Search found 364 matches

by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wait what did reinvesting dividends really increase my wealth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2793

Re: Wait what did reinvesting dividends really increase my wealth?

it's important to cover/replace the draw with distributions in retirement investing, for the exact reason you witnessed in your own portfolio i'll be drawing 2% from wellesley when i retire so the typical 3% in income wellesley provides should do the job, if there are cap gain distributions too eve...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wait what did reinvesting dividends really increase my wealth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2793

Re: Wait what did reinvesting dividends really increase my wealth?

I know the case made by Larry Swedroe and others that dividends alone don’t actually create wealth, as stock prices go down by the amount of the dividends paid out. But, here is an interesting case: I’m retired and have an admittedly quirky withdrawal system of selling shares in my IRA funds (Vangu...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 17483

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

i wouldn't go beyond 65/35 because of the drop off in efficiency with a moderate growth portfolio you give some consideration to risk, you shouldn't be overburdening the portfolio anyway...i want to make a lot of money is not an investment plan reinvestment of capital and income distributions and va...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25/75 portfolio after 25-30x expenses reached?
Replies: 23
Views: 2777

Re: 25/75 portfolio after 25-30x expenses reached?

Maybe the "why keep playing when you've won the game" has been played out on this forum, but for those of you with 25-30x residual living expenses (after Social Security income) now saved up--are you thinking of cutting back on equity exposure? Even to 25/75 or 0/100 permanently for your "won the g...
by KEotSK66
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 17483

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

i'm 66 and because of recent events i could retire anytime between now and 72 my roth and rollover iras are 100% wellesley income (35/65), when i retire my 401k will be rolled over to wellesley too i agree with some here that "the range" is approximately between 35/65 and 65/35, based on efficiency ...
by KEotSK66
Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

i'm not selling, i thought the irony was obvious, coming from me

we're all supposed to dump our portfolios and invest 100% in TSM going forward, it's the only salvation
by KEotSK66
Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Rather than "Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible", this thread should be titled "Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund has been great". It certainly has been a perfectly acceptable choice for conservative investors who don't want to deal with asset allocations, and investors who tend to make ...
by KEotSK66
Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Moreover, the historical evidence supports this theory—stocks with the same exposure to common factors (such as size, value, momentum and profitability/quality ) have the same returns whether they pay a dividend or not . Yet many investors ignore this information and express a preference for divide...
by KEotSK66
Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

= the yield is important to me because it tells me how well near-term purchases or reinvestment of distributions are covering my planned draw right now i'm planning on a 2% draw so anything in excess of 2% would go into growing the portfolio This is a mistake. You want to compare the return, which ...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Not so fast. When you're accumulating or holding steady, there isn't a difference, but during withdrawal, I'm not so clear. There the whole sequence of returns risk that comes into play. Still no difference: the sustainable withdrawal rate is still entirely a function of the mean total return and t...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

= the yield is important to me because it tells me how well near-term purchases or reinvestment of distributions are covering my planned draw right now i'm planning on a 2% draw so anything in excess of 2% would go into growing the portfolio This is a mistake. You want to compare the return, which ...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

I have enough cash. Maybe too much. Cash would get hurt by the tail risk of hyperinflation (which stocks are a good basket for) and by the risk of negative interest rates (which bond duration is good for). So, Wellesley seems a nice balance between handling these two risks, maybe. I've been thinkin...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

finally looked at my 6/30/2020 statements for wellesley (vwiax) estimated yield is currently 2.97% I've never seen an estimated yield on a statement - maybe you have a different kind of account. i get quarterly paper statements from voyager services for my 2 ira brokerage accounts each statement is...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

finally looked at my 6/30/2020 statements for wellesley (vwiax)

estimated yield is currently 2.97%
by KEotSK66
Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?
Replies: 42
Views: 2619

Re: 2% Real Returns, 2% inflation reasonable for estimating?

i use what i'll call a forward-looking approach (floabw) by that i mean i know what nominal TR i need to replace my real draw and grow my portfolio with inflation. since i invest in risky assets, ie SD, that TR will need to be annualized over short periods iow if i take my draw at the beginning of t...
by KEotSK66
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Re: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley

kiss, just xfr from the balanced index into wellesley Thought about doing that! I had it as one of my options but I still lean towards indexing overall. Plan A was to just reduce Balanced and transfer some to Wellesley. Plan B was to just go all-in with Wellesley. Plan C was to split Balanced into ...
by KEotSK66
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in with Wellesley
Replies: 57
Views: 5002

Re: All in with Wellesley

couple additions: 1. If Vanguard PAS is "only" recommending index funds (I wasn't aware of that), that doesn't make it a bad thing. In fact, it could be argued since they are acting as fiduciaries, then shouldn't they only recommend index funds? I mean, if they recommend active funds and they under...
by KEotSK66
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Re: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley

kiss, just xfr from the balanced index into wellesley Thought about doing that! I had it as one of my options but I still lean towards indexing overall. Plan A was to just reduce Balanced and transfer some to Wellesley. Plan B was to just go all-in with Wellesley. Plan C was to split Balanced into ...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Re: Assistance with AA Adjustment-Wellesley

kiss, just xfr from the balanced index into wellesley
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

i don't care about performance relative to the benchmark or to the market if my fund is satisfying my needs why would i even be looking to see if "i could be doing better" You may be the only Boglehead who feels that way. However, a lot of people I knew felt that way in the '80s and 90s. When the m...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in with Wellesley
Replies: 57
Views: 5002

Re: All in with Wellesley

I'm 66 and retired. Both my wife and I are drawing Social Security. Last month, I paid off my mortgage, so I no longer have any debt. Since mid March, I've struggled to find the right portfolio for me. I explored Vanguard's PAS but I decided it was too cookie cutter and didn't add enough value to w...
by KEotSK66
Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I tilt toward small. But why would tilting toward value likely persistently outperform total stock market?
Replies: 57
Views: 3707

Re: I tilt toward small. But why would tilting toward value likely persistently outperform total stock market?

RussellWilson wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:57 pm
Value I think is also a risk explanation. A company trades cheaply relative to its fundamentals because there is something wrong with it.
there's your answer, in the first response no less

+1

i would just add sometimes the interpretation of the fundamentals can be wrong
by KEotSK66
Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

i don't care about performance relative to the benchmark or to the market if my fund is satisfying my needs why would i even be looking to see if "i could be doing better" You may be the only Boglehead who feels that way. However, a lot of people I knew felt that way in the '80s and 90s. When the m...
by KEotSK66
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 569
Views: 116695

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

i don't care about performance relative to the benchmark or to the market

if my fund is satisfying my needs why would i even be looking to see if "i could be doing better"
by KEotSK66
Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26666

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

ii's funny watching posters who advocate for 4% as safe stepping back at the last moment in their posts with a cta along the lines of maybe 4% isn't safe

even funnier are those who have posted so many times on 4% as safe (charts, tables, etc.) they "know" 4% will be safe in the future
by KEotSK66
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard balanced funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1686

Re: Vanguard balanced funds

jpohio wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:47 pm
You might consider Wellington, especially for an IRA
+1

or maybe wellesley (vwinx)
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"
Replies: 57
Views: 4990

Re: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"

vg offers a number of funds with stable conservative/moderate allocations between 35/65 and 65/35 those funds have done fine for decades no evolving, no adjusting, no algorithms, no studies, no forecasts i've been reading the "bonds are toast" and "stocks will save you" threads for 25 years Vanguar...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"
Replies: 57
Views: 4990

Re: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"

vg offers a number of funds with stable conservative/moderate allocations between 35/65 and 65/35

those funds have done fine for decades

no evolving, no adjusting, no algorithms, no studies, no forecasts

i've been reading the "bonds are toast" and "stocks will save you" threads for 25 years
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newbies question - Gordon equation & William Bernstein remark
Replies: 16
Views: 1210

Re: Newbies question - Gordon equation & William Bernstein remark

Hi, I'm 29 years old and making my first steps as an investor. I have recently read Dr William Bernstein book "The Investor's Manifesto" and I have been reading in this forum latley and seem to grasp most of the important stuff. (allocation, diversifisication, buy & hold etc). There is only one thi...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is risk often defined as volatility?
Replies: 27
Views: 1813

Re: Why is risk often defined as volatility?

Why is risk defined by most on here as volatility? Why aren't people allowed to have other interpretations of the term? I have an incredibly low risk tolerance, but for me, the primary risk is inflation risk - I cannot get myself to hold a lot of cash or nominal assets like bonds. Paper money to me...
by KEotSK66
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving from diversified to one-fund portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1495

Re: Moving from diversified to one-fund portfolio

i could be retiring almost any time over the next 4 years my roth and rollover iras are both 100% wellesley income (i'll be rolling my 401k into wellesley in my rollover ira when i retire) i doubt i'll ever have risky money invested in my taxable account but if i do i'll use a fund with low distribu...
by KEotSK66
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle
Replies: 39
Views: 3559

Re: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle

"risk" is a pretty broad term

but if a "risk" doesn't show up in the volatility/SD sooner or later it doesn't matter to me
by KEotSK66
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount needed to retire - inflation adjusted
Replies: 49
Views: 5495

Re: Amount needed to retire - inflation adjusted

*Bottom Line Question - what is your nest egg goal and how did you arrive at that number?* I'm hoping to get as many responses as possible to see the spectrum of ideas and opinions. Assume you are debt free, and spending $50,000 for yearly expenses, and hope to keep your same quality of life after ...
by KEotSK66
Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle
Replies: 39
Views: 3559

Re: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle

volatility is not risk :confused

if my nav goes down I have to sell more shares to meet my real draw
by KEotSK66
Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Larry beats the S&P 500.
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Larry beats the S&P 500.

it's pretty funny coming here and reading how investing in active funds is setting a bad example then being told we're free to select funds as we see fit, gee thanks guys same thing happens when you use words like dividends or shares...does not compute To point out the obvious: people, on internet ...
by KEotSK66
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Larry beats the S&P 500.
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Larry beats the S&P 500.

i've been invested in wellesley in increasing increments for 25 years, for the last 6 years I've been 100% wellesley except for my 401k which is 100% columbia dividend income (cdirx) which is also actively managed i used some index funds years ago, going forward i could only see myself using an inde...
by KEotSK66
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16429

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

There is very little extra return to be gain to go beyond 70/30. Klang, this is the part I have been trying to understand. What do you base it on? I understand that the simulations have many limitations but, as I posted above, when I run a 25 year simulation in cFireSim, 100% stocks has a 30% highe...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 21
Views: 6573

Re: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others

Stanford Center on Longevity conducted a study done by Pfau, Tomlinson, & Vernon that identified a simple retirement withdrawal strategy that compares well with other more complicated strategies on several criteria. The strategy involves combining Social Security benefits with required minimum dist...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 21
Views: 6573

Re: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others

Stanford Center on Longevity conducted a study done by Pfau, Tomlinson, & Vernon that identified a simple retirement withdrawal strategy that compares well with other more complicated strategies on several criteria. The strategy involves combining Social Security benefits with required minimum dist...
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond quality in Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 320

Re: Bond quality in Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX portfolio

if i felt i needed the performance prwcx cranks out i wouldn't have any problem investing in it

i would go to m* and check its chart to get an idea on its loss potential over time, iirc it lost between 40 and 45% between late 2007 and early 2009

it's a darn good aggressive fund
by KEotSK66
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2099

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

companies with poor earnings prospects will always exist

identifying those which can reverse their poor earnings prospects becomes the key
by KEotSK66
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of return risk -- when is it most dangerous?
Replies: 34
Views: 1481

Re: Sequence of return risk -- when is it most dangerous?

It is often stated that sequence of return risk is greatest at the beginning of retirement. I am not sure. Why is is a bigger risk at day zero than it is 5 years into retirement? Even if there is something special about day zero, it seems to me that every day of retirement is day zero for the rest ...
by KEotSK66
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young investors and bonds
Replies: 94
Views: 5103

Re: Young investors and bonds

If a young investor doesn't plan to touch the money for 20+ years and is completely unconcerned with short term drawdowns in equities (due to a belief that over time, stocks will continue to rise), does it really make sense to allocate ANYTHING to bonds? Especially in what seems like a low interest...
by KEotSK66
Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you spend captial gains do you reduce your shares in the mutual fund you own?
Replies: 20
Views: 1144

Re: If you spend captial gains do you reduce your shares in the mutual fund you own?

no you don't reduce your shares by spending your capital gains (ie, take those distributions)

(if you have nav growth/gain and you decide to spend some of that then of course you'll have to sell shares)
by KEotSK66
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?
Replies: 231
Views: 29306

Re: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?

not able to c+p the plot

for 1950-2014 anything below 30% stocks sacrificed return

the sweet spot was between 30 and 40% stocks
by KEotSK66
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This seems better than nominal treasury or corporate bonds, am I missing something?
Replies: 41
Views: 3761

Re: This seems better than nominal treasury or corporate bonds, am I missing something?

well what is it, long-term holder of stocks and bonds or parking money ???

go with intermediates, you'll get higher yield than short bonds and less interest rate risk than longs
by KEotSK66
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about the 4% rule
Replies: 91
Views: 4566

Re: Confusion about the 4% rule

During the last few months my portfolio value has been all over the place... at the peak on Feb 19 it was at $702K and my FIRE number is about $1M. But say hypothetically I wanted to retire... in mid Feb I would've used $702k, 4% would be $28K/yr. At the low point in the crash it was about $480K so...
by KEotSK66
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This seems better than nominal treasury or corporate bonds, am I missing something?
Replies: 41
Views: 3761

Re: This seems better than nominal treasury or corporate bonds, am I missing something?

And that is why I did mention the inflation adjustment and the fact that inflation is low and expected to be low for some time. I forgot to mention that if there is deflation you will lose money in TIPS as deflation will reduce the yield or mess with the adjustment that reduces the NAV of the fund....