Search found 45 matches

by Fortune Seeker
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 90
Views: 4011

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

I actually had small part of my portfolio in gold initially but replaced it with treasury bonds. Mostly because I felt that right now gold is "expensive", even comparing to other precious metals/commodities, and had doubts about it being a good hedge even in case of some inflation spike. I also felt...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat the market by doing (almost) nothing
Replies: 61
Views: 7194

Re: Beat the market by doing (almost) nothing

I was working for a large tech company with reasonable job security, I figured that my future W2 income was like bond holding. Taking into consideration the extremely low interest rate, the bond equivalent of my future income was actually worth a lot. Even to achieve the typical 70/30 or 60/40 port...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% bonds in TDF
Replies: 26
Views: 1739

Re: 10% bonds in TDF

90% total stock market 10% intermediate term bonds is higher Sharpe ratio! 8-)
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10% bonds in TDF
Replies: 26
Views: 1739

Re: 10% bonds in TDF

I like the idea of TDF. They allow you to completely forget about managing it and just automatically deposit money. You dont need to remember about rebalancing or changing allocation with time, which is nice since you definitely won't remember about it in 50 years. And I'm quite positive that becaus...
by Fortune Seeker
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why yield curve steepens before recession?
Replies: 2
Views: 336

Re: Why yield curve steepens before recession?

I think Aswath Damodaran mentioned this in one of his blog posts.

He said that was usually caused by movement in short term yields which are caused by government's interventions. Short term rates go lower -> steeper yield curve.
by Fortune Seeker
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes: Robinhood & Hertz: The Troubling Saga Of A Bankrupt Stock
Replies: 11
Views: 2127

Re: Forbes: Robinhood & Hertz: The Troubling Saga Of A Bankrupt Stock

Perhaps it's because hedge funds want order flow from people who are day trading various stocks and options based on "news" or social media noise, not investors that systematically contribute monthly into broad index funds and don't sell until they retire. I find it amusing how governments around th...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Worry about low volume of VHVE + VFEA
Replies: 17
Views: 1068

Re: Worry about low volume of VHVE + VFEA

If you are worried about liquidity and your broker giving you bad prices, try distributing versions of these funds:

VEVE - FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF
VDEM - FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF

This share class is much more popular in these 2 funds and should have much better liquidity.
by Fortune Seeker
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best

Fair point about value investing styles, but I was more about making distinction between what Grantham is/was doing and what various value indexes are using for current "value factor" funds, thus "Systematic value". I don't want to narrow it down to "Fama/French value factor" since today's funds do ...
by Fortune Seeker
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best

He says that prior to 2000, these stocks were nevertheless reliably value stocks after doing sophisticated analysis. He says that now metrics like low p/e are not reliable, so sophisticated analysis is very important. I'm not going to object and say that everything more complex than sorting stocks ...
by Fortune Seeker
Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best

I also disagree that systematic value investing is dead. What he's talking about and "systematic value" investing are different things. I feel that Grantham is clearly trying to pick stocks that are priced as "cheap" stocks at the moment but actually are "expensive" stocks if you do a deeper, more s...
by Fortune Seeker
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Irish alternatives to US domiciled ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 973

Re: Irish alternatives to US domiciled ETFs

US investors have income and expenses denominated in US dollars, that's why their situation on domestic/international is different. For rest of us, diversifying internationally costs very little and will make for a more robust investment over very long term. Check out: Vanguard FTSE Developed World ...
by Fortune Seeker
Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delisting of Credit Suisse ETN's (TVIX and others)
Replies: 7
Views: 700

Re: Delisting of Credit Suisse ETN's (TVIX and others)

Back in 2012, they got cold feet and just stopped issuing new shares for a while, which caused TVIX to trade at massive premiums because people still wanted the product.
Ahhh, so that's what caused it's weird outperformance in 2012! I was looking at TVIX a while ago and that period seemed unusual.
by Fortune Seeker
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TVIX/TQQQ combo
Replies: 16
Views: 1134

Re: TVIX/TQQQ combo

You can roughly model TVIX using VIX which has historic data from about 90.
by Fortune Seeker
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TVIX/TQQQ combo
Replies: 16
Views: 1134

Re: TVIX/TQQQ combo

I'm not talking about SARS epidemic. I am talking about situation where NASDAQ 100 would drop sharpy while VIX would only increase moderately instead of skyrocketing to 80.

That's one of weak spots in this strategy - VIX hedges different index.
by Fortune Seeker
Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TVIX/TQQQ combo
Replies: 16
Views: 1134

Re: TVIX/TQQQ combo

How did this strategy perform in 2000-2003? Did you model it?
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 74
Views: 6502

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

Bloomberg has more details about potential bankrupcy causes here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... going-bust
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP
Replies: 6
Views: 414

Re: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP

You have to consider alternatives. If Developed World Market ETF costs 0.12 and this costs 0.24, does having 5% of small cap and 10% of emerging markets included warrant 0.1% increased expense ratio? You are paying almost 1%/year for these 2 slices for convenience!
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 74
Views: 6502

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

This feels like a direct consequence of combination of ignorant investors and lack of actual important information in app. I am quite sure most of those people who buy this stock don't even know if it's in bankrupcy or not and what it means for their stock's value. It's not like you can easily see t...
by Fortune Seeker
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP
Replies: 6
Views: 414

Re: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP

Also if you want low cost developed markets mutual fund, there's one available from Fidelity:

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets/? ... ent-finder
by Fortune Seeker
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP
Replies: 6
Views: 414

Re: ETFs vs non-ETFs in UK SIPP

I'm confused about the question, do you mean what difference there is between ETFs and mutual funds in general? There are articles about that on VG website and Morningstar UK: https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/how-it-works/difference-between-etf-and-traditional-fund https:/...
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK looking for bond fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1492

Re: UK looking for bond fund

You can opt for this fund if you want internationally diversified government bonds but no exposure to Japanese or Italian bonds: GAAA (SAAA for distributing) iShares Global AAA-AA Govt Bond UCITS ETF https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/297892/ Because they (FTSE?) rate Japan as "A", th...
by Fortune Seeker
Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK looking for bond fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1492

Re: UK looking for bond fund

That's a hell of a premium for protection against unexpected inflation. It is, and for a good reason - risks are high for GB pound. Take a look at US TIPS yields - much lower expectations of inflation there (also iirc Inflation-linked Gilts dont have their inflation adjustment taxed, so they are pr...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK looking for bond fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1492

Re: UK looking for bond fund

Also consider inflation-linked Gilts. While UK govt has debt denominated in pounds and is unlikely to default, there are many risks with all the brexit and coronavirus business going on, and you will lose money if all your bonds are in GBP-hedged broad bond funds and pound loses value. Both Vanguard...
by Fortune Seeker
Sun May 24, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investor is bullish?
Replies: 14
Views: 1470

Re: Which investor is bullish?

That's what your bond allocation is for. :)
by Fortune Seeker
Sun May 24, 2020 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions based on Graham's book
Replies: 11
Views: 758

Re: Questions based on Graham's book

1) Graham clearly advocates against buying stocks with > 25 P/E ratio because they are priced higher. Does that mean a stock like amazon's which has a P/E around 120 should not be held but sold? 2) Is there a principle for selling a stock similar to how there is a theory for buying it? 3) How to ap...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat May 23, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2759

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

Well in this case you are expecting to exit out of those 2 positions at some point, right? After you do, come back here and say what you ended up with, it'd be interesting to know.
by Fortune Seeker
Sat May 23, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2759

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

With due respect those 2 companies were solid and I did quite well investing in them in this basis :moneybag 8-) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=258102 If you've invested in them in 2018 and outperformed S&P500 for 2 years that's great for you and congratulations! EDIT: removed...
by Fortune Seeker
Wed May 20, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3678

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I don't see how you can compare unleveraged stock index fund to what most people do with buy-to-let mortgages. 20% down mortgage is high leverage, of course it's risk profile is going to be completely dfferent. It is probably more correct to compare risk of unleveraged stock market index fund to a p...
by Fortune Seeker
Wed May 13, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA offering buyouts to 75% of US employees
Replies: 8
Views: 1258

Re: TIAA offering buyouts to 75% of US employees

I took a look at it via Google Cache. Super short summary: [TIAA Bank] is offering voluntary separation packages to 75% of its 18000 U.S. employees. not saying how many jobs it expects to cut. company will make final decisions by Aug. 3. company is "exploring a variety of measures to reduce costs wh...
by Fortune Seeker
Tue May 05, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Risk-Tolerance Question
Replies: 50
Views: 2575

Re: A Risk-Tolerance Question

New, but not young investor (started nov 2017) here. New in a sense that this is when I started investing in stocks/bonds with my spare money (I was too wary of trusting anything riskier than savings account. In case I would've amassed too much money there, I would've spent it on paying off a mortga...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat May 02, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107779

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

the OP says they are changing their AA (not a totally unusual event for an investor) and 23 pages later it is still being discussed. It's not that, it's a lot more. For me what's remarkable is how his initial call (that market was acting irrationally by ignoring CV) and timing were amazingly on poi...
by Fortune Seeker
Sat May 02, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder meeting]
Replies: 49
Views: 3819

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Even the Guru of "Value Investors" appears to be having problems with his style of "Value Factor" in recent years. But straight out "value investing" was never his style, no? He bought "good" companies that were selling at discount, and not simply distressed companies that were sold cheap. If he co...
by Fortune Seeker
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2980

Re: Vanguard reviews “commodities futures” for inclusion in Target Date Retirement Funds

It could've been worse. Their UK target date funds, just like in US, also have 20% home country (UK) tilt and have bond portion hedged to home country currency (GBP). But unlike US funds, UK funds got the short end of the stick: UK equities underperformed world indexes this decade, and large drops i...
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 43
Views: 4549

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

No no, that's not what I meant. My point was not that US government is artificially calculating lower than "true" CPI right now/in past, but that in times of crysis, runaway inflation and quickly rising rates, they may be tempted to start doing this, just like Argentina did. That's what I feel is a ...
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 43
Views: 4549

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

All portfolio insurance I tried to model ends up too expensive. Derisking by adding some bonds/gold/cash riding it out seems the only real way to protect yourself in terms of portfolio assets. I checked out https://obliviousinvestor.com/review-worry-free-investing-by-zvi-bodie/ (I haven't read his b...
by Fortune Seeker
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 62
Views: 4566

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Gradual decline of malls probably isn't a surprise to anyone at the market.

Shouldn't this be priced in?
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Low trading ETF volume
Replies: 2
Views: 374

Re: Low trading ETF volume

Liquidity should be fine since this fund has distributing version of it with much better liquidity (VDNR).

Beware of large spreads / slow fills if you go with it.

Personally I wouldn't go with this fund since it's too similar to S&P500 funds.
by Fortune Seeker
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with switch from degiro to Interactive brokers
Replies: 3
Views: 262

Re: Help with switch from degiro to Interactive brokers

100X difference may be if the price is shown in "GBX" (GBX is 100 times GBP price). Some brokers artificially convert GBX prices to GBP. London Stock Exchange lists this version of above ETF in GBX, for example: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/ETFs/company-summary/IE0...
by Fortune Seeker
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6354

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

I'm surprised to see Quality not outperforming last month. I expected something like that to be the environment where it shines. Guess not. Min vol fund from iShares (USMV) did quite well, it outperformed SP500 during february and beginning of march when there was most uncertainty. I checked and it ...
by Fortune Seeker
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6233

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

Also, my experience, as foreigner who who experienced hyperinflation and confiscative money reforms several times, is that the government is not your friend. You may have benefitted from their actions now, but they will not hesitate to throw you under a bus the moment they think they can get some ad...
by Fortune Seeker
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6233

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

But how can you rely on them bailing out stock market next time when you need it and not when it's convenient for them?

This is same as expecting to receive 600/month next time there is a spike in unemployment. Is that now guaranteed? If no, why stock market?
by Fortune Seeker
Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alibaba & Tencent
Replies: 32
Views: 1993

Re: Alibaba & Tencent

The way to get life changingly filthy rich is to pick a few good growth companies who you have strong conviction in for a long time. It would be like picking amazon and netflix 10 years ago. It is almost impossible to guess which companies will be market leaders. I recall very well going into "Appl...
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA, small value, large value performance
Replies: 17
Views: 1512

Re: DFA, small value, large value performance

It's probably still not worthless, just takes a lot of time to realise itself. This is S&P 500 divided by Russell 2000 index, which roughly shows small cap performance relative to large: https://imgur.com/a/rriRHem It was outperforming until about 2014. No guarantees this will repeat any time soon, ...
by Fortune Seeker
Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing too early and tail risks
Replies: 2
Views: 255

Rebalancing too early and tail risks

I was happily increasing my stock allocation as stocks fell because of COVID-19 pandemic last month and "buying the dip", but now I'm having second thoughts. This is my 3rd year of investing and I thought that after 20% market downturn in dec 2018 I had a general idea of my risk tolerance and more o...