Search found 187 matches

by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If you look at it that way, almost all that we do here on this forum is a waste of time. We could have all stepped away after either reading the book or posting a single "portfolio advise" where some helpful bogleheads would tell us to use a 3-fund portfolio and then add 2 pages discussing the exac...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16429

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

I started investing in 2010. I never have been tested in a significant, concerning market cycle like the tech bubble or the Great Recession. However, I did my homework and internalized the buy and hold long term investor should expect harrowing times. Odds are if you tune in to the news and try to ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

All, I don't have any insight into the coronavirus' impact on the market. I'm just posting to unburden myself of the fact that I invested a large lump sum (to which I did not previously have access) on the 18th of February. I did not expect my risk tolerance to be tested so... expeditiously. I am t...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

All, I don't have any insight into the coronavirus' impact on the market. I'm just posting to unburden myself of the fact that I invested a large lump sum (to which I did not previously have access) on the 18th of February. I did not expect my risk tolerance to be tested so... expeditiously. I am t...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Yes. How is that data reason for calm exactly? Those numbers have the potential to kill an awful lot of Americans. If you were one of the conspiracy theorists that were saying this is the apocalypse then sure. I guess. But those numbers (2% fatal) are what most of us have been assuming and imo that...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Yes. How is that data reason for calm exactly? Those numbers have the potential to kill an awful lot of Americans. If you were one of the conspiracy theorists that were saying this is the apocalypse then sure. I guess. But those numbers (2% fatal) are what most of us have been assuming and imo that...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Yes. How is that data reason for calm exactly? Those numbers have the potential to kill an awful lot of Americans. If you were one of the conspiracy theorists that were saying this is the apocalypse then sure. I guess. But those numbers (2% fatal) are what most of us have been assuming and imo that...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market: What me worry?

I think we all can agree there is a huge amount of uncertainty over the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the market. That said, as a buy and hold investor I see minimal long-term downside for me. Potential downside events: Zombie apocalypse: COVID-19 has a huge impact resul...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do you Exercise Indoors?
Replies: 127
Views: 9617

Re: How Do you Exercise Indoors?

There are literally thousands of different workouts online, for free. As someone who is a scientific researcher in this space, every new trend totally confuses me, but almost all of them come down to the social aspect and there is a lot of recent research supporting the idea that socializing is a h...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23939

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

I think the NoCal case is a game changer here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/health/coronavirus-testing-california.html Inability of tracing the transmission seems to indicate very stealth transmission capabilities. Assume that people who traveled out of China (or any other hotspot) before tra...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23939

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

I think the NoCal case is a game changer here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/health/coronavirus-testing-california.html Inability of tracing the transmission seems to indicate very stealth transmission capabilities. Assume that people who traveled out of China (or any other hotspot) before tra...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23939

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do. The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Please stay on-topic, which are the market effects. Climate policy is off-topic. See: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include: US or world economic, political, tax, health care and...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I wonder how many people are reading about the Coronavirus this weekend and trying to decide what to do come Monday with their investments. Some keep comparing sickness cases and death rates to that of the flu - but the second largest economy in the world didn't shut factories down and force people...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37775

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Prediction: 40%. I think it could easily go lower, but I think the government will step in to buttress the market at some point. I don't know of any way they can? Do you? Central bank to buy stock in the stock market? (that is a step some places have taken, but it's hard to imagine the Fed going th...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

- The critical case rate and case fatality rate were strongly correlated with co-morbidities. Individuals with COVID-19 and cardiovascular disease had a 10.5% fatality rate, while diabetes (7.3%), chronic respiratory disease (6.3%), hypertension (6%), and cancer (5.6%) were also associated with inc...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

GETTING THE FLU SUCKS. Omg I’m so tired of reading “don’t worry it’s just like the flu”. People die from the flu. There’s a flu vaccine and yet, a lot of people still die from it. So what if there was a pathogen that spread like the flu, had a higher mortality rate and yet there was no vaccine ? Li...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

GETTING THE FLU SUCKS. Omg I’m so tired of reading “don’t worry it’s just like the flu”. People die from the flu. There’s a flu vaccine and yet, a lot of people still die from it. So what if there was a pathogen that spread like the flu, had a higher mortality rate and yet there was no vaccine ? Li...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I wonder how many people are reading about the Coronavirus this weekend and trying to decide what to do come Monday with their investments. Some keep comparing sickness cases and death rates to that of the flu - but the second largest economy in the world didn't shut factories down and force people...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Anyone else watched Washington State Press Conference? CDC just changed the testing rule this week, Washington just started testing patients with no recent flying history yesterday and today we have our first death. In other words, if CDC didn't change their rule, this patient won't be tested, we w...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

GETTING THE FLU SUCKS. Omg I’m so tired of reading “don’t worry it’s just like the flu”. People die from the flu. There’s a flu vaccine and yet, a lot of people still die from it. So what if there was a pathogen that spread like the flu, had a higher mortality rate and yet there was no vaccine ? Li...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

You really can't compare COVID-19 to the H1N1 flu, but since you did, here are the numbers from the CDC for the US between April, 2009, and April, 2010: 60 million cases 275,000 hospitalizations 12,469 deaths Most deaths (80%) were in otherwise healthy patients UNDER 65. The world's population has ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

- The critical case rate and case fatality rate were strongly correlated with co-morbidities. Individuals with COVID-19 and cardiovascular disease had a 10.5% fatality rate, while diabetes (7.3%), chronic respiratory disease (6.3%), hypertension (6%), and cancer (5.6%) were also associated with inc...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Wuhan has so far built 16 facility-turned temporary hospitals with more than 13,000 beds, according to the official. The hospitals have treated a total of 12,000 patients, or one in every four patients of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan. Over 7,600 patients are now being treated in such facilities. ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I do have some concern for Coronavirus control in the US. Just came back from Taiwan yesterday to LAX. I say about 90% of the people on the streets in Taiwan are wearing face masks. Near 100% in the subway. The airport has scanners reading everyone's temp as they go through immigration controls. Yo...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I'm watching POTUS press conference. The deceased is said to be female, late 50's with some pre-existing health conditions. Weird, as the Governor of WA said it was a male. Yes, I just read that. Perhaps it was my mistake or else I got it mixed up with another person. There is also a women (I think...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I wonder how many people are reading about the Coronavirus this weekend and trying to decide what to do come Monday with their investments. Some keep comparing sickness cases and death rates to that of the flu - but the second largest economy in the world didn't shut factories down and force people...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

So how is it different from the flu and every other virus everyone panicked about the last ten years? Boomers weren't retiring by the millions every year 10 years ago and facing a virus that affects them disproportionately. The Me generation is very panicked over the future of Me. Same question - t...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

and if millions of people die - guess what, your asset allocation will be irrelevant anyway. Millions of people die every year from infectious diseases. Not to minimize the uncertainty or human cost of this current epidemic, but millions of people dying does not translate into asset allocations bec...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

the fact that people continue to think thta this is like the flu, or not as bad, tells me that there is overconfidence in the market. From a financial aspect of this, its rather interesting that how people see this - esp in the china thread also from a month ago. Markets might stabilize but news is...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I imagine tomorrow will be another wild ride now that “death has reached the United States” or whatever clickbait is unleashed (the person was over 50 with health complications already, but that won’t get mentioned I’m sure) People tend to care a lot more about things that occur in their own countr...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Stopping the virus will be hard. From the wide spread to throughout the world you can no longer target any one country from travel exclusion. I read that the Coronavirus has already been in Wuhan for a whole month before being noticed by health officials. Community based infection is probably alrea...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Every day I think that maybe tomorrow I'll put some of my cash in, but the Kirkland nursing home could really shock. Over 50 people suspected of infection, half the very vulnerable elderly residents. Well of course elderly nursing home patients are likely to die from this. Like they are from the fl...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Every day I think that maybe tomorrow I'll put some of my cash in, but the Kirkland nursing home could really shock. Over 50 people suspected of infection, half the very vulnerable elderly residents. Well of course elderly nursing home patients are likely to die from this. Like they are from the fl...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I imagine tomorrow will be another wild ride now that “death has reached the United States” or whatever clickbait is unleashed (the person was over 50 with health complications already, but that won’t get mentioned I’m sure) People tend to care a lot more about things that occur in their own countr...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 24998

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

...unless I'm still not feeling good about the market... And this why you need a written IPS - so you don’t make your investing decisions based on whether you are “feeling good” about the market. Sorry, but this situation is different. I'm doing my best in this thread to *not* speak about the speci...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 24998

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

For one to successfully manage his/her own portfolio, one needs knowledge of basic financial concepts, a solid plan, and a background understanding of financial history. Making decisions about your portfolio based on your feelings and gut is no way to manage your money. There will always be market ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 24998

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

You joined this site way too long ago (and you're too old) to be 85/15 and now thinking about going 100% bonds. You must have read my million posts over this time period stating.. "You should ALWAYS be prepared for the market crashing 50% tomorrow. Because it might." Did you think I was lying? Obvi...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I’m 40 and am in a DB pension scheme but apart from that 100% equities. I did have 20k in cash last week for a possible near term purchase but couldn’t stop myself buying equities with it on Friday. Here’s hoping for even cheaper prices to come as I’m still accumulating for another 15 years For mon...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Do you guys think it is a good idea to be 100% equities even in retirement? I'd say equities is for money you don't need for at least 10 years, preferably 20 years. If you're in retirement and that's your only source of income it's a very very bad decision. Frankly stupid and irresponsible. If you'...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37775

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

-25% only BARELY gets you into a bear market. There is no measure of past performance that gets you into a bear market. If you take a 20% drop as the definition of a bear market, then a 20% drop from the previous market top means that you were in a bear market that started at the past market top. W...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296926

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Serious question - why test? I'm not an expert in this area but one reason is so that patients who test positive, and possibly also their close contacts, can be isolated to reduce spread of the disease. So maybe if you are a child you won't go to school? But they would have to send someone to your ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23939

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

I think the NoCal case is a game changer here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/health/coronavirus-testing-california.html Inability of tracing the transmission seems to indicate very stealth transmission capabilities. Assume that people who traveled out of China (or any other hotspot) before tra...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?
Replies: 232
Views: 23939

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide... The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far... You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun... Your comparison is apples to oranges. (From my understanding based on recent reporting) The coronavirus ...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37775

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

I'll play, 20% or a little less. I tend to think there is a little too much overaction in the market. If it drops closer to 20%, I'll be be buying back in on S&P 500. Take a look at my summary of historical crashes over the last five decades upthread. Most 10% or 20% drops throughout history simply...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Do you guys think it is a good idea to be 100% equities even in retirement? I'd say equities is for money you don't need for at least 10 years, preferably 20 years. If you're in retirement and that's your only source of income it's a very very bad decision. Frankly stupid and irresponsible. If you'...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Do you guys think it is a good idea to be 100% equities even in retirement? I'd say equities is for money you don't need for at least 10 years, preferably 20 years. If you're in retirement and that's your only source of income it's a very very bad decision. Frankly stupid and irresponsible. If you'...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

It's time to test our mettle!! I was in the market during 2008 but I was only a wee lad and my portfolio was minuscule but now seeing that I dropped $30k in a few days has been sobering. Regardless, I'm in for it the long haul baby so time to buckle down and ride this roller coaster! Posting to enc...
by Ornery Old Guy
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

avecmoi wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:39 pm
Still 100% equities but will have cash infusion in 1-2 months and salivating about the sale prices on stocks.
Better get it in sooner than that! In two months we will be back to where we were two weeks ago!
by Ornery Old Guy
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

95-100% here; not loving this development but it is to be expected. I got REALLY unlucky from a timing perspective as my annual cash bonus was paid-out on 2/19 and I immediately dropped a lump sum of >$100k into the market (via VTI/VXUS/VGT). 2/19 has proven to literally be the top-of-the-market :o...