Search found 24 matches

by DollarvsGold
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight Consumer Staples and Tech According to Bridgewater?
Replies: 4
Views: 665

Overweight Consumer Staples and Tech According to Bridgewater?

I found this interesing article where a high-ranking Bridgewater employee says that nominal bonds are dead and one should go for TIPS and gold to diversify against stocks, which is a topic in itself. https://webreprints.djreprints.com/57558.html What I think is very interesting as well is the follow...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

I have worked hard against my own inclinations to tinker, tilt and ... can't think of another good word that starts with t. Anyway, I am now a proud owner of a 3-fund portfolio, with equities at world-market-cap weights and 60% TBM, due to declining need to take risk. The "bonds are dead"...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

One of the persistent frustrations I have with articles and analysis like this is that it routinely fails to specify the time horizon of the analysis. This is a big part of why we're all having such fun at Bridgewater's expense, since the All Weather portfolio claimed an infinite time horizon and l...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Maybe the linked article is exactly that? Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere -> switch to inflation linked bonds and (more) gold Very relevant, thank you. I have read all the comments. No single one addresses the issues mentioned in the Bridgewater paper, see ab...
by DollarvsGold
Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Very interesting for everyone who follows "All Weather" in one way or another is the fact, that the RPAR ETF https://rparetf.com/ which is inspired heavily by Bridgewater's All Weather and even hired former Bridgewater employees as far as I know, just INCREASED their exposure to nominal T...
by DollarvsGold
Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Maybe the linked article is exactly that? Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere -> switch to inflation linked bonds and (more) gold Very relevant, thank you. I have read all the comments. No single one addresses the issues mentioned in the Bridgewater paper, see ab...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

I think it is wrong that ( as far as I know , but I haven't looked very hard) Tony Robbins and Ray Dalio have failed to address this themselves. They should take responsibility for their recommendations. Tony Robbins wrote in 2014: I looked in Ray’s eyes, and a smile came across his face. “All righ...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Hello, Ray Dalio recently said "you would be pretty crazy to hold bonds now". Bridgewater, the company that runs the famous All Weather fund, published the following a few weeks ago It was discussed extensively several weeks ago when it was originally published. Here are some previous thr...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US TIPS as an European Investor
Replies: 4
Views: 362

Re: US TIPS as an European Investor

I'm from Europe and look for exposure to the US dollar ... I backtested TIPS via portfoliovisualizer and compared it with the Dollar Index. When the dollar had a bad year, TIPS usually performed well ... So it's a investment in the dollar with a "hedge" against a weak dollar! Does that ma...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US TIPS as an European Investor
Replies: 4
Views: 362

Re: US TIPS as an European Investor

The usual problem in econometrics is that the dependent and the independent variable are both correlated with some other, 3rd, variable that we have not modelled. Or 2 of the explanatory (independent) variables are in fact correlated. One could run the time series back to the first TIPS bonds (1998...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Long Bonds are still a good hedge against deflation. In fact the best hedge. We've been hearing about the inevitability of inflation, hyperinflation, bond market bubble, rising interest rates etc. since 2009-10ish. There was a conviction the previous Administration's policies would lead to hyperinf...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

The thing is "All Weather" has a huge allocation in long term treasury bonds (until now?), much higher than the standard 60/40 portfolio to reach risk parity. Now they publish the above article, saying to avoid nominal bonds. This is a revolution to their investment allocation... Thanks. ...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Hello, Ray Dalio recently said "you would be pretty crazy to hold bonds now". Bridgewater, the company that runs the famous All Weather fund, published the following a few weeks ago It was discussed extensively several weeks ago when it was originally published. Here are some previous thr...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

The thing is "All Weather" has a huge allocation in longterm treasury bonds (until now?), much higher thant the standard 60/40 portfolio to reach risk parity.
Now they publish the above article, saying to avoid nominal bonds. This is a revolution to their investment allocation...
by DollarvsGold
Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8153

The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Hello, Ray Dalio recently said "you would be pretty crazy to hold bonds now". Bridgewater, the company that runs the famous All Weather fund, published the following a few weeks ago, where they explain Dalio's statement in detail: https://www.bridgewater.com/grappling-with-the-new-reality-...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US TIPS as an European Investor
Replies: 4
Views: 362

US TIPS as an European Investor

Hi! I'm from Europe and look for exposure to the US dollar (so I don't want currency hedging). I figured out to invest in TIPS (for example TIP ETF) is one of the safest ways to do that, because if the dollar rises against the euro, I would profit (normally), but I noticed in a falling dollar enviro...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

One final question for you (or anyone else): I'm from Europe and look for exposure to the US dollar (so I don't want currency hedging). I figured out to invest in TIPS (for example TIP ETF) is one of the safest ways to do that, because if the dollar rises against the euro, I would profit (normally)...
by DollarvsGold
Mon Aug 10, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

One final question for you (or anyone else): I'm from Europe and look for exposure to the US dollar (so I don't want currency hedging). I figured out to invest in TIPS (for example TIP ETF) is one of the safest ways to do that, because if the dollar rises against the euro, I would profit (normally)...
by DollarvsGold
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

No, negative coupon bonds are virtually unheard of. Ok, but nominal yield (not real, inflation adjusted) is negative for most european bonds. Could you help me to understand that? That's actually easier to explain. Let's say they sell (auction) a 10 year bond that will pay $1 every 6 months as a co...
by DollarvsGold
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

Am I right in the assumption that most european bonds have a negative coupon at the moment (at least which shorter duration)? How does it work there? No, negative coupon bonds are virtually unheard of. Ok, but nominal yield (not real, inflation adjusted) is negative for most european bonds. Could y...
by DollarvsGold
Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

Am I right in the assumption that most european bonds have a negative coupon at the moment (at least which shorter duration)? How does it work there? No, negative coupon bonds are virtually unheard of. Ok, but nominal yield (not real, inflation adjusted) is negative for most european bonds. Could y...
by DollarvsGold
Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

Hello, not sure if this is the right place to ask this question, but I didn't want to open a new thread. I'm interested to invest in TIPS, in the form of the iShares TIP ETF. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239467/ishares-tips-bond-etf The real yield is about -1% at the moment. As far as I know...
by DollarvsGold
Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3821

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

Hello, not sure if this is the right place to ask this question, but I didn't want to open a new thread. I'm interested to invest in TIPS, in the form of the iShares TIP ETF. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239467/ishares-tips-bond-etf The real yield is about -1% at the moment. As far as I know,...