?
Replies: 61
Views: 10198

Is possible for a retired person to get reasonably priced health care insurance in New Zealand between say the ages of 60 and 65? Here's a wikipedia link to New Zealand's healthcare system. So, see what you think. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_care_in_New_Zealand Here's another for people liv...
by bogle_graham
Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you retire outside the US?
Replies: 61
Views: 10198

I would never consider retirement outside the US for cost reasons alone... the reasons would depend on lifestyle. +1 to this. When I retire, I'll probably spend some amount of time living outside the US, but this will be because of personal/cultural reasons, not financial reasons. For what the post...
by bogle_graham
Sun Mar 13, 2011 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How well is Japan equipped to deal with this tragedy?
Replies: 46
Views: 6734

How well is Japan equipped to deal with this tragedy? The Japanese appear incredibly well equipped to handle this event. The Japanese government seems to be on the ball. Among the people there is no looting, no random violence. If you compare this Tsunami in Japan to Katrina in New Orleans, the Jap...
by bogle_graham
Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help for early retirement for 34 year old?
Replies: 15
Views: 2977

It sounds like you're off to a great start. The only advice I'd have is that you might want to look into simplifying your portfolio. Here's why. A lot of the funds you have actually contain the same stocks as the other funds you have. So, you're not really gaining diversification by having both fund...
by bogle_graham
Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Reason for Financial Problems
Replies: 117
Views: 15389

There are probably a lot of reasons. But, the BIGGEST reason has to be the financial illiteracy of the general public. Most people really just have no idea when it comes to money. Even basic things like compound interest on credit cards, whole vs. term life insurance, saving vs. investing. I mean, i...
by bogle_graham
Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 32 y/o and new to investing. Need your help with portfolio!
Replies: 15
Views: 1899

Does anyone have any comments on international AA This one is debateable. You have a 20% international exposure, and that sounds like enough to me. People usually recommend anywhere from 15% to 50% of their stock allocation in international stocks. The difference is mainly due to 2 different school...
by bogle_graham
Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 32 y/o and new to investing. Need your help with portfolio!
Replies: 15
Views: 1899

Hi Chad, Congratulations on deciding on an asset allocation. The one you've presented seems fine. 70% stocks. 30% bonds, with half of your bonds being TIPS and half of your bonds as Total Bond Market. Most of your stocks are Total Stock Market, with a small amount of International. This is pretty te...
by bogle_graham
Mon Dec 13, 2010 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Taking a year off?
Replies: 28
Views: 4273

Definitely agree.

Take the 3 months and see how it goes.

If you feel recharged, go back to work. If you don't, quit.
by bogle_graham
Mon Dec 13, 2010 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will the US eventually resolve its debt?
Replies: 37
Views: 3872

I think they'll do all of the above. What would you do if you had the following cash flows. 13.8 trillion in debt, interest is about 4%. (.5 trillion per year in interest) Every year you get 2.2 trillion in new earnings Every year you spend 3.5 trillion. (including the .5 trillion in interest) You'd...
by bogle_graham
Mon Dec 13, 2010 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Bankruptcy
Replies: 35
Views: 5208

You think the credit card companies weren't aware of this when they gave them the card? It is a loss they are willing to risk because they get so much money before the bankruptcy is filed to make it worth it. The credit card companies are not being forced to extend credit to anyone. Agreed. That's ...
by bogle_graham
Wed Nov 03, 2010 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a website that sells an Ebook
Replies: 14
Views: 2765

The biggest factor to consider with this would be how are your going to reach your audience. If you don't reach your audience through promotion of some sort, you've just spent a lot of time with low to no potential for return. Whichever service either has a larger number of users/readers or whicheve...
by bogle_graham
Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing out when sticking to a Boglehead approach
Replies: 32
Views: 5367

woulda coulda shoulda.

I almost bought BIDU around $15.

Most of us remember the one that got away.

Few of us remember the one that would've put us in the poor house.
by bogle_graham
Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expatriate considering return to the USA
Replies: 28
Views: 4019

Just a word of warning. You will have some major reverse culture shock when you come back. Especially having been gone for 10 years. I wouldn't break the employment contract, especially if you're living in Asia as it sounds. From my friends who have returned from overseas, you've got about a 50/50 c...
by bogle_graham
Fri Oct 08, 2010 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after my panic attack?
Replies: 20
Views: 3928

My concern is that I don’t like going into the market at near the high for the year (May 3, DOW 11151.83). I hear this a lot. My question to you is: Next year, will the Dow be $14,000 or will it be $7,000? Do you know the answer to this? Based on the last 3 years of experience, both of these seem l...
by bogle_graham
Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible forced early retirement: how ready am I?
Replies: 32
Views: 4158

I find a lot of people mention "retiring" when really what they desire is "change". Usually a job or career change would be enough to get out of the rut. Work does not have to be horrible or a prison sentence. If it feels that way, find something new. The absense of work has its ...
by bogle_graham
Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll on who has tried market timing.
Replies: 25
Views: 3685

Tried market timing for a while.

I thought I was a genius, until I lost 1/3 of my gains to taxes.
by bogle_graham
Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

How do I know when to tilt towards 25/75 for bonds an stock? That's the million dollar question :D The truth is, I don't think anyone really knows exactly when to go from 25% bonds to 50% bonds to 75% bonds. People can make intelligent guesses based on P/Es, etc., but there is no guarantee that the...
by bogle_graham
Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy-n-Hold Revisited
Replies: 30
Views: 4604

Hey ButWait, I don't think you'll have much luck convincing Bogleheads that timing is the way to go, but just for your own knowledge, it sounds like someone is spouting mis-information at you. For instance, it didn't take 25 years for investors who invested in 1929 to get their entire investment bac...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

Does Graham's 5 points above cover all of Grahams market valuation techniques? No, it doesn't. If you've never read the Intelligent Investor by Graham, you should pick it up. He does analysis based on a lot of different metrics. One of the most popular is something called the price to tangible book...
by bogle_graham
Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

The interesting thing about markets, is that they are made up of competitive people. Once a method outperforms the market and gains in popularity, this signals the end of it's effectiveness, as new investment money using the same method reduces margins and ultimately leads to malinvestment Think Dog...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

It's also interesting that the 1966 bull market peaked at a P/E(10) of 24.

While the bear market low of 2003 was at a P/E(10) of 21.

And this tactical asset allocation strategy basically recommended a 50/50 bond/stock split at both times.

Yeah, timing/pricing the market is difficult.
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

I ran some numbers using CyberBob's asset allocation using Robert Shillers historical data from his yale excel file. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm I substituted Shiller's 10 year treasury yield for the Total Bond Index yield. I found the following things interesting. When stocks are ver...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 22, 2010 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation + historical P/E ratios
Replies: 55
Views: 11747

CyberBob's methodology seems very sound and very similar to Graham's Defensive Investor. But, you'd want to be careful about your backtesting. You did backtest during one of the periods where a heavy bond allocation did the best. If you could test your methodolgy starting maybe around 1966, then 198...
by bogle_graham
Fri Jun 18, 2010 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Doomed to Repeat" or my worst fears, Japan
Replies: 7
Views: 1775

Yeah they analyzed the Japanese Lost Decade about a year ago on this forum. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=23036&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 The results were basically listed in 3 categories. 100% domestic Japanese Stocks. 60% domestic Japanese Stocks 40% Japanese B...
by bogle_graham
Fri Jun 18, 2010 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Average return of index funds
Replies: 25
Views: 5058

Welcome to the forum gleefan88, I started investing about your age too, and I was able to be financially independent within about 7-8 years. Not retired, but debt free, no paycheck to paycheck, could take a few years off, etc, etc. From the sounds of it, you've got the right idea. It's all about spe...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the "equity risk premium" a convenient fiction?
Replies: 115
Views: 11165

So where does that leave us if people are told to buy stocks no matter what and they will earn 6-10 percent? Who is then enforcing the requirement that there be a risk premium? The risk premium isn't what generates the 9% return every year from stocks, business does. Although the risk premium can m...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the "equity risk premium" a convenient fiction?
Replies: 115
Views: 11165

This is a great thread. I just wanted to point out that the historical 9% of stock returns has nothing to do with "Risk Premium" that we're talking about on this thread. I know some people will disagree with me on this, but one person who doesn't is Jack Bogle. On page 10 of "The Litt...
by bogle_graham
Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the "equity risk premium" a convenient fiction?
Replies: 115
Views: 11165

Agreed. Just because something is risky does not mean that the reward will be greater than something not risky. The premium comes because rational people noticing the risk should demand a premium in the form of a lower price or higher dividend payment, interest payment, etc. to compensate for their ...
by bogle_graham
Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting a business
Replies: 16
Views: 3209

Now is where your business actually starts and you'll have to stop thinking like a computer guy. Think instead like a customer. If I'm your potential customer, I've gotten an email that says, "Hey I can save you money on XYZ, are you interested?" My response is "Yes". Now what? D...
by bogle_graham
Wed Apr 21, 2010 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When can we stop saving for retirement? (But not retire)
Replies: 74
Views: 12866

Golden handcuffs cause heart attacks.

Quit the high stress job.

Just don't quit working.

And you'll be fine.

1 million in the bank being alive and healthy is worth much more than 3 million in the bank dead.

You already have a million. Your plan sounds fine.
by bogle_graham
Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much should you have at certain ages.
Replies: 46
Views: 11402

Hi stemikger, Everyone might have a different opinion, but you sound pretty on track for retirement to me. People get so obsessed with "The Number" and having "Enough", but it's not really like that. It's really just a question of how you'll be able to live in retirement. If your...
by bogle_graham
Wed Apr 14, 2010 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Currently 32 and want to be a Millionaire by 65. Please hlp
Replies: 57
Views: 7709

Hi Mindinvest, It sounds like you are maybe somewhat new to investing and are just looking for some solid advice. The good news is that you are on the right track. At saving $44,000 per year, even if your investments returned 0% for the next 33 years until retirement, you would have almost 1 and a h...
by bogle_graham
Thu Apr 01, 2010 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book for starting a small business?
Replies: 8
Views: 1162

Hi Indices, I agree with neverknow on this. If you're concerned about the tax deductions, hire a good accountant. And if it's your first small business, a mentor would not hurt. Depending on the business that you're entering, tax deductions could potentially be the least of your worries. You're prim...
by bogle_graham
Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: You have your anti-virus program, now what?
Replies: 27
Views: 3424

I run the free versions of adaware and avast. This really is enough. As long as you have a decent always on anti-virus program like Avast or others that protect in memory, for the most part, you'll be fine. But like emergDoc said, anything more serious than that, you probably just need to reinstall ...
by bogle_graham
Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: looking to see where I stand financially?
Replies: 116
Views: 19682

I agree with Stephanie on this. If you're really interested in working full time at your side job or travelling the world, I would say to make sure that you focus on those two things if they're what you really want. Being able to completely "retire" by 30 with your current savings rate and...
by bogle_graham
Thu Jan 14, 2010 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Traveling to Italy
Replies: 32
Views: 5666

Troglodyte, Just some advice on choosing a hotel in Rome if you haven't picked one yet. It's better to stay in a less nice hotel near the city center then a really nice hotel near the airport. The airport is about 20 minutes away by cab. Also, Rome is fairly safe everywhere, but the area right next ...
by bogle_graham
Wed Dec 30, 2009 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Overstate Difficulty of Stock Picking?
Replies: 189
Views: 28284

Petrocelli, My portfolio is similar to yours. For my domestic stock allocation, I use an index fund for 50% and I pick individual stocks for the other 50%. Both of these investment choices are low cost which is something that Jack Bogle is trying to teach in the book "Enough". I think it's...