Search found 7243 matches

by Fallible
Thu May 28, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 82
Views: 8413

Re: This article is scaring me.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid Boglehead perspective? Please tell me this has some major holes? Step 1. Stop reading the guardian. Step 2. Read this. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/1...
by Fallible
Thu May 28, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tips for Managing a Parent's Finances?
Replies: 7
Views: 740

Re: Tips for Managing a Parent's Finances?

My mom is having memory issues and recently has asked me to help manage her finances. We signed a durable financial and medical power of attorney, but I haven't tested it yet. I'm starting to put together a list of her accounts, login credentials, and bills. She's almost 65, and hasn't been working...
by Fallible
Thu May 28, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 82
Views: 8413

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

[Thread title edited by moderator oldcomputerguy] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid Boglehead perspective? Please tell me this has some major holes? If you don't look for and read scary articles...
by Fallible
Wed May 27, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I invest for my retired mom?
Replies: 16
Views: 1179

Re: How do I invest for my retired mom?

... She's skeptical of the stock market, and I'm sure would get nervous at even small losses (though, I can likely talk her through small downturns). ... Welcome to the forum! From this and other descriptions of your mom, I think it's best to stay away from the stock market. Even if you can "talk h...
by Fallible
Wed May 27, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 82
Views: 8413

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

I have no idea whether the risks Roubini lists will actually happen, but, FWIW, I do take some heart that he refers to his list only as "risks," and that in the last paragraph of his article he adds conditions (I boldfaced) on whether his 10 risks would actually play out and even how they might not....
by Fallible
Tue May 26, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid tinkering?
Replies: 40
Views: 2004

Re: How to avoid tinkering?

Some ways to avoid tinkering: -get bored watching nothing happening in the short term -find a safer, more challenging interest -become content or disciplined to just watch and not tinker -read up on what attracts humans to the short term (the brain is wired to see patterns in the short term when the...
by Fallible
Tue May 26, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads' Reading Strategies for Boglehead Forums
Replies: 21
Views: 1382

Re: Bogleheads' Reading Strategies for Boglehead Forums

I'm curious about Bogleheads' reading strategies for reading Boglehead discussions. Fairly often I see responses from people to posts that don't answer the OP's question, that hijack (intentionally or not) a thread, or that respond in a way the OP explicitly asks them not to. ... What's your readin...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: MEMORIAL DAY
Replies: 35
Views: 2755

Re: MEMORIAL DAY

Adding my thanks, Taylor. Good to see this posted and the video.
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6289

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

... Ask yourself a simple question: Are you willing to work an extra 10-20 years because you can't come to terms with volatility? Go 50/50 and learn that making or losing money shouldn't change how you live your life. This is the right question to ask. OP, you say that you have no risk tolerance, b...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ASSET Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 731

Re: ASSET Allocation

of decline for various stock/bond allocations: Asset Allocation % (Stock/Bond) Exposure to Maximum Loss 20/80 5% 30/70 10% 40/60 15% 50/50 20% 60/40 25% 70/30 30% 80/20 35% 90/10 40% 100/0 50% As I continue to try to determine my AA I’m trying to forecast what the worst case scenario is so I’m not ...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6289

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

... Ask yourself a simple question: Are you willing to work an extra 10-20 years because you can't come to terms with volatility? Go 50/50 and learn that making or losing money shouldn't change how you live your life. This is the right question to ask. OP, you say that you have no risk tolerance, b...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ASSET Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 731

Re: ASSET Allocation

of decline for various stock/bond allocations: Asset Allocation % (Stock/Bond) Exposure to Maximum Loss 20/80 5% 30/70 10% 40/60 15% 50/50 20% 60/40 25% 70/30 30% 80/20 35% 90/10 40% 100/0 50% As I continue to try to determine my AA I’m trying to forecast what the worst case scenario is so I’m not ...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6289

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

It's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek question but I'm also somewhat serious. Recent market volatility is making me sick, to the point where I've learned that I'm not sure I can handle it. ... I'm 38 with 300k in my tIRA, previously set at 90/10 VTSAX/bonds. Where might a prudent Boglehead suggest I keep...
by Fallible
Mon May 25, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5187

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

I got out in march, saw the market drop further and then rise, rise, rise and now, if the market doesn´t come down again, I have missed the boat :oops: Anyone else who learned not to time the market? This is about finding your tolerance for risk, as others here have noted in their examples. Focus n...
by Fallible
Sun May 24, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 107
Views: 5439

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

I've come to think that good dieting is like good investing: simple, but not easy. With both, what's simple is basically calories in, calories out, and what's not easy is dieter/investor behavior, i.e., self-discipline. I eat mainly a Mediterranean diet (fish, fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts)...
by Fallible
Sun May 24, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did you change your investing approach?
Replies: 36
Views: 1915

Re: Why did you change your investing approach?

I changed my investing approach in the late '80s from active to passive after discovering John Bogle and low-cost indexing. Will be forever thankful for that discovery.
by Fallible
Sun May 24, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant
Replies: 25
Views: 1959

Re: Does larger portfolio make one more or less risk tolerant

this was a question I saw early on after joining bogleheads and I found it immensely interesting because there is no right answer in and of itself. Some will obviously say if you've won the game stop playing. But others have said, if you've won the game, while you don't have to play anymore, that d...
by Fallible
Sun May 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1206

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

I’m trying to find the right asset allocation mix for our long term investing strategy (20+ Years) and keep getting back and forth between the pendulum of 90/10 to 60/40 (Stocks / Bonds). Sometime I feel that 90/10 is the right mix given that we have a long term horizon and a stable income source, ...
by Fallible
Sat May 23, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11447

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

David Tepper? He is actually a stock picker. You aren’t doing what he is doing. Tepper’s remarks were probably part of a pump and dump strategy for some of his shorts. The Bogleheads here are sincerely practicing what they preach. Talking up your book IS practicing what you preach. Would it have be...
by Fallible
Fri May 22, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3573

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

... The thing is, we really don't know if eating it gets us infected and if so how much viral load is necessary for an infection to take place. Unfortunately there is still so much we don't know to be very confident about our precesses and what is really necessary to stay safe. Though I believe kno...
by Fallible
Fri May 22, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3573

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

Updated CDC guidelines say the coronavirus does not spread easily from contaminated surfaces. A key word is "easily." Links below to the updated CDC website and a quote, and a "Washington Post" article (scroll down): From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-1...
by Fallible
Fri May 22, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 2367

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

I don't buy individual stocks to make a killing. In general I expect the returns to be more or less in line with the broader market. I buy individual stocks with a small % of my portfolio because: 1. I like it 2. It's educational 3. It keeps me grounded in the realities of business & the economy 4....
by Fallible
Fri May 22, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 2367

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:08 pm
...
I bought 3 individual stocks, MGM, MCD, and AAPL. All three are higher than what I paid for them - especially MGM (in terms of %).

Now the question is how long do I hold them? ...
Shouldn't the question about how long to hold be asked/answered before buying?
by Fallible
Thu May 21, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 614
Views: 32463

Re: What are you listening to now

Today I have been listening to a collection of CDs my neighbor gave me. He was cleaning out his sister's home who recently died. I'm down to the last few songs. Started listening early this morning. The collection is Giants of the Big Band Era , a CD from each of these groups: -Glen Miller Orchestr...
by Fallible
Thu May 21, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 614
Views: 32463

Re: What are you listening to now

Today I have been listening to a collection of CDs my neighbor gave me. He was cleaning out his sister's home who recently died. I'm down to the last few songs. Started listening early this morning. The collection is Giants of the Big Band Era , a CD from each of these groups: -Glen Miller Orchestr...
by Fallible
Thu May 21, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 3
Views: 957

Re: "5 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

Sound advice at this time. The last one, to take time to think about one's financial plan, the "big picture," seems especially wise after so much has happened so fast, the pandemic, the economy, job losses, and the market. As Benz said, "I think it's a good opportunity to check in on the totality of...
by Fallible
Thu May 21, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6086

Re: I freaked out…now what?

I’ve never sold on fear in my life and know better, but on 3/13 I sold 100% of my investments. I was down like 8% for year. I would be even to 2% up for the year as things stand today. My investments were about a 50/50 allocation. ... I was planning on retiring in March of 21. Given how bad things ...
by Fallible
Thu May 21, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11447

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

... Now, very upset that I missed out on a 5%+ rally. Choose your adventure---do you: A) Admit that you screwed up, buy back into TSM immediately, and forget it... You've already admitted you screwed up, so time to move on. The first thing you should do is LEARN AND UNDERSTAND where you screwed up....
by Fallible
Wed May 20, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures? And what do you think newbies will learn from other newbies? Bogleheads ...
by Fallible
Wed May 20, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3573

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

How do you safely clean frozen vegetable packages prior to putting them in the freezer after grocery shopping? What product(s) have you used as frozen vegetable packages may be porous - they are not hard surfaces. This is a good question I've been trying to answer satisfactorily for weeks and this ...
by Fallible
Wed May 20, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we should cash out and wait for a crash or get into bitcoin / oil futures? And what do you think newbies will learn from other newbies? Bogleheads ...
by Fallible
Tue May 19, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is like a birthday cake
Replies: 6
Views: 936

Re: Investing is like a birthday cake

I'll never look at a birthday cake in quite the same way again, but I'll also remember this good article about low costs and simplicity. Thanks, Rick. :-)
by Fallible
Tue May 19, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: investmenting books
Replies: 28
Views: 1511

Re: investmenting books

Looking for a book on index funds and general personal finance for my niece and her husband. Both in early 30s and doing well, but are using a high cost personal finance manager....charging 1% annual plus high expense ratio fees and 5.5% load funds. I know there was a Bogelhead book years ago (whic...
by Fallible
Tue May 19, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice
Replies: 14
Views: 1147

Re: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice

... I think Japanese stocks are undervalued and the worst is behind Japan, and will outperform the S & P 500 in the future hence the 10% allocation. Also I am quite young, so can take on a lot more risk hence the very large allocation to small and mid caps – I believe tho over 40 years the high ris...
by Fallible
Mon May 18, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]

I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes. ... Wondering if we should have a sub forum where newbies can hang out for a while until they learn the ropes rather than trying to convince the rest of us we shoul...
by Fallible
Sun May 17, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting from Scratch
Replies: 7
Views: 871

Re: Starting from Scratch

Hi! I’m new to investing and wanted to get some ideas about where to start/modify. best advice is to educate yourself on investing before making changes to your portfolio (and i mean that in a nice way). take a guess on how i know that to be true... :happy as a start, in addition to the advice from...
by Fallible
Sat May 16, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?
Replies: 463
Views: 16033

Re: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?

... I have been watching the last couple of days a robin trying to get a tied on piece of string from a clematis support. He tried and tried. Finally I went out to cut the string, but left it hanging. He came back, I guess, because the string is gone. He is a persistent robin. ... A persistent robi...
by Fallible
Sat May 16, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4392
Views: 1252182

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Finished and recommend: The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis. Halfway through and recommend already: The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Daniel Levitan, a neuroscientist and cognitive psychologist who shows how the brain works to organize information. I earlier rea...
by Fallible
Fri May 15, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing!
Replies: 36
Views: 2468

Re: Stop me from market timing!

... My desired exposure is 60% US Index, 20% International Index, 10% Bonds, 10% Stock Picks (giving Buffet's intrinsic value a try) The problem is probably here: first experience in a major market crash, discovering more risk than you were prepared for, leading to panic selling. An alternative: lo...
by Fallible
Thu May 14, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: New bogleheads induction

I’ve noticed that the vast majority of new posters on this forum are still convinced regarding market timing and other similar themes. The experienced, long term posters spend a lot of time trying to (often unsuccessfully) teach these newbies. Personally, I’m starting to find it quite tiring. Wonde...
by Fallible
Thu May 14, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should stocks/bonds mix be based on goals, risk tolerance, or maximizing return?
Replies: 11
Views: 771

Re: Should stocks/bonds mix be based on goals, risk tolerance, or maximizing return?

Asset allocation (stocks/bonds mix) can be very difficult to decide on, because there are different ways to go about it. How did you determine yours? Here are a few different scenarios to consider: 1. Asset Allocation based on Goals : Working with “expected future returns,” and using something like...
by Fallible
Thu May 14, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?
Replies: 463
Views: 16033

Re: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?

Miriam2 wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 1:43 am
...
Fallible wrote:Just a decent video of all this could've entertained a wide audience, but it’s all just in my memory. :oops:
No it's not just in your memory - you just painted moving pictures in our little heads :D
Miriam2, your comment just made my day. Thank you!
by Fallible
Wed May 13, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?
Replies: 463
Views: 16033

Re: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?

I'm just an amateur bird watcher in nearby parks and from my porch enjoying the usual robins, sparrows, finches, mourning doves, bluejays, an occasional cardinal and endless other species I can't identify. I often wonder what’s so relaxing about watching birds, but relaxing it is. And also fun. Some...
by Fallible
Wed May 13, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing AA to fit life events without overfitting to recent market experience
Replies: 4
Views: 297

Re: Changing AA to fit life events without overfitting to recent market experience

Does worrying about “ overfitting to recent experience” fit under “evaluating jitters ” when considering AA? ... I would say yes, because when you refer to "overfitting," "worrying," and to "jitters," you are describing your reaction to risk and how much of it you can and want to tolerate based on ...
by Fallible
Wed May 13, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"
Replies: 44
Views: 5498

Re: Larry Swedroe - "What If I've Over Estimated My Tolerance For Risk?"

Study after study has shown that many people can't handle nearly what they think they can. They usually misjudge their own risk tolerance, leading to worse mistakes than if they simply had decreased their risk. I'd have to agree... I noticed that in myself this time around. While I didn't do anythi...
by Fallible
Mon May 11, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Asset Allocation when 90 or older?
Replies: 21
Views: 1423

Re: Adjust Asset Allocation when 90 or older?

I often read that money needed in X number of years (varies anywhere from 3-10 Years) should not be in the stock market. Much is discussed about when a person is nearing retirement. What about nearing death? If someone is 90+, should their money be in stock market? Under present tax system the cost...
by Fallible
Mon May 11, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3521

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I think this blog by Morgan Housel about being satisfied with "good enough" rather than aiming for precision is appropriate here. He begins with a stunning example of scientific precision and notes: This is a great reminder that some fields work with amazing precision. They are governed by pure math...
by Fallible
Sun May 10, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4180

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

Good posts here about risk tolerance and "scary" stocks, even when they can be the best alternative. Jonathan also warns investors about realizing that even if stocks do deliver 6% a year, their own returns might be different without broad diversification. These are the kinds of warnings to investor...
by Fallible
Sun May 10, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospice care - room and board
Replies: 33
Views: 2586

Re: Hospice care - room and board

So sorry to hear of your mom, but what a blessing you could be there for her to the end.

Take care and thank you for letting your fellow Bogleheads know.