Search found 6524 matches

by Fallible
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: xkcd Webcomic Weighs in on Technical Analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 1379

Re: xkcd Webcomic Weighs in on Technical Analysis

And the alternate text (hover over the image to see it) is: "I [suspect] that we are throwing more and more of our resources, including the cream of our youth, into financial activities remote from the production of goods and services, into activities that generate high private rewards disproportio...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way
Replies: 62
Views: 7176

Re: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way

The problem with “cult” is that even though it has many definitions, not all agreed to and not all bad, the connotation is usually negative, implying a kind of wholly emotional, slavish devotion or worshiping - slavish defined (New Oxford American Dictionary) as subservient, fawning, sycophantic, to...
by Fallible
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Investment Approach
Replies: 46
Views: 1579

Re: Differences in Investment Approach

It's important to note that many disagreements in investment approach are more about misunderstandings of investment terms, such as rebalancing, market timing, dollar-cost averaging, etc. Here's a long thread about those "misconceptions" in which there are even disagreements about the misconceptions...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 44
Views: 5008

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:38 pm
Fallible wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:34 pm
While reading your tribute Rick, I was nodding in agreement all the way until I got to your line: “Rest in peace, Jack. You’ve done enough.” And I thought, yes, he has done enough, but would he ever have agreed to that?
Oh, hell no!

Rick Ferri
:thumbsup :)
by Fallible
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 44
Views: 5008

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

It’s so good to see this tribute, especially the reference to Jack’s “tireless campaign” to “bring integrity to the financial system.” It reminded me of his appearance on a PBS show in 2007 about reports of private equity firms and hidden ownership of nursing homes. Interviewed by Bill Moyers, Jack ...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 44764

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

We've lost a man for all seasons, but hopefully not what we've learned from him. My condolences to his family and countless friends. And my endless gratitude for learning what is enough.
by Fallible
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4738

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

We're now in the 115th month without a recession. The record set in the 90's was 120 months. December was the worst month for equities since the Great Depression. Sounds like the Fed is worried enough to pause interest rate hikes. I tell people they shouldn't worry about timing but it's hard not to...
by Fallible
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Main Meeting 1/26/19
Replies: 3
Views: 444

Minnesota BH Main Meeting 1/26/19

MN BH Main Meeting on Saturday, January 26, 2019 from 9:30-11:30 am {with optional Social Time 11:30 am-12:00 pm} at the Ridgedale Library, 12601 Ridgedale Drive, Minnetonka, MN, Rohlf main meeting room. https://goo.gl/maps/RfjeU4RitMm AGENDA 9:30 Introduction - Welcome, opening remarks, splinter g...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet
Replies: 217
Views: 9764

Re: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet

follow the bogleheads diet: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 exercise early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little pounds 4 Diversify your diet 5 Never try to time the grocery market 6 Use low carb foods when possible 7 Keep stress low 8 Minimize calories 9 cook with simplicity 10 Stay the course...
by Fallible
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed
Replies: 21
Views: 2762

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Loser’s Game Reaffirmed

This does indeed reaffirm Charles Ellis's classic book, Winning The Loser's Game, (7th Ed.).
by Fallible
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4224

Re: What do you think of this advice?

I agree that 3 is the one that's hardest to dismiss. 'Do nothing in a crash' isn't the same as 'rebalance your portfolio to the same % in stocks as prior to the crash'. Rebalancing to an arbitrary % means you're willing to take much more risk at some times than other times. That's actually a really...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4224

Re: What do you think of this advice?

If rebalancing is simply maintaining an original allocation (which it is), then how is that market timing, which is predicting what the market will do and then investing based on the prediction? By that definition it isn't, no. But it is reacting to market changes, buying more stock because it dipp...
by Fallible
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4224

Re: What do you think of this advice?

I agree that 3 is the one that's hardest to dismiss. 'Do nothing in a crash' isn't the same as 'rebalance your portfolio to the same % in stocks as prior to the crash'. Rebalancing to an arbitrary % means you're willing to take much more risk at some times than other times. That's actually a really...
by Fallible
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Drop Stocks Altogether: Age Dependent Decision?
Replies: 23
Views: 1590

Re: Drop Stocks Altogether: Age Dependent Decision?

... I'm seriously considering reducing my stock allocation to zero. I know this is a very personal decision involving many factors (size of portfolio, tolerance for risk, family medical history etc. etc.). The possibility of suffering a big loss in stocks at this point in life seems to be overwhelm...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay the Course! But...?
Replies: 11
Views: 1805

Re: Stay the Course! But...?

We've all heard the phrase "Stay the Course!", popularized by Jack Bogle. I've done it for decades, and it's paid off handsomely. But how do you know if the course you're staying on is the right course? If the course you've selected is wrong, despite your best efforts, how do you recognize that it ...
by Fallible
Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1384

Re: The Intelligent Investor

The revision of Graham's classic that I would recommend now for investors is one edited with commentary by author and WSJ columnist Jason Zweig (an earlier version that I tried to read was mostly over my little-investor head). In an article last year, Zweig explains how the revision was planned and ...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

Just read a new blog by author Larry Swedroe in which he tells (toward the end) investors that "feeling punched" by the current market is "normal." He then advises: However, it may mean that you were overconfident in estimating your ability or willingness to take risk. If that’s the case, a review o...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

2 things I thought reading the article. 1) From 70/30 to 60/40 is not a drastic change in allocation. While nobody, including Jack Bogle, knows the future, it's easy to look at the state of life, the universe, and everything, and come to the conclusion that derisking a bit is not a bad idea. 2) The...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Help An Old Lady
Replies: 16
Views: 1716

Re: Help Me Help An Old Lady

Suggest you buy a new or used copy of Jane Bryant Quinn"s book, How to Make your Money Last, for both of you to read and keep as a reference. Agree and emphasize that both should read this book, even get your own copies for independent thinking. A concern I have is that we don't have enough informa...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3526
Views: 1034608

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Good Earth, Pearl S. Buck The book starts with Wang Lung, a poor farmer, on his wedding day, sometime in the late 19th century somewhere in rural China, and follows him through his life. Well told, interesting story. Writing that feels like it was written by someone for whom English wasn’t her ...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: When did Jack become an advocate of timing the market?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-on-the-stock-market-51545950443 Articles like this have me scratching my head. Just seems strange that he would change his tune this late in life. There really is no change in tune, although the article seems to be trying hard to imply on...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

Well he said "play it safe" https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-on-the-stock-market-51545950443?mod=hp_BRIEFLIST_1&mod=article_inline "Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe" In case you’re thinking that it’s safe to dive back into the stock market, thin...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6823

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

Let’s say, hypothetically speaking of course, that there is a good chance stocks will fall in the next few weeks/months. Assuming this information to be true, what merits does staying the course have? Wouldn’t it be more sensible to sell all of my funds now (assuming a profit, of course), and rebuy...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What common everyday inconvenience have you intentionally suffered for frugality?
Replies: 152
Views: 9318

Re: What common everyday inconvenience have you intentionally suffered for frugality?

Reviewing various dictionary definitions of frugality (mainly to be careful and prudent in spending), I don't think of it as "suffering."
by Fallible
Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6823

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

Let’s say, hypothetically speaking of course, that there is a good chance stocks will fall in the next few weeks/months. Assuming this information to be true, what merits does staying the course have? Wouldn’t it be more sensible to sell all of my funds now (assuming a profit, of course), and rebuy...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Think About the Future: How Do You Know When Your Risk Tolerance Changes?
Replies: 37
Views: 2399

Re: Help Me Think About the Future: How Do You Know When Your Risk Tolerance Changes?

My AA history is probably fairly common. I was 100% equities until the dot-com bust in 2001. I was 46 at the time. That event made me realize that 100% was too high for me, so I reduced my equities to 70%. Note that I waited a few years before selling equities so I didn't lock in all my losses but ...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: This is why you should not time the market
Replies: 38
Views: 5931

Re: This is why you should not time the market

The market is up 5% today. Weren’t headed to the abyss? Didn’t we have the biggest christmas eve sell off in history? A lot of people were talking about going cash, predicting more nose dives. And then today happened. Washington post calls it the biggest Dow point gain in history. ... Having been i...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fall of 2018: third fastest decline on record
Replies: 20
Views: 1578

Re: Fall of 2018: third fastest decline on record

Interesting that Warren Buffett recently noted the Dow and S&P are "on pace for their worst December since the Great Depression in 1931." Considering it was Warren Buffett saying this (and saying more without saying it), I wondered how much more he knew. Now I think we're starting to find out. ... J...
by Fallible
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Think About the Future: How Do You Know When Your Risk Tolerance Changes?
Replies: 37
Views: 2399

Re: Help Me Think About the Future: How Do You Know When Your Risk Tolerance Changes?

CheChe wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:14 pm
...
What life events, birthdays, financial milestones, etc. prompted you to change your asset allocation?
...
Age. I generally go by "age in bonds."
by Fallible
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often To Expect -10% and -20% Stock Drops
Replies: 19
Views: 2714

Re: How Often To Expect -10% and -20% Stock Drops

The current market slide, after an unprecedented 10 year bull run got me to wondering: Statistically how often have we seen the S&P500 drop 10%? 20? In other words, for a 60 year old (I'm approaching 59) person, with a remaining 20-30 year life expectancy, how many of these draw downs are to be exp...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How market timing will go wrong?
Replies: 62
Views: 3895

Re: How market timing will go wrong?

Hi, I want to adhere to the BH philosophy of staying the course and not trying to time the market. I currently maintain a Three-Fund Portfolio in 401k. But for my understanding and education, I'd like to ask something. What will go wrong with, or what are the flaws with, or why the following is a b...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 22, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How market timing will go wrong?
Replies: 62
Views: 3895

Re: How market timing will go wrong?

Hi, I want to adhere to the BH philosophy of staying the course and not trying to time the market. I currently maintain a Three-Fund Portfolio in 401k. But for my understanding and education, I'd like to ask something. What will go wrong with, or what are the flaws with, or why the following is a b...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book? [for a new investor]
Replies: 21
Views: 1665

Re: Which book? [for a new investor]

I've finished reading The Little Book of Common Sense Investing(10th anniversary) it was a great book and very easy to read as a new investor. Which book would you recommend following that up with? I have seen a few other books by Bogle but wasn't sure how well they aged/held up over time. Same goe...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?
Replies: 43
Views: 5437

Re: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?

Fallible - It seems to me also that the article is addressing the subject of "regret minimization" as a guiding principle for investing. According to this idea, the objective is more specific than determining one's "risk tolerance" or need, ability, and willingness to accept risk of financial loss....
by Fallible
Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9765

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

Thinking long-term and having a favorable time horizon kept me in the stock market for 31 years, starting with the crash of '87. I made mistakes here and there (e.g., too scared to rebalance in '08), but having that time was most important.
by Fallible
Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?
Replies: 43
Views: 5437

Re: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?

Maybe it's OK for some to stray from the faith. We just won't talk about it here. Kahneman’s best work was documenting loss aversion—the idea that people hate losing more than they enjoy winning. I asked him: Is it rational? “Well, that’s a complicated issue,” he said. “If it’s rational to live wit...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Market - Mindset Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 6170

Re: Bear Market - Mindset Expectations

... I am interested in how others emotionally stay the course during unfriendly times. The psychology of investing is fascinating. The most educated folks, sell near the bottom, against their better judgment. Anxiety, fear, anger, depression are all common emotions felt during the bottoms of a Bear...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?
Replies: 43
Views: 5437

Re: "Stay the course" is rational -- but is it reasonable?

Maybe it's OK for some to stray from the faith. We just won't talk about it here. Kahneman’s best work was documenting loss aversion—the idea that people hate losing more than they enjoy winning. I asked him: Is it rational? “Well, that’s a complicated issue,” he said. “If it’s rational to live wit...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?
Replies: 16
Views: 2149

Re: Don't put in stocks what you can't afford to lose? Really?

New poster here. I've heard the above quote from several well respected analysts on TV, radio, blogs, and forums. But is this really a case of faulty semantics? Stocks are part of my long term retirement plan and I can't afford to "lose" that money. What I CAN afford is to leave that money alone fo...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Finance for normal people
Replies: 6
Views: 1155

Re: Behavioral Finance for normal people

thanks for posting looks interesting What normal investors really want: utilitarian, expressive, and emotional benefits Ask investors what benefits they want from their investments and they are likely to say: high returns with low risk. What more is there to want? In truth, we want more benefits fr...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding "risk tolerance"
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Understanding "risk tolerance"

... I believe there's also a wealth of research showing that psychological test subjects, Americans in particular, are way out of the cultural and behavioural norms for the planet? Some of what I have seen would suggest that Americans in particular, and Anglo-Saxons in general, are sociopaths by th...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did you decide to change your asset allocation?
Replies: 45
Views: 1985

Re: Why did you decide to change your asset allocation?

I am curious what others have done and why when it come to changing your asset allocations (in particular, scaling back equity investments and how and why you did it). ... The reason I ask is because I am considering changing my asset allocation and am currently reflecting on it a lot and wondering...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Warren Buffett suggests you read this 19th century poem when the market is tanking"
Replies: 28
Views: 3945

Re: "Warren Buffett suggests you read this 19th century poem when the market is tanking"

The poem's great, but I'd feel better if Buffett hadn't said the Dow and S&P are "on pace for their worst December since the Great Depression in 1931." Yikes. More poems please!
by Fallible
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bill Bernstein Books
Replies: 45
Views: 5630

Re: Dr. Bill Bernstein Books

Hi all, I never read any of Dr. Bernstein's books, but saw a few videos on You Tube and I would like to learn more about how he thinks. I often see him quoted about once you win the game stop playing. What book would you suggest I start with. The Four Pillars Of Investing and then The Investor's Ma...
by Fallible
Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding "risk tolerance"
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Understanding "risk tolerance"

Larry Swedroe’s often-quoted articles (on the forum and in the wiki) on need, willingness (risk tolerance), and ability to take risk show how and where risk tolerance fits into investing decisions: The ability to take risk An investor’s ability to take risk is determined by four factors: (1) investm...
by Fallible
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding "risk tolerance"
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Understanding "risk tolerance"

One of the things Bogleheads tend to emphasize is that one's personal "risk tolerance" is the single most important factor that should go into investing decisions. This subjective factor is overwhelmingly more important than most of the objective ones that we discuss in much more detail. Unfortunat...
by Fallible
Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strange [job] interview- what do you think?
Replies: 35
Views: 3616

Re: Strange [job] interview- what do you think?

These seem mostly good signs that you are still a strong candidate, but there's no way to know for certain whether you'll be hired. Even if you were hired, it would still be hard to know for certain all the reasons as there are always so many variables and personalities involved. I like that he enco...
by Fallible
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Imminent retirees & sequence fear
Replies: 69
Views: 4496

Re: Imminent retirees & sequence fear

OP, keep it Boglehead simple: :happy If and when you and your wife get back into the market, try 25% equities and hope that allocation can best match your tolerances for risk. But first , take time to fully understand : -your ability, willingness, and need to take risk (links below); -why you got ou...
by Fallible
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6093

Re: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

I read this as, Jack Bogle, the old sailor, sees rough seas ahead. He cautions: Make sure your boat is ready! He often takes the pulse of the economy, the interest rate environment, corporate earnings, etc. His advice is timeless, though. Be prepared with an appropriate allocation that includes bon...
by Fallible
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6093

Re: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Here's all that Jack is saying: “Most investors would be wise to re-examine their portfolios to make sure that they are balanced with an appropriate bond position to provide some stability in volatile markets.” Here's how I read it: If we go by the general definition of market timing, which involves...