Search found 6269 matches

by Fallible
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I "market timing"?
Replies: 37
Views: 1793

Re: Am I "market timing"?

You could be wrong? Doesn't sound like you are 100% convinced then. I guess we have different definitions of 100% convinced. :) The problem with market timing - even people who think they are certain about something have a tendency to waiver. ;) LOL, yes indeed! This board wouldn’t exist otherwise,...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I "market timing"?
Replies: 37
Views: 1793

Re: Am I "market timing"?

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:45 pm
... I'm 100% convinced that we'll see a 15-30 percent drop in the next 18 months.
...

I think the real question here is on what basis are you 100% convinced?
by Fallible
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our interview with Taylor Larimore
Replies: 13
Views: 2520

Re: Our interview with Taylor Larimore

Thanks, Taylor and Barry, for an enjoyable interview. I look forward to reading the three-fund book, the latest in a great series of Bogleheads books. :thumbsup
by Fallible
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 128
Views: 8035

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

The principle I have the biggest problem with is the "never bear too much or too little risk". That is a fortune cookie answer and is not really specific enough to be actionable. What is "too much" or "too little"? It is WAY too vague to be usable. How about a general rule of thumb like the one I u...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 128
Views: 8035

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I'm a pretty strict boglehead. The one guide I don't do is a written out directive Investment Plan Statement. I have some guiding heuristics I stick to religiously (segregating buckets according to desired risk and timeline, rebalancing) but I personally have never felt the need to write out anythi...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3060
Views: 943834

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou, a WSJ investigative reporter who previously wrote a series of articles about the health care startup, Theranos, and its young founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes. It’s about Holmes and the Valley, but also about t...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Life in retirement - what did you do today?
Replies: 175
Views: 14089

Re: Life in retirement - what did you do today?

This morning I mostly pouted over the rain (hadn't been forecasted) that ended plans to bike. Went to the library to pick up a book, read some of it there, got bored and returned it. Chatted with a friend there and we agreed to meet for lunch on Thursday. Back home, still raining, logged on to this ...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5347

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Another 5 minutes from the interview. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RC__VrsfdpM at 1:42 he says 'there will be opportunities - we have seen them in the last 25 yrs - to get out and get back in'. I am not sure whether he is advocating market timing, perhaps based on extreme valuations (as he elsewhe...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When I thought I was smarter than the market
Replies: 22
Views: 3670

Re: When I thought I was smarter than the market

ragnathor, thanks for sharing your experiences and the lessons you've learned from them. We all need to see this as we all make mistakes. In fact, this reminded me of two books I've read about investing mistakes and what is called "Enbrace the Mistake." The term was used by WSJ columnist Jason Zweig...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 66
Views: 8813

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

I loved this one: There are over 2,000 books picking apart how Warren Buffett built his fortune. But none are called “This Guy Has Been Investing Consistently for Three-Quarters of a Century.” And that's apparently how Grace Groner built her fortune, too. But there are not 2,000 books about that. S...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3060
Views: 943834

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou, a WSJ investigative reporter who previously wrote a series of articles about the health care startup, Theranos, and its young founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes. It’s about Holmes and the Valley, but also about th...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 66
Views: 8813

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

That hierarchy actually is flawed when it comes to Boglehead principles. I think many people reading this forum conflate Asset Allocation and Security Selection, so there doesn't need to be two trapezoids describing them. After all, security selection is practically trivial: Pick the index fund tha...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 66
Views: 8813

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

This is an excellent blog by Morgan Housel on how investing is not the study of finance, but the study of how people behave with money. "And behavior," he writes, "is hard to teach, even to really smart people." His points, including a graphic on the "Hierarchy of Investor Needs,'" are referenced in...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 2292

Re: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?

columbia wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:22 pm
I saw FOMO referenced in another thread and - based on my own choices and the choices of others - believe that it’s a real phenomenon. ...
Here's the link to the Stanford FOMO study in the thread you're referring to:

https://edu.google.com/intl/en_ca/lates ... rsity-gcp/
by Fallible
Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

"Good investing," he writes, "isn't necessarily about earning the highest returns, because the highest returns tend to be one-off hits that kill your confidence when they end. It's about earning pretty good returns that you can stick with for a long period of time. That's when the compounding runs ...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

... FOMO is real, so is the risk of sticking your head out and being truly 'contrarian' to the crowd. Animals that stick out from the herd are more likely to get hen-pecked or even slaughtered by predators, on rare occasion the difference turns out to be a positive adaptation that succeeds in natur...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

FOMO (fear of missing out) is a major driver of complexity. I know that I've fought against that demon many times. When you hear enough people calling out the risks or benefits of a particular choice, you start to wonder what if they are right? What would be the consequences? The natural inclinatio...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 03, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Advice You Never Took
Replies: 100
Views: 13220

Re: Best Advice You Never Took

The best advice I got I did take - but not often enough. It came from a grade school teacher: "Think before you speak." Fast-forwarding to now, it's a reason I highly value the "Preview" button on this site.
by Fallible
Sun Jun 03, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

To some extent, ‘simplicity’ and ‘complexity’ are relative. For example, I have a 3-fund core portfolio with SCV and REIT tilts. I consider this “simple” since my tilts will always be weighted according to my IPS. I won’t deviate from that and only rebalance when my pre-defined thresholds are met (...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Learning One’s Risk Tolerance
Replies: 5
Views: 588

Re: Learning One’s Risk Tolerance

... I apologize for the lengthy post, but I wanted the community to have the benefit of my experience because (1) I did not realize how I would respond to facing life’s risks and uncertainties - when it came to asset allocation, I was always so focused on preparing for market crashes it did not occ...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking suggestion on rebalancing and stock/bond ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 945

Re: Seeking suggestion on rebalancing and stock/bond ratio

Hello everyone, thank you so much for your feedback. I really appreciate them! I am in my early 40's and my wife in her late 30's. Both of us have steady jobs. We don't plan on touching our investment for 26 years until we both retire. Our total investment, including both tax-deferred and taxable, ...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking suggestion on rebalancing and stock/bond ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 945

Re: Seeking suggestion on rebalancing and stock/bond ratio

I recently met with a financial advisor whom I found on the Garrett Planning Network. After reviewing my family's IPS (abbreviated below), the advisor suggested that we should have a 40% equity / 60% bond portfolio. The main reason for that is we don't need to take more risk than what is necessary....
by Fallible
Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

... I'm not paying up for DFA because of any super secret sauce but mostly because I can get a balanced portfolio with the tilts handled by them rather than me. Paying for the simplicity . They pretty much were the only place to offer this but that is changing. "Paying for the simplicity" in this c...
by Fallible
Thu May 31, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Great post Rick, and you make some excellent points. If I had any concern, that would be that I hope that it's just coincidence that the simple (Broad US stock market) has so greatly outperformed in the past several years the following "alternatives": commodities, gold specifically, International s...
by Fallible
Wed May 30, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11464

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

... On paper, a more complex strategy should outperform a simple one, but I don't believe it does in real life for most people. ... Thanks for the good post on a key area of investing, Rick. Your reference to "most people" reminds me of the Warren Buffett (and Bogle) quote, "Investing is simple, bu...
by Fallible
Tue May 29, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Analysis of Topics - Has This Ever Been Done?
Replies: 13
Views: 1349

Re: Analysis of Topics - Has This Ever Been Done?

Hello - out of curiosity, has there ever been any analysis done on the types of discussion topics written about here on BH? For example calling out key recurring themes and frequency? Interesting question, but what is the point? What exactly would be analyzed and why? Can you provide more examples ...
by Fallible
Wed May 23, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I hire a financial adviser?
Replies: 13
Views: 1404

Re: Should I hire a financial adviser?

You are right to be preparing now for this large windfall. Two wiki pages can help, one on "Managing a windfall," and the other on "Investment adviser."

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_adviser
by Fallible
Wed May 23, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18
Replies: 16
Views: 2296

Re: Minnesota BH Seasonal Main Meeting 4/28/18

Thank you for the excellent session. Would you please tell the name of the TIAA-CREF Real Account that Chris mentioned? Is it the TIAA Real Estate Account? Real Estate As of 3/31/2018 Portfolio Net Assets = $24.9 Billion Inception Date = 10/02/1995 Symbol = QREARX Estimated Annual Expenses = 0.85% ...
by Fallible
Wed May 23, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Allocation Help
Replies: 8
Views: 419

Re: Investment Allocation Help

One method was subtract your age from 100, so that would be 56% stocks. The other method (I believe is Warren Buffets method) is put 90% in S&P index fund and 10% in short-term governments. ...I want to follow Warren Buffets method although I don't know what is meant by short-term governments. 100 ...
by Fallible
Sun May 20, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good read on why to keep a simple indexed fund portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 2293

Re: Good read on why to keep a simple indexed fund portfolio

Good points throughout explained simply, and they go beyond investing, even to coffee makers. Thanks for the link.
by Fallible
Sun May 20, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story
Replies: 38
Views: 3674

Re: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story

This article, IMO, oozes active-management bias, and some references to Jack come close to snarky, whether intended as such or not. Taylor is right to point out what Jack has said many times, that his main concern about ETFs is that they can encourage excessive trading, the short term over the long...
by Fallible
Sun May 20, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story
Replies: 38
Views: 3674

Re: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story

In any case, the problem is the behavior, not the vehicle in my humble opinion. triceratop: Mr. Bogle feels the same. He has said that ETFs held long-term are perfectly acceptable. Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, that may well be, but it is distinctly not the impression one gets from reading that artic...
by Fallible
Sat May 19, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances
Replies: 83
Views: 7848

Re: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances

That was a statement made by the presenter at the session, Dr. Edward Zamrini Director of the Memory Center at Banner Sun Health Research Institute. He was referring to pre-clinical biomarkers for Alzheimer's which are primarily the presence of amygdaloid plaques and tangles. He stated that the pre...
by Fallible
Sat May 19, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances
Replies: 83
Views: 7848

Re: Alzheimer's Disease, Long Term Care, and your Retirement Finances

There have been some discussions about long term care expenses on the forum, and I've found these to be very valuable. I just attended a session presented at the Banner Alzheimer's Research Institute in Phoenix that shed some additional light and concerns that I thought I'd like to share. ... Here ...
by Fallible
Tue May 15, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility tolerance build up
Replies: 11
Views: 929

Re: Volatility tolerance build up

My investing career started only few years ago, but nonetheless i’ve been able to create a mid six figure nest. I have not experienced more than 15% drawdown in these years, but still.. I was reflecting on my emotions whenever I look at my portfolio, and I realized that just few years ago, a daily ...
by Fallible
Tue May 15, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Helping someone with Cancer
Replies: 21
Views: 1380

Re: Helping someone with Cancer

I've always gone by what the patient's family or close friends advise as they'll know best what is needed and most helpful. Sometimes, if able, the patient may be able to let others know this directly.
by Fallible
Tue May 15, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you fall in love with investing?
Replies: 49
Views: 2913

Re: How did you fall in love with investing?

I'm extremely new to the investment world, but I have to say, I absolutely love it. I've been a mountaineer/climber for the majority of my life, always drawn to risk and reward. I was hoping to hear how others out there found themselves involved in investing, maybe you have a great story or insight...
by Fallible
Sat May 12, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets
Replies: 22
Views: 2359

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets

... Annie Duke ... is constantly gathering information, building in defenses against confirmation bias, and no matter what happens analyzing the results so that she is prepared to make a better decision the next time. ... For me, it is a constant struggle to reenforce rationality and to avoid behav...
by Fallible
Fri May 11, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets
Replies: 22
Views: 2359

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets

I haven't read Duke's book, but the many behavioral pitfalls mentioned here are why this all has to do with investing (see the wiki's "Behavioral Pitfalls" page, the "Bogleheads' Philosophy" emphasizing self-control, and the reading lists, including Larry's good book that he mentioned here). The onl...
by Fallible
Wed May 09, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to handle problem employee
Replies: 84
Views: 5748

Re: How to handle problem employee

You've labeled her as a problem employee and want to get rid of her. Instead, try thinking of her as the employee who will motivate you to figure out how to become a good manager, one who can manage employees who present a bit of a challenge as well as the ones who just do the job without any quest...
by Fallible
Tue May 08, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you know anyone unhappy in a CCRC?
Replies: 41
Views: 4669

Re: Do you know anyone unhappy in a CCRC?

I think my mother wishes she didn't need to be there, but that is not quite the same as regretting moving in. - There are cliques. There just are, even with all the staff does to try to encourage people to welcome newcomers and socialize with many different people. - Everyone there is old. All your...
by Fallible
Mon May 07, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--Fidelity Employees Fired After Alleged Misuse of Reimbursement Programs
Replies: 32
Views: 4565

Re: WSJ--Fidelity Employees Fired After Alleged Misuse of Reimbursement Programs

... Skeptic as I am of official stories, I would be interested to know the extent to which Fidelity's investigation focused on cost centers of its operations, where they would like to trim their workforce, rather than being a review across the entire company. A key passage from the article in my sp...
by Fallible
Mon May 07, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--Fidelity Employees Fired After Alleged Misuse of Reimbursement Programs
Replies: 32
Views: 4565

Re: WSJ--Fidelity Employees Fired After Alleged Misuse of Reimbursement Programs

Agree especially with posters Grt2bOutdoors (“If the employees are behaving in dishonest ways with company money, what happens when they have access to the customers money?”), and Pajamas (“Not only did some employees buy equipment and immediately return it to collect up to the maximum amount of $2,...
by Fallible
Fri May 04, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3060
Views: 943834

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Leonardo da Vinci by Walter Isaacson. Highly recommended, especially if you value what must be close to the ultimate in curiosity, observation, imagination, intuition, creativity, and innovation in one astonishing mind. Also good detail on two of his greatest paintings, The Last Supper and the Mona...
by Fallible
Fri May 04, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me with my Asset Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 735

Re: Please help me with my Asset Allocation

Hi, I’m not much of an investor and could use some help. I’ve been putting money into only growth stock mutual funds for retirement the last few years and it has grown. I've been lucky with the market, but I know I’m not diversified and would appreciate some help to feel confident in the long run. ...
by Fallible
Fri May 04, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting - Can Someone Explain
Replies: 32
Views: 2303

Re: Shorting - Can Someone Explain

Can someone please explain short selling to me? ... Can anyone provide me with an explanation of this that will demystify it for me? Or some recommended reading? ... You have some good explanations posted here. As for reading about shorting at its most lucrative, try two great books, The Big Short ...
by Fallible
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYt: having the retirement home conversation
Replies: 4
Views: 842

Re: NYt: having the retirement home conversation

I looked at the article, including the photographs (which seemed kind of overdone and "glossy") and then I googled the author "Peter Finch". It seems he writes regularly and consistently about retirement home situations. The article struck me as kind of a marketing effort. The article was too one-s...
by Fallible
Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 11105

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

The "growing burdens" on our aging population are detailed by "Washington Post" columnist Robert Samuelson and it's not fun to read: In 2010, the ratio of potential caregivers (people 45 to 64) to those aged 80 and older was 7-to-1; by 2030, it’s projected to be 4-to-1. Alzheimer’s cases are increas...
by Fallible
Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Bill of Rights for Patients
Replies: 3
Views: 462

Re: Financial Bill of Rights for Patients

Great article. Cue the folks who will be vehemently against such a bill of rights, saying how it's the patient's responsibility between him/her and the insurance company, won't disclose costs ahead of time, will send the patient to collections even given the unknown costs (because the patient signe...
by Fallible
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Bill of Rights for Patients
Replies: 3
Views: 462

Financial Bill of Rights for Patients

This "New York Times" Opinion piece is about "Nine Rights Every Patient Should Demand." Some of these topics have been debated on this forum, such as itemized billing in plain English, conflicts of interest, out-of-network billing, and cheaper options. Others, however, were new to me, such as facili...