Search found 118 matches

by wackerdr
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

20 day volatility = Standard Deviation of daily returns for past 20 trading days. inverse volatility = 1 / volatility = 1/ Standard Deviation Rebalancing using inverse volatility = portfolio allocation of an ETF = inverse volatility of the ETF / sum of inverse volatility of both ETFs. Refer to Sect...
by wackerdr
Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I take short term gains and face the taxes?
Replies: 94
Views: 4660

Re: Should I take short term gains and face the taxes?

put options and/or stop or trailing stop orders . use that to cover you or get out if the market tanks. If it does't then at the year mark you can move by pieces out of the position over time that best fit taxes when they are at the long capital gains rate. Why lock in the tax loss before you have ...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US citizen investing in India
Replies: 28
Views: 1858

Re: US citizen investing in India

Actually, there are minimums which you can be below and have no need to file. Thank you for the correction. I'll fix the post upthread. The topic author's holding here is apparently above these minimums. I suppose another worry is Schedule B part III for any foreign accounts? The " You must complet...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Riding the Tech Bubble
Replies: 20
Views: 2425

Re: Riding the Tech Bubble

Lets say I believe that nasdaq is in a bubble right now and I would like to ride the bubble with TQQQ. I believe the bubble will pop at some point but would like to make lots of money as it continues going up. Will I have enough time to jump out when it pops? Whats the best way to navigate this? Do...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Riding the Tech Bubble
Replies: 20
Views: 2425

Re: Riding the Tech Bubble

Lets say I believe that nasdaq is in a bubble right now and I would like to ride the bubble with TQQQ. I believe the bubble will pop at some point but would like to make lots of money as it continues going up. Will I have enough time to jump out when it pops? Whats the best way to navigate this? Do...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intermittent fasting: 2 meals to 1 meal a day?
Replies: 23
Views: 2191

Re: Intermittent fasting: 2 meals to 1 meal a day?

Are any of you diabetic? What has been the impact on blood sugar levels?
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

The economy has made a fundamental shift. And comparing Tech companies to Japanese stocks, oil, or any other "hot investment" in past years is not a fair comparison. Why not? They are the sexy picks now just like all those mentioned were at one time. What's done better than US tech stocks the last ...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

Past performance doesn’t foretell future performance - except when we talk about QQQ which lost 80% from its peak. :D
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

You're right. I don't know why the QQQ didn't swap to small-value in 2000; clearly those were the superior growth opportunities moving forward. The QQQ has 5 stocks that make up half of the index, you think it will boot one or all of them that quickly? Do you think the companies on-bench are that u...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

i take it you never heard of the nifty fifty? those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Wasn't the Nifty Fifty static as opposed to the Nasdaq 100? To answer the question no one knows the answer. "Generals are always prepared to fight the last war." — Winston S. Churchill You'r...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

i take it you never heard of the nifty fifty? those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Wasn't the Nifty Fifty static as opposed to the Nasdaq 100? To answer the question no one knows the answer. "Generals are always prepared to fight the last war." — Winston S. Churchill You'r...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

i take it you never heard of the nifty fifty? those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Wasn't the Nifty Fifty static as opposed to the Nasdaq 100? To answer the question no one knows the answer. "Generals are always prepared to fight the last war." — Winston S. Churchill You'r...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?
Replies: 72
Views: 3825

Re: Will Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Outperform VTI?

If you had invested $10,000 in QQQ at inception in March 1999, and someone else had bought the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX, same as VTI) at the same time, you would have experienced the bubble and collapse. Two years later you would have been behind, and you would have stayed behi...
by wackerdr
Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please review my de-risking/cash-out plan
Replies: 111
Views: 5474

Re: Please review my de-risking/cash-out plan

So if I summarize your de-risking strategy:

1. Current portfolio is 1.5 M
2. Anytime the portfolio crosses a certain % growth. - say 5%, i bank 50% of the gains into cash or TIPS/ CDs

Overall AA will increasingly become more conservative.

I think it is a good plan to glide towards lower risk.
by wackerdr
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please review my de-risking/cash-out plan
Replies: 111
Views: 5474

Re: Please review my de-risking/cash-out plan

I would keep it simple. If 2 years EF doesn’t feel comfortable, add an additional year. Get the best insurance - health, umbrella, home , auto - to ensure your out of pocket expenses are predictable. May be a term life insurance for the remainder amount of mortgage , if you don’t have it already. Th...
by wackerdr
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Approach to "News" Consumption
Replies: 82
Views: 4413

Re: Approach to "News" Consumption

The biggest change in my lifetime, for me, is the ability to access and distill "the news". When I first began watching televised news and reading the newspaper (approx 1965) I felt most sources from TV (e.g., WBAY from Green Bay or WLUC from Marquette) delivered equivalent content. Our morning pap...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is there a way I can check the chart displayed in the very first post? Just pointing in the right direction would suffice thanks. This should give you a rough idea of how he's doing: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2019&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&las...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won the game
Replies: 49
Views: 7590

Re: Won the game

What does winning the game means precisely? Objectively: You have paid off house You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs.. Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums Long term care insurance 25 - 30x annual expenses The amount varies for every individual, but you are cover...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

... 5. Because of circuit breakers , it is not possible to lose entire balance in a single day. But it is possible that TQQQ /UPRO stays at abysmally low levels even with QQQ or SPY increases. A simulation of dot com crisis where QQQ lost 80% is instructive. QQQ recovered in time, to give the retur...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

... 5. Because of circuit breakers , it is not possible to lose entire balance in a single day. But it is possible that TQQQ /UPRO stays at abysmally low levels even with QQQ or SPY increases. A simulation of dot com crisis where QQQ lost 80% is instructive. QQQ recovered in time, to give the retur...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

... This is what I have been doing since June. 1. Started with 10% of my portfolio. Now it is about 12.15% of my portfolio. Got about 35% returns. Running a TQQQ + TMF in 70-30 ratio. 2. This is the amount of money that I am mentally prepared to lose. It would not materially alter my retirement pla...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm aware Hedgefundie stopped posting here some time ago. I can see that his last update on the 18th of march shows a significant drop in value. Would it be safe to say this strategy has blown up during the last bit of volatility? Can anybody tell me how the portfolio would have performed after the...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706436

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Steve723 wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:49 am Something just feels wrong about all of this. My net worth is the highest its ever been - higher than the pre-covid highs. I realize there may be rational explanations for this, but it just doesn't "feel" right.
I hear you, I mentally reduce it by 30%.
by wackerdr
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large pay cut for better quality of life
Replies: 82
Views: 7485

Re: Large pay cut for better quality of life

I am considering leaving a job that pays $340k/year and relocating for a job that pays $120k/year. I would be grateful for a sanity check from this community. Background - DW and I are 34, kids are 4 and 3 Current annual income - Him: $340k. I have been in this job for several years (with some sign...
by wackerdr
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won the game
Replies: 49
Views: 7590

Re: Won the game

What does winning the game means precisely? Objectively: You have paid off house You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs.. Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums Long term care insurance 25 - 30x annual expenses The amount varies for every individual, but you are cover...
by wackerdr
Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won the game
Replies: 49
Views: 7590

Re: Won the game

What does winning the game means precisely? Objectively: You have paid off house You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs.. Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums Long term care insurance 25 - 30x annual expenses The amount varies for every individual, but you are cover...
by wackerdr
Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won the game
Replies: 49
Views: 7590

Re: Won the game

What does winning the game means precisely? Objectively: You have paid off house You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs.. Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums Long term care insurance 25 - 30x annual expenses The amount varies for every individual, but you are cover...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 4431

Re: Why not Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund?

I am in on Large Growth. Everything about the postCovid world seems like an investment environment where Growth, and specifically Large Growth succeeds. Why isn't this all "priced in"? “Priced in” .. probably the most frequently used phrase on BH. So what is NOT priced in? Value stocks? If so, why ...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 4431

Re: Why not Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund?

I am in on Large Growth. Everything about the postCovid world seems like an investment environment where Growth, and specifically Large Growth succeeds. Why isn't this all "priced in"? “Priced in” .. probably the most frequently used phrase on BH. So what is NOT priced in? Value stocks? If so, why ...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: PFIC and expat US citizen investing in non-US domiciled funds
Replies: 16
Views: 928

Re: PFIC and expat US citizen investing in non-US domiciled funds

If you are resident of the US - Citizen or not, you fall under FATCA reporting, report FBAR and need to be aware of PFIC issues. If you are not a US Resident and not a US citizen, you don't fall under PFIC even if you invest in US equity. If it is a couple with one of them non-resident, it does comp...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500
Replies: 51
Views: 3663

Re: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500

But then you discover that Bogleheads disapprove of you owning 23 active large cap growth funds, so you decide to consolidate down to just a dozen or so. Why would anyone do anything only because bogleheads disapprove . :D ? I have 70% in FBGRX (very similar to FDGRX) since 2005 and I am not changi...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice
Replies: 88
Views: 8008

Re: Career advice

Ok Bogleheads. Need a little advice. I’ve been in a job for 2.5 years, my former boss retired end of June. This Tuesday I have a meeting with my new boss and the next level boss about ‘concerns’ with me and my department after she met with my team individually on job duties. I feel like I’m about t...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500
Replies: 51
Views: 3663

Re: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500

But then you discover that Bogleheads disapprove of you owning 23 active large cap growth funds, so you decide to consolidate down to just a dozen or so. Why would anyone do anything only because bogleheads disapprove . :D ? I have 70% in FBGRX (very similar to FDGRX) since 2005 and I am not changi...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500
Replies: 51
Views: 3663

Re: FDGRX - Growth Fund vs. SP500

But then you discover that Bogleheads disapprove of you owning 23 active large cap growth funds, so you decide to consolidate down to just a dozen or so. Why would anyone do anything only because bogleheads disapprove . :D ? I have 70% in FBGRX (very similar to FDGRX) since 2005 and I am not changi...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a House or Continue Renting
Replies: 9
Views: 1434

Re: Buy a House or Continue Renting

My wife and I currently rent a 1BR apartment and are debating if we continue to do so or buy a starter home. We are in our mid-late 20s and live in a HCOL area. Kids are probably 4-5 years away. We currently pay ~$2800/month for a nice apartment that we like but both would like to have a house (mor...
by wackerdr
Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for input and maybe reality check
Replies: 12
Views: 814

Re: Looking for input and maybe reality check

Here is where I am. - 47 years old, CPA in public accounting for 20+ years. Partner in a large regional firm. Making a very good income especially the last few years after moving up the ladder ($250k plus annually). Burnt out and tired of it. - Wife is 45 and a nurse by training who was stay at hom...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of buying a vacation home in NC mountains and doing Airbnb. Bad idea?
Replies: 66
Views: 6822

Re: Thinking of buying a vacation home in NC mountains and doing Airbnb. Bad idea?

I've been mulling the idea of owning a 2nd home in the NC mountains (likely close to Beech/Banner Elk or Sugar Mountain) with the intent for it to be used by our (extended) family 6-10 weeks per year, and then possibly rent it out when we are not using it. My in-laws are also interested in this ide...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706436

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do guys in this thread dabble in individual stocks as well? I have an itch that I need to scratch (with around 1% of my portfolio). Let's hear it: what stocks/ETFs can you recommend for a short term (1-3 years) growth? Some people here are messing around with the QQQ etf mainly. I started a positio...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706436

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do guys in this thread dabble in individual stocks as well? I have an itch that I need to scratch (with around 1% of my portfolio). Let's hear it: what stocks/ETFs can you recommend for a short term (1-3 years) growth? Some people here are messing around with the QQQ etf mainly. I started a positio...
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing for someone who never leased a car
Replies: 33
Views: 2713

Re: Leasing for someone who never leased a car

You can also buy extended warranty on top of manufacture warranty for about 1000 dollars per about 20k worth of car. This would get you 5 years / 60k or even 6 years / 100k for some makes.It would still be cheaper than lease , IMO .
by wackerdr
Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing for someone who never leased a car
Replies: 33
Views: 2713

Re: Leasing for someone who never leased a car

I never leased a car, and the economics doesn’t make sense , particularly if you view car as getting you from point A to point B. Further, some makes and models - BMW, and some luxury ones - are less reliable than others after 4 years or cost a bomb to repair. So it makes sense to lease them and be ...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706436

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

According to the 2019 10-K, a lot comes from Windows PCs and associated "productivity" software. But we are talking past each other at this point. Let me phrase this another way: if Windows revenue went to $0 tomorrow, Microsoft would lose at most 10-15% of its market value. Microsoft is a trillion...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Concentration risk over-rated?
Replies: 107
Views: 4061

Re: Concentration risk over-rated?

This is anecdotal based on a tiny sample size and so it is hard to evaluate your claim. If you either make a quantitative definition of “quality stocks” so one can test the claim systematically based on previous data, or record predictions going forward about a large number of stocks you subjective...
by wackerdr
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5774

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

The last decade has been something of a gold rush in bringing the physical world online. New habits have been created: how you shop, how you date, etc. New brands have been created: Uber, Tinder, etc. As with any gold rush, the people selling the tools get rich. Those tools are largely marketing (G...
by wackerdr
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

hilink73 wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:12 pm
wackerdr wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:45 pm I am long on TQQQ/TMF in 70:30 since June in my IRA . It has done really well with about 35% increase in portfolio size ,
June which year?
This year.
by wackerdr
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6395
Views: 591962

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Let me ask this: Is anyone beginning to see the flaws of going long on leveraged ETFs and the advantages of instead going short on leveraged ETFs? I'm not sure they're "flaws" or "advantages". They're just changes in various exposures. Going long LETFs maintains leverage, which decreases exposure a...
by wackerdr
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 190
Views: 24299

Re: Diversification Regret Index

I've updated the chart in the OP to reflect returns through 7/31. https://i.imgur.com/0dIBXlj.png As a reminder, the index measures the "regret" a globally and factor diversified investor would feel by comparing their portfolio returns to the S&P 500. For many, probably most, investors "staying the...
by wackerdr
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a House in Sellers Market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1978

Re: Buying a House in Sellers Market?

Sell now in a sellers market. Then rent. Wait for a buyers market or for the right oppurtinity regardless of market. Always danger in market timing. What if the buyer's market doesn't come for 5+ years? Housing prices when they crash they take a looong time to recover. I bought at peak in 2006 in C...
by wackerdr
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much home can I afford?
Replies: 46
Views: 4159

Re: How much home can I afford?

Why bother with house purchase, unless rental is more expensive? I don’t sense an emotional motive for home ownership. Whether intended or not, it really is a bet on the upside of SFO real estate appreciation. In such case, transactional cost of selling need to be considered and do a classic rent vs...