Search found 82 matches

by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

chillpenguin wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:12 pm Uncorrelated, if you are reading this, I just want you to know I have learned a ton by reading your posts. :sharebeer
1+

I have learned so much from Uncorrelated.
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

On a more serious note, you do realize this thread isn't actually that serious right? Most people using these portfolios are putting 1-5% of their money on it. They're having fun with it. Backtesting and overfitting to see what number of days is best for inverse volatility. Or what moving averages ...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

A stop loss doesn't guarantee execution at a particular price. A stop loss is an act of market timing: why would you want to sell when the market is down? Does a down market predict future returns? Why 20%? I was using a 20% loss of the peak, is that an incorrect way to determine when the stop loss...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

been following this thread, I am wondering , is it possible for the underlying asset to go down 33% in a day ? This is what I would be afraid of, but I think it is impossible (theoretically?) from the circuit breakers etc. And theoretically if it does happen, I think money would be last of our worr...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

been following this thread, I am wondering , is it possible for the underlying asset to go down 33% in a day ? This is what I would be afraid of, but I think it is impossible (theoretically?) from the circuit breakers etc. And theoretically if it does happen, I think money would be last of our worr...
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Do these statements include AAA with minimum variance? I have not tested that specific strategy because the theoretical basis behind it is laughable. I have always appreciated your posts. Can you educate me on your opinions here? If you're limited to 10 years of data, then honestly the best idea is...
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Actually, someone already wrote about the VIX strategy I mentioned above: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/04/ ... k-in-2020/ I'd still like to hear feedback though. It's strategy #2 in that link. MODEL RESULTS 10 years is not nearly enough data to draw conclusions, backtests are not suited for ...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Idk, I couldn’t get myself to stick with MV, couldn’t of been further off. Absolutely loaded on TMF just in time for the drop. Really wish I started with the standard AA. To answer your question, I think something like an 8% fluctuation from the monthly signal warrants an adjustment. I wouldn’t thi...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229698

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

dcabler wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:50 am ....clipped

Simba's spreadsheet, available here on BH, can do this.

Cheers
Where is that located?
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229698

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I thought this was an interesting chart from this Paul Merriman presentation. Value tilted US portfolio vs. S&P500. https://i.imgur.com/Isjr4z7.png The rest of the video covers performance of several common portfolio's, how important it is to be patient, and some other points. https://www.youtube.c...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229698

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I thought this was an interesting chart from this Paul Merriman presentation. Value tilted US portfolio vs. S&P500. https://i.imgur.com/Isjr4z7.png The rest of the video covers performance of several common portfolio's, how important it is to be patient, and some other points. https://www.youtube.c...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It seems like minimum variance with 21 day look back is nearly the same as inverse volatility for this portfolio (both in returns, SD, max drawdown, rolling returns, sharpe). Any reason to use one over the other? It appears using AAA with MV on UPRO/TMF is missing part of the whole process novel to ...
by RovenSkyfall
Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229698

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Are we able to commence the rejoicing?
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229698

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure
Replies: 51
Views: 7169

Re: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure

Start date: 9/4/2020
Approach: Fixed allocation - 55/45 UPRO/TMF (May transition to Q1mo MV)
Rebalancing frequency: Quarterly
Return (total / YTD): -3.3%/-3.3%
Initial contribution: $9k (4% of invested assets)
Additional contributions: None
Portfolio location: Fidelity Roth
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thank you, AnilG. I was thinking of the same as wackerdr. Some of the calcualations are too tedious for a lazyphile like me. :D. I just dont want to mess this up. Thanks for the paper. If you or someone can do a dummies version of this, that would be greatly appreciated. People can correct me if I ...
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Is anyone dollar cost averaging into this strategy? I run this in both Roth and taxable and have been adding bi-weekly to the taxable portion and will probably add more Roth next year too. Interested to know if anyone has determined if that would be detrimental (ie essentially rebalancing away from...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Spot On JarJarM. The rebalancing ideally occurs monthly in a tax-advantaged account. With monthly rebalancing, we are adjusting to "current" conditions. With the spreadsheets that I and others have put out there - you can see daily changes in the recommended asset allocation. I would argue that one...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I put that link up because others wanted 6 months of volatility. I don’t agree with 6 months of volatility or correlation coefficient usage for AAA. The nature of AAA is to rebalance every month so keeping 21 days is my recommendation. Otherwise set the trading frequency to 6 months too. Thank you ...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'll take a look at it tonight. Though I think 100 days or 126 days may not make much of a difference and any positive or negative will be more due to overfitting of past performance data. However, one thing I would say though is that there's real evidence (either thru backtest or academic study) t...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Perfect Uncertainty wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:13 am

I use QLD rather than TQQQ or UPRO link
It looks like if you use minimum variance you might do a little bit better according to the PV link you sent.
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

You checked the results from the back tests? Yes, I did - to do a fairer comparison to HFEA or TV you need to remove TQQQ from the backtest or add it to HFEA's and TV's backtest - TQQQ makes any 10 year backtest look impressive. As far as I tell, an AA model with UPRO & TMF significantly underperfo...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

[...] My sheet indeed only goes up to 100 days. But also, it uses this range (that you can choose) for both correlation and volatility. From what I understand now, I should adjust it so that the correlation and volatility ranges can be defined separately. Eg. You could set the correlation range to ...
by RovenSkyfall
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Here is the original AAA strategy proposed by smartly based on the white paper: Strategy rules tested: - At the close on the last trading day of the month, calculate the 6-month (126-day) return for each of the following 10 asset classes: US equities (represented by SPY), European equities (EZU), J...
by RovenSkyfall
Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thanks a lot,how do I upload them on PV ? Is it required the Pro-version ? It's being done. I did this as a pet project during the shelter at home fun. https://i.postimg.cc/fRKWyXz2/Upro-TMF-sim.png UPRO Baseline 55/45 Portfolio VolatilityPortfolio MomentumPortfolio AdaptiveAssetAllocation cagr 10....
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

kerstverlichting wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:45 am
Image
Thank you so much for doing this, it is truly amazing. One quick question: Does the AAA Minimum variance include 6 months of momentum, or just MV in the AA?
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Btw, can anyone provide a quick explanation of the difference between minimum variance and inverse volatility? Why use one over the other? I found this paper helpful. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2328254 That explains minimum variance but I didn't see much or anything about i...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Mickelous wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:36 pm Anyone have a graph for how well regular HFEA does in backtesting vs inverse volatility / minimum variance? Or maybe a Monte Carlo sim with those would even be better.
There is a graph on the page before this one with the outcomes of the different AA's
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I personally think that including 6 months of volatility to set a portfolio today isn't the best route. We are rebalancing monthly with AAA so I prefer the volatility calculation to be shorter in duration. I could be totally off here, but my impression was that the 6 mo historical data was actually...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

kerstverlichting wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:24 am
Btw, can anyone provide a quick explanation of the difference between minimum variance and inverse volatility? Why use one over the other?
I found this paper helpful. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2328254
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How does the Adaptive Asset Allocation differ from the volatility?
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a Roth IRA with rebalancing. (Hegdefundie adventure)
Replies: 23
Views: 1355

Re: Looking for a Roth IRA with rebalancing. (Hegdefundie adventure)

AnilG wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:18 am I like to automate order placement as well as move this adventure to taxable account. I just opened an account at Alpaca as they have API.
Why are you moving to taxable? Wont the re-balancing hurt with capital gains?
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a Roth IRA with rebalancing. (Hegdefundie adventure)
Replies: 23
Views: 1355

Re: Looking for a Roth IRA with rebalancing. (Hegdefundie adventure)

Just FYI, I was just looking at this and M1 only has SIPC insurance up to $500,000 so if you end up going over that you may incur some risk. It seems like the bigger firms have much higher cutoffs. This makes me a little nervous that M1 might not be prime time yet for bigger accounts and hence I wen...
by RovenSkyfall
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

M1 seems to only have SIPC insurance up to $500K. Is anyone doing this through a Roth IRA with Fidelity? If so, are there any fees for housing it under Fidelity? Their Agreement and Disclosures are surprisingly unclear about fees. Also, is the HFEA available? I opened a Vanguard Roth IRA to invest i...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6596
Views: 623646

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I hope everyone will forgive me for not reading through all of the post over the couple of different threads, but I have some quick nuts and bolts questions to ask (which hopefully havent already been addressed). 1) Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go? 2) I get an error message with Vanguard saying I cant buy ...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue May 05, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman vs JL Collins portfolio head-to-head
Replies: 38
Views: 4008

Re: Paul Merriman vs JL Collins portfolio head-to-head

White Coat Investor wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:50 pm
Not all that different from my portfolio except I'm 60/20/20 stocks/bonds/real estate. But I have a moderate SV tilt.
Nice and then you followed up with a nice in-depth post! Thank you!!!
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small ... -strategy/
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing by sell/buy or via buying underperforming asset
Replies: 8
Views: 358

Re: Rebalancing by sell/buy or via buying underperforming asset

Re-balancing using sell/buy is over within a couple of days, once the trade(s) settle. Use this method in 401k accounts. Depending on your 401k fund choices, you may be able to perform all re-balancing inside tax-deferred accounts. Instant results with no tax consequences. So tax-deferred accounts ...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing by sell/buy or via buying underperforming asset
Replies: 8
Views: 358

Rebalancing by sell/buy or via buying underperforming asset

Simple question: Besides the capital gain taxes of selling something that is up to buy what is under-performing, what is the difference between re-balancing by selling your well performing asset and buying your under-performing asset to re-balance and just investing more money into the under-perform...
by RovenSkyfall
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Many Bogleheads hate gold and long-term bonds because they are sure--absolutely sure--stocks will perform better than gold and LTTs over the next 20 or 30 years. This is based on the very long-term historical performance of stocks vs. bonds vs. gold as well as their unconscious biases. The reality ...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Early Retirement Now's intro to SWR. I know he has done some stuff about dynamic "bond tents" and such but if you are looking for a single set and forget allocation, bonds in general seem to have reduced success rates in the past. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Actually in the SWR research bonds seems to pretty consistently reduce success rates, all things being equal, and that is coming off a long term bull market in bonds where bonds have had positive return on top of their coupon due to falling rates. The more bonds you hold, you need to lower your wit...
by RovenSkyfall
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Check out this one instead. QQQ 30% (technolgy) VYM 30% (large value) VB 20% (small cap) 20% TLT (long bonds) It's very aggressive but that is what you need fore FIRE I think. Yeah that looks pretty good too. Thank you for sharing, more volatile but seems like a good return thus far. It seems like ...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Weaknesses? One your basing things on past performance. Two you have 20% in gold. Need I list more? Thanks for the response. What would you suggest as a better predictor of future performance? Also, can you elaborate on your concerns with gold? Thanks. Because a gold bar doesn’t throw gold coins as...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

TLDR: I think I found an ideal FI(RE) portfolio for all times of accumulation and retirement -- show me where I am wrong No, you havent. Any FI, or FIRE, or ER portfolio needs to be predicated on income. Income to cover your expenses. The mere idea of any withdrawal rate to be successful is just to...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

jibantik wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:11 am Weaknesses? One your basing things on past performance. Two you have 20% in gold. Need I list more?
Thanks for the response. What would you suggest as a better predictor of future performance? Also, can you elaborate on your concerns with gold? Thanks.
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

Everything, Mega caps have pulled the weight of the gains for the last decade. Gold really??? Long term treasuries at 1.xx% really? Switch treasuries for total bond Switch gold for QQQ I almost feel like OP is trolling OP, do you see how much people here despise gold and long-term treasuries? These...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

My Proposed FIRE Portfio: 50% SCV - IJS 30% Long Term Treasuries - TLT 20% Gold - IAU I would strongly advise against a portfolio that does not include the economic powerhouses of the world economy: US large/megacaps. While SCV is the current fad; no one knows if it will perform better or worse in ...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

TLDR: I think I found an ideal FI(RE) portfolio for all times of accumulation and retirement -- show me where I am wrong No, you havent. Any FI, or FIRE, or ER portfolio needs to be predicated on income. Income to cover your expenses. The mere idea of any withdrawal rate to be successful is just to...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

I consider myself as an expert in old-school FIRE. If I were the OP with a true interest in FIRE I'd allocate like this: X% VTI + Y% BND. X% = 60-80%. The most importanthing thingbyou can do if you REALLY want sucess in FIRE is to be FRUGAL. If you can live on an AWR < 3% you are golden. Thank you ...
by RovenSkyfall
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 4420

Re: Help me find the weakness in this FIRE Portfolio

rovenskyfall, It appears you have done a lot of homework/research in coming up with this portfolio, but do you really have much experience investing? You are 34? and looking at FIRE. Your portfolio may outperform a Boglehead type of portfolio, but you will get extended periods of underperformance f...