Search found 316 matches

by jason2459
Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Noneth...
by jason2459
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 90
Views: 4638

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

Because we don’t know our sequence of returns until it happens, we have to make a plan and assumptions. And the data supports that high equity portfolios significantly outperform low equity portfolios. Rick Ferri and Jack Bogle have both talked about how they wish they had just stayed in equities (...
by jason2459
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 90
Views: 4638

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

We can cherry pick the times we look at using backtesting. We cannot cherry pick our investing years. So I have to disagree that 100% stocks is "always better". For a bunch of folks who were invested between 2000 and about 2015...that would not be true. I agree that in the long run 100% stocks will...
by jason2459
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40
Replies: 90
Views: 4638

Re: 100% Stocks - S&P Envy vs 60/40

We can cherry pick the times we look at using backtesting. We cannot cherry pick our investing years. So I have to disagree that 100% stocks is "always better". For a bunch of folks who were invested between 2000 and about 2015...that would not be true. I agree that in the long run 100% stocks will...
by jason2459
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Don't abandon ship yet. Close to 1.8 million increase on payrolls and unemployment rate fell to 10.2% in July. Both beating expectations.
by jason2459
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Will the S&P close above 3300 today? We’ll see in a few minutes. I'll let you know what I predict in 20 minutes. Looking like a nice little melt up at the end. 3300 for sure, but NASDAQ has to wait for 11,000. I think you're right. I'll say 3306.51 :moneybag One hour to the close. What’s your predi...
by jason2459
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

That's an excellent question ... I know some of the miners like Newmont (NEM), Barrack(GOLD) and Agnico Eagle(AEM) are rather large companies and you would think they should be part of the index. Curious to see if anyone knows the answer to this. NEM is in S&P 500. I didn't see the others in ITOT, ...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Why do people keep posting Gold Bear sentiments with the market at all time highs AGAIN! More of us are becoming Gold Bulls everyday. I continue to adjust my AA - moving Gold to stocks - but it appears there is no stopping this Bull! I own decent chunk of physical gold that I purchased at an averag...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:59 pm
jason2459 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:58 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:57 pm
Talk about a lost decade. Finally getting back to 2011 prices.
Just wait till 1981 comes back. Inflation adjusted that was the highest peak.
True. Basically no return for 4 decades.
Basically. Darn you got my pre-edit. Edited I didn't sound so snarky. lol
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:57 pm
Talk about a lost decade. Finally getting back to 2011 prices.
.

Inflation adjusted 1981 was the highest peak.
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

In all seriousness, the Gold $1600 Oz - When? thread has become obsolete! A new thread was needed. I personally have a small allocation to Gold. Do you own physical gold that you store in a vault, or do you own an ETF such as GLD, or do you own stock in gold mining companies? Not miners. If you're ...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 87
Views: 4060

Re: Gold continues to soar!

This should be a fun thread. I love the soaring and free falling threads.
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

S&P down just a tad.... that means it's on the peak of soaring! Even the S&P needs to take the occasional bathroom break. Only question is, is it #1 or #2? Will the S&P close above 3300 today? We’ll see in a few minutes. I'll let you know what I predict in 20 minutes. Looking like a nice little mel...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:42 pm
Robot Monster wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:06 am
A_Bond wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:01 am
S&P down just a tad.... that means it's on the peak of soaring!
Even the S&P needs to take the occasional bathroom break. Only question is, is it #1 or #2?
Will the S&P close above 3300 today?

We’ll see in a few minutes.
I'll let you know what I predict in 20 minutes.
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Specific date range return on VTSAX
Replies: 8
Views: 666

Re: Specific date range return on VTSAX

Portfolio visualizer July 2017 to July 2020 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2017&firstMonth=7&endYear=2020&lastMonth=7&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=580000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercen...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Brokerage for buying VG/Fido/? MF Without Fees?
Replies: 11
Views: 544

Re: Best Brokerage for buying VG/Fido/? MF Without Fees?

I like E-Trade for it's variety of no load and NTF mutual funds including many of the Vanguard admiral funds.
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%
Replies: 27
Views: 2174

Re: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%

At some point the rates become so low that it isn't even worse the hassle of a separate "high yield" savings account. Still higher then my normal bank's 0.01% with a whopping bonus rate of 0.02%. Right, but depending on how much you keep in the account, I could see it as not being worth the trouble...
by jason2459
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%
Replies: 27
Views: 2174

Re: Marcus lowers savings APY from 1.05% to 0.8%

alfaspider wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:11 am
At some point the rates become so low that it isn't even worse the hassle of a separate "high yield" savings account.
Still higher then my normal bank's 0.01% with a whopping bonus rate of 0.02%.
by jason2459
Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Going down. The S&P will be up about 0.15% for the day, closing at 3,276. I will vote for a melt-up. S&P up 0.95%, NASDAQ up 1.5% I predict S&P up .72% and Nasdaq up 1.47% And I pre(post-?)dict MSFT +$11.53 (+5.62%), AAPL +10.72 (+2.52%). :D Another red letter day!! So much easier to predict once i...
by jason2459
Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

CurlyDave wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:36 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:26 pm
Going down. The S&P will be up about 0.15% for the day, closing at 3,276.
I will vote for a melt-up. S&P up 0.95%, NASDAQ up 1.5%
I predict S&P up .72% and Nasdaq up 1.47%
by jason2459
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Its amazing how disconnected the US stock market is to the fundemental economics of major economies. Its frankly extremely worrying while companies like Apple hit new marks and 2 million value mark, World economies are contracting faster and ever before. If this continues into the third quarter i a...
by jason2459
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TreasuryDirect scammed me? :-)
Replies: 25
Views: 2942

Re: TreasuryDirect scammed me? :-)

So at least 100*5*1.00531 = $502. That's the "original principal". That is the right calculation for the current “adjusted principal”, and it’s the notional principal that would be used to calculate the coupon payment. But at maturity you get at least the “original principal”, which is the $111. It...
by jason2459
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5718

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

In the last TIPS auction I certainly saw positive yield on 10 year tips.
by jason2459
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley buying E*TRADE
Replies: 53
Views: 5090

Re: Morgan Stanley buying E*TRADE

I've called into E-Trade a few times. Each time was good. I actually asked them on one call why their rates dropped so much and why they weren't even trying to be competitive anymore. I have a "premium" account that wasn't super high yield but at least was higher then your typical bank. The way thei...
by jason2459
Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5718

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

I can't think of a safer more stable investment then TIPS or I bonds. You are protected from ever losing purchasing power in any kind of deflationary or inflationary environment as long as you don't cash out early with the upside of potentially earning interest.
by jason2459
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5718

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

With US GDP down 32% and unemployment in double digits, I see a greater risk of deflation from collapsed spending, which historically accounted for over 50% of economic activity. If TIPS are pegged to the inflation rate, what return/benefit is to be expected? TIPS and I bonds will protect against d...
by jason2459
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 5718

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

I still see little need for short term tips. With short term bills and bonds turn over keeping up nominally. I did go in on an intermediate term TIPS mutual fund and feel comfortable with it and understand it. It is a bridge until this next part is complete. I am looking at building a ladder of indi...
by jason2459
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:43 am
The bond market is saying loud & clear: S&P 500 1,900
With out mega tech and with out fed money injected we probably would be there. Main street and Wall Street are pretty disconnected now more then normal. We are in a recession with rising markets.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering switch from Vanguard to eTrade...pros, cons and other input?
Replies: 124
Views: 10843

Re: Considering switch from Vanguard to eTrade...pros, cons and other input?

I don't like the E-Trade app. I always just use the website and works fine on phone or desktop.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering switch from Vanguard to eTrade...pros, cons and other input?
Replies: 124
Views: 10843

Re: Considering switch from Vanguard to eTrade...pros, cons and other input?

I’m with E*Trade and have only one complaint: I was unable to invest in Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Admiral shares even though I had way over the minimum Admiral dollar investment. They don’t offer Admiral class shares of this fund. I could only buy the Investor class shares, so that’s what I in...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12256

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Gold doesn't keep up with anything. Its value is only what someone else says it is. Nothing more. Which is the same of every asset except one you produce and consume yourself. There is a difference when there are sales and earnings to back up the speculative pricing. With gold it has neither or jus...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12256

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Isn't the whole point of gold that it keeps up with inflation? Wouldn't adjusting it's price for inflation defeat the purpose? I'm not sure if this is intended for a laugh. Portfoliovisualizer shows gold having an 18 year and 11 month drawdown of over 61% nominal. Their information shows it being u...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12256

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Gold trading at $1,980.24 per ounce as of 7/29/2020 at 14:40 EST. Buy Low, Sell High. Just my opinion, but now would be a great time to sell gold... if you're into market timing and what not. The gold bull market doesn't properly start until $3,000 an ounce; better to be a passenger than a bystande...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Apple beats nicely and announcing a 4-1 split
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12256

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Gold trading at $1,980.24 per ounce as of 7/29/2020 at 14:40 EST. Buy Low, Sell High. Just my opinion, but now would be a great time to sell gold... if you're into market timing and what not. The gold bull market doesn't properly start until $3,000 an ounce; better to be a passenger than a bystande...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7459
Views: 606558

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

To much unknowns today to drop that big. I can see a melt up to close with FOMO before the FAAA earnings.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

lostdog wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 am
We have a reversal in movement. The bulls are fighting off the bears.
I could see a melt up to closing on FOMO before the FAAA announcements.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) Index for Kid
Replies: 32
Views: 1647

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) Index for Kid

chrisdds98 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:27 am
000 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:02 pm
VT in taxable gets no foreign tax credit.
yes, this was my understanding as well. Is this not correct? I do vti/vxus in taxable because of this
It is correct.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

if markets are forward looking, then why do past GDP numbers cause todays down turn? I don't think it's the GDP. I think the answer is too political for this place. There is some of that but not as much as other bad news directly effecting the workforce. But yeah I didn't go there like current twee...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

RBD = really bad day

Back in March were some really bad days. Market circuit breakers were going off and halting trading. I pulled from my checking account and invested extra and just tightened my belt for that month.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Linkin06 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:23 am
Anyone buying this dip?
This is not a RBD. I'm not doing anything special.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

if markets are forward looking, then why do past GDP numbers cause todays down turn? There's a combo of bad news and no guidance on what's happening with stimulus. If it was just GDP I doubt we would have dropped as that was expected and expected to be slightly more then what's currently reported. ...
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think the big activity will be after the close today with FAAA announcements today.
by jason2459
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2696948

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Another week of worse then expected jobless claims and worse ever plunge on 2nd quarter GDP announcements of falling near 33% but the expected was around 34%

And still no stimulus package signed. I'm seeing red today.
by jason2459
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1184
Views: 121014

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Anyone having second thoughts due to the continued euphoria we are seeing in US Tech stocks? Not really, since I'm unfortunately (at the moment, at least) under-exposed to US Tech stocks. Can you elaborate? I'm curious too as the total stock or sp500 is fairly heavy on the tech side due to market c...
by jason2459
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface
Replies: 69
Views: 6056

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface

I'm not a fan of their website. I actually do like their app and easy to buy ETFs or mutual funds through it. I still like E-Trade best for ease of use web interface and researching.
by jason2459
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1184
Views: 121014

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

000 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:23 pm
Anyone having second thoughts due to the continued euphoria we are seeing in US Tech stocks?
Nope. Stay the course. Will the market crash? Some day. Will it recover? Most likely. Do I actually know anything? Nope. Does anyone? Nope.
by jason2459
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?
Replies: 135
Views: 12968

Re: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?

tooluser wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:43 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:47 am
El Greco wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:56 pm
Here's my game plan:
Love that plan :D .
Indeed! It's right up there with "" and .
(), [], and {} are good variations on the same theme, but are kind of overthinking it, I think.
I'm sorry, with all due respect, I'm going to tilt towards ...
by jason2459
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) Index for Kid
Replies: 32
Views: 1647

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) Index for Kid

Another vote for rIRA for it's tax advantages and flexibility in being able to withdraw the contributions making it a good initial emergency fund and retirement fund in one for someone starting out and limited funds. Majority of savings each month to that. Then I would also look at opening a high yi...