Search found 66 matches

by zetsui
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1272

Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

im also curious where international equity can fit in here? This has implications for jewish and muslim investors who do not delve into bonds. This is not my personal concern though, though its good to always hedge slow us growth with faster international growth, the two can most times be uncorrelat...
by zetsui
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1272

Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

How long have you had it? What is your asset allocation? How is gold held (physcically or in an index)? I want to do this with my father's IRA, which his spouse and children will inherit, since it seems to be since 1970 one of the best risk adjusted portfolios but low interest rates and having such...
by zetsui
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1272

Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

80% stock and 20% gold for the entire portfolio? Is there more than one golden butterfly portfolio? I'm asking because what you mentioned looks nothing like the golden butterfly portfolio mentioned here. https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/golden-butterfly-portfolio/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwxNT8BRD9ARIsAJ8S5x...
by zetsui
Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1272

Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

How long have you had it? What is your asset allocation? How is gold held (physcically or in an index)? I want to do this with my father's IRA, which his spouse and children will inherit, since it seems to be since 1970 one of the best risk adjusted portfolios but low interest rates and having such ...
by zetsui
Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the price of Pound Sterling before they switched to fiat?
Replies: 4
Views: 557

Re: What happened to the price of Pound Sterling before they switched to fiat?

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general question). Do you have any investments that are tied to the Pound Sterling? No, but I'm curious about buying gold at higher than 10% of my portfolio, for golden butterfly, and since the US is at the end of a long term debt ...
by zetsui
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to the price of Pound Sterling before they switched to fiat?
Replies: 4
Views: 557

What happened to the price of Pound Sterling before they switched to fiat?

did the price go up and then stay up after the 1971 bretton woods switch OR did it go up and then come back down?

Where was the UK in its long term credit cycle during this shift?
by zetsui
Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children
Replies: 12
Views: 1170

Re: If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children

Thank you for your reply. So there aren't many , or really, any complications like you mentioned. He just wants us to be able to have a good retirement later in life. so my father 1) only wants my little brother and I who have shown less earning potential than my older siblings to have the money in...
by zetsui
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children
Replies: 12
Views: 1170

Re: If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children

Thank you for your reply. So there aren't many , or really, any complications like you mentioned. He just wants us to be able to have a good retirement later in life. so my father 1) only wants my little brother and I who have shown less earning potential than my older siblings to have the money in ...
by zetsui
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children
Replies: 12
Views: 1170

If an older person has an IRA they want to roll over to their children

What are some of the implications to think about with regards to tax, and what's the best way to do this? Dad is in this position going on 68 years old. HE plan on retiring within the next 5 years. Physician. He plans on just giving his 300k IRA to his children, to invest for their own IRA and holds...
by zetsui
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ELI5 how do company valuations work?
Replies: 3
Views: 513

Re: ELI5 how do company valuations work?

So how can you tell the fluff from the cake? With a closely held (i.e non-public) company you can't . No, seriously. There is almost no way to figure out their financial details without being in a position (i.e. be a big enough potential investor) to sit down with them and go through their books. W...
by zetsui
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ELI5 how do company valuations work?
Replies: 3
Views: 513

ELI5 how do company valuations work?

This seems to be a topic that comes up more and more wherever I look (ie startups, Japanese bubble being caused by overvaluations) But how do valuations work and why are they important? Like the 90%+ not the whole breakdown of ebitda and 10ks (something I understand cursorily)? For instance a 'trave...
by zetsui
Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of a boglehead portfolio for individual stocks or industrie?
Replies: 7
Views: 461

Re: What percentage of a boglehead portfolio for individual stocks or industrie?

I believe the question is, outside of your ETFs and mutual fund, how much individual stock gambling can you do? My answer is you can pick any number you want as this is a free country! : ) However my advice would be zero percent, except in the case that you work for a company and get to buy those s...
by zetsui
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leading/lagging industries during a recession?
Replies: 1
Views: 183

Leading/lagging industries during a recession?

Which industries sharply lead/lag a recession and typically by what volume?

I was reading Chamath Palahaptiya who was saying in Social Capital's report that Covid's economic effects will lag until 6 months (right around October-January) to be fully seen.
by zetsui
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of a boglehead portfolio for individual stocks or industrie?
Replies: 7
Views: 461

What percentage of a boglehead portfolio for individual stocks or industrie?

If I put the majority of my 100% stock portfolio into an ETF, what percent typically could you allocate to say Ali Baba or Amazon, FAANG, tech, etc (less->more industry specific) if you think these would offer consistently higher returns than the S&P, in the short term? Or if you're interested in le...
by zetsui
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some of the coolest visuals or graphics you've seen on this site?
Replies: 4
Views: 716

What are some of the coolest visuals or graphics you've seen on this site?

Between all the investment philosophies and risks, what were some of the coolest visualizations/graphics that you have seen on this forum, and what insight did you glean from it?

My pinterest Finance folder: https://www.pinterest.com/manimgoindowndo/finance/
by zetsui
Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?
Replies: 27
Views: 1174

Can an individual investor COPY a hedge fund or the likes portfolio?

For instance Yale's endowment portfolio or a hedge fund ran by Ray dalio, is it possible to copy their portfolio for an indivudal invesor or is there end of year allocation after hundreds or thousands of daily trades that take advantage of day-to-day arbitrage?
by zetsui
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

What's interesting to me and doesn't seem to get discussed much. Bond issuers want to do big projects and proceed to sell Bonds with a set time frame and return to the Bond investor. There's still plenty of big projects out there for Bond issuers. Think of States and Municipalities and all their ty...
by zetsui
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

...Know two UChicago economic PhDs and one Oxford PhD from my undergrad. It's going up... In April of 2014, Bloomberg polled not just two, but sixty-seven economists for their forecasts of what would happen to the yield on the ten-year bond over the next six months. Every one of them, 100%, sixty-s...
by zetsui
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

In fact, that still holds true, so why would i, for my father at 68.5 buy 8 year length bonds if interest rates are only going up? Seems like again bonds are just at a loss, according to that link's advice? If you know that interest rates are only going up, 1) congratulations on your crystal ball, ...
by zetsui
Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

You might be interested to read a post , by our very own vineviz, about matching the average duration of one's bond holdings with one's investment horizon in order to minimize interest rate risk. That post wasnt good for me and in the words of the first page a responder said "He's buying long-term ...
by zetsui
Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

OP, ideally what will happen with your bonds is.....not much. The first purpose of bonds is to dampen the volatility of the portfolio by reducing your exposure to the riskiest assets. This is for, among other things, giving you a psychological buffer against selling out in a crash. A historically g...
by zetsui
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

With interest rates at an all time low and rates to only rise, that means we are likelier to be in a deflationary vs an inflationary event, with the rising interest rates, yet simultaneously bond rates will also rise, so what the hell is there to invest in? Or am I reading this wrong, stocks are at...
by zetsui
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

For a beginner investor, what will happen with bonds?

I have been reading a lot about credit and debt markets and with interest rates at an all time low and the fed saying they wont raise them until 2023, it seems confusing on how to handle the boglehead classic allocation between stocks and bonds. With interest rates at an all time low and rates to on...
by zetsui
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What effect would the US losing its reserve status have on stock and bond markets?
Replies: 4
Views: 558

What effect would the US losing its reserve status have on stock and bond markets?

historically how quickly have these markets recovered? i imagine debt would be FAR more affected than stocks.

Read Dalio's book. A little too redundant in many places, but trying to exercise some of the things about long debt cycles he went over
by zetsui
Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: withdrawal from a fixed annuity
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: withdrawal from a fixed annuity

What are my options to withdrawal from a fixed annuity? I know the lump sum is always an option my dad has a fixed annuity which has already "expired" meaning there is no surrender charge ...and i was told he gets to keep the interest rate until he decides to withdrawal is this even normal? can he ...
by zetsui
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any backtesting sites that go back to the Depression?
Replies: 5
Views: 605

Re: Are there any backtesting sites that go back to the Depression?

it seems like many such websites as portfoliocharts and portfoliovisualizer have a limited up to 80s and 90s . are there any websites that allow backtesting even further, or somehow project newer etfs to go back and test in a great depression (1929 to 1939) window? https://investwemust.com/calculat...
by zetsui
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any backtesting sites that go back to the Depression?
Replies: 5
Views: 605

Are there any backtesting sites that go back to the Depression?

it seems like many such websites as portfoliocharts and portfoliovisualizer have a limited up to 80s and 90s . are there any websites that allow backtesting even further, or somehow project newer etfs to go back and test in a great depression (1929 to 1939) window?
by zetsui
Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HEarners retrospect what career metrics should you look at?
Replies: 1
Views: 363

HEarners retrospect what career metrics should you look at?

Finished reading the Millionaire Next Door (am 30/M/tech and smaller DoD background before that) Net income is a metric Stanley mentioned a lot in his book. However that doesn't tell the whole story, obviously. Other things I've looked at, as a non finance guy, are EV/EBITDA by industry, although th...
by zetsui
Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 66
Views: 5580

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Two big takeaways to me: 1) Valuations matter; high valuations tend to mean lower future returns. If valuations are high enough, that can mean negative or zero returns for decades, so best not to own a lot of countries with very high valuations. 2) High valuations can last for many years or continu...
by zetsui
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 66
Views: 5580

What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Their stock market peaked around '91 and has been that or less for the last 30 years.

How would Boglheads deal with a similar situation in the US? And what can we learn from JPN?

What [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] did retirees in JPN end up doing?
by zetsui
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I better use portfolio charts?
Replies: 6
Views: 588

How can I better use portfolio charts?

1) I swear I bookmarked, but cannot find a total chart that shows ALL his portfolios with ulcer index on one axis, and risk adjusted returns on another axis. Golden butterfly was a good mix between the two, anyone have a reference on this? Edit: was something like this but interactive, not an image ...
by zetsui
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between BND and raising interest rates
Replies: 23
Views: 2636

Re: Correlation between BND and raising interest rates

so you are still reccomending, for a beginner like me, to hold BND for my 60% bond allocation? In line with boglehead philosphy?
by zetsui
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2967

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

I don't believe a magic bullet exists in the current bond market that will provide reliable real positive return risk-free. We are at the end of a massive 35+ years bond bull market during which 10 yr Treasury yields dropped from 15% to 0.6% and inflation declined similarly and consistently. During...
by zetsui
Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2967

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

Makes some sense but what is going to cause inflation ? Of interest, as to possible things we could see: Stanley Druckenmiller fears the possibility of either high inflation (5-10%) or 3%-4% deflation. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3612423-an-absolute-raging-mania-stan-druckenmiller-talks-markets-o...
by zetsui
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2967

What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

Truth be told no one knows what will happen to Fed rates, and I dont have the strongest Economics background but what would happen i)_ with lower interest rates over the next 15 yeras and ii) higher interest rates. Given these two situations, and in my opinion the latter being the more liekly option...
by zetsui
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what percent of retirement should be invested in tax deferred vs tax free accounts?
Replies: 39
Views: 3228

what percent of retirement should be invested in tax deferred vs tax free accounts?

As a younger person my asset allocation is 30% bonds and 70% stocks. However as I get older that [shifts] towards a more bond heavy profile closer to retirement Can I think of tax defered and tax free accounts (ie Roth) as the same around my retirement age? Should my retirement accoutns be maxed out...
by zetsui
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Re: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

what fees does Vanguard PAS charge? Also I have been reading and educating myself on finance this past year with Bogle heads, Ramit Sheti, and ahve an engineering/stats background. Portfolio charst too. I think something like a golden butterfly would fit a lot of his needs. But I agree with the sent...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

How would I structure my father's retirement?

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

68 year old physician. He plans on working at most only 3 years more

Has only 300k in his retirement account and three rental properties
by zetsui
Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

buy low, sell high. Its pretty much the most basic principle of investing. It's not a principle, more like a platitude. How do you propose one execute that strategy? Buy and hold is what you're looking for and it can be understood and practiced by anyone with even the most basic knowledge of invest...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

I guess age is a factor here, but let's say young and old, why and why wouldn't i be investing in a downing or soon to precipitate market (i realize market can't be timed but if the average bull market is 6.5 years and we're going on 12 I think it's pretty safe to assume one is closeby for an older...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

abuss368 wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:58 pm All markets are as good of a time to buy as any! Focus on looking for ways to increase your savings rate every year.
great advice
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are the reporting requirements for brokers? 'Fudiciary advisors'
Replies: 4
Views: 296

Re: What are the reporting requirements for brokers? 'Fudiciary advisors'

NJ state resident 1) What are the reporting requirements (ie commision schedule) if a broker sells you annuiuties? On my father's statement I saw this 'advisors' name. I am assuming he gets a comision yet for hte last 8 years he hasn't traded anything in the account. My father has NO paperwork or s...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Re: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

Is he making money on his rentals? If so, why doesn't he just put his money into more rentals? Better than getting scammed out of it. Seems he must know how to do it with 3 rentals now. Or is he losing money on them? he doesn't track expenses, and north jersey is a VERY tax heavy part of the nation...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What are the reporting requirements for brokers? 'Fudiciary advisors'
Replies: 4
Views: 296

Re: What are the reporting requirements for brokers? 'Fudiciary advisors'

NJ state resident 1) What are the reporting requirements (ie commision schedule) if a broker sells you annuiuties? On my father's statement I saw this 'advisors' name. I am assuming he gets a comision yet for hte last 8 years he hasn't traded anything in the account. My father has NO paperwork or s...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Re: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

NTSX? Invests in Treasury futures rather than Treasuries, so instead of loaning money to the government he would be betting on loans to the government. Expected return is about 90% of S&P but with lower volatility. Is he allowed to invest in S&P500 or does he need a Shariah compliant fund? Ironical...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Re: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

Rather than owning bonds, which pay interest that he does not believe in, how about the following approach. Keep a big piece in cash instead of bonds, and invest the rest in S&P500 index. In addition to avoiding interest, this would lessen the need to sell securities in a down market. inflation wou...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Re: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

Would he prefer shariah compliant funds? They generally have higher fees, but would be more in line with his beliefs than what you are suggesting. He has $300k in income (maybe? you use the word income, but seem to indicate that this is actually cash?) and well over a million in real estate, he isn...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

1. I don't know when the market will go up, down or sideways 2. My asset allocation solved for this at 30 and will solve for it at 70... y'know, assuming great point. and one that is much clearer a propostition at younger age, but if you are like my father at 70 who needs growth, murkier situation.
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?
Replies: 33
Views: 4521

Father has 300k+ as a 68 year old. What investing strategy would you advise?

He has a 300k+ income. Three rental properties worth 450k+650k+ 650k. He made some bad investments in jnl annuities that gave him virtually no growth. I now have his money in a Vanguard account. TLDR My dad didn't put too much into passive investments, and got scammed when he did Weird misc: he is a...
by zetsui
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?
Replies: 37
Views: 3185

Re: Why should I be investing in a down or downing market for retirement?

If I had invested in 2007 and the market dropped, why would I invest more money? The indeces show negative returns for that year. once a major recession is underway and the indeces are likely to be negative for the year, You are using year end as an artificial mile post. What if stocks dropped by 5...