Search found 32 matches

by kolder
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19677

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

And yet somehow Warren Buffett thought it was a good idea to invest 6 billion in Japanese stocks this year ( Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui & Co and Sumitomo). I am not going to argue that but rather question it! Not you, but Warren Buffet! Mr. Buffett has said with Becky Quick on CNBC over m...
by kolder
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19677

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Is a Japan scenario even possible in the US? and what are the likely chances? It's absolutely critical to keep in mind that at the peak of the Japanese stock market in 1989, the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) reached about 90. The highest the U.S. ever got in the dot com bubble ...
by kolder
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Wanted to share this article with you all, which shows some evidence of a value premium being present pre-1926 (emphasis on "evidence", as the data is much less robust pre-1926). https://www.twocenturies.com/blog/2020/5/11/value-investing-even-deeper-history Interestingly, it seems there might have ...
by kolder
Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19677

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Tamalak wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:04 pm
columbia wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:58 pm If it makes the OP feel better, US is down further today than ex-US. :P
It doesn't make me feel better, it figures today would contradict my OP :oops:
No it just means the US will outperform for the next 9 days! BUY BUY BUY :greedy
by kolder
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone point me to 25 years worth of market returns that include dividends?
Replies: 9
Views: 953

Re: Can someone point me to 25 years worth of market returns that include dividends?

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absolut...
by kolder
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19677

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

A different way of asking the question is what is going on with US large growth/tech? Market has historically high expectations for large growth currently. Possibly for good reason, because COVID has pulled forward years of tech implementation in just a few months. If they can deliver/exceed the ea...
by kolder
Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Large Growth disliked?
Replies: 75
Views: 7419

Re: Why is Large Growth disliked?

I wouldn't recommend LCG, as you are making a strong bet against historical returns. My stance regarding SCV strategies: claiming SCV is dead is more speculative than claiming it will provide a premium over the long run. We are currently in the worst 3-year period for value relative to growth in res...
by kolder
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"
Replies: 25
Views: 2003

Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

1980-2000 SCV outperformed TSM
1985-2005 SCV outperformed TSM
1990-2010 SCV outperformed TSM
1995-2015 SCV outperformed TSM
2000-2020 SCV outperformed TSM

2005-present TSM has outperformed so far! :shock:

per portfoliovisualizer
by kolder
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 2102

Re: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe

Paul bringing in the big guns for backup after the white coat investor podcast? :D (kidding)

Looking forward to this thanks to all involved!
by kolder
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is is possible the historical value premium is due to the overall market preferring capital gains to dividends , especially before qualified dividends and share buybacks existed? Also, consider that most ex-US still prohibits share buybacks, which is perhaps another reason for the recent ex-US SCV ...
by kolder
Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Webcast from DFA "Value vs. Growth: Past, Present, and Future" https://videos.dimensional.com/share/v/1_q43cr2o2 Nothing too groundbreaking here and the gist of it is mostly "stay the course". It is Interesting to see that the last 3 years has been the largest 3-year underperformance of value compa...
by kolder
Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Webcast from DFA "Value vs. Growth: Past, Present, and Future" https://videos.dimensional.com/share/v/1_q43cr2o2 Nothing too groundbreaking here and the gist of it is mostly "stay the course". It is Interesting to see that the last 3 years has been the largest 3-year underperformance of value compar...
by kolder
Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Steve Reading wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:27 pm
Steve Reading wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:04 am *SCV underperforms every day*
*SCV outperforms just ONE day*

Me to me: Why what an excellent choice my SCV tilt has been indeed.
This seems relevant today.
Me to me: Looking at the historical data going back one day, the SCV premium is clearly persistent
by kolder
Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

If we were talking about the difference between 50 stocks vs 100 stocks, I'd probably say the diversification was worth it. But 500 stocks vs 1000?? No way. At that point, there's no idiosyncratic risk left. Besides, if this was a legitimate concern than an investor could just hold something like V...
by kolder
Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Seems many people don't understand the purpose of these core funds. They are meant to replace funds such as vti/vxus etc, not to be used to achieve a heavy tilt to factors. I don't think there are very many people who will put all of their money into small cap value, so these funds are designed ach...
by kolder
Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Seems many people don't understand the purpose of these core funds. They are meant to replace funds such as vti/vxus etc, not to be used to achieve a heavy tilt to factors. I don't think there are very many people who will put all of their money into small cap value, so these funds are designed achi...
by kolder
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

ER for new DFA ETFs: DFAU - DFA US Core Equity ETF: 0.12% DFAI - DFA Int Core Equity ETF: 0.18% DFAE - DFA EM Core Equity ETF: 0.35% https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1816125/000179420220000449/dimensionaletfn1aa.htm US/Int a bit lower than Avantis, EM a bit higher. Interested to see where the...
by kolder
Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Here's mine: 35% FSKAX 10% FTIHX 35% AVUVX 10% AVDVX 5% AVEEX 5% SFENX (etf equivalents in ira) Overall ER: .17 70/30 US/Int 50/50 TSM/SCV rough attempt at a backtest: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1987&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calend...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

What tax drag are you referring to here? Foreign withholdings on dividends How's that different from what I just said? I suppose you could make the argument FNDE's stocks are paying dividends taxes in their foreign countries which VTI wouldn't. So all else equal, FNDE shouldn't have an equal invest...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

As a US investor, assuming 25 bps tax drag, you only get 9.75% since that 25 bps is unrecoverable in a tax-advantaged account. What tax drag are you referring to here? Foreign withholdings on dividends How's that different from what I just said? I suppose you could make the argument FNDE's stocks a...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Steve Reading wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:43 am
kolder wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:38 am As a US investor, assuming 25 bps tax drag, you only get 9.75% since that 25 bps is unrecoverable in a tax-advantaged account.
What tax drag are you referring to here?
Foreign withholdings on dividends
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I would and I do. My numbers work out such that FNDE is much more tax-inefficient but it's got the tax credit to bring it right around in line with USA holdings. That means that whether I hold FNDE in tax-advantaged and VTI in taxable, or the other way around, it comes out to around the same. Am I ...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I would and I do. My numbers work out such that FNDE is much more tax-inefficient but it's got the tax credit to bring it right around in line with USA holdings. That means that whether I hold FNDE in tax-advantaged and VTI in taxable, or the other way around, it comes out to around the same. Am I ...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

But sometimes I wonder if international is even worth it considering the unrecoverable tax withholdings. Whenever I've used triceratops tax efficiency calculator, I've found that US and Ex-USA funds are perfectly fine from a tax perspective for me. Actually quite close. I hold FNDE in my taxable ac...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is foreign tax drag a concern for anyone? Considering small value typically pays out higher dividends, you end up taking a bigger hit especially in a tax advantaged account. I've seen numbers thrown around of about 20-50 bps loss due to this which could be even higher in SCV funds. I do want to hol...
by kolder
Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is foreign tax drag a concern for anyone? Considering small value typically pays out higher dividends, you end up taking a bigger hit especially in a tax advantaged account. I've seen numbers thrown around of about 20-50 bps loss due to this which could be even higher in SCV funds. I do want to hold...
by kolder
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

. Just did a quick check-in on sources of my portfolio return since start of 2003 to yesterday. +7.1% = "Global market portfolio": 55% world stock:45% bonds +0.8% = From stock:bond decision* +0.0% = From within bond decisions** +0.7% = From within stock decisions*** +8.6% = Total return * Higher st...
by kolder
Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:04 pm
kolder wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:59 pm AVUVX been doing quite well since the march 23 bottom:
It also fell a lot harder. VBR still ahead YTD by my math.
Yeah it did, Interestingly AVUVX has done better and AVUV has done worse than VBR for YTD

Image
by kolder
Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3124
Views: 229530

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

AVUVX been doing quite well since the march 23 bottom:

Image
by kolder
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 121
Views: 9995

Re: AQR still singing the same song

Question for factorheads: has any well publicized factor strategy offered non-trivial outperformance after publication so far? Edit: in a real factor fund suggested by the publicizer relative to a real index fund. Here's an example from 1997 until now: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-p...
by kolder
Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 272
Views: 35112

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

Hi all. I'm interested in including the Avantis fund lineup in the 401k fund choices for the company I work for. Originally I was just going to include the ETFs but after reading through the prospectus for the mutual funds it seems that they might be able to be included in some 401k plans without th...