Search found 85 matches

by randyharris
Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 314
Views: 26357

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I see that your permanent portfolio is 1.75x leveraged. How can you get that kinda leverage at M1? If I remember correctly, M1 only allows 35% margin, so effectively limiting to a 1.35x leverage. In M1 I don’t use Margin I use SSO 12%, QLD 13%, UBT 25%, UST 25%, and UGL 25%. Net position is 200% in...
by randyharris
Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 314
Views: 26357

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I also looked at NTSX, opted for a very different solution, which nonetheless has done well so far and backtests really well. If you take occambogle's suggested portfolio's and compare to what I did, they are very similar. But if you go back further, I can take mine back to 2006, there has been a ra...
by randyharris
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I read that thread and am sort of surprised that set him off so much. I mean, based on him saying it was the last straw seems to suggest there were other issues (which I'm unaware of) but just that thread in and of itself didn't seem to be that bad. There was a disagreement but from what I remember...
by randyharris
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi thanks for the reply. I did make a mistake for the long term comparison. But for the period of Jan 2019 - Jun 2020, CAGR is 68.26% for the 55UPRO-45TMF strategy while the adaptive model has 44.48%. What do you think about this difference? Portfolio CAGR Stdev Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio 55UPRO 45...
by randyharris
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

For your reading pleasure: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-3x-funds-have-defied-the-experts-so-far-2020-06-15?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo An investor writes: “Dollar cost averaging into 50% UPRO and 50% TMF has proved to return an annual growth rate of 33%. Who is dumb enough to waste their time ...
by randyharris
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

NTSXsim vs QMJsim As stated, these are simulated results so take with a grain of salt when setting your future expectations. Nice, thanks for that... I was just curious. It does seem rather impressive... It seems to have diverged significantly from S&P500 after 2000, but didn't do the same, so much...
by randyharris
Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

With how the market has behaved lately, I understand all the interest in including VIX or some volatility vehicle in the strategy. I would advise keeping it separate from this type of strategy and use a separate hedge for your portfolio overall. When looking at a strategy like this, the volatility c...
by randyharris
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Interesting. I can't work out how to overlay two ETFs on stockcharts, but I was wondering how much of the improvement over VTI is down to leverage itself, rather than the factors. Comparing to NTSX it has done a bit better although obviously hard to say in these early days. Are you able to compare ...
by randyharris
Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Looks like a price-chart. You shouldn't ignore dividends for the SP500. Do the other two have dividends? Not much difference, of course, since there has only been one quarter of dividend payments in that time period, but over a longer period it will make a difference. VTIAX (Vanguard 500 Index Admi...
by randyharris
Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Update for QMJ and ESNG, I'm taken positions in both, like how they've done so far. https://i.ibb.co/cQ62YWS/Chart-20200610-171958.png I am not interested in ESNG, but I was curious about its holdings. The short positions were interesting: Top 5 Short Holdings % Netflix -3.96 Monster Beverage -3.11...
by randyharris
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Update for QMJ and ESNG, I'm taken positions in both, like how they've done so far.

Image
by randyharris
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble Proofing the Robbins/Dalio All Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1802

Re: Bond Bubble Proofing the Robbins/Dalio All Seasons Portfolio

I was also looking at an All Weather variant but ended up putting that allocation to what I dubbed ‘Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio +’ At the end of the day, I came to appreciate the setup of the base idea for the strategy for this core holding, I simply took it as is but swapped out the 25% stock ...
by randyharris
Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

:sharebeer hi Hi All, Long time lurker here and this is my first post. Many thanks to HedgeFundie to start this thread, posting his real and trackable investment, and providing with frequent updates. Many thanks to all the contributors supporting and opposing this investment approach. I have learnt...
by randyharris
Wed May 27, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 6128

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

nice work op. check this article out. https://sentimentrader.com/blog/moving-averages/ My ignorant thoughts on that article; For the last 25 years or so of stocks, his optimal strategy is worse than B&H, and the basic strategies are dramatically worse. The optimal strategy, each case, opened up a h...
by randyharris
Wed May 27, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 6128

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

nice work op. check this article out. https://sentimentrader.com/blog/moving-averages/ My ignorant thoughts on that article; For the last 25 years or so of stocks, his optimal strategy is worse than B&H, and the basic strategies are dramatically worse. The optimal strategy, each case, opened up a h...
by randyharris
Tue May 26, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 6128

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

See if it holds the 200 through month end.
by randyharris
Sat May 16, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Really good points in the last couple of posts about long term treasuries. After reading about this strategies and variations the takeaway I have is that mixing long term treasuries with stocks has been the superior asset allocation since the 80's. Going forward there is no evidence this should cha...
by randyharris
Thu May 14, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

QMJ, and it's sister ESG driven ESNG have been moving well. I'm going to start allocating to them equally for June, 1/12th each over the next 12 months (unless we get a monster dump and I'll speed up the allocation if that happens.) https://i.ibb.co/hy8wQ4Q/Screen-Shot-2020-05-14-at-2-11-11-PM.png L...
by randyharris
Wed May 13, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 362
Views: 31785

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

For those with M1 you can build your own PSLDX super easy, here are two variants that are similar. Of course you can do this with any brokerage account, the M1 pie’s just make it easier. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020...
by randyharris
Wed May 13, 2020 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4419

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

While I totally buy into indexing, and generally buy into market weighting, what is the positive / theoretical reason why market weighting is the best choice, in terms of risk adjusted equity returns (let's stick with domestic for this argument) I understand the counter positive arguments - why not...
by randyharris
Wed May 13, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?
Replies: 160
Views: 7914

Re: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?

Should home equity be included in your Net Worth? Also, how would you calculate it - the amount of principal paid down from your original loan, the amount owed vs. estimated value of house, the amount owed vs. estimated value of house net selling expenses....? If you’re looking to track your total ...
by randyharris
Wed May 13, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 362
Views: 31785

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

For those with M1 you can build your own PSLDX super easy, here are two variants that are similar. Of course you can do this with any brokerage account, the M1 pie’s just make it easier. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&...
by randyharris
Tue May 12, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

GiveTendies (regular at WSB?), If I understand you correctly, your point seems to be simply that bonds are now very expensive. Do you have a suggestion for an alternative then? The name is just a joke but yes I enjoy watching the gamblers of WSB :) Unfortunately, I don't have a great alternative. I...
by randyharris
Tue May 12, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 362
Views: 31785

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Thanks everyone for this discussion! I am interested in getting into PSLDX as my core U.S. holding but am trying to figure out whether it is worth doing so 100% in a taxable account or if I'm better off simulating it in the ways previously discussed. My brokerage (Schwab) has a minimum $100K initia...
by randyharris
Tue May 12, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

KSActuary wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:29 pm
QQQ has crushed every other major index except the S&P 500 since 2011 which it has beat handily. Some exposure to it would be reasonable.
With some of the big tech companies making up around 20% of the S&P, you do have exposure in a broad sense.
by randyharris
Tue May 12, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 362
Views: 31785

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Thanks everyone for this discussion! I am interested in getting into PSLDX as my core U.S. holding but am trying to figure out whether it is worth doing so 100% in a taxable account or if I'm better off simulating it in the ways previously discussed. My brokerage (Schwab) has a minimum $100K initia...
by randyharris
Fri May 08, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.
Replies: 33
Views: 2413

Re: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.

Backtests are great, but have you ever actually read anything from Harry Browne? Start here, with particular attention to Rule #7. https://thetaoofwealth.wordpress.com/2013/02/17/harry-brownes-17-golden-rules-of-financial-safety/ P.S. Just kidding on the backtests - they are useless! I find your at...
by randyharris
Fri May 08, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.
Replies: 33
Views: 2413

Re: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.

The whole idea behind PP is that you are keeping your money safe. Does leveraging it up keep it safe? Doesn't look to me to be particularly to me unsafe compared to the S&P and a Boglehead three fund strategy, at least not from 1997 forward. PV Link: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-por...
by randyharris
Wed May 06, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Interesting idea, but it seems all of these long/short funds that are actually live have fallen on their face. Why not just go with a tilt toward profitability like Avantis does rather than this long/short approach which will be more expensive. Or just use SPHQ which is just the Quality Index for ....
by randyharris
Wed May 06, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

That would be remarkable out performance, more so than most other long-short funds. Any thoughts on whether this is just sample size noise, or is there something fundamental in their approach that is making a difference? You guys realize that they DERIVED their system around past data, right? Of co...
by randyharris
Wed May 06, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

What a terrific thread! I hope it’s ok to dredge this up from the past. Recently I became aware of Direxion’s QMJ long short fund and it highly intrigued me as a diversifying portion of the portfolio. It’s so new, I wish there was more history with it, but it has done well in the tumultuous two mon...
by randyharris
Tue May 05, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

Wow.. simulated data looks great.... Oh wait, you said "simulated", so not real? Hmm... I'll pass... The REAL data shows this fund has done pretty terrible since inception. But it made AQR a ton of money in fees. No thanks. Homer, not sure what you mean, since trading in early February it has outpe...
by randyharris
Tue May 05, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.
Replies: 33
Views: 2413

Re: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.

What do you think about this idea: Build the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio (25% TSM, 25% gold, 25% long term Treasuries, 25% cash) at M1 Finance for its easy rebalancing and cheap leverage. But leave out the cash portion. Hold it in a rewards checking account that yields 1.5% instead. That's a n...
by randyharris
Tue May 05, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

Wow.. simulated data looks great.... Oh wait, you said "simulated", so not real? Hmm... I'll pass... The REAL data shows this fund has done pretty terrible since inception. But it made AQR a ton of money in fees. No thanks. Homer, not sure what you mean, since trading in early February it has outpe...
by randyharris
Tue May 05, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.
Replies: 33
Views: 2413

Re: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.

Portolio's like Harry Browne's get dismissed by a lot of people, it's only when you view it over a time period that wasn't so hot (not the 2010 to current time frame) does one start to realize that it is a great long term strategy. Certainly it'll look like a dog in the go-go years though, but shine...
by randyharris
Tue May 05, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 6128

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

See how it works with a weighted return, 25% of the one month return, 25% of the three month return, and 50% of the 6 month return. (An alternate to the 2xx SMA)
by randyharris
Mon May 04, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 42
Views: 1664

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

What a terrific thread! I hope it’s ok to dredge this up from the past. Recently I became aware of Direxion’s QMJ long short fund and it highly intrigued me as a diversifying portion of the portfolio. It’s so new, I wish there was more history with it, but it has done well in the tumultuous two mon...
by randyharris
Mon May 04, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.
Replies: 33
Views: 2413

Re: Build Browne Permanent Portfolio at M1; leverage it and hold the cash in a reward checking account.

What do you think about this idea: Build the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio (25% TSM, 25% gold, 25% long term Treasuries, 25% cash) at M1 Finance for its easy rebalancing and cheap leverage. But leave out the cash portion. Hold it in a rewards checking account that yields 1.5% instead. That's a n...
by randyharris
Sun May 03, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 68
Views: 10054

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Calling "commodities" diversifiers just cause they are different to me is laughable. One can always buy more stuff and hope the stuff has greater value in the future. Pokemon cards, baseball cards, stamps, and autographed memorabilia, heck how about an antique record player just in case! https://ww...
by randyharris
Sun May 03, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Here's my strategy results through May MTD. https://i.ibb.co/q5mDvR1/Screen-Shot-2020-05-02-at-6-34-52-PM.jpg What is your system ? Its’s called, The Russell https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&coreSatellite=false&timingModel=6&startYear=1985&endYear=2020&initialAmount=...
by randyharris
Sat May 02, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Here's my strategy results through May MTD.

Image
by randyharris
Sat May 02, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 68
Views: 10054

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

He was saying to not hold corporate bonds, all weather holds treasury bonds. That's incorrect. The article says: "Ray Dalio, who leads Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, said investors would be "crazy" to hold government bonds in the current environment where central banks...
by randyharris
Sat May 02, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 68
Views: 10054

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Since it is 55% bonds, and Ray Dalio said on 4/15/2020 that "This period, like the 1930-45 period, is a period in which I think you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds," I infer that Ray Dalio believes that this period is a period in which you'd be pretty crazy to hold this portfolio. If Ray Dalio thin...
by randyharris
Sat May 02, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5390
Views: 484282

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I’ve been doing 55/45 for about 6 months. In reading some of the recent posts on here, would love to do adaptive allocation once per month. Is there a spreadsheet or something to easily calculate this? Or does it require a bunch of manual steps via portfolio viz? Excel, here’s the meat and potatoes...
by randyharris
Fri May 01, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I thought Dual Momentum made sense. Got burned between December 2018 and April 2019 with it - it gave up lots of ground to the market. Looks like it's doing the same right now. I think we're just too drunk right now for this sort of thing to be a good idea. Momentum works off sentiment, and in norm...
by randyharris
Fri May 01, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I use 15 lookbacks, 5 each of momentum, moving average, moving average crossover, it ends up being a % of how bullish or bearish the market is. I’d be interested to see how backtested results of that. My strategy has data back to 1996 that I have in a spreadsheet, 2003 on PV: https://www.portfoliov...
by randyharris
Fri May 01, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I use 15 lookbacks, 5 each of momentum, moving average, moving average crossover, it ends up being a % of how bullish or bearish the market is. I’d be interested to see how backtested results of that. My strategy has data back to 1996 that I have in a spreadsheet, 2003 on PV: https://www.portfoliov...
by randyharris
Fri May 01, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56454

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Unless I'm mistaken, DM is back into US stocks. End of month 30th April, S&P 500 positive & 0.1% advantage over t bills. But instead if we use 253 trading days rather than 252, the S&P 500 is down 0.1% vs the risk free rate. DM went into bonds on 4/1 (SPY and VEU were way below BIL at the end of Ma...