Search found 278 matches

by JonnyB
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 29
Views: 1688

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

annu wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:31 pm
Image

What do you think?
I think it looks like they finally got the Wall they've been promising for three years.
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 89
Views: 6803

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

As Massie put it: "if getting us into $6 trillion more debt doesn’t matter, then why are we not getting $350 trillion more in debt so that we can give a check of $1 million to every person in the country" Was it Massie who also said "If two aspirin for a headache does no harm, then why not take 100?"
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I just received my second order of surgical masks from China via Amazon. It took several weeks to receive the order but they are available. It is cheaper to buy them via Amazon than asking someone to buy them in Hong Kong and ship them to you. KlangFool I see deliveries scheduled for end of May or ...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

CDC says that as a medical provider I can be in the hospital taking care of random patients wearing a surgical mask, washing my hands, and not touching my face. If that is true, why can't everyone in the US follow the same practice when they are out and about. Wear a mask, wash your hands, don't to...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How far can hours be reduced/pay cut without a furlough?
Replies: 11
Views: 1172

Re: How far can hours be reduced/pay cut without a furlough?

Yes, that is what they are applying for, no doubt. Perhaps I'll hear an update from them once they have more clarity on what they are getting from the Payroll Protection loan. Right now, the best outcome for me is to be laid off, which I never would've imagined in "normal" times. (We do not have em...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How far can hours be reduced/pay cut without a furlough?
Replies: 11
Views: 1172

Re: How far can hours be reduced/pay cut without a furlough?

Does your company qualify as a small business with less than 500 employees? If so your employer should be applying for a CARES Act Payroll Protection loan. This allows your employer to get a loan of up to $10,000,000 to continue paying employees full wages and health insurance. The loan is 100% forg...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

folkher0 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:34 pm
How does pushing the deadline back 4 days after issuing it fit into that strategy?
The deadline revisions have gone exponential.
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does “the market already had it priced in” even mean?
Replies: 88
Views: 3830

Re: What does “the market already had it priced in” even mean?

Many efficient market aficionados try to have it both ways. They claim that markets are efficient, but that does not mean that prices are either right or rational. But this makes no sense. If prices can be wrong or irrational, as these people allow, then a person can exploit those to make a profit. ...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does “the market already had it priced in” even mean?
Replies: 88
Views: 3830

Re: What does “the market already had it priced in” even mean?

The idea of priced in and the Efficient Market Hypothesis is like the existence of god. It is an issue of religious faith that can be neither proved nor disproved. Fama himself says as much pointing out the Joint Hypothesis Problem. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a tautology in that it says that...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 82
Views: 5521

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

Next up:

If I own a lot of military contractor stocks, would a world war be a good thing?
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That being said, isn't the per capita number really what's needed for comparison? Given that the U.S. now has more cases than China and that China has more than 4 times the population, it's pretty clear that the U.S. has 4 or 5 times the number of cases per capita. As for deaths, China has a little...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 56
Views: 3867

Re: Inflation

I find it rather curious that not long ago when there were tax cuts financed by $1.5 trillion in debt folks were all "Whoopee! Party time!" But now, in a time of national crisis when people are really hurting and disaster relief of $2.2 trillion folks are "Inflation! Armageddon! Zimbabwe!" It's like...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28377

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This time it actually is different. We KNOW we'll get through this (as a society). There is an end in site. What is that end? In six months, either the vast majority of the population will be infected, go through the illness, and be either immune on the other side or dead. Or (the other option) is ...
by JonnyB
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28377

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This time it actually is different. We KNOW we'll get through this (as a society). There is an end in site. What is that end? In six months, either the vast majority of the population will be infected, go through the illness, and be either immune on the other side or dead. Or (the other option) is ...
by JonnyB
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift Splitting Question-Which Account to Use?
Replies: 7
Views: 380

Re: Gift Splitting Question-Which Account to Use?

I don't know anyone who worries about this. It could become an issue if you are divorced, but otherwise no big deal.
by JonnyB
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Top Doctors Join NJ Senator Pennacchio’s Call to Use Hydroxychloroquine to Combat Spread of COVID-19 Since it is the "top doctors" it must be true. Let's see some of the specialties of these "top doctors": urology, orthopedics, neurology, anesthesiology, ophthalmology, radiology, hematology, dentis...
by JonnyB
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Macroeconomics and the current market questions
Replies: 28
Views: 1453

Re: Macroeconomics and the current market questions

euroman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:42 am
I would not be surprised. The Japanese central bank has been buying equities for some years now.
And economists have pretty much universally agreed it has been ineffective. Japan has done the experiment for us. We don't need to repeat it.
by JonnyB
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Macroeconomics and the current market questions
Replies: 28
Views: 1453

Re: Macroeconomics and the current market questions

I am also concerned that this is truly the end of free markets. The Fed just announced that they are supporting unlimited QE. They are purchasing corporate debt and "other assets". Does this mean the Fed is buying equities? Why would the Fed buy equities? That doesn't help the economy. When you buy...
by JonnyB
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Macroeconomics and the current market questions
Replies: 28
Views: 1453

Re: Macroeconomics and the current market questions

I am also concerned that this is truly the end of free markets. The Fed just announced that they are supporting unlimited QE. They are purchasing corporate debt and "other assets". Does this mean the Fed is buying equities? Why would the Fed buy equities? That doesn't help the economy. When you buy...
by JonnyB
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

"AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"

I don't know how this works. The White House has done nothing to shut anything down. So there's nothing for them to reverse to open things back up.

Everything so far has been done by state officials.
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]

Most businesses have a line of credit at the bank which they use to smooth the monthly flows of payroll and revenue. They do that already. Borrowed money is really cheap now.
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28377

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. unemployment may hit 30% in the second quarter, with GDP falling by 50%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/u-s-futures-tumble-with-virus-crippling-american-economy Again, you have to be careful. When economists say...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28377

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. unemployment may hit 30% in the second quarter, with GDP falling by 50%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/u-s-futures-tumble-with-virus-crippling-american-economy Again, you have to be careful. When economists say...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28377

Re: It's Not Different This Time

We're being told that GDP is about to fall 50% in a single quarter . That's completely unprecedented, TMK. You have to be careful. Generally economists give quarterly changes as annualized rates. You can divide by four to get a rough estimate of the quarterly change. Or more accurately raise it to ...
by JonnyB
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]

I'm taking the opposite tack. I'm using this opportunity to keep employees on the payroll and their households and families and health insurance secure at no cost to me except a bit of paperwork. And they will be there for me later when this is over, unlike if I were to chuck them out on the street...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Macroeconomics and the current market questions
Replies: 28
Views: 1453

Re: Macroeconomics and the current market questions

I am no supporter of MMT, I’m just wondering if we are already in it with all of the printing of money and handouts. It’s as if debts don’t matter anymore. To be sure I understand, are you saying it seems to you that Congress, the Treasury, and the Fed are presently operating as if MMT is the right...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you think wash sale rules don’t apply to a 401K?
Replies: 13
Views: 891

Re: Why do you think wash sale rules don’t apply to a 401K?

I agree that there would be nothing "monumental" about a new IRS tax ruling. When the previous ruling came out about IRAs, folks just stopped doing it and hucksters like Ed Slott had to revise their books about tax loopholes. That's all. A pretty minor event. Hard to know if the IRS really cares. In...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8697

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Understandable, but a recession will last like what? ... 2-8 years most likely? And you still get dividend during that period. So, after the 2001 crash it took 10 years to get back to the starting point - with dividends. It took about 5 yrs 7.5 mos. to regain the value of the 9/1/2000 market peak o...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255594

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Fed's Bullard says U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter ‘Everything is on the table’ for Fed to provide support https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q Morgan Stanley: We expect the US economy to contract at a 2...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]

I'm taking the opposite tack. I'm using this opportunity to keep employees on the payroll and their households and families and health insurance secure at no cost to me except a bit of paperwork. And they will be there for me later when this is over, unlike if I were to chuck them out on the street.
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Upside down car: advice [car loan]
Replies: 57
Views: 2878

Re: Upside down car: advice

I might not sell it. If he sells it now he might have a bad loan at a HIGHER RATE essentially making everything worse. Then he is still paying the car loan for nothing. 5 way he has to pay back the loan that is a sunk cost He's very likely much better off with a $15k loan for remaining balance than...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The town of Vo in Italy did a test. The tested all 3000 citizens of the town -- all of them. They got 66 positives, a rate of 2.2%. So we know false positive rate must be less than 2.2%. That's not the correct way to calculate a false positive rate. Sorry, wrong terminology on my part. I should hav...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Total positive tests = 900 (true positive) + 4950 (false positive) = 5850. A test with a 90% sensitivity and a 95% specificity is a very good test. The current COVID tests were developed in a hurry. They are unlikely to be that good and so the numbers are likely to be that much worse. I do not clai...
by JonnyB
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 27
Views: 1782

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

Given that U.S. Treasuries are yielding 0.85% for 10 years and 1.45% for 30 years, Mr. Market is saying he sees no inflation on the horizon for a good long time.
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

spidercharm01 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:52 pm
Okay. But none of these countries have high enough population of cases to see the pattern clearly.

Do you think its pure coincidence that all the top countries in the list have cold climate?
Do you think it is coincidence that 88% of the world's population is in the northern hemisphere?
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I think current patterns clearly show this to be the case. Cold countries are impacted heavily as we can see from the map while countries with hot weather have negligible number of cases. As weather warms, it should reduce in spread as well as intensity significantly. There is no reason to believe ...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I think current patterns clearly show this to be the case. Cold countries are impacted heavily as we can see from the map while countries with hot weather have negligible number of cases. As weather warms, it should reduce in spread as well as intensity significantly. There is no reason to believe ...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

If employees are kept on payroll while they take FMLA, they are still responsible for paying for the group health insurance. Insurance companies are changing their rules to allow this, which means the employer has to front the money for the premiums and then collect the money from the employee. If ...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3658
Views: 255594

Re: Coronavirus and the market

How does the govt. come up with 1-2 trillion that’s proposed for the aid package? Does it issue treasuries? Is there a market that large for this? You may have noticed that the prices for Treasuries are at or near record highs. High prices imply a strong demand for more Treasuries, which the Treasu...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

I meant employers will have to decide how to staff their companies if not operating at full capacity. For example, a doctor's office may continue operating but at 50% capacity and therefore those non-working employees may be placed on temporary leaves, but if they are still on temporary leave after...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

It’s not that simple. Someone has to decide who works and who gets furloughed. Which of those employees will have to be terminated because of these changes. I don't think you understand how FMLA works. You don't get to decide who to furlough. Employees furlough themselves based on their family need...
by JonnyB
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

A tale of two cities. Notice that Kentucky and Tennessee had about the same number of cases on March 11 when the governor of Kentucky started closing schools and advising lockdowns. The governor of Tennessee waited a week longer to do the same. The delay made a huge difference. Today, so far, Tennes...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Suppose that with no interventions, the US has a $20 trillion GDP per year, or $5 trillion per quarter. Second quarter is down -25%, so we make $3.75 trillion ... The practice in the U.S. is to use annualized rates for quarterly GDP. This is because you generally want to compare the slopes of GDP c...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4363

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

There is simply no reason for corporations to need bailouts. They can get as much money as they like by simply doing reverse buybacks, issuing new shares. Corporations spent billions on buybacks. They can collect billions just as easily with reverse buybacks. Problem is timing. You can't just turn ...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remember the Diamond Princess from almost a month ago? An eighth person just died today. There are still 14 in the hospital.

Just a reminder that this disease is very serious and can cause long lasting effects resulting in death.
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4363

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

There is simply no reason for corporations to need bailouts. They can get as much money as they like by simply doing reverse buybacks, issuing new shares. Corporations spent billions on buybacks. They can collect billions just as easily with reverse buybacks.
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. No they didn't. It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162798

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. No they didn't. It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21...
by JonnyB
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How accurate are bank appraisals?
Replies: 17
Views: 1241

Re: How accurate are bank appraisals?

Changes after 2008 bar lenders from doing appraisals directly, to avoid conflicts of interest. Instead, the lender contracts with a third-party appraisal service which has no incentive for the loan to go through. This isn't the whole story. Dodd Frank in 2010 required the use of third party apprais...
by JonnyB
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7312

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

I think you are way over thinking this. Most small businesses use payroll services to handle payroll. They should handle this fine.

It's going to be an modification of the payroll tax which employers already handle, with bi-weekly or monthly payments and end of quarter Form 941.