Search found 7345 matches

by Fallible
Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

I finished the book. I doubt if I would have if it were not for the pandemic, but I am happy I did. ... The book on a whole was a mixed bag of good ideas and flaws. If Kahneman didn't seem to invoke (and imho encourage) the kind of worship that it appears to me he does in some circles, and particul...
by Fallible
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 83
Views: 12927

Re: Intelligent Investor: Wealthy vs Rich

I'd like to add the article is by Jason Zweig and it begins, It isn’t often that I receive a new book I feel I have to read, but I couldn’t wait to dig into “The Psychology of Money.” To be published next month, this 242-page, easy-to-read book by Morgan Housel isn’t about investing. It’s about how...
by Fallible
Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Bogleheads Conference Update
Replies: 33
Views: 3725

Re: 2020 Bogleheads Conference Update

Looking forward to the virtual conference and very appreciative of the hard work plannng for it by an outstanding board.
by Fallible
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you determine risk tolerance?
Replies: 106
Views: 5928

Re: How did you determine risk tolerance?

Fallible: My risk tolerance has definitely increased until now I scarcely notice bear markets and corrections. Here is a good rule of thumb about asset-allocation that lets me sleep well: Keeping my cash and bond allocation in the amount that I cannot afford to lose. Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle'...
by Fallible
Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

I finished the book. I doubt if I would have if it were not for the pandemic, but I am happy I did. ... The book on a whole was a mixed bag of good ideas and flaws. If Kahneman didn't seem to invoke (and imho encourage) the kind of worship that it appears to me he does in some circles, and particul...
by Fallible
Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?
Replies: 41
Views: 2429

Re: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?

... I feel a Boglehead philosophy would see entrepreneurship as far too risky. Statistically the best bet financially is probably to become a highly paid professional and climb the ladder and invest using Boglehead philosophy; however, I think choosing to be an entrepreneur was one of the best deci...
by Fallible
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amusing wisdom from Johnathan Clements
Replies: 3
Views: 1066

Re: Amusing wisdom from Johnathan Clements

This is clever and, yes, much truth there that Bogleheads especially would appreciate. It reminds me of Jason Zweig's "The Devil's Financial Dictionary": humorous, even satirical, but also educational.
by Fallible
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you determine risk tolerance?
Replies: 106
Views: 5928

Re: How did you determine risk tolerance?

"How did I determine risk tolerance?" Easy Answer : Suffering through about a dozen bear markets. :( Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "An ideal asset allocation incorporates the two most obvious dimensions of investing: risk and return." +1 Taylor, if you don't mind my asking, did ...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159603

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Jack Bogle said "Investing is not a science. It is a human activity that involves both emotional as well as rational behavior. Financial markets are far too complex to isolate any single variable with ease, as if conducting a scientific experiment." WSJ columnist Jason Zweig weighs in on the subjec...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159603

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is investing a science? Investing is an applied field of financial economics, why CJ is a science. Not sure for what CJ stands sorry. Investors use financial economics in the same way that doctors use biology and chemistry. Would you trust a doctor who said that corndogs were just as healthy as raw...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Older Women Lifting Weights
Replies: 128
Views: 12727

Re: Older Women Lifting Weights

DW trains, rides, and tends to, 2 large (18-21 hand) German dressage horses. This involves moving 50 lb bales of hay, 40 lb bags of grain which she picks up every 2 weeks in town. As well as maintaining the stables, arena, and grounds,, as well as helping me maintain and build everything else. She ...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you determine risk tolerance?
Replies: 106
Views: 5928

Re: How did you determine risk tolerance?

Dear Bogleheads, I'm a beginner and new to investing. This will be my first experience as an investor during a Presidential Election year. If the philosophy is to stay the course and hold steadfast, how do you actually do that during a Presidential Election year? or during any other turbulence? I w...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank autocancelled my cc - should I drop the bank?
Replies: 21
Views: 2317

Re: Bank autocancelled my cc - should I drop the bank?

Did the bank let you know earlier in some way that your card might be canceled due to inactivity?
by Fallible
Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pandemic buys that have improved quality of life?
Replies: 185
Views: 19265

Re: Pandemic buys that have improved quality of life?

Morning Summit cereal. Expensive, but very good. So expensive. So good. DH supplements this with his own mix of honey bunches of oats, coconut flakes, almonds (or pecans) and craisins. I just saw how much this cereal costs :shock: I just saw the cereal's nutrition information: two areas to always w...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 107
Views: 7546

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Some research indicates that risk tolerance increases with wealth. Could you point us to the research that indicates this? I'm interested in the methodology of how this was determined. Sure on one hand, the more you have, the more you can afford to lose and still be a-ok as has been mentioned here....
by Fallible
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... So, is Daniel Kahneman conceited about his Nobel and does he mention it too often in his book? I didn't notice this when I read it, but I'm skeptical (that word again :-) ) and have questions: how often are the mentions and how are they stated, such as the context? I didn't count, but enough ti...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

You could also argue that investing in the stock market is intrinsically risky. Over the past century people have tended to "win" more often than "lose" in the market. And many people believe that past returns are predictive of future returns, and "expect" a certain positive return over the next x ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 107
Views: 7546

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Some research indicates that risk tolerance increases with wealth. Could you point us to the research that indicates this? I'm interested in the methodology of how this was determined. Sure on one hand, the more you have, the more you can afford to lose and still be a-ok as has been mentioned here....
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

You could also argue that investing in the stock market is intrinsically risky. Over the past century people have tended to "win" more often than "lose" in the market. And many people believe that past returns are predictive of future returns, and "expect" a certain positive return over the next x ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... Kahneman does a good job in pointing out flaws in "expert thinking" . He does state that it takes a long time for "expert" to kick in, but he also says (and I tend to believe this) that increasing expertise and respect and adulation is often tainted by increasing overconfidence which may cloud ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tip Dental Hygienist for Teeth Cleaning? Thanks everyone.
Replies: 72
Views: 4937

Re: Tip Dental Hygienist for Teeth Cleaning?

Given the Covid risk she is taking to clean your teeth, maybe you should. The Covid risk is the only reason I would consider tipping, but still probably would not do it. It's just a feeling that this is not the profession for tipping. I do, however, understand the OP's appreciation for good work: A...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... I just finished the next chapter on Prospect Theory. It left me with a few questions: 1. If people are disproportionately loss-averse, how does that explain the immense popularity of casinos, where people go knowing their chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning, and very few...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... I just finished the next chapter on Prospect Theory. It left me with a few questions: 1. If people are disproportionately loss-averse, how does that explain the immense popularity of casinos, where people go knowing their chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning, and very few...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?
Replies: 121
Views: 5635

Re: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?

So many, many favorites, but... Anton Chekhov for his short stories, in particular "The Steppe" and the heartbreaking "Vanka."
by Fallible
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 138576

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

... I’m in a former hotspot area and here is what we did/do: 1. Stock up on gloves, masks, sanitizers, paper towels, hand soap, goggles, shields, etc. as we find them. 2. Buy a thermometer, oximeter, BP monitor and 90-day supply of meds. Keep a supply of garbage bags, tissues, water, pedialyte, sou...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio: 200 Ratings. 4 1/2 Stars
Replies: 9
Views: 967

Re: Bogleheads Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio: 200 Ratings. 4 1/2 Stars

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:07 pm
O2nz and Dottie57:

Thank you for catching my error of "4 funds" vs. "3- funds."

I may have unconsciously added a small-cap value fund. :oops: ...
Great rejoinder, Taylor. :) And congratulations on the book rating! :thumbsup
by Fallible
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: safety thing for stairs?
Replies: 42
Views: 2626

Re: safety thing for stairs?

Your vet should have some advice about the cat's behavior, which seems normal as he is young and happily exploring his new world. And the vet may also have suggestions for providing safety and preventing accidents.
by Fallible
Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: COVID Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2415

Re: COVID Portfolio

My advisor says Vanguard doesnt have a COVID specific product. Others do and my best friend has returned return on his investment in the last 6 weeks. Going back and forth with my advisor with no good answer. Was Vanguard sleeping on the most compelling event on our lifetimes? Welcome to the forum....
by Fallible
Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 125
Views: 9563

Re: Do you ever feel you've missed out due to the 3-fund portfolio?

... In a sense, rebalancing is "market timing" yet most bogleheads are not resistant to rebalancing. ... Rebalancing is bringing a portfolio that has deviated from a target asset allocation back into line. Market timing is basically predicting what the market will do and investing based on that pre...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 803
Views: 44247

Re: What are you listening to now

My neighbor thought he had something on me today. I walked across the field we share and I asked what he was doing. He said he was cleaning his billycans. I don't know why I know that term, perhaps from Scotland? And now I am listening to Slim Dusty. Included in what I am listening to his his versi...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: The Cost of Bad Market Timing Decisions in 2020 Was Annihilation
Replies: 39
Views: 6640

Re: Bloomberg: The Cost of Bad Market Timing Decisions in 2020 Was Annihilation

... As is often said in this forum, staying the course is the recommendation at the end of the article. So true and, fwiw, here are other comments in this article that are often said on this forum not by market pros, but predominantly by non-pros (and by Boglehead pros via Taylor Larimore's market ...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 150
Views: 10084

Re: Am I crazy to do this?

I have a simple 3 fund portfolio with a 80/20 split and 70/30 US/Int. I have been thinking of splitting my US stock portion into 50/50 TSM/Nasdaq index from a 100% TSM. I understand Nasdaq is extremely tech heavy but I really believe these tech companies are not going anywhere and we will continue ...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study claims active management better than benchmarks
Replies: 30
Views: 3215

Re: Study claims active management better than benchmarks

The study may have been "exhaustive" (apparently Arends's description), but overall not all that new about active management, as other posters here are noting. Here's the study's Abstract, followed by what investing legend Charles Ellis wrote about active managers in his book Winning the Loser's Gam...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?
Replies: 557
Views: 20638

Re: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?

Saw a blue bird family on my walk this morning. The babies might leave nest soon. :happy Cool! I saw a very touching scene yesterday. While driving home from the grocery store, I saw a breeding pair of Canada Geese slowly walking across a BUSY street with their 3 little goslings. Thankfully, all of...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety
Replies: 54
Views: 3644

Re: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety

I have stay the course so far this year. I have not sold any stock. Even re-balanced when it exceeded 5% threshold (that was very difficult, had some difficulty sleeping for a few weeks after and then market exploded up again). But I also have not been putting in any new money into the stock market...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Hedge Fund Star John Paulson Calls It Quits
Replies: 2
Views: 760

Re: WSJ: Hedge Fund Star John Paulson Calls It Quits

I read the book, The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History and it was amazing how he nearly lost the deal so many times but would pull it out with skill and, yes, luck. Btw, other publications are also carrying his quitting...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 143
Views: 14956

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... So my impressions of the research_ both my intuition (System 1) and my fact-checking (System 2) is that it is very sloppy (and, as a scientist, this is disturbing), and Kahneman's tendency to jump to such definitive statements about how it proves his thesis is especially disturbing (particularl...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4511
Views: 1264688

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

:P After hearing so many people rave about it on this site, I finally started Kahnemann's Thinking Fast and Slow. I'm not far enough into it yet to say what I think of it. I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only a...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Replies: 28
Views: 2071

Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

... How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem? ... There are lots of good opinions on this thread, but they don’t all agree, so you must be back to asking which one is the one to follow. And on it goes. My opinion is that your que...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4511
Views: 1264688

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

:P After hearing so many people rave about it on this site, I finally started Kahnemann's Thinking Fast and Slow. I'm not far enough into it yet to say what I think of it. I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only ab...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1451

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

... So from a wisdom, calculating point of view, having more than 60% of one's liquid wealth in stocks (vs bonds or cash) seems like a good decision, at least for the long term. But emotionally if I were to lose say 1M$ (at least as a paper loss) from a drawdown in stocks, I would feel terrible. So...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What questions to ask myself regarding my risk tolerance?
Replies: 13
Views: 902

Re: What questions to ask myself regarding my risk tolerance?

... I'm trying to better understand my personal risk tolerance (regarding my AA). I'm 41yo and have all retirement assets in Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 (which is 83/13, I believe). The market crash in April was the first real crash I experienced with substantial dollars in my accounts (closing...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Face Masks
Replies: 23
Views: 4025

Re: Face Masks

eBay and Walmart have had 50 packs as low as $8.96 recently. That makes me wonder if the quality is equivalent. The Costco masks are 3-ply. https://www.costco.com/byd-single-use-face-mask,-50-masks.product.100654341.html Haven't tried Costco, but regarding mask quality and effectiveness overall, mo...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My friend does not trust one brokerage Firm?
Replies: 24
Views: 1630

Re: My friend does not trust one brokerage Firm?

Hi Friends, I had a heated discussion with my friend about investing, she is a very conservative investor and worries about having her money with one firm, she split her investments between Vanguard and Fidelity index funds? Do my friend's worries make any sense? Boulous Was the discussion about he...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course
Replies: 10
Views: 905

Re: Staying the course

... Is there a situation where staying the course would not be wise. ... The answer to your question is a simple Yes! Staying the course implies the RIGHT course for the individual investor. If there are changes in circumstances on which a course (asset allocation) was based, the course may no long...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7914

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

... “I keep getting asked for a list of the next four black swans." ... This comment from Taleb is really quite funny, almost hilarious if you know the great pains he has taken over the years to say precisely what black swans are and are not. I suspect, though, that he was not laughing when he made...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the single best piece of exercise equipment you bought for your home?
Replies: 221
Views: 11608

Re: What is the single best piece of exercise equipment you bought for your home?

The single-best piece for use in the house: a stationary bike. Helped keep me in shape for outdoor bicycling, the stairs at home, and long walks.
by Fallible
Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13863

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

I think #4, "Risk Tolerance is Really Important and Static," needs important and clarifying background from the "Risk tolerance" page on the Bogleheads' wiki: The page is based on solid and credible writings, including "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing," "All About Asset Allocation," 2nd ed., by R...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Is this time different?"
Replies: 77
Views: 5669

Re: "Is this time different?"

Some posters here who question the need of pundits to predict might be interested in Nobelist Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking, Fast and Slow , the chapter on "The Illusion of Validity," and the section "The Illusions of Pundits." He writes: The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfi...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move into bonds/cash/money market before the bubble bursts?
Replies: 50
Views: 4916

Re: Move into bonds/cash/money market before the bubble bursts?

OP, why in the world have you come to a financial forum with the motto "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle" to ask this kind of question? I thought about that before I posted the question since I've read Bogle's books and have reviewed many of the posts in the forum. However, Jack Bogle isn't ...