Search found 65 matches

by texasfight
Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Large Value Options
Replies: 16
Views: 1580

Re: Vanguard Large Value Options

VFVA is by far the most valuey. It holds a roughly equal small/mid/large split.

For pure large cap value you can use MGV (mega cap, so you are getting the 148 largest value stocks in market cap weight) or VTV (large cap, you are getting the 333 largest value stocks in market cap weight).
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

US small cap stocks beat large cap stocks by 5.5% annually in the 1970s and by 5% annually in the 2000s. And then everything changed and the economy has been completely different since with velocity of money collapsing, US household debt to income dropping significantly, savings rate up, and collap...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF
Replies: 41
Views: 3668

Re: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF

GOVZ will track the same index as ZROZ but at a much lower expense ratio, which will certainly make things interesting. Also BlackRock typically does a much better job of ensuring that market makers support the iShares ETFs than PIMCO typically does. The average bid/ask spread on ZROZ over the past...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF
Replies: 41
Views: 3668

Re: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF

EDV and ZROZ track slightly different indicies, and ZROZ has done slightly better than EDV since inception: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=ZROZ&benchmark=EDV GOVZ will track the same index as ZROZ but at a much lower expense ratio, which will certainly make ...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 251
Views: 18211

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

Even harder this time around when the treasury market blew up. I sold stocks to buy more long term treasury ETF's and long term TIPS ETF's cause I figured they would recover faster, and it mathematically did not make sense for them to drop the way they did in term of real yields going into a deflati...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Thread on value vs. growth. I expect value factor believers will continue to live in denial about the trajectory of the US economy. I do expect a short term period of value outperformance since the divergence is so wide (and real rates rising). If you are gonna stick to value, make sure to have a he...
by texasfight
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The most risk-on asset, regional banks KRE is green today, on a 20% VIX spike and long term treasuries rallying with America's favorite index QQQ down 5.7%. The Fed has created a TBTF casino and you wonder why we can't create economic growth? They should have nipped this options meltup in the butt w...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14516

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Omg. This is exhausting. Is it a bad idea to buy VTSAX? Yes or no? Because the answer is no, you are being cute. That's all. It’s a bad idea to buy ONLY VTSAX. Some people don’t know it’s a bad idea. Some people do it because of peer pressure and convince themselves it’s not a bad idea. Some people...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of capital in human history. This is coming from a newly minted 26 yr old millionaire who u...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30120

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Blowout ISM. Fed buying long end today to prevent curve steepening. It is almost like they want to blow an asset bubble. :wink:
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6987

Re: Easy money baby!

Honestly go all in. Not in tesla calls or single stocks like apple though. Diversified indices.

This is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of capital in US history, and you don't want to miss out.
by texasfight
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

10 real yield new lows, nasdaq all time highs. Remember that these are the same trade.
by texasfight
Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30120

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Let me tell you how much Apple is worth with a positive earnings yield at negative 30 yr real yields. Infinity. If a portfolio of US stocks and treasury bonds fails to keep going up and to the right from here on out, the US undergoes a sovereign default. Period. Luke Gromen is a great resource on th...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 4939

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30120

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

The difference between now and the 2000 tech bubble is all in real yields (there is no alternative now, and at a negative long term real yield a stock like Apple could effectively be worth infinity). Not to mention the fact that the Fed wants to blow an asset bubble right now to avoid a deflationary...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30120

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Literally this +10000. 100% agree, we better get used to high valuations May be you guys mean “get used to ever higher valuations”, because we are about to see Apple at $10T with substantially similar earnings to what they have now. That would require Apple’s stock price to go up 5x, which if their...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 4939

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

global crude demand will peak around 2030-2035 IMO. Eventually crude will get priced out of use by electric cars running off natural gas and solar. We are running out of cheap oil, US has one more drilling boom left when the massive production declines and loss of capital investment set us up for a ...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 4939

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

Buy TPL. Or MNRL and BSM if you are ok with exposure outside of Permian, and some natural gas exposure. E&P's are valued off of FCF multiples, yet their production is declining with fixed costs and they are running out of locations. Minerals made everyone who owned them rich in the US. And they ...
by texasfight
Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed wants inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 3054

Re: Fed wants inflation

Translation - "Sorry Gen Z - you missed the boat on owning assets. Better hope you are a getting an inheritance or are going to make over $250k/yr or you are sunk."

But don't worry you also won't get your social security benefits you paid in for 30 years when you retire so there's that.
by texasfight
Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which sites to use for financial news and watchlist tracking
Replies: 28
Views: 1879

Re: Which sites to use for financial news and watchlist tracking

Bogleheads for learning from ground up

Twitter for high level discussion with the smartest people in finance. Best seeking alpha authors are also on twitter I have noticed

Talking heads on TV and analysts on financial websites are actually the most clueless
by texasfight
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Factor ETF (opposite of VFVA)
Replies: 3
Views: 471

Growth Factor ETF (opposite of VFVA)

All, Does anyone have any suggestions for a growth factor ETF? I am basically looking for the opposite of VFVA (vanguard value factor ETF - this one has about the highest value loading you can find). I am looking for something to pair with it for rotation trades/overweight/underweight exposure trade...
by texasfight
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Re: Current state of TIPS market

New lows in 5 yr real yields this morning. Mega cap growth soaring.
by texasfight
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Re: Current state of TIPS market

The way TIPS buyers lose is by inflation coming in lower than breakevens currently priced in. Which is what I suspect will happen. This is the primary reasons TIPS have underperformed nominals for 20 years, inflation keeps underperforming. I do own TIPS and have wanted to add to them but negative y...
by texasfight
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 This is a ridiculous assertion by ...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3343
Views: 249901

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Small cap value will outperform in the short term due to rising real rates. But it will not recover the growth/value divergence going back to like 2008 like everyone likes to chart. DFA was never capturing some mystical premium, there was simply real economic growth occurring with positive real inte...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 Why do you think that "people...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 Why do you think that "people...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market. Lose? It's up 163% YTD. Haha if you could stomach the drawdown That's the price you have to be willing to pay, isn't it...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2915

Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection.

https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296 ... 70211?s=20
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not just mega cap tech. Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK. Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market. Lose? It's up 163% YTD. Haha if you could stomach the drawdown
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:06 pm
texasfight wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:39 pm Not just mega cap tech.

Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK.
Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D
Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market.

Nasdaq 100 futures is what I would hold
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10475
Views: 827709

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not just mega cap tech. Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK. Long duration/convexity of cash flows. Multiple expansion due to lower real yields. I expect Nasdaq 100 to trade over a 100x P/E multiple over the next decade. Basically if a stock/bond portfolio doesn't go up and to the right for new highs every...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz
Replies: 54
Views: 3752

Re: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz

Nb. that even if yields keep falling continuously at about the same rate that they have averaged over the last few decades, it's not going to be a miracle for intermediate term bond funds (nb. the average duration of BND/VBTLX is 6.6 years) - the break-even point for a single step change in rates i...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Zero Dividend Stock Investment
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: Zero Dividend Stock Investment

MGK etf - Mega Cap Growth
by texasfight
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8193

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Some perspectives on the death of US treasuries bonds, and for all those who say rates can't go lower. I think they can and will long term just like the last decade, but that they could still rise in the short term due to improving growth expectations, and stagflation/inflation fears. Maybe a new pe...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an ETF for equities with stable cash flows?
Replies: 23
Views: 987

Re: Is there an ETF for equities with stable cash flows?

Utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare are known as the "defensives".

Utilities are most like bond proxies, and are actually a decent value right now.
by texasfight
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 204
Views: 23036

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

Buy XLF and hedge with LTPZ vs. holding cash.

50-80% upside in XLF 1 year out.

There is a reason Buffett is buying Bank of America. He buys stuff when it is very difficult to lose money in the longer term and when returns are heavily skewed to the positive side.
by texasfight
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 204
Views: 23036

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I hold absolutely zero cash. People who have been risk averse have been slaughtered the past decade vs. asset price inflation. The future is persistent low or negative real real yields. Get ready for 100x P/E multiples on nasdaq 100 ETF's in a matter of years. https://twitter.com/TFMetals/status/129...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage
Replies: 10
Views: 891

Re: Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage

So you're telling me it isn't an awesome risk free return :D

Thanks for the answers. I was thinking of a no down payment, interest only loan.