Search found 117 matches

by pennsylvania211
Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Vanguard
Replies: 21
Views: 2197

Re: New to Vanguard

Congrats and welcome to the forum!
:happy
by pennsylvania211
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the difference between mental accounting and having a budget?
Replies: 17
Views: 1292

Re: What's the difference between mental accounting and having a budget?

Disclaimer: no formal training in economics. 1) Yes, one can maximize money by having absolute flexibility. However, practicing this flexibility requires time and energy to revisit and reevaluate decisions. 2) Having no flexibility is likely to be more expensive. However it’s also less mentally taxi...
by pennsylvania211
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused by Bogle's apparent dislike of ETFs
Replies: 101
Views: 8184

Re: Confused by Bogle's apparent dislike of ETFs

I’m willing to accept that Bogle may get things wrong, including in the mutual fund industry. He’s just human. However, so far Bogle seems to be on track. Vineviz I appreciate your perspective and it’s good overall to have some counterbalance, but I think you’re strawmanning Bogle. I say this becaus...
by pennsylvania211
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the growing trend of blindly buying index funds caused market inefficiency?
Replies: 47
Views: 4772

Re: Has the growing trend of blindly buying index funds caused market inefficiency?

I think I agree with the point above, and have a reductio ad absurdum question: Suppose that the entire market was indexing. In that case, how are prices determined for any equity since by definition, no one is paying any attention to the price of any single equity? So how large does indexing have ...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9435
Views: 755696

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I got out in early 2008 before the last crash and never got back in. :shock: Why don't you get back in with an extremely conservative allocation? Something like 30/70 or 40/60? Even this would be better than sitting on the sidelines. This is complicated but in short I'm conflicted about whether the...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3116

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

Time to think about active investing is AFTER evidence that shows superiority of active investing. Until then :sharebeer Even then bogleheads will call it performance chasing. I think the time to consider active investing will be if some regulations come to change index investing. No one can promis...
by pennsylvania211
Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3116

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

Time to think about active investing is AFTER evidence that shows superiority of active investing.

Until then :sharebeer
by pennsylvania211
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do YOU handle network security?
Replies: 105
Views: 6124

Re: How do YOU handle network security?

1. The router Verizon gave me when I signed up for FIOS. 2. My router has a password? 3. Couldn't care less what personal information they collect or use. Heck, if it helps advertisers send me ads I actually want to see, great. As someone with experience on this topic: 1) Network security absolutel...
by pennsylvania211
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 81
Views: 13903

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

pennsylvania211, your request for evidence was in response to mikejuss' writing : Damn--if the best that can be done via index investing is to barely keep up with inflation, will despair drive some of us into risker strategies? I was trying to provide evidence you asked for. You didn't provide any ...
by pennsylvania211
Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 81
Views: 13903

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

... In which investing time period has a total stock market index fund barely kept up with inflation ? I'd like to see some evidence for your opinion ... You can use portfoliovisualizer.com to answer that question. How about the well known "lost decade" of 2000-2009 where VTSMX lost money? Add an e...
by pennsylvania211
Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio
Replies: 106
Views: 8393

Re: Treasurys no longer provide the ballast for a portfolio

Ballast is the perfect word for what treasuries and other similar investments offer. Ballast is generally passive, dead weight that simply lowers the center of mass and improves the righting moment of a ship. The idea that bonds must zig when stocks zag has always been a myth, they are ballast beca...
by pennsylvania211
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying covid hit stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 1840

Re: Buying covid hit stocks

David Jay wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:24 pm I hope that didn't come across as condescending. I was exactly where you are about 6-7 years ago. I thought I could "outperform" the market.

It takes a measure of humility to take what the market gives and call it good.
Market charges an expensive tuition to teach lessons
by pennsylvania211
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 154
Views: 11180

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

As someone with large holdings in S&P 500 index funds, I appreciate them not acting mechanically. I hope they wait out the wild rides. Same. I'd rather S&P follow its own rules AND due diligence before adding a company to the index. This is about the long game and not speculation. If Tesla can show...
by pennsylvania211
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 81
Views: 13903

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

Damn--if the best that can be done via index investing is to barely keep up with inflation, will despair drive some of us into risker strategies? Or will some avoid the volatility of equities altogether (at least in their brokerage accounts) and instead keep their money in high-yield savings accoun...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year horizon: S&P index vs. AGTHX
Replies: 34
Views: 5585

Re: 30 year horizon: S&P index vs. AGTHX

Why stop there? If we're going to predict next decade by last three decades, why not Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Tesla and Google - who beat even AGTHX?

I'm just kidding, but if past could predict future, we'd all have increased our wealth by 1,000x or more. :sharebeer
by pennsylvania211
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

I wonder how many Robinhooders are trading are margin. That is one of the big draws for Robinhood. They have the easiest access to margin. That's what they want. Ah, yeah - looking at it, their "gold" subscription is $5/month and gives you $1000 on margin to get you hooked. People are their own wor...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% VTSAX vs. 100% VIGAX
Replies: 27
Views: 2855

Re: 100% VTSAX vs. 100% VIGAX

Yes I have moved deeper and deeper into my tilt as I’ve gained conviction by further learning. I still see a contrast between evidence based decisions and recency bias. It would be another story if I made this move in 2005 using a historic value run as my key justification. OP seems too short minde...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

I wonder how many Robinhooders are trading are margin. That is one of the big draws for Robinhood. They have the easiest access to margin. That's what they want. Ah, yeah - looking at it, their "gold" subscription is $5/month and gives you $1000 on margin to get you hooked. People are their own wor...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 SP500 Returns
Replies: 21
Views: 3168

Re: 2020 SP500 Returns

This is without precedent. No major event of the past is with precedent. One may even speculate that major new events can only happen on fault lines where there is no similar preceding event, because society generally makes preparations against mistakes of the past. I'd say it's better to keep calm...
by pennsylvania211
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Young Investors Shouldn't Dabble in Stocks"
Replies: 43
Views: 4355

Re: "Why Young Investors Shouldn't Dabble in Stocks"

I almost think people are salty on kids using a products like Robinhood because these kind of products didn't really exist when they were younger and are almost jealous its made it much easier for younger people to grasp the concept of investing. "They aren't doing all the things chapter 11 of The ...
by pennsylvania211
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]
Replies: 345
Views: 19008

Re: [Average return for 100/0, 70/30 asset allocation]

Yeah it's a personal decision. We're in our 30s and currently sleep well with 2 years of today's living expenses in cash, everything else goes in equities (VTSAX). If it came to it, we could stretch the cash to last us 3-4 years. Not a perfect plan by some measures. But perfect enough for our person...
by pennsylvania211
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with single stock friends
Replies: 41
Views: 3413

Re: How to deal with single stock friends

One thing I have learned about individual stock pickers over the years (and investors in general): everyone talks about winners and no one talks about losers. :sharebeer For example, for every share of Tesla bought last year, there was a share of Tesla sold last year. But only the buyer is bragging...
by pennsylvania211
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20561
Views: 2795862

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The S&P closed over 3,000. Just a little bit. Feels like a moral victory after a rough day. If you bought today instead of yesterday it was a victory, but who knows what tomorrow will bring. Good or bad it was not dull. Equities are supposed to be a long term game and hopefully when we look back 10...
by pennsylvania211
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which type of account should I do my active trading?
Replies: 22
Views: 1589

Re: In which type of account should I do my active trading?

With markets so uncertain and so much talk going on, I am feeling the itch to actively trade. I have decided to open a small, separate account to do active trading in, to have fun and satisfy my desire to trade (so I don't trade my real accounts). It will be a small amount of money I can afford to ...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 26, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?
Replies: 21
Views: 1979

Re: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?

I do not begrudge the executive leadership of Vanguard excellent compensation... Just to be clear - the issue raised here is with how Vanguard votes by proxy on the executive compensation in the companies held within Vanguard funds and not with Vanguard's compensation of its own leadership. I think...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 26, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?
Replies: 21
Views: 1979

Re: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?

I do not begrudge the executive leadership of Vanguard excellent compensation... Just to be clear - the issue raised here is with how Vanguard votes by proxy on the executive compensation in the companies held within Vanguard funds and not with Vanguard's compensation of its own leadership. +1 This...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 26, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?
Replies: 21
Views: 1979

Re: Is Vanguard's money where its mouth is?

Jack Bogle explains the problem in detail here:
It's a 55 min video.
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 26, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

So, I guess if Bogle said there was a teapot orbiting the sun you would believe him since someone hasn't proven it wrong. Hey bud.... when you speak about buying "THE market" but stop at just world stocks, can you please explain how that logic works? "THE market" also includes bonds, real estate, m...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

There's been a terrible opportunity cost to having invested in international for the last decade. I have quite a strong bias towards the US because I believe we have the most dynamic economy in the world. Maybe at sometime in the future international will do well but in the meantime the US is good ...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

It allows you to check off some of these: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simplicity 10 Stay the course There are so...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you hold commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1807

Re: Do you hold commodities?

There's benefit of diversification that commodities can provide. I don't dispute that.

But is it unreasonable to say that the return on commodities is "speculative" return?

Aren't lottery tickets also in the category of speculative return?

:confused
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Why stop at just total world stocks? It allows you to check off some of these: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simpl...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investor is bullish?
Replies: 14
Views: 1493

Re: Which investor is bullish?

Expecting to hold for another 30 years. I'm bull-ish.

:sharebeer
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Why stop at just total world stocks? It allows you to check off some of these: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simpl...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

I read an article today from Warren Buffett where he said again to simply own the S&P 500. Checkmate total market investors. Speculator Warren Buffet said it so it MUST be right. ... Also, I haven't made any arguments in this thread about my reasons for selecting US domestic. I made no claims on th...
by pennsylvania211
Sat May 23, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Well, I am not really claiming anything... It's clear to see which one is correct Sure bud... :sharebeer I'd like to see how it's so clear which one is correct . Burden of proof is on you not me. You are saying there is a teapot orbiting the sun and are asking me to prove you wrong because I don't ...
by pennsylvania211
Thu May 21, 2020 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Cool. So let's hear some well thought out argument on international, besides "buy the whole stack". Convince us that your claim is true. Dogma (a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true) isn't necessarily a good thing. How did you establish that buying the ...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3849

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I do have thoughts about these questions, but I don't believe that there is a single answer. As you note, much of it is subjective. Traditional Boglehead thought is probably that the answer to #2 is yes. But I think that certain strategies can be both efficient and resilient. I sometimes think abou...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Well, I am not really claiming anything... It's clear to see which one is correct Sure bud... :sharebeer I'd like to see how it's so clear which one is correct . Burden of proof is on you not me. You are saying there is a teapot orbiting the sun and are asking me to prove you wrong because I don't ...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

jibantik wrote: Wed May 20, 2020 7:07 pm Well, I am not really claiming anything...
jibantik wrote: It's clear to see which one is correct
Sure bud... :sharebeer

I'd like to see how it's so clear which one is correct.
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3849

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

I'm wondering several things about what lessons there are to be learned from all of this. 1. How desirable is resiliency when it comes to an investor's strategy? 2. Are efficiency and resiliency truly at odds with each other? Is it likely impractical for a strategy to have both characteristics? 3. ...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Don't get mad at me for pointing out logical fallacies. Everyone makes them from time to time. We are all human. We are all constantly learning. I make my own share of fallacies. If you point mine out, without name calling, I'd be happy to correct them and appreciate your contribution.

:sharebeer
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Oh, another US vs. International thread? Don't we already have like 10 active discussions right now? Imagine if exUS have kept outperforming 2009-2020 and thus lead in the 1900-2020 comparison. The other thread wouldn't be called "Why international?" but "Why US?". The global market is the haystack...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Yeah, why don't we invest only in the Nasdaq 100? I mean look at the performance! Especially the last 10 years. Or this year where it has a positive return in a bear market. Why should I invest in the inferior SP500? You're committing a logical fallacy, specifically a slippery slope fallacy. https:...
by pennsylvania211
Wed May 20, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Jack Bogle himself why he doesn't like international (he advises that if you MUST, no more than 20%): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvgptl5-Kcc At the end of the day, some bogleheads follow bogle when deciding not to do international. Other bogleheads f...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 19, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is like a birthday cake
Replies: 6
Views: 1188

Re: Investing is like a birthday cake

Most birthday cakes are unique, fun, and interesting on the outside, and similar on the inside. What attracts people isn't the cake, it's the candles and the decorations. This same is true for most investment portfolios. Are you paying to much for the image of a great portfolio, or are you focused ...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 19, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21480

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I used to be 70/30 before the downturn. Currently 100% VTSAX. Expecting 30 year horizon for investing. Sleeping better than before. When I had bonds, I’d worry about interest rates, inflation, taxes, and weaker long term return than stocks. In 100% equities, I don’t care what the monetary policy is...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 19, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21480

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I used to be 70/30 before the downturn. Currently 100% VTSAX. Expecting 30 year horizon for investing. Sleeping better than before. When I had bonds, I’d worry about interest rates, inflation, taxes, and weaker long term return than stocks. In 100% equities, I don’t care what the monetary policy is...
by pennsylvania211
Tue May 19, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 14001

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Jack Bogle himself why he doesn't like international (he advises that if you MUST, no more than 20%): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvgptl5-Kcc At the end of the day, some bogleheads follow bogle when deciding not to do international. Other bogleheads f...
by pennsylvania211
Mon May 18, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1473

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile markets

If your question is purely about DCA: - 12 investments vs 52 investments in a given year - less volatile vs more volatile - slightly less overall return vs slightly more overall return (time in the market > time to market, adjusted for weeks instead of years) then you added the part about market tim...