Search found 6475 matches

by Fallible
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 50
Views: 4230

Re: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Here's all that Jack is saying: “Most investors would be wise to re-examine their portfolios to make sure that they are balanced with an appropriate bond position to provide some stability in volatile markets.” Here's how I read it: If we go by the general definition of market timing, which involves...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Best Behavioral Finance Books
Replies: 6
Views: 575

Re: Larry Swedroe: Best Behavioral Finance Books

Random Walker wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:47 am
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... ance-books

Larry’s list of his favorite behavioral finance books.
Just curious, but why only a summary of Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow?
by Fallible
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What should a new investor being reading?
Replies: 29
Views: 1991

Re: What should a new investor being reading?

\ The problem with books is that they quickly go out of date. Nevertheless, there are many excellent books on investing. Just be aware that the older books can contain outdated information. I largely disagree. Bogle’s Cost Matters Hypothesis, Gibson’s Rewards of Multi Asset Class Investing, Ellis’ W...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 59
Views: 7108

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

In the late 1990's reading Money magazine and Kipplingers lead me to purchase the hottest funds--Janus Funds. Anyone remember the Janus Mercury and Olympus funds? They faded into extinction after the Tech Wreck. That experience cured me of chasing hot funds recommended in print form or otherwise. :...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 59
Views: 7108

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

... a book by Jason Zweig, The Little Book of Safe Money , in which he lists "words and phrases that shysters are fond of and that the financially legitimate people are very unlikely to use" and they include: "Can't lose," "Free money," "I'm on your side," "Limited-time offer," "I would never lie t...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 59
Views: 7108

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

Thanks for posting these best worst places, Taylor. They (the first three in particular) reminded me of a book by Jason Zweig, The Little Book of Safe Money , in which he lists "words and phrases that shysters are fond of and that the financially legitimate people are very unlikely to use" and they...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 59
Views: 7108

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

Thanks for posting these best worst places, Taylor. They (the first three in particular) reminded me of a book by Jason Zweig, The Little Book of Safe Money , in which he lists "words and phrases that shysters are fond of and that the financially legitimate people are very unlikely to use" and they ...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 3095

Re: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?

We are in the fortunate situation that we have a fairly low need to take risk given the size of our portfolio (3m, in our late 40s). ... For others in similar circumstances, do you have a reduced allocation to stocks as well? Reading the posts here I always get the impression that most people have ...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation, timing, volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 686

Re: Allocation, timing, volatility

Hi all, I'm a noob here. I need to re-allocate our portfolio to increase our bond holdings. I was all set to do it and then, well, this last month happened. Now I'm frozen, unsure of how to work this. Just do it? Wait for a "good day"? I know, time in the market etc. Curious to read your thoughts J...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young and Dumb--wanting to start investing
Replies: 14
Views: 1361

Re: Young and Dumb--wanting to start investing

I'm 23 years old and am looking to start investing with a goal to retire by 65. After reading The Bogleheads Guide it seems that index investing in a Roth IRA would be best for my knowledge level at this time. I thought I would start by investing the IRS max of $6k this year. However, even after re...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard advisor suggesting 90/10
Replies: 41
Views: 3071

Re: Vanguard advisor suggesting 90/10

Just out of curiosity, have you discussed your concerns with Vanguard PAS? What was the response? Did you ask them about possibly leaning a little more conservative? ... To these important questions, I'll add two more regarding the basis on which the VG advisor made his recommendations: -Did he ask...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met
Replies: 14
Views: 3471

Re: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met

And the third condition is immediate feedback. Kahneman said that “you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong.” I think this one in particular separates the gut from the accurate snap judgement. This may be true, although the second requirement - lots of practice -...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best way to invest is through benign neglect
Replies: 16
Views: 2065

Re: The best way to invest is through benign neglect

Every day I find more value in these forums. I keep seeing people's signature blocks say things about " I don't know anything." So what is the underlying story to that -- just that buying index funds and pretty much keeping your hands off of them beats "traders" and actively managed funds? https://...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: LadyGeek -- the next 10K poster!
Replies: 39
Views: 5360

Re: LadyGeek -- the next 10K poster!

Hi: We recently interviewed LadyGeek about her numerous roles with bogleheads.org and affilitate sites on our affiliate Financial Page blog. In the interview she discusses how she came to the site, and explains her roles as administrator of sites and moderator. Here is the link: Interview with Lady...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met
Replies: 14
Views: 3471

Re: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met

Kahneman extensively develops intuition, in particular "expert intuition," in his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow . As he shows, intuition is often misunderstood and what some think is intuition is more emotion and gut feeling. A good example (pg. 12) is of a chief investment officer of a financial f...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met
Replies: 14
Views: 3471

Re: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met

Kahneman extensively develops intuition, in particular "expert intuition," in his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow . As he shows, intuition is often misunderstood and what some think is intuition is more emotion and gut feeling. A good example (pg. 12) is of a chief investment officer of a financial fi...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1789

Re: DUH - Mistake on My Part

... So here's my question. A s I am pretty risk tolerant, for example I didn’t make any changes in the 2008 down turn and do staying the course, am I negatively impacting the success probability of my portfolio by going beyond 60% to 75% stocks? ... I've got 8 years to go to retirement so a while t...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"
Replies: 60
Views: 7162

Re: "The Steak Dinner Annuity Pitch"

If you go to the free dinner seminar, and you buy the annuity, the living trust, the timeshare, or the bridge, you paid for the free dinners for everyone else in the room. Which explains the last line in the NYT article: "If these meals didn’t catch lots of people, salespeople wouldn’t keep paying ...
by Fallible
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did YOU choose your career?
Replies: 149
Views: 8678

Re: How did YOU choose your career?

I'm a big believer in taking time off between HS and college, or after one year of college just to get a feel for what it is like. Back at college in my 30s I saw so many students who treated higher ed like an extension of high school. A "gap decade" may not be as feasible nowadays with so much com...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Psychological “justifiers” of active management
Replies: 9
Views: 797

Re: Psychological “justifiers” of active management

... If I were to try to tie this back to investing theory (discussion went on over beers), with the union = EJ, NW, the non-union = Vanguard, and management = individual investors, there’s an interesting link in that active managers are often firm believers in active management. ... It is interesti...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3362

Re: Am I too risk averse?

Hi Bogleheads, I’m in my late forties, I have about $3.5M in taxable and my current asset allocation looks like this: 32% Treasury bills 28% Stocks 18% CDs 7% Checking & Savings 5% Money market 5% Municipal bonds 5% TIPS On one hand, I realize it’s a very conservative portfolio, and I definitely do...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 199
Views: 13884

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

Have been a practicing general internist for 40 years, reviewing other doctors' work in various capacities since 1981. Lessons learned; Where a doctor starts in terms of his/her training is very important early in the career but less so with the passage of time. Ten to fifteen years out from comple...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 199
Views: 13884

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

Have been a practicing general internist for 40 years, reviewing other doctors' work in various capacities since 1981. Lessons learned; Where a doctor starts in terms of his/her training is very important early in the career but less so with the passage of time. Ten to fifteen years out from comple...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 199
Views: 13884

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

Have been a practicing general internist for 40 years, reviewing other doctors' work in various capacities since 1981. Lessons learned; Where a doctor starts in terms of his/her training is very important early in the career but less so with the passage of time. Ten to fifteen years out from comple...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop and settle at one place?
Replies: 27
Views: 3076

Re: When to stop and settle at one place?

Hi everyone, At what point in life one should stop moving for better opportunities which involves relocation etc? I am constantly trying to improve my skills and always looking for better jobs. However, it disrupts all house related and other future plannings. ... It's different for everyone, of co...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Incompetent home inspector - what to do?
Replies: 52
Views: 5175

Re: Incompetent home inspector - what to do?

We put our home on the market last month and received an good offer fairly quickly. The buyer and family were very enthusiastic about our home...just what they they were looking for. They ordered various inspections, septic, termite, etc, and all was well. Then in came the home inspector. The next ...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beware the commission salesperson
Replies: 19
Views: 1936

Re: Beware the commission salesperson

I do not believe I have ever defended commissioned sales people before but I will give a different perspective on this post. It is true that many commissioned sales people are unscrupulous and are only concerned about their commission. However, there are some who want to provide a good product or s...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it 'Market Timing' (i.e., Bad) to Have an Investment Plan Where You Increase Stock Allocation if Market Declines?
Replies: 25
Views: 2536

Re: Is it 'Market Timing' (i.e., Bad) to Have an Investment Plan Where You Increase Stock Allocation if Market Declines?

... But for some reason I just can’t pull the trigger on a 100% stocks portfolio. I can’t put my finger on it exactly. Then don't. I often say that feelings don't really help you as an investor (meaning, they won't help you improve returns) but they can hurt you. However, this niggling feeling you'...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 2456

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules

Thanks, Larry, and good to see No. 4: 4. Do Not Take More Risk Than You Have The Ability, Willingness Or Need To Take Most battles are won in the preparation stage, not on the battlefield. ... On the forum during market downturns or even just the usual volatility, i.e., the “battlefield,” we often s...
by Fallible
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 7212

Re: Are you all staying the course?

Esq123 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:53 pm
How are you all handling the recent market volatility? Everyone staying the course? I am content for now that I am not 100% equities.
What do you mean you are content "for now"? Could something happen that would change it?
by Fallible
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!
Replies: 129
Views: 19742

Re: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!

... With all the swings up and down recently I am finding that it's too much volatility for me. ... As I read your posts on previous threads, this well-known quote came to mind: “If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.” The "place" is the stock market and here's an ar...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Perfect Portfolio for You
Replies: 27
Views: 4454

Re: The Perfect Portfolio for You

Exactly Rick ! Golf is no different ..... there are a few fundamentals and once those are solidly in place the "swing" is personal to each golfer. To search for the abstract "perfect swing" and attempt to copy it and ignore your personal swing is unproductive. With acknowledgment to Taylor and vari...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Perfect Portfolio for You
Replies: 27
Views: 4454

Re: The Perfect Portfolio for You

Let's step back for a minute and look at the three elements of successful Boglehead investing: 1. Philosophy 2. Strategy 3. Discipline Philosophy: We all have the same beliefs - fees matter, don't try to time market, etc. The list is on the Bogleheads Wiki Strategy: This is personal. Unique to you....
by Fallible
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3452
Views: 1023038

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Two books I highly recommend: _ The Confidence Game , by Maria Konnikova. One of the best I’ve read on the subject. Explains stages of the con (the put-up, the play, the rope, the tale, etc.) and why so many of us make it easy for cons: “the basic, irresistible, universal human need to believe in so...
by Fallible
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things You See During Every Market Correction
Replies: 5
Views: 1508

Re: Things You See During Every Market Correction

This looks a lot like what we see on the forum come market-correction time. Liked this description of investor behavior in bull and bear markets: investors begin paying more attention to the markets. Have you ever gotten lost in your own thoughts in the car while driving somewhere and once you got t...
by Fallible
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3890
Views: 1087207

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Charade , on Amazon Prime. This is a classic thriller/romance starring Cary Grant and Audrey Hepburn, with Walter Matthau and James Coburn as the villains. This is an excellent movie. Also liked the film, a mixture of suspense, thriller, witty romantic comedy, mystery, and spoof of it all, plus gre...
by Fallible
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10727

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

... yes you are right; he did get it right about China, but like it's been noted above, he also made some wrong ones. I guess his results should improve as the work progresses; he got it wrong on the US nearly 20 yrs ago so he should have improved his research method by now. But yes it's probably a...
by Fallible
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ophthalmologist - Cornea Specialty... Best type of practice??
Replies: 8
Views: 1049

Re: Ophthalmologist - Cornea Specialty... Best type of practice??

Ophthalmologist here. I'm about 10 years out of training. Choose the sub-specialty you enjoy the most, if you even decide to do a fellowship at all. I'm a comprehensive ophthalmologist and knew from day one of residency that I would be done after my 3 years. The reasons for my choice: 1) I enjoyed ...
by Fallible
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10727

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Assuming Steve321 is sincere in his questions (I am beginning to have doubts), I would like to ask him: What are your goals and why are you spending so much time and effort trying to find someone who can tell you how to "beat the markets?" Is the historical market return not good enough to make it ...
by Fallible
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my Retiree Investment Policy Statement, if you will
Replies: 6
Views: 995

Re: Critique my Retiree Investment Policy Statement, if you will

Overall, I think it is very well thought out, although a key test of any IPS is how well it helps when the market crashes. As for the rebalancing, the general advice I'm aware of is usually once a year.
by Fallible
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3209

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Have my views on this, interested in others. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1bpqyp4684v06/The-Wall-Street-Math-Hustle?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Essential%20II%2011618&utm_content=The%20Essential%20II%2011618%20Version%20A%20CID_0014aa02fb81e405f7485d796dbb7737&utm_source=C...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Multiple newspaper and magazine subscriptions - how much do you pay to stay informed?
Replies: 51
Views: 2413

Re: Multiple newspaper and magazine subscriptions - how much do you pay to stay informed?

bottlecap wrote:
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:03 pm
...
Even "credible" journalists are nothing but journalists. They typically myopic, rely on tired sources and, in any event, are themselves not big thinkers. A lot of times, they aren't even that great at regurgitation.

JT
All journalists are like this?
by Fallible
Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Multiple newspaper and magazine subscriptions - how much do you pay to stay informed?
Replies: 51
Views: 2413

Re: Multiple newspaper and magazine subscriptions - how much do you pay to stay informed?

I subscribe to the NYT and our local daily newspaper online and to a local online-only publication that started up a few years ago. Other national publications such as the Washington Post, WSJ, LA Times, Chicago Trib, various magazines, etc., I read at the library. I like getting as many sides to a ...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Brokerage Firm Caught Overcharging
Replies: 3
Views: 1486

Re: Another Brokerage Firm Caught Overcharging

... Financial advisers at brokerage firms are NOT fiduciaries. They work for payouts. The do not work in your best interest. Let the buyer beware! Rick Ferri "Buyer beware" is always sound advice, but it sure helps to know of what the buyer should beware, and the information you've shared here prov...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weight Training After 70
Replies: 33
Views: 2408

Re: Weight Training After 70

As a doctor, I would not consult a doctor about this question. We have absolutely no formal training in exercise physiology or theory and 85% of us do not know where the nearest gym is. The idea that a medical doctor is qualified to write out a physical training regimen is silly. Go see them to man...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2597

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

In a recent post, someone commented that a particular website was helpful for both BEGINNER AND ADVANCED INVESTORS. What is an "advanced investor"? Any answer depends on what the person who posted it meant, and whether it means anything beyond that. Can you post a link to the thread in which the co...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?
Replies: 7
Views: 722

Re: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?

https://www.morningstar.com/videos/888358/building-a-portfolio-for-a-lowreturn-world.html The following is from an interview with Fran Kinniry of Vanguard; "I think sometimes market forecasting gets a negative connotation, but there's really only a couple of ways you can do this. You can use histor...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.
Replies: 16
Views: 2105

Re: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.

As long as the conflicts of interest are disclosed, they are not an issue with regulators. But I wonder how many people actually read the fine print. And not just read the fine print, but understand it, and if they don't understand it, ask questions (if they can find the right person to ask and if ...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.
Replies: 16
Views: 2105

Re: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.

I was reading about a service provided by TD Ameritrade and it reminded me that brokers do not give unbiased advice. They sell. Discount brokerage firms such as Schwab and TD Ameritrade will refer you to an independent investment adviser if you request one. This may sound like an unbiased referral,...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jonathan Clements: For Nervous Investors
Replies: 2
Views: 1262

Jonathan Clements: For Nervous Investors

For those investors nervous about the recent market drop, here's Jonathan Clements to provide "three quick calculations that might spur you to action—or help ease your mind:" 1. How much cash do you need from your portfolio over the next five years? 2. What’s the value below which you never want you...