Search found 6039 matches

by Fallible
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1498

Re: Thoughts on my asset allocation?

Hi guys, my asset allocation is as follows: 15% Total US bonds. Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) 35% Total US stocks. Vanguard Total Stock (VTI) 25% US small value. Vanguard Small-cap Value (VBR) 25% Emerging market. Vanguard Emerging Market (VWO) I'm in my mid-twenties with barely any asset at thi...
by Fallible
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best vehicle for seniors?
Replies: 57
Views: 3278

Re: Best vehicle for seniors?

This New York Times article on safer cars for seniors should be helpful.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/well ... -road.html
by Fallible
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9668

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

No denying that recent retirees have done well with good market returns in this decade. But I would hope that folks posting and reading here already have an asset allocation in place that will take much of the sting out of the next big downturn. I’m two years into retirement and hold the “Wellesley...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotions of Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 652

Re: The Emotions of Investing

Andrew Lo's piece on whether robos can do emotions is interesting. Instead of artificial intelligence, we should first conquer artificial emotion - by constructing algorithms that accurately capture human behavior, we can build countermeasures to protect us from ourselves. Also liked the Marvin Mins...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2077

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

Another good article from Ben Carlson. And it all comes down to this: Regardless of when it happens, it’s intelligent behavior for investors to plan ahead to know what they’ll do when it does. If you can’t get comfortable with accepting losses you shouldn’t be in the stock market to begin with. Than...
by Fallible
Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8728

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

She's done well with her money, seems to have enough, and has recognized an important need to get away from market risk. But the following comment does make me wonder if she might get back in for the wrong reasons: But if the market totally tanks tomorrow, you ask, and stocks become such a crazy bar...
by Fallible
Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7718

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

Pssst. "Apple, table, penny." How many people know what I am talking about? Zen question: is it really cheating to know the answer to a memory test by heart? You're not really supposed to remember the three items after you leave the office. And you're not supposed to teach everyone the only three t...
by Fallible
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Probably the World's Best Investment Forum"
Replies: 34
Views: 4731

Re: "PROBABLY THE WORLD'S BEST INVESTMENT FORUM"

I am a critical person, but there is NO DOUBT this is the best investment forum that exists. A lot of that has to do with the intelligent and wide spread talents of many of the contributors on the site. Honestly, I feel like you could ask ANY question in the world (finance or otherwise) and get a g...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in index funds at this moment
Replies: 50
Views: 3641

Re: Investing in index funds at this moment

But what if someone is 67 years old, a year away from retirement and with lots of cash on the sidelines. Shouldn't that make someone leery of putting this money at risk after this historic run up in stock prices? This a reason it would help to know the OP's age and at least some finances, unless th...
by Fallible
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in index funds at this moment
Replies: 50
Views: 3641

Re: Investing in index funds at this moment

Is it a good time to invest in index funds? Right now the stock market is at it's most overvalued by the Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) ratio since 1929 and the peak of the dot com bubble. It feels like a correction is due at any point now. Generally, you should not take market ...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Some Fee-Only Advisers Charge Commissions Too"
Replies: 2
Views: 388

Re: "Some Fee-Only Advisers Charge Commissions Too"

As Zweig says: If you want to hire a financial planner who charges only fees, you will have to ask probing questions. Start with these: Are you a fiduciary, who must always act in my best interests? Will you put that in writing? Does anybody else ever pay you to advise me and, if so, do you earn mor...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?
Replies: 45
Views: 3574

Re: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?

It really hasn't changed much for me since I started investing in the market 30 years ago. I think that's because I read a lot about mutual funds and the market before getting in. Still, I stumbled out of the starting gate by going with a commission-based broker, but soon realized the mistake, disco...
by Fallible
Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"
Replies: 17
Views: 2462

Re: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"

Thanks, Taylor, very good article, and I think the humility aspect is very important. Some people like to believe they are in total control and they tend to micro-manage and make constant changes to their portfolio. Getting too close and losing the big picture is costly. Paul Agree, especially abou...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 493

Re: Asset allocation

Welcome to the forum. Have you read the wiki on asset allocation? https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation Another good read is pro Boglehead Rick Ferri's book, All About Asset Allocation, 2nd ed. I think 60/40 is the right allocation for you now considering your stated risk tolerance. The b...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: An individual who owes me money wants my routing and account numbers for ACH transfer. Safe?
Replies: 76
Views: 6378

Re: An individual who owes me money wants my routing and account numbers for ACH transfer. Safe?

He emailed to say he sent a "test" $1 transfer, and is asking me to confirm that I see this. So you've already given him the information? Yes, I gave it. And then, :oops: maybe I should have paused. But... The issue seems to be either that you are not sure you can trust this particular individual w...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17
Replies: 15
Views: 1511

Re: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17

A reminder for those of you attending the meeting tomorrow: please make a copy of the meeting agenda to bring, and also bring tablets and laptops if you wish. And if you're wondering about the weather because of today's first snowflakes in the Twin Cities, the NWS is forecasting mostly sunny skies a...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 90
Views: 12278

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I can't think of a more important Boglehead topic than the three-fund or a better person to write a book about it than Taylor. Even better, with editing and a chapter by Mel. Congratulations!
by Fallible
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency
Replies: 5
Views: 1112

Re: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/zweig-guard-against-complacency?nopaging=1 If you had to design a recipe for some kind of horror movie about how to get the worst imaginable behavior out of investors, that's what the script would look like. It's cheap to borrow money, observable risk i...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency
Replies: 5
Views: 1112

Re: Jason Zweig: Guard Against Complacency

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/zweig-guard-against-complacency?nopaging=1 Good interview of Jason Zweig. Talks about the book he wrote that came out 10 years ago. Comments that ERs are super low but we may be worrying about basis point ER differences when our behavior gap (the differ...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17
Replies: 15
Views: 1511

Re: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17

Another terrific line-up by MN-BHs next Saturday. Thanks for reminding me to bring my iPad along too. Go green! a2z And tablets and laptops should be especially helpful for quick access to the great variety of topics on the agenda, including access to the Bogleheads' constantly expanding wiki and t...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...
Replies: 31
Views: 3898

Re: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...

Also received the notice and confirmed that I will wait however long it takes. Any way to get a signed copy? :) Attend Bogleheads 2018. They had copies of the new version for us to purchase this year ($10) and Jack was gracious-enough to sign them. And the conference is a great way to get Jack's au...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6813

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

If there's anyone who hasn't been through a Big Nasty, I would urge caution. I imagine it's far nicer to get through a bear market and find you've been too conservative than to come crashing through from the other side. Spot on. Looked at from a distance, a system that almost requires one to suffer...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me convince my folks to leave their advisor
Replies: 11
Views: 1364

Re: Help me convince my parents to leave their advisor

Welcome to the forum. I may have missed it, but I don't see anything from your parents that would indicate how they feel about leaving EJ, or managing their own money, or whether they understand investing well enough to do so. Nor is there indication how they might respond to your advice to make a c...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5673

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here. If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that: 1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term 2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen But just by looking at this very "unscientifically"...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...
Replies: 31
Views: 3898

Re: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...

tomd37 wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:08 am
Just received email update from Amazon yesterday. Estimated delivery date is now October 25th.
Also just got the Amazon email update and mine says estimated delivery date Oct. 27-Oct. 30 with standard shipping.
by Fallible
Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6608

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

I think Larry's article makes an excellent point that often gets overlooked: no one can consistently and accurately predict future market action. Period. Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight. The opportunity cost of missing out on further mar...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6608

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

What does Market timing really mean? Does it mean adjusting your AA slightly or in a big way? What if you are in a TD fund, is that Marketing timing for me to stay to on its internal glide path? Thanks If you are adjusting your allocation based on predicting what the market will do, that is about m...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6608

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

I think the primary benefit of being concerned about a market correction is that it focuses attention on the investor's risk tolerance. If you are so concerned about current market valuations that you are willing to withdraw money from stocks to pare your allocation , or to defer adding stocks to m...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7184

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:42 am
A "decent sized correction" at "some point." Really stepping out on a limb there, Vanguard.
+1.

And the Vanguard connection was the only reason to read this otherwise forgettable article. Moving on...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The theory seems irrelevant. How does one execute?
Replies: 23
Views: 1822

Re: The theory seems irrelevant. How does one execute?

... My concern is that I won't be able to not check the value of my portfolio, and my experience with cryptocurrency tells me that I don't really have the stomach for large drops in value. When prices go up I feel great and think myself a genius. When prices go down it crushes my mental health. At ...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3036

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

Enjoye the articles and thanks for posting. In the early '80s, I was too skittish about the stock market to invest in it, so I invested in the high-interest CDs. I continued learning about mutual funds and finally got into the market in (drum roll...) 1987. Several months later, the crash. My two re...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...
Replies: 31
Views: 3898

Re: Revised Version The Little Book of Common Sense...

I also pre-ordered and received the notice and think that just means it will be better than ever. :-) Actually, I'm just glad it will still arrive in plenty of time for Christmas as one of the two I ordered will be a gift.
by Fallible
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17
Replies: 15
Views: 1511

Minnesota BH Qtrly Meeting 10-28-17

Who : All Minnesota Bogleheads and guests. Meetings are free and open to the public and new members are always welcome. Bring your laptops and tablets if you wish. What : Quarterly MN Boglehead meeting Where : Southdale Library full meeting room, 7001 York Ave. S, Edina. When : Saturday, October 28...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How long for hedonic adaptation to set in?
Replies: 109
Views: 7491

Re: How long for hedonic adaptation to set in?

= I think like most of us here, I'm all for spending money that will truly make us happy. Of course, the flip side of this is the danger of spending money on things that we think will make us happy, but in the long term do not. It occurs to me that for some purchases that are hard to reverse, perhap...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Liability of phone conversations while my client is driving (and I am not in the car)?
Replies: 64
Views: 4029

Re: Liability of phone conversations while my client is driving (and I am not in the car)?

I think one easy solution is to put it directly in my contract that if I happen to call and the client is in the car, or they call me from the car, that they will be instructed to find another time to have the discussion. I'd just as soon not get hired at all if anyone has a problem with that, and ...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Met with a CFP, not too impressed.
Replies: 29
Views: 5451

Re: Met with a CFP, not too impressed.

I take it this was a free consultation? Not particularly defending them, but for a free consultation they are not going to spend countless hours scouring over everything. I hear ya but actually we signed a contract that contains an estimate and a billing rate. Basically all he did was plug our numb...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4371

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

Speaking of the Great Recession, anybody know of a good book that covers what happened at the beginning? Roger lowenstein's The End of Wall Street. Good overview. Nouriel Roubini's book is a more technical overview (but not super tech). Then Alan Blinders book After the Music Stopped. I would read ...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation question for my parents
Replies: 16
Views: 869

Re: Asset allocation question for my parents

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads®_investment_philosophy A start. Read all the Bogleheads "booklist". Then the "Wiki". When you know enough to pick a financial advisor you will have the option of doing it yourself. Agree. The first thing for the OP to do is to learn as much about investing...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too old to invest at 70+ years?
Replies: 32
Views: 2539

Re: Too old to invest at 70+ years?

Have you all gotten together for a family talk about these matters? If not, that is a good place to start so that they understand your concerns and how they are affecting you and your wife. It's really a must place to start since they have not asked for your help and you will need that so you have t...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?
Replies: 45
Views: 4112

Re: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?

The Bogleheads® Philosophy *Develop a workable plan *Invest early and often *Never bear too much or too little risk * Never try to time the market <----------- *Use index funds when possible *Keep costs low *Diversify *Minimize taxes *Keep it simple * Stay the course <-------------- This a standard...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8545

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

Richard Thaler is one of my heroes, together with Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely, and Nassim Taleb. I am occasionally giving presentations on Behavioral Economics, Black Swans, Antifragility, and related topics. It will be my great pleasure to refer to Dick Thaler by his new title. Victoria Speaking o...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6813

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

In reading the responses to this interesting thread I've realized that, as a retired R/E Developer and businessman (employer), my risk tolerance has been from a different perspective than others of different situations or perhaps dependent on the "market" for savings and income. With every economic...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8545

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

At last, the man who had what he called his “first heretical thoughts” about human behavior in grad school and went on to somewhat humorously describe himself as a “professional renegade” in his field, will now become a Nobel laureate. In his book, Misbehaving , Thaler notes that behavioral economic...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6813

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

One key determinant of a sensible asset allocation is "risk tolerance." I contend that the phrase "risk tolerance" means very little when people are initially confronted with the idea, and as a result people create their portfolios, at least initially, with very little to no understanding of what t...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Retirement Class of 1998 (Sheepdog's Experience)
Replies: 45
Views: 4302

Re: Retirement Class of 1998 (Sheepdog's Experience)

To all of you, thank you for the humbling "thank yous" and your comments and questions. In this thread, maybe I did actually accomplish something unplanned beyond telling my story and giving thanks to the Diehards and Bogleheads. I think that is having some of you realize that your retirement can b...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: New job offer

Hello All! I just got a new job offer and I'm going to take it. My question is should I fill out all the paperwork and get it back to the new company first and wait for the green light before I left my boss know or should I just tel my boss that I'm leaving now? I love my boss and don't want to lea...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some Hand-Holding
Replies: 17
Views: 1294

Re: Some Hand-Holding

... Where my anxiety is rising is how to ride out the next situation. I have an asset allocation of 70% equities and 30% bonds--all in mutual funds. This is down from an 80/20 allocation about a year ago. I did the reduction in anticipation of "the stock crisis of 2016." I am torn between wishing I...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior citizens can lose everything [to professional guardians via court rulings]
Replies: 111
Views: 9583

Re: Senior citizens can lose everything [to professional guardians via court rulings]

Thanks for the article. Here is another NYT article from last July on another guardianship case and some excerpts providing perspective: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/business/calls-for-court-reform-as-legal-guardians-abuse-older-adults.html The National Center for State Courts, a nonprofit thi...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 2724

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

It may help for you to have Larry Swedroe's full definitions of ability, need, and willingness to take risk in the three blogs he wrote on the subjects. Here are excerpts from each with links to all following): ... Besides reading the forum, have you read books listed in the forum's wiki under "Get...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 2724

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

It may help for you to have Larry Swedroe's full definitions of ability, need, and willingness to take risk in the three blogs he wrote on the subjects. Here are excerpts from each with links to all following): Ability: "An investor’s ability to take risk is determined by four factors: (1) investmen...