Search found 6327 matches

by Fallible
Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Cognitive Biases Tricking Your Brain" (The Atlantic, Sept 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 888

Re: "Cognitive Biases Tricking Your Brain" (The Atlantic, Sept 2018)

Thanks for an interesting article on a fascinating topic. Daniel Kahneman and others have said that awareness of our biases is a first and key step in dealing with them. This article shows some of those possible steps and the author seems to feel that after "immersing" himself in the field he has "n...
by Fallible
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4633

Re: How to Underperform the Market

Kahneman has written about “expert intuition” that can require much experience, often many years in one field, to make extremely fast, but correct decisions. So the intuition of System 1 does not always lead to poor decisions. This is true, but I don't think investing is a domain where expert intui...
by Fallible
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4633

Re: How to Underperform the Market

... I think cognitive biases are not the same as falling prey to your emotions. Emotions can lead to faulty thinking, but sometimes your thinking is contaminated by its own faulty logic and emotion has nothing to do with it. ... What are examples of where cognitive (faulty thinking) is not affected...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 23828

Re: Invest in Tesla?

... The best case scenario is a new CEO coming on board soon (Sheryl Sandburg or the like), settling the SEC crap fast, doing a capital raise, and going from there. ... But will Musk allow it? Can he give up some control and work that closely with someone? Can he be forced to? Who will force it and...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better Behavioural Finance Books?
Replies: 17
Views: 1219

Re: Better Behavioural Finance Books?

I specifically recommended Thaler's books earlier in this thread, because he is a "real economist" and his work has a greater emphasis on the behavioral finance. ... Victoria, that's a good point about Thaler being an economist, the link between the psychologists Kahneman and Tversky and the econom...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4633

Re: How to Underperform the Market

... I think cognitive biases are not the same as falling prey to your emotions. Emotions can lead to faulty thinking, but sometimes your thinking is contaminated by its own faulty logic and emotion has nothing to do with it. ... What are examples of where cognitive (faulty thinking) is not affected...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4633

Re: How to Underperform the Market

... I think cognitive biases are not the same as falling prey to your emotions. Emotions can lead to faulty thinking, but sometimes your thinking is contaminated by its own faulty logic and emotion has nothing to do with it. ... What are examples of where cognitive (faulty thinking) is not affected...
by Fallible
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 23828

Re: Invest in Tesla?

usk Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to g...
by Fallible
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better Behavioural Finance Books?
Replies: 17
Views: 1219

Re: Better Behavioural Finance Books?

The wiki lists some of the best in the "Behavioral finance" category:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews

Are you looking for anything in particular on this topic?
by Fallible
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 48
Views: 4633

Re: How to Underperform the Market

The many, many reasons for underperformance are listed in the best investment books, including Winning the Loser's Game by Charles Ellis (pgs. 61-63), A Wealth of common Sense by Ben Carlson (pgs. 20-25), The Four Pillars of Investing by Bill Bernstein ("The Psychology of Investing" pillar), etc. Th...
by Fallible
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?
Replies: 24
Views: 2094

Re: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?

An interesting reply to my self is that companies are seeking to drive up productivity to reduce labour costs. Amazon is famous for this. That pushes workers to work harder, and they make more mistakes . The equivalent of speeding up a car production line, where quality control is not measured. Yes...
by Fallible
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 625
Views: 37578

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

With a keen knowledge of the concept of "Stay the Course" and "Don't Buy High and Sell Low" and most importantly "Don't Try to Time the Market" I cannot simply put my head in the sand and pretend that the last ten years or more have been anything other then a disappointment for those of us with Int...
by Fallible
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?
Replies: 24
Views: 2094

Re: Are merchants more (too) careless these days?

Too careless, but probably not more. Human error is nothing new, never will be, but can in some cases be minimized and in fewer cases eliminated, for a time. What makes the mistakes of others more acceptable for me is when I remember my own. :(
by Fallible
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best way to determine if one should buy something or save their money?
Replies: 29
Views: 1790

Re: What is the best way to determine if one should buy something or save their money?

For example, let’s say someone is financially well off. They have no debt, plenty saved up, great income and continue to save every month. They then decide to buy a new computer, that costs around $2600, BUT they don’t really NEED the new computer. They just want it bc it has some nice features the...
by Fallible
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]
Replies: 55
Views: 2844

Re: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]

Although it's tempting, I would advise you to not take the money from the relative since it's not an emergency at this time. Paying this debt off by yourself with no outside help will build character and teach an important life lesson for the future. Self-reliance is an important virtue; I would al...
by Fallible
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]
Replies: 55
Views: 2844

Re: Should I Do This? [borrow from relative to pay off loan]

I've only had line for a couple years, yes I've missed a couple payments. I've paid off a couple, dropped some too. I'm not going to sell my car, I need to follow through with it. I've made EVERY payment, I'm not struggling to pay it is what I'm saying here. He wants to loan me the money so I avoid...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying used car - advice requested
Replies: 36
Views: 2392

Re: Buying used car - advice requested

... I would remove the 2012 Civic. 2012 was a lame duck year for the Civic. It was a brand new model in 2012 to replace the previous 6 year old model. However, it was widely panned by everyone so that Honda updated the vehicle in a single year. It is unheard of for an automobile company to change a...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying used car - advice requested
Replies: 36
Views: 2392

Re: Buying used car - advice requested

... - 2012 Civic LX with 60,000 miles for $13,000 ... All the prices are before fees and tax. I am looking for a simple reliable car that would last a while. ... I can comment only on the Civic. I bought a 2014 Civic LX last year, formerly a lease, apx. 24,000 mis. Asking price was around $13,000 a...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?
Replies: 87
Views: 7720

Re: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?

Do you give your friends parenting advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their children? Do you give your friends religious advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their immortal soul? Do you give your friends political advice if you think they are about to vot...
by Fallible
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning to Draw-Online course?
Replies: 8
Views: 627

Re: Learning to Draw-Online course?

Use this book...."Drawing on the right side of the brain"...Betty Edwards It has been around for years and it works...if you apply yourself as Uncle scrooge suggests...helped me 35 years ago. The book is still excellent. Agree about this one. No matter how one starts out with basic drawing, one wil...
by Fallible
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is leaving your job that pays well a good idea?
Replies: 74
Views: 6944

Re: When is leaving your job that pays well a good idea?

... 1) Sitting at a desk for 40 hours per week can often feel soul crushing. I’ve already done this for more than a decade and can’t imagine a lifetime spent for 40 working years plopped in front of computer monitors at a desk. ... My question to you older folks with more life experience: should I ...
by Fallible
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yogi said it. It must be true.
Replies: 21
Views: 2512

Re: Yogi said it. It must be true.

Thanks for posting. About time Yogi’s “wisdom” was applied to investing. But there’s at least one quote Vanguard uses that includes something he may not have said: “Don’t always follow the crowd, because nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.” I didn’t remember the first part about follow the ...
by Fallible
Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you become a Boglehead?
Replies: 53
Views: 3461

Re: How did you become a Boglehead?

Recently I read Rick Ferri's quote: The Education of an Index Investor: flounders in darkness, finds enlightenment, overcomplicates strategy, embraces simplicity. ... Rick's quote nicely and neatly describes the index investor, although indexing, to me, is just part of what it means to be a Boglehe...
by Fallible
Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk
Replies: 6
Views: 628

Re: Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk

Thanks for posting and I can see why Sid's dad is very proud.

One question I have (probably because I missed something somewhere): did the two students create Riskstyle and are introducing it in this paper for the first time? Also, I tried to open Risktyle.com, but nothing came up.
by Fallible
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2018?
Replies: 151
Views: 11878

Re: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2018?

Bad Blood by John Carreyrou. I loved it, hard to put down. Even if you followed the coverage of Theranos, the book is 80% of what happened before he started investigating them. I couldn't put it down, either, wondering how much longer the deception, lies, and bullying could continue before those po...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book recommendations on how to retire
Replies: 7
Views: 692

Re: Book recommendations on how to retire

There are excellent books on retirement listed under "Retirement" in the wiki's "Book: Recommendations and Reviews," some of them already mentioned here such as the Jane Bryant Quinn book, which has a good section on buckets: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_recommendations_and_reviews Many o...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book recommendations on how to retire
Replies: 7
Views: 692

Re: Book recommendations on how to retire

Is there a good read out there that explains the ins and outs of how to retire? Specifically, how do you utilize your retirement buckets to reduce tax implications. Want info on best approaches for using multiple types of retirement accounts like 401k, tIRA, HSA, Roth IRA, taxable account, etc. to ...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Books on Investment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1031

Re: Good Books on Investment?

The Bogleheads reading list is a good source of book titles that you may wish to investigate whether you want to read them or not. I believe that this is the reading list that livesoft refers to: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Category:Books_and_authors I also think that Taylor's investment "Gems"...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you learning or studying?
Replies: 99
Views: 7362

Re: What are you learning or studying?

One of the more difficult things I've had to learn is how to draw. There are rules for the technical aspects of drawing, the true draftsmanship part of it, but the artistic side is pretty much up to the individual - and that's the fun part. I've spent years learning to draw and will always be learni...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2754

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

Some people say psychology is useless. I don't think so. If you're referring to psychology as scientific study of the mind, it certainly can be quite useful. Good examples of it for investors are the books Thinking, Fast & Slow (as suggested here by Larry), Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely, You...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: free dinner investing seminar
Replies: 318
Views: 27319

Re: Got my Ruth's Chris seminar invitation, "Surviving Retirement"

... Anyway, I told my wife 'never argue with a man who is about to buy you a steak'! that's very funny. But remember, it's not really the salesperson buying you the steak. It's the other people around you listening to the presentation who sign up for the salesperson's annuity. They're the ones who ...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to help parents "see the light" with index investing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1410

Re: How to help parents "see the light" with index investing?

SuperCrunchy wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:59 pm
...
Where dos I draw the line of how involved I should get? ...
At this point let your parents draw the line. If you must, state your case to them, offer the book, then be patient and let it go. The next step is theirs.
by Fallible
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 359
Views: 15194

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Really looking forward to these podcasts and thanks to all for making them possible.

To continue the "Bogleheads' Guide" book series, now three strong with Taylor's new book, how about "The Bogleheads' Guide on Podcast with Rick Ferri."
by Fallible
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: free dinner investing seminar
Replies: 318
Views: 27319

Re: free dinner investing seminar

... i'd consider going to more but i'm not sure if the 3 hours of time is worth it. there's another offer for dad sitting on my desk that only asks for those with 500k investable assets so thinking about it. ... So everyone who attends is letting everyone else know, total strangers included, how mu...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4782

Re: bike helmets

But then I also grew up in the era of kids being able to ride bikes to school or wherever they wanted, Same here. And not only did we not wear helmets, I don't think we even knew where to get them if we wanted one. Maybe mail-order or something? There just wasn't a perception that bicycling was som...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Book Recommendations for a new Boglehead
Replies: 8
Views: 641

Re: Book Recommendations for a new Boglehead

Welcome to the forum!

A good book list awaits you from the Bogleheads' wiki:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Books:_ ... nd_reviews
by Fallible
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6712

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Well I have just seen this video where Jack Bogle himself says he sold his stocks in year 2000 because valuations did not make any sense to him in those years. :shock: https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg Minute 2:57 "I said, you know... with bonds yielding around 7% today, stocks yielding around 1%... sto...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4782

Re: bike helmets

Here's a good 2016 Consumer Reports article on the safety of helmets and hemet ratings that include MIPS helmets (favorable).

https://www.consumerreports.org/bike-he ... ke-helmet/
by Fallible
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4782

Re: bike helmets

... In part I just took a spill on my bike and while I don’t remember hitting my head, I went over the handlebars and had a touch of dizziness and headache after the fact so i wonder if my head glanced off the handlebars. ... I'm sure you know all this already, but I'll just mention it anyway. The ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5745

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

I find it generally fascinating that this industry has been able to normalize an ongoing percentage fee for advice. Think of all the professionals who advise or help us on a regular basis and how absolutely, utterly absurd it would be if one of them requested a never ending percentage of your finan...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bike helmets
Replies: 82
Views: 4782

Re: bike helmets

Hello cyclists, I’ve read one should replace bike helmets after any significant impact, or after a certain number of years have passed (much like a car seat). My helmet has a 2002 sticker on it and was purchased in 2004. Would you agree I should replace? I ride very casually and very rarely, so I d...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5745

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

This from Jason Zweig may not directly answer your question, but it comes close: "While some financial advisers who cater to individual investors are willing to calculate and report their own average historical returns, the vast majority still don’t—and probably won’t until investors smarten up and ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning Violin as an adult...1.5 years later
Replies: 197
Views: 28158

Re: Learning Violin as an adult...1.5 years later

Very nice. I'm glad you stayed with it. I read some of your earlier posts. I'm a music teacher and would be interested in knowing how much you practice, if you practice slowly, and if you sing. I've heard that in Europe every student is required to learn how to sight sing before beginning the study...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Do you subscribe to Consumer Reports?]
Replies: 31
Views: 2899

Re: [Do you subscribe to Consumer Reports?]

I no longer subscribe to it, but read it at the library and use it as needed.
by Fallible
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3185
Views: 968683

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After watching the excellent Steven Spielberg film, The Post , some months ago, I got curious about how close it played to the real events. So I re-read Katharine Graham's book, Personal History , and then the Pentagon Papers section in the book, Ben Bradlee: A Good Life , and thought it was close ...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3185
Views: 968683

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After watching the excellent Steven Spielberg film, The Post , some months ago, I got curious about how close it played to the real events. So I re-read Katharine Graham's book, Personal History , and then the Pentagon Papers section in the book, Ben Bradlee: A Good Life , and thought it was close ...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3185
Views: 968683

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After watching the excellent Steven Spielberg film, The Post , some months ago, I got curious about how close it played to the real events. So I re-read Katharine Graham's book, Personal History , and then the Pentagon Papers section in the book, Ben Bradlee: A Good Life , and thought it was close e...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9319

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Rick, I wonder if some of your change in recommendation is related to do it yourself investor behavior? Do you think a DIY simple 3 fund investor is less likely to tinker with the portfolio? Thanks, Dave We're all entitled to receive market returns. They are sitting there waiting for us, taunting u...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7356

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

The more posts I read, including my own, them more convinced I am that either we are inventing scenarios to worry about or just discussing things for sport. In fact, it seems to me the wisest person in the kingdom might be someone who just opens a Vanguard account with one fund the Balanced Index f...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times on current yield curve as powerful signal of recession
Replies: 44
Views: 4243

Re: New York Times on current yield curve as powerful signal of recession

There's an interesting article in the NY Times today on the current yield curve. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news Included ar...