Search found 35 matches

by marky2kk
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18202

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Hulbert's summary says "But if the sole reason you’re investing in non-U.S. stocks is their alleged low correlation with U.S. stocks, you may want to think twice." Is that not what you just proved? I don't think so. For one thing, the low correlation is real and not "alleged". For another, I don't ...
by marky2kk
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should LT bonds be considered a separate asset class from stocks and bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1043

Re: Should LT bonds be considered a separate asset class from stocks and bonds?

All this against the backdrop of 40 years of declining interest rates. Some have repeatedly said that long-term yields could not fall further, and they did. I am sure this time they can fall further as well (see Germany). However, there is a lower bound (it's not zero). I am wondering how much diver...
by marky2kk
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's happening with Muni Money Market fund yields?
Replies: 141
Views: 12847

Re: What's happening with Muni Money Market fund yields?

How can these yields be so high? I don't get it.

VWAHX has a 2.2% SEC yield and that's high yield & long duration. Against that, how can VMSXX have a 3.4% yield? Could somebody please explain it to me :?
by marky2kk
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1509
Views: 122731

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

A simple economic reason for the existence of a small cap premium could be liquidity. Small cap stocks are less liquid and by investing you earn a liquidity premium. If you are a long-term buy and hold investor, you can afford to take the liquidity risk and earn the premium---just like with a CD. If...
by marky2kk
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18433

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

I think illiquidity in the muni ETF market paired with crazy volatility and the nature of this economic pause is causing the big drop. I’m holding fast to VTEB. Once the economy is firing again and the panic abates, I anticipate a fairly robust recovery in muni’s. I HATE to sell at all time lows, w...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4458

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

Buy mutual fund in normal times. TLH in crises times and sell mutual fund, free riding on other investors because NAV likely does not reflect value of the underlyings. Buy ETF version of a similar fund at a discount, potentially exploiting an arbitrage if not the entire discount is due to illiquidit...
by marky2kk
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rescue Pledge Triggers Biggest Treasury Bond Rout Since 1982
Replies: 3
Views: 492

Re: Rescue Pledge Triggers Biggest Treasury Bond Rout Since 1982

Just risk sentiment. Risk on, risk-off. Today was risk-on. It's good news for the economy potentially mitigating the impact of the virus. Stocks rise and yields rise. It's not higher rate expectations and it's not increased inflation expectations.
by marky2kk
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 4940

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

Do note that TIPs have been experiencing some heavy liquidity issues which may distort yields. Even in normal times they are less liquid than treasuries (the Fed has a note on that). In other words, in times when BND trades at a 5% discount it seems hard to imagine that TIPs yields do not contain a ...
by marky2kk
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of ETF’s in last weeks market panic
Replies: 22
Views: 2113

Re: Behavior of ETF’s in last weeks market panic

I take away 2 lessons from this: 1) We must be really careful with TLH in times of high volatility, i.e., right now. We do not want to sell at a discount to NAV just for the purpose of TLH (unless we need the cash) and then buy another ETF that perhaps trades at less of a discount. 2) If there is a ...
by marky2kk
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Still the Right Strategy
Replies: 82
Views: 3993

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Still the Right Strategy

I am very confused. Can someone explain the difference between "lifecycle investing" as discussed here and Life-cycle finance as discussed in the wiki? If they have nothing to do with each other, that's fine. I'm just having some difficulties to understand what is being spread over the investor's t...
by marky2kk
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...
Replies: 56
Views: 5820

Re: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...

..."It's a great time to buy when it's cheap!" I never understood that. Reading around here, a lot of the advice is that you shouldn't fear a market downturn---but that you should buy when it's low. Is there a reason why buying during a downturn is good advice? I think the advice is to stick to you...
by marky2kk
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5679

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

I hold HYD (my marginal tax rate is +45%). I knew it was trash and I knew it would collapse during an equity market downturn and I count it as part of my equity allocation.

However, that thing is not SPY. It is SPY 2-3x levered.

It was down 15% or so yesterday and is up 8% or so today.
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH specific question - yup one more
Replies: 11
Views: 283

Re: TLH specific question - yup one more

Sorry for derailing @OP. More questions: 1) Suppose in my case I do exchange all of my VWO for IEMG. 31 days later IEMG is in the minus. Then I can just sell all of IEMG and buy back VWO and realize another loss? 2) For my European stocks, selling all of VGK and swap for IEUR wouldn't be considered ...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH specific question - yup one more
Replies: 11
Views: 283

Re: TLH specific question - yup one more

I have a similar question. I bought VWO a year ago and then again 2 weeks again for a small rebalance. Now I am just considering selling it all and buy EEM. Would I run into any wash sale problems? Look at the EEM expense ratio. Why would you want to buy it? Then look at IEMG and SCHE. They are bet...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH specific question - yup one more
Replies: 11
Views: 283

Re: TLH specific question - yup one more

I have a similar question. I bought VWO a year ago and then again 2 weeks again for a small rebalance.

Now I am just considering selling it all and buy EEM. Would I run into any wash sale problems?
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire
Replies: 41
Views: 3187

Re: Educate me on on today's treasury market quagmire

MarketWatch article: https://on.mktw.net/2wORFcA That was a good read. So basically it's rebalancing mutual funds and hedge funds unwhinding their basis trades leading to excess supply for off-the run-treasuries + dealers unwilling / unable to put the off-the-run on their balance sheets in tomes of...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190953

Re: Coronavirus and the market

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd5becfd8-6495-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700 Good to see that we are on a steeper trajectory than the Netherlands with much less test...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire
Replies: 41
Views: 3187

Re: Educate me on on today's treasury market quagmire

Is this factually accurate? I don't have a bird's eye view of all the financial institutions but I've read the balance sheets of a couple of financial institutions (ranging from small-cap to big-cap institutions) in great detail for valuation purposes and it does not seem accurate at all that they ...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire
Replies: 41
Views: 3187

Re: Educate me on on today's treasury market quagmire

So, Is there a shortage of buyers and, if so, why isn't the market pushing the rates higher to attract more buyers? That's what happened yesterday. Some actors perhaps were forced to delever, demanded cash, and yields went up yesterday as stocks went down. The bloomberg article points to hedge fund...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire
Replies: 41
Views: 3187

Re: Educate me on on today's treasury market quagmire

So, Is there a shortage of buyers and, if so, why isn't the market pushing the rates higher to attract more buyers? That's what happened yesterday. Some actors perhaps were forced to delever, demanded cash, and yields went up yesterday as stocks went down. The bloomberg article points to hedge fund...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reality Check - Don't assume prices will go up
Replies: 44
Views: 4057

Re: Reality Check - Don't assume prices will go up

What kind of thread is this. Of course we assume that prices go up, i.e., the expected return on stocks is positive. Or are you telling me that the expected return on stocks is zero from now on? Of course there is a risk to it. The reason we are buying is that expected returns are high after a marke...
by marky2kk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296918

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I just don't get it. Isn't the further spread and possible shutdown of whole industries already priced in? I mean what's expectation from the market? That the amount of infected people will suddenly drop and we're back to the usual by May 2020? Not sure whether it's fully priced in but sentiment is...
by marky2kk
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5004
Views: 434421

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

and also is the explanation for today's movement on this portfolio that (a) stimulus package increases rates, but (b) stimulus is insufficient to resolve panic & potentially previously overbought markets? And also, nobody is like, flying on Delta to stay in a Hyatt to go to some concert just becaus...
by marky2kk
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 4031

Re: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates

Maybe this is the wrong thread, but with the recent surge of gold as the "safe haven", I am wondering... I never invested in gold because it doesn't pay interest, it doesn't pay dividends, and basically it has no intrinsic value. I was told it is just speculation instead of investing, although I nev...
by marky2kk
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Fed cut doesn't work?
Replies: 137
Views: 6490

Re: What if Fed cut doesn't work?

This cannot be repeated enough: The monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve are to foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. It is not a part of the Fed's mandate to encourage the stock market, although this can be a side-effect. This is onl...
by marky2kk
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to US: questions about retirement accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 431

Re: New to US: questions about retirement accounts

My preferred country of retirement is Germany. I don't know how long I will stay in the U.S., at least another 3 years or so. I will get a green card this year. Germany taxes Roth distributions. I found this is in another forum: "2) For Roth IRA's, the result is not as good. Roth IRA's take posttax...
by marky2kk
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to US: questions about retirement accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 431

Re: New to US: questions about retirement accounts

My preferred country of retirement is Germany. I don't know how long I will stay in the U.S., at least another 3 years or so. I will get a green card this year. Germany taxes Roth distributions. I found this is in another forum: "2) For Roth IRA's, the result is not as good. Roth IRA's take posttax ...
by marky2kk
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to US: questions about retirement accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 431

New to US: questions about retirement accounts

Hi, I am 31, fairly new to the U.S. (not a citizen), and started reading up on retirement accounts. Currently, I have a 401k (or whatever they are called when you are federal employee) and a taxable brokerage account. I am single filing, my marginal tax rate is close to 50%, and my income is above $...
by marky2kk
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large taxable portfolio - how to maximize charitable giving and minimize loss over long time horizon?
Replies: 25
Views: 2417

Re: Large taxable portfolio - how to maximize charitable giving and minimize loss over long time horizon?

Hi all, in case it helps others, I just wanted to post some updates: ... 6. Would any of this change if I spend significant time abroad in GBP or EUR? I have read some references to "investing in the currency you're spending" but have never understood the rationale. I haven't heard anything from an...
by marky2kk
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 1436

Re: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs

That's right, but "having a gain or a loss" is a risk as it introduces variance into the payoff when I leave the U.S., right? It would be better to have no risk, i.e. zero gain or loss with approximate certainty, which happens when the investment horizon is equal to the duration. So that's my though...
by marky2kk
Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 1436

Re: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs

I sold 90k of LEMB and was thinking to put that money into HYD. Now I am scratching my head around the following: In principle, my investment horizon is several decades. However, there is a 75% chance that I will leave the U.S. (and not be taxable) within the next 3-5 years. I am not a U.S. citizen....
by marky2kk
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 1436

Re: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs

Personally I would not bother. Yes, you save some taxes on the muni bond return - but the return is low to begin with. So, even if you save the 40% taxes on their return (of only 1.4 %), so you save like 0.5% on what value ? Say you have 50k in muni bonds (is it that much?) - you save a whopping 25...
by marky2kk
Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Savings Account
Replies: 42
Views: 5562

Re: Bonds vs. Savings Account

I am trying to get my head around the trade-off HYS vs. (short-term) treasuries vs. long-term treasuries. With a HYS, there is no volatility in prices. Treasuries have volatility in prices which---all else equal---is bad. A HYS gives around 1.7% currently, SHV has a yield of 1.48% (add back a couple...
by marky2kk
Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 1436

Re: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs

Thanks! Are you sure that I have to pay state taxes on Muni bonds? I think I don't have to, see here https://www.municipalbonds.com/tax-education/tax-exemption-from-state-income-taxes/ "Our capital’s district does not tax in-state or out-of-state municipal bonds. This means Washington D.C. residents...
by marky2kk
Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 1436

Municipal bonds vs cash/CDs

I am fairly new to the U.S. and deciding whether to shift away from cash/CDs into Munis. Background: I am 31, single, have a safe job, basically all my wealth is in taxable account, my asset allocation is 60% stocks, 10% in something less risky than stocks but more risky than cash/CDs/treasuries, an...