Search found 319 matches

by burritoLover
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging the 2020 Election
Replies: 84
Views: 5080

Re: Hedging the 2020 Election

Biden, Harris, Trump, and Pence could all die on Nov. 2nd and the market is not going to crash 30%. Why? Because government will continue to function, business will continue to function, and future earnings are unlikely to be impacted by this event. I'd be much more worried about a massive second wa...
by burritoLover
Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6563

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

You're wasting your breath on the "live off the dividends" crowd. It doesn't matter how much evidence or rational thought you present to them, they will choose to believe what they want to believe.
by burritoLover
Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 2056

Re: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe

Watching the recording on facebook, appears to abruptly cut off at the end in the middle of someone talking. I don't hardly ever use facebook so maybe I'm doing something wrong.
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: role of dividends in retirement withdrawal strategy
Replies: 32
Views: 2082

Re: role of dividends in retirement withdrawal strategy

Dividends are effectively the same as if the government forced you to sell a portion of your stock every quarter. If in a taxable account, you then get the privilege of paying taxes on that forced sale. Reinvestment of dividends is like forcing you to sell stock and then immediately buy it back. It ...
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 55
Views: 4150

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

Because if it didn't, you could simply buy a stock the day before the ex-div date and sell on the ex-div date and pocket the dividend. You could do this with a number of stocks and rake in the cash if that opportunity wasn't arbitraged away in the market. There is no dividend fairy. Dividends don't...
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"
Replies: 25
Views: 1984

Re: Small Cap Value Fans: "Morningstar's Take on the Third Quarter"

$10k in 2000:
TSM: 6.33%, $35,752
SCV: 8.29%, $52,183

$10k in 1980:
TSM: 11.31%, $786,522
SCV: 12.91%, $1,409,621
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 55
Views: 4150

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

Because if it didn't, you could simply buy a stock the day before the ex-div date and sell on the ex-div date and pocket the dividend. You could do this with a number of stocks and rake in the cash if that opportunity wasn't arbitraged away in the market.
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 2056

Re: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe

TravelGeek wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:57 am
burritoLover wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 am Will this be recorded and put up on youtube at some point?
Not sure about Youtube, but the page says “Facebook Live - Watch now or catch the replay”, so it definitely will be recorded.
great - thanks!
by burritoLover
Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 2056

Re: ChooseFI Facebook event tonight: MONEY TALKS with Rick Ferri, Paul Merriman, and Larry Swedroe

Rick Ferri wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:37 am
burritoLover wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:41 am Will this be recorded and put up on youtube at some point?
I honestly don't know if there will be a recording. Sorry.

Rick Ferri
Ok - thank you.
by burritoLover
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in S&P 500 & Ride the tide
Replies: 52
Views: 7145

Re: All in S&P 500 & Ride the tide

It's easy to be all-in on the S&P 500 after a decade of incredible (and nearly improbable) performance. Try saying that after 13+ years of it underperforming 1-month t-bills, which is has occurred 3 times previously, or half of the last 90 years.
by burritoLover
Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness will be our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 60
Views: 4005

Re: Cliff Asness will be our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

My question is if you are carrying a value tilt through the accumulation and retirement phases, is there a benefit in diversifying across large, small, U.S. and ex-us value to reduce volatility (compared to all-in on small value)?
by burritoLover
Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard MF TLH Partners
Replies: 10
Views: 504

Re: Vanguard MF TLH Partners

Another reason (like me) are your 401k options for bonds suck (front/back end loads and high ER). And I don't particularly want bonds in a Roth IRA.
by burritoLover
Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

An earlier poster (Actin?) to this thread asked: "International investing is a catch 22. It has underperformed the past 13 years, so anyone that dumps it is performance chasing and if you're holding it because you think it's going to change, you're market timing." Excellent observation for almost a...
by burritoLover
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]
Replies: 157
Views: 15854

Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% in one day when Kennedy was assassinated and recovered all its losses two days later. Doubt Trump's covid is even a blip on the radar.
by burritoLover
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

It's kind of ironic that some investors who buy into the idea that index funds are superior to actively managed funds can also be the same investors who actively trade into and out of index funds to chase performance. I see what you are saying but I would wager that the majority of people here beli...
by burritoLover
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather vs 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1525

Re: All Weather vs 3-fund portfolio

If only you could just backtest a number of portfolios and just pick the one with the highest return. It doesn't work that way.
by burritoLover
Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

It's kind of ironic that some investors who buy into the idea that index funds are superior to actively managed funds can also be the same investors who actively trade into and out of index funds to chase performance.
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11075

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

There’s no way to know you are in a bubble when you’re in it. Even if you suspect you might be in one, it can go on for years and years (assuming you are even right and that’s a big assumption). Solution: have a well diversified portfolio that you can feel confident pumping money into whether you ar...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

I keep Ex-US. Though I really wonder if the 40% recommended by Vanguard is the right choice. Just a few years ago recommendation was 20-40%, Jack Bogle recommended 20% if any. Warren Buffet recommends 0%. Who is right? I suspect, no one knows nothing which makes the decision of what is right for me...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

You know, we had a whole thread on the article that came from, and my takeaway was that the chart you're showing was really misleading. The relationship isn't a forward-looking return based on backward-looking data. It's curve-fitting on the actual data. See my post explaining here. Interesting - t...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Don’t get me wrong, it would make sense that when valuations are high returns are lower. But as I believe you agree with me, just because country A has a lower PE then country B does not mean country A will outperform country B. Therefor CAPE is not a convincing reason that international will outpe...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

1) CAPE has been predicting low returns in the US for the last decade and just been flat out wrong 2) CAPE of US vs International CAPE may not play out and also has not played out as predicted. Just because international has a lower PE does not mean it will outperform US something that this graph d...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

No. CAPE has been a very poor predictor of future results. Its fun to talk about, but I would not base any of my investing on CAPE. Seems like a pretty good predictor to me. https://i.postimg.cc/YqHDyNgj/cape.jpg Where did your chart come from? There were only 15 ten-year periods between 1995 and 2...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

1) CAPE has been predicting low returns in the US for the last decade and just been flat out wrong 2) CAPE of US vs International CAPE may not play out and also has not played out as predicted. Just because international has a lower PE does not mean it will outperform US something that this graph d...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

1) CAPE has been predicting low returns in the US for the last decade and just been flat out wrong 2) CAPE of US vs International CAPE may not play out and also has not played out as predicted. Just because international has a lower PE does not mean it will outperform US something that this graph d...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

No. CAPE has been a very poor predictor of future results. Its fun to talk about, but I would not base any of my investing on CAPE. Seems like a pretty good predictor to me. https://i.postimg.cc/pdNWSQCr/The-Remarkable-Accuracy-of-CAPE-as-a-Predictor-of-Returns-Articles-Advisor-P.jpg Your pic is mi...
by burritoLover
Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 202
Views: 18366

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 3:14 pm No. CAPE has been a very poor predictor of future results. Its fun to talk about, but I would not base any of my investing on CAPE.
Seems like a pretty good predictor to me.

Image
by burritoLover
Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
Replies: 31
Views: 5178

Re: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering

I think it might be worthwhile to just set this speech in full http://johncbogle.com/speeches/JCB_Morningstar_6-02.pdf as a forum-wide auto-reply whenever anyone says they're considering tilting. Or when someone wants to invest in any international? ...and then add three 25% alternative classes tha...
by burritoLover
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what networth is okay to splurge on a 200k car ? (Tesla roadster)
Replies: 159
Views: 10655

Re: At what networth is okay to splurge on a 200k car ? (Tesla roadster)

I assume you are talking about the upcoming Roadster. You could probably buy it, play with it for awhile, and sell it pretty close to what you paid for it (less tax). Tesla's have excellent resale value - even the more pedestrian model 3 loses about 10% of its value after 3 years which is incredible.
by burritoLover
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley, "clones" and future prospects
Replies: 15
Views: 1684

Re: Wellesley, "clones" and future prospects

Just say no to active management
by burritoLover
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 12842

Re: Myth's of international investing - Fidelity

There are legitimate tax disadvantages when investing outside of the U.S., even in a tax advantaged account.
by burritoLover
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery
Replies: 67
Views: 6724

Re: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery

I have to admit I was very taken by an analogy the other day... in an interview with Joshua W. Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management on NPR's Planet Money: BROWN: And I’m now going to give you my favorite analogy. So a woman is walking through Central Park, and she’s got a dog. What’s a very active k...
by burritoLover
Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6769

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

Pick something reasonable and stick with it for decades without changing anything. If that's 0% international - so be it, just don't go changing when U.S. underperforms, even if it underperforms for many years.
by burritoLover
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 12842

Re: Myth's of international investing - Fidelity

That's not a balanced perspective. There are certainly downsides to investing outside your home country that should be taken into consideration.
by burritoLover
Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Examples of High Yielding Stocks that did not cut dividend
Replies: 8
Views: 977

Re: Examples of High Yielding Stocks that did not cut dividend

Escapevelocity wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:44 pm But, I'd also like to know of examples where stocks yielded above 10% and in the long term after that, never cut the dividend and where the situation played out favorably for investors that got in at that level of yield.
You do realize that the stock price drops by the dividend payout, right?
by burritoLover
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get over finance envy
Replies: 377
Views: 51353

Re: How to get over finance envy

The only thing worse than being jealous of the spending of others is taking the self-righteous perspective that you are somehow better than them because you might have less debt or more retirement savings (which in most cases you probably don't know for sure anyway). Agree, I think the latter state...
by burritoLover
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get over finance envy
Replies: 377
Views: 51353

Re: How to get over finance envy

The only thing worse than being jealous of the spending of others is taking the self-righteous perspective that you are somehow better than them because you might have less debt or more retirement savings (which in most cases you probably don't know for sure anyway).
by burritoLover
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 188
Views: 19295

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

If you believe the markets will be volatile due to the upcoming election, then you buy before the election not after all the uncertainty has been removed.
by burritoLover
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Motley Fool Rule Breakers
Replies: 1
Views: 370

Re: Opinion on Motley Fool Rule Breakers

Anything that is selling you stock picks is garbage.
by burritoLover
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any further reason to hold DLS?
Replies: 32
Views: 2296

Re: Any further reason to hold DLS?

I generally believe in the concept of diversifying one's portfolio with other asset classes even though they may undergo long periods of underperformance. The question is when does one jettison a losing asset class. I think I have been patient for 14 years having tied up a large amount of money in ...
by burritoLover
Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10937

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Some haystacks are better, more stable and safer to be around than others. Ask any farmer. https://i.postimg.cc/Y0JJxG7d/Screen-Hunter-01-Sep-14-20-31.jpg They probably aren't very stable when they are abnormally large. Something tells me you haven't lived on many farms. How about abnormally large ...
by burritoLover
Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10937

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

AlwaysLearningMore wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:37 pm Some haystacks are better, more stable and safer to be around than others. Ask any farmer.

Image
They probably aren't very stable when they are abnormally large.
by burritoLover
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2607

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

The moment the stuff that is CURRENTLY OUTPERFORMING starts to wane in performance, switch over to VTSAX, which is where all of us have been all along. There is literally no possible way to have a total account value less than if he had started with VTSAX, which is currently UNDERPERFORMING (by com...
by burritoLover
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2607

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

The moment your performance chasing begins to fail, switch to the benchmark. That doesn't work. If it was that easy, then millions of other investors would just arbitrage that opportunity away. Read the whole OP, read my WHOLE response. Your reply is a complete non-sequitur. TNWoods I did - nothing...
by burritoLover
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2800

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

We need more investors to tilt to growth so the future crash will be epic.
by burritoLover
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2607

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

TNWoods wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:50 pm The moment your performance chasing begins to fail, switch to the benchmark.
That doesn't work. If it was that easy, then millions of other investors would just arbitrage that opportunity away.