Search found 6769 matches

by Fallible
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thank you, Honda - repair story
Replies: 17
Views: 1616

Re: Thank you, Honda - repair story

My wife's 2016 Civic, now with 35,900 miles and purchased 3 years and 5 months ago, recently began not producing cold air when the air conditioner was turned on. We took it to the dealer where they diagnosed it as a bad A/C compressor, requiring a repair of $1,100+. The dealer worked with corporate...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?
Replies: 21
Views: 1607

Re: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?

... I am having difficulty understanding why one's basic AA in retirement matters (within reason, of course) as long as one sticks to it. ... Your emphasis here is on sticking to it when it should be on the allocation you're sticking to. An AA first has to be one that's right for you, reflecting yo...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How did you overcome your fear of investing?
Replies: 33
Views: 2270

Re: How did you overcome your fear of investing?

It seems from your description that, while you " know " you are not your father, you still feel the emotional effects of his mistakes, as expressed in "uncharacteristic dread," "worried I'll lose money," "tightness in my chest," and "paralysis." You've already dealt with your fear quite well, learni...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Re: Asset Allocation - Risk

Friends: My wife and I are both retired (both 43), two kids (7 and 10). We withdraw about 2% per year. 529’s fully funded. Most calculators suggest I should be in the 65-75 equity range. I’m far higher, but I question my decision. I rationalize that we are young enough to weather some market cycles...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 4789

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

:shock: Here's a quote from our dearest John Bogle: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe. The markets would fail. ... There have been many articles written since Bogle's comment, apparently originally made in 2017, including one by him last year: There no longer c...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3803
Views: 1094196

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Landing On The Edge Of Eternity: 24 Hours At Omaha Beach", by Robert Kershaw (Pegasus Books NY 2018). ... 3) Plentiful personal descriptions of what the US soldiers suffered through during their attack. I was shaking my head in disbelief reading how a critical number of soaked fighters continued t...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4537
Views: 1168453

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Sandtrap wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:55 am
Saw on Youtube> full length.
...Cary Grant and Ingrid Bergman in "Notorious" ...
One of my favorite lines from the movie, via Alex's mother after he tells her he's married to an American agent: "We are protected from the enormity of your stupidity, for a time."
by Fallible
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3803
Views: 1094196

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Your Medical Mind by Jerome Groopman, M.D., and his wife, Pamela Hartzband, M.D., about how deciding what medicines to take and procedures to undergo is becoming harder than ever, partly because so much more information is available. They write: "How do you know what is right for you? The answer of...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2539

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

Can I call myself a Bogleheads? I’m a big fan of Vanguard and Jack Bogle, but I don’t follow his asset allocation recommendations. My portfolio is 100% Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). I never sell, just buy more every month. My wife and I plan to live off the dividend income, and pass the portfolio to ...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]
Replies: 33
Views: 2382

Re: Bogleheads vs Hedgefunds [or vs. venture capital]

Well, I just think. While it's nice to save funds for retirement, I'm 26 and that's not exactly my goal. My goal is to earn money and with the money I have make it earn more money, and if I can create value with that money. I don't want to earn money by shorting stuff. I want to invest in things wh...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Why not add a "like" button to Boglehead posts?
Replies: 185
Views: 28284

Re: A way to "thank" posts

The issue of a "like" button has been brought up in the past. There is a long discussion of this subject (and why the forum owners are not in favor of such a button) in this thread . If you would like to express appreciation for a particularly helpful post, a simple "Thanks for the great informatio...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: June 6, 1944 D Day and General Patton [D-Day plus 11 days, a war article by Ernie Pyle]
Replies: 42
Views: 3764

Re: D-Day plus 11 days, a war article written by Ernie Pyle

camden wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:29 am
After reading that, I can see that Pyle deserved his fame. The power of observation and quiet understatement.
That describes his style well. As an especially sensitive observer of the horrors of war, he knew what details to bring out; as a talented writer, he knew how to bring them out.
by Fallible
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 321
Views: 37333

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

but for me the real fear would be the fear of stocks going down for like...decades. What is so scary about a 2 year blip? At the time - no one knew it was a "blip". ... No one knew if it would ever come back up or how long. ... And that's what was " so scary ": No one knew . This can't be fully und...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 70th Birthday Party Ideas
Replies: 11
Views: 722

Re: 70th Birthday Party Ideas

I'm planning a 70th birthday party for my mom and her twin. They have not celebrated their birthday together in at least 50 years. I'm gathering old photos but what else would make it memorable? You are already doing quite a bit - their first celebration together in 50 years and old photos to go ov...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "John C. Bogle Quotes" by Rick Van Ness"
Replies: 7
Views: 740

Re: "John C. Bogle Quotes" by Rick Van Ness"

Thanks for posting, Taylor, and thanks to Rick for compiling the quotes and for his excellent books and website.
by Fallible
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 50
Views: 8276

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

How to balance saving and spending. Throughout life, it's the balance that is important - and often hardest - to achieve. Save as early and often as you can to take advantage of the magic of compounding, but don't save to the point of denying yourself worthwhile pleasures that can bring lasting happ...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA : willingness, ability, need
Replies: 24
Views: 1845

Re: AA : willingness, ability, need

I have been reading a bit lately and trying to come up with a suitable AA. Most recommend AA should be based on the ability, willingness and need to take risk. I understand ability and willingness clearly, but having a hard time understanding “need”. The "need" is essentially defined as how much re...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor expectations are pro-cyclical
Replies: 3
Views: 443

Re: Investor expectations are pro-cyclical

Are investors chronically pessimistic? No—but that doesn't mean they adhere to rational expectations DWYER GUNN Chicago Booth Review (University of Chicago business school) APR 09, 2019 The assumption that investors hold rational expectations of market returns is central to many asset pricing model...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 5261

Re: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks

... (1) If, during retirement, the baby boomers experience another 2000 or 2008, will they, on average, panic sell or stay the course? If the average baby boomer has under saved, and if they panic sell, will they, on average, ever materially participate in the market again? When faced with a meager...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 5261

Re: The impact of Baby Boomers on the Future of U.S. Stocks

... (1) If, during retirement, the baby boomers experience another 2000 or 2008, will they, on average, panic sell or stay the course? If the average baby boomer has under saved, and if they panic sell, will they, on average, ever materially participate in the market again? When faced with a meager...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?
Replies: 23
Views: 1774

Re: Are market downturns & crashes really driven by fear?

The powerful emotion of fear (and greed) plays out in many ways in the markets, as in life. It's sometimes difficult to know exactly how it does that, at what point, or how much. But since investors must always deal with risk and uncertainty (and their own tendencies to loss aversion), fear is proba...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3803
Views: 1094196

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"The Index Revolution" by Charles Ellis, introduction by B. Malkiel. Some good personal history of his transition from his DLJ days as a committed active investor and practitioner to an index fund promoter. Lots of good explanations of why index funds outperform, but not that much new for most BH's...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: "Picking managers on the basis of past performance is a mug’s game."
Replies: 7
Views: 1092

Re: The Economist: "Picking managers on the basis of past performance is a mug’s game."

As the article says: "The Woodford crisis illustrates a much broader trend. Investors have steadily been realising that the experts can struggle to outperform the market ." Some of the best writing on that struggle among experts comes from Charles Ellis in his classic book, Winning the Loser's Game ...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: very concerned about stock and bond movement
Replies: 26
Views: 2047

Re: very concerned about stock and bond movement

... my huge worry is I see bonds and stocks moving very fast up together, now thats currently making me a lot of money BUT....if they can go up together they can go down together! They might go down together or they might not. That they may be moving together now is no guarantee they'll continue to...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15449

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

The definitional fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety:" Safety is an emotive word, not a financial term of art. Let's stop using it on this forum. PJW Good point, good idea. Also, when recommending some bonds in a portfolio, top pros who obviously know the downsides of bonds, clearly mean relativel...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to try to time the market
Replies: 27
Views: 2042

Re: Convince me not to try to time the market

Generally I agree with the Bogleheads philosophy and am tentatively planning to set-up a 3-fund portfolio with a ~70/30 stock/bond split. However, I'm hearing lots of warnings that the market is due for a major correction soon. ... I know it's unwise to try to time the market, but should I consider...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an active mutual fund ever appropriate?
Replies: 21
Views: 1795

Re: Is an active mutual fund ever appropriate?

I’ve always steered clear from active funds and have s very nicely balanced portfolio of index funds. Lately I’ve been thinking of taking a little more risk and investing some extra cash into an active fund. I know most Bogleheads forsake these funds, but surely it can be appropriate given ones par...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This market just scares me...
Replies: 43
Views: 4174

Re: This market just scares me...

... I know this flies in the face of "pick your AA and stick with it", but - the idea of taking any of that cash and investing it in equity right now just FREAKS ME OUT. ... Staying the course means staying the course that is right for you, one that reflects your ability, willingness, and need to t...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree
Replies: 62
Views: 5833

Re: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree

In a recent article, Swedroe added to his list of "best behavioral finance books", a recent one: Daniel Crosby’s The Behavioral Investor https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/06/03/a-great-new-book-on-behavioral-investing-1 ... I haven't read the Crosby book, which sounds interesting al...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you talk to investment advisors socially?
Replies: 31
Views: 2045

Re: How do you talk to investment advisors socially?

Was at a gathering of people (intended just to meet up and hang out), and ran into an investment advisor (who managed small businesses and individuals). Asked her if she knew about bogleheads and she told me that that was a "risky" strategy. :shock: After I had a solid belly laugh, I wasn't really ...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree
Replies: 62
Views: 5833

Re: Swedroe is far from a passive investor and I am beginning to agree

... Although all my life I have been a Bogleheads follower, at the age of 70, I begin to realize that time is not in my favor, and I may not be able to recover from a 50% market fall. So, I have began entertaining the idea to give up potential additional profit (long term B&H) for safety by applyin...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay course" conflicts: Help me understand.
Replies: 10
Views: 1247

Re: "Stay course" conflicts: Help me understand.

Hello, I like the writing of Rick Ferri, but I was confused over one aspect. He states that there are three main aspects of investing: Philosophy, Strategy, Discipline. To follow your strategy with discipline, i.e. stay the course, over a very long period of time like 20-30 years. Now this last par...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing
Replies: 30
Views: 2260

Re: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing

Generally speaking, being a conservative - or aggressive or in-between - investor is never a bad thing if it is right for the investor.
by Fallible
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again
Replies: 83
Views: 13992

Re: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again

... Ok, i know what you probably mean - optimum in the sense that what's the cheapest/or most efficient. I'm just pointing out that from the perspective of the average joe, I believe optimum does mean a low cost financial adviser. My favorite use of the word "optimal" is in my signature line below....
by Fallible
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again
Replies: 83
Views: 13992

Re: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again

All the other guests were engaged in the presentation and everyone signed up for a meeting except for us. Several people said "that's terrible!" every time the adviser claimed a grandmother would not be able to see her grandchildren because of poor investment performance. ... These audience respons...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again
Replies: 83
Views: 13992

Re: You May Never See Your Grandchildren Again

Wow, classic scare tactics, and the scariest thing of all is the "advisor" doing the scaring. Glad you attended, Rick, and I hope the other attendees will see your article.
by Fallible
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding the echo chamber?
Replies: 22
Views: 2402

Re: Avoiding the echo chamber?

What else (or where else) do the rest of you read to strengthen your knowledge of investing? You've learned the basics of wise investing and have followed through. :-) Now the focus is to stay the course, which means to maintain the right course, one that will always reflect your own unique needs a...
by Fallible
Fri May 31, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does money/lack of money preoccupy you?
Replies: 90
Views: 8578

Re: Does money/lack of money preoccupy you?

Hi all, I realize this is not a consumer issue but since I began my financial life "makeover" in 2018, I've found myself preoccupied with MONEY, to the detriment of hobbies, family and fun. I'm turning into a real one-dimensional character. Have you talked with family members or friends about this?...
by Fallible
Thu May 30, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do active managers do differently?
Replies: 17
Views: 1003

Re: What do active managers do differently?

Here's a nice, straightforward comparison of active and passive management from Investopedia (link below): KEY TAKEAWAYS Active management is when managers actively pick investments in an effort to outperform some benchmark, usually a market index. Passive management is when a fund manager attempts ...
by Fallible
Wed May 29, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

Who are these guys/gals that run and write for this site? Could find no background on that. Much has been written about how some top pros, probably those with the quantitative prowess and behavioral discipline you mention, have beaten the market, though not consistently. As for the rest of us, it's...
by Fallible
Wed May 29, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 13872

Re: Market timers thread

I think I'm a believer in market timing. I'm also quite certain that a market timer who has not developed a completely quantitative systematic strategy is virtually doomed for failure. Trading on intuition/feelings is literally a baseless trading strategy. A well developed strategy should have a co...
by Fallible
Tue May 28, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning Violin as an adult... short audio update
Replies: 215
Views: 33804

Re: Learning Violin as an adult...1000 hours in...

Not much new in my musical journey other than plenty of practice, lessons, and etudes. I did record myself playing this short piece as I thought it sounded nice and I enjoyed the change in speed. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rdcnvAFkzu6Z2ptxkwigl0h7VbtjsXL5/view?usp=drivesdk Sounds good, as if ...
by Fallible
Mon May 27, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes wrong after index enlightenment
Replies: 41
Views: 5241

Re: What goes wrong after index enlightenment

I agree with the observation in the quote below, and you see this sort of complicated approach often enough here on BH. However, in some cases, it seems to be a form of 'entertainment' for those who do it. If they enjoy doing all the research and thinking, and it saves them from spending money on s...
by Fallible
Mon May 27, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Optimizing Asset Allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 1507

Re: Optimizing Asset Allocation

Hello everyone, I recently met with a free advisor from TIAA where I hold my 403b to discuss my current asset allocation. My advisor recommended the following plan for my 403b based on my high tolerance for risk and long investment window (+30-35 years). I spent most of my twenties in school and fe...
by Fallible
Sun May 26, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No more print Money magazine
Replies: 87
Views: 8602

Re: No more print Money magazine

I'm sorry to see Money Magazine go. We discovered Bogleheads through Jason Zwieg's September 2001 article "Here Come the Bogleheads". WIthout that article, we may have never known about the Bogleheads. Ed And without the print version back in the late '80s, I might not have known about Jack Bigle a...
by Fallible
Sat May 25, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 14673

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

Thank you for an important and timely thread, Valuethinker. I often wonder whether the forum is attracting more of these “too conservative” critics because it represents the success and growing popularity of passive investing over active investing, so they come to challenge (even taunt?) indexers. I...
by Fallible
Fri May 24, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly cross-country with a cat
Replies: 56
Views: 2127

Re: Fly cross-country with a cat

blackwhisker wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 5:05 pm
I might have to fly cross-country with my cat. ...
Absolutely check first with your vet.
by Fallible
Fri May 24, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 6300

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

From what I’ve learned from reading, from this great forum, and from my own investing experiences, our reactions to our experiences vary greatly owing mainly to individual differences . Some bear market examples: ... While experience alone has value in measuring our tolerance for risk, in the end, ...
by Fallible
Thu May 23, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 6300

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

I think what we're seeing here is that experience can measure risk tolerance, but how well and effectively it can depends on how each of us reacts to it. From what I’ve learned from reading, from this great forum, and from my own investing experiences, our reactions to our experiences vary greatly o...
by Fallible
Wed May 22, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A thought exercise
Replies: 13
Views: 2229

Re: A thought exercise

sunshine18 wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:28 am
The Wizard wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:24 am
sunshine18 wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:20 am
No one knows anything and the market always goes up...
... except when it doesn't...
Short term yes but long term there has not been an instance when the market hasn't recovered.
As long as it recovers before the money is needed.