Search found 183 matches

by Pikel
Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in vacant land (acerage)
Replies: 37
Views: 4988

Re: Investing in vacant land (acerage)

I live on some acreage in upstate NY. Old pasture uplands with some hardwoods. I built the house myself and am free of debt. Land is good for doing things with, not speculating. It is a risky speculation, maybe like owning a single stock that doesn't produce anything. Being interested in using land ...
by Pikel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 150
Views: 10276

Re: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]

I haven't read the whole thread, so this may have been covered already. If you decide to buy QQQ do it in tax advantaged space so that if you decide to speculate back out of it there are no tax consequences. I have held some QQQ for years, and at this point the capital gains tax is too penalizing to...
by Pikel
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Larry beats the S&P 500.
Replies: 126
Views: 11387

Re: Larry beats the S&P 500.

You know if active investment management is completely random some people will still beat the market. Simple thought experiment, if 10000 people flip coins, losers leave and winners keep flipping, there will be about 10 people that can flip a winner ten times in a row. If this was 10 investment mana...
by Pikel
Wed May 06, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Divergence of S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: Divergence of S&P 500 and Nasdaq

QQQ is a version of flight to quality in my opinion. Lots of strong balance sheets, lots of cash, still doing going to have decent earnings with 25% unemployment.
by Pikel
Sat May 02, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?
Replies: 24
Views: 2681

Re: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?

You only sold low because the fed is buying up the corporate bond market at the direction of Blackrock.

If I thought I needed more return I would not reach for yield, I'd take a bigger "risky" allocation.

Then again Junk bonds may be a risk free asset now.
by Pikel
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lateral move in a bear market
Replies: 8
Views: 1364

Re: Pull trigger or sit tight?

Do it Monday. If the market goes down more, you can move from VTI to VOO (S&P 500) to tax loss harvest more.

Don't worry about dividends.

You are making the right decision.
by Pikel
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not be more aggressive about stocks?
Replies: 27
Views: 1896

Re: Why not be more aggressive about stocks?

What happens if your employment is a casualty of a recession or depression? We are over 20% unemployment after <2 months of the current pandemic. Included in those numbers are healthcare providers - who would have thought that doctors would be filing for unemployment during a pandemic? This is all v...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?

So you are recommending that I stay away from long-term corporates and long-term treasuries. Is that because you feel that the long-term bonds carry too much risk for someone that is 78 years old or does age not enter into your thinking? Yes. I don't think it makes sense to seek out funds with an a...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: Is doing a barbell bond strategy now an OK move?

I'm mostly stock (15%), CDs (50%) and cash (35%) right now, having moved the muni money into CDs (short-term) and cash. I was thinking about moving to 33% stock, 18% CDs and nearly all the rest in corporate and treasury bonds. Just want to be clear on one thing: corporate bonds are not risk free as...
by Pikel
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Furlough
Replies: 11
Views: 1149

Re: Possible Furlough

What if she has a hard time finding her way back into the workforce? I'd be careful here. Is this really a concern for an RN? Will people stop needing operations after the pandemic, or will the nursing labor shortage go away? Would anyone have thought a pandemic would cause massive healthcare layof...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 14079

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

I was curious a week or two ago, Ray predicted depressions in 82, 92, several times said a "30-50%" chance during/after the tech crash around 03, in 2009 he called the financial crisis a "d-process," several times in 2016-2018, and now is calling current situation a depression.
by Pikel
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4644

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

ochotona wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:08 am I am a "quant". I use rules-based, back-tested quantitative methods

I buy them from a newsletter

Truly, this is actual madness.
by Pikel
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2778138

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

awval999 wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:31 am
the things I fear that come from this cannot be posted on Bogleheads.
This risk always exists. You have a brief window to re-evaluate your risk tolerance and re-invest in your future. Your old strategy was too greedy.

You have to invest when terrified.
by Pikel
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VGT vs VTI
Replies: 43
Views: 4822

Re: VGT vs VTI

The Nasdaq 100 of today is a lot different than index of 20 years ago.

I'd say it is more like a modern day blue chip, with lower expected returns and lower expected risk. Also no exposure (aside from tendrils) to the financial industry.
by Pikel
Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A tale of three regrets
Replies: 52
Views: 7849

Re: A tale of three regrets

The long term difference between 60/40 and 50/50 is noise.

What you don't see right now are the many many people that timed their way into a 100% cash position. The long term difference in that strategy is much, much more than noise.
by Pikel
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Fell Today
Replies: 143
Views: 13245

Re: BND Fell Today

Here's the screen cap by the way.

87.20 -> 83.55 -> $86.36 from 4PM to 5PM.

Image
by Pikel
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Fell Today
Replies: 143
Views: 13245

Re: BND Fell Today

Can anyone explain why yahoo and google show BND dropping -4.19% after hours today? Nasdaq.com shows some crazy spiking at close but no after hours trading. I'm seeing -0.96% after hours on both. VOO is up a touch after hours and I'd expect it to move on something major. Absent a very clear event, ...
by Pikel
Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Fell Today
Replies: 143
Views: 13245

Re: BND Fell Today

Can anyone explain why yahoo and google show BND dropping -4.19% after hours today?

Nasdaq.com shows some crazy spiking at close but no after hours trading.
by Pikel
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if one rebalanced on March 16, the RBD?
Replies: 120
Views: 9436

Re: What if one rebalanced on March 16, the RBD?

I think it's critical to stick to your plan, but I also am not sure how much we can learn from looking at returns/rebalancing strategy over a 3 week period. Some of my long term takeaways from March will probably be; Volatility can be horrific, it was hard to TLH or rebalance when between the time y...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 8236

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

From what I can find, Ray also predicted depressions in 82 and 92.

I also can't help but question the altruism of a guy that charges 2-4% of AUM plus 20%+ of all growth. It's like the embodiment of what Bogle warns about.
by Pikel
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 3056

Re: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.

KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:40 pm
5% Gold = real physical gold in your hand or pretend claim on the Gold?
lol
by Pikel
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March
Replies: 66
Views: 6881

Re: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March

On the contrary.... it wasn't that expensive when volatility was low for years. Yes, buying insurance after your house fire has started is going to be pricey. Homeowners insurance targets targets around 25% loss ratio. Over your lifetime you are expected to pay 4x your losses to avoid catastrophic ...
by Pikel
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March
Replies: 66
Views: 6881

Re: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March

Just remember that ALL insurance costs significantly MORE than expected losses. Auto insurance - which is non-volatile - targets around a 65-70% loss ratio. In other words, if the auto insurer thinks you will cost them $1000 a year they are going to charge you over $1400 a year. This same principle ...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks
Replies: 16
Views: 1138

Re: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks

In reverse order.... Pikel, I would start out that your last paragraph is congruent with what I am saying. If you are a insider like a CEO you have to declare beforehand any stock transactions (buying, selling exercising) and must be exercised by a 3rd party to prevent insider trading. Buybacks mus...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks
Replies: 16
Views: 1138

Re: Prospects for S&P 500 Share Buybacks

Blase. I know enough financial accounting to know that there is no first-order technical difference between buybacks and dividends. I also know that many investors and Bogleheads can't wrap head around this. It comes from "cognitive ease", it is just easier to think about dividends than stock-buyba...
by Pikel
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9799

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

My 2 cents is that broad generalizations may be statistically correct, but they are worthless to individuals. People need to be able to quantify their expected savings rate, financial goals, risk tolerance, and expected stock and bond returns. I will say it's interesting that a lot of people advocat...
by Pikel
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?
Replies: 177
Views: 12590

Re: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?

The tax deferral is really important to consider. Inflation would have to go sky high for anything with a coupon to exceed 3.5% tax deferred. If we make up some scenario where the world pulls back on globalization after covid, and inflation does take hold in the next 5 years, it's not the end of the...
by Pikel
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77707

Re: Has Covid-19 changed you?

I'll tell you, as a 35 y/o millennial: High school was 9/11. First professional job search after college was during the great recession. Now with a young family, a global pandemic. My generation has definitely seen a lot of bad stuff at this point. I also live out in the middle of nowhere, upstate N...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?
Replies: 42
Views: 3086

Re: Which fixed income Bond Fund would be best to use right now?

Look at what Larry Swedroe has written on corporate bonds vs treasuries. You can get better yield with CDs, I & EE Bonds. I & EE Bonds are tax deferred. EE Bonds can be used to build an annuity starting 20 yrs from now. Major problem with many is not understanding that corporate bonds are a risky as...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4962

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

So very important to note that in real life everyone is either accumulating or withdrawing. If you were accumulating over this time period, 100% bond was the worst thing you could do. If you were an accumulator with a 40/60 allocation, you really would have done wonderfully. And I do think that spea...
by Pikel
Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We've decided to thank US Businesses by investing 100% Domestic
Replies: 21
Views: 1648

Re: We've decided to thank US Businesses by investing 100% Domestic

Been following Mohamed El-Erian for some time, he's been ahead of the curve on this crisis. "sell high-yield to buy investment grade and if you are heavily exposed to non-US markets, “come back to the U.S. … I am really worried about what’s going to happen to certain emerging economies.”" He also po...
by Pikel
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash
Replies: 76
Views: 5025

Re: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash

I dont think the lump sum research applies to times as volatile as these That is exactly why that paper is a hot, steaming, pile of ____. It does not explain the fat tail risk at all. A life changing lump sum should never be put on a roulette wheel and that Vanguard paper mislead a lot of people.
by Pikel
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash
Replies: 76
Views: 5025

Re: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash

BruhDLT wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:08 am

Even though statistics show that lump sum is most of the time the best way to go, I think my stomach can't handle it. Maybe something in between like lump sum half of it and DCA the other half.
Just make sure you can stick to your plan. There is going to be a lot of bad news for awhile.
by Pikel
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash
Replies: 76
Views: 5025

Re: Advice for a 26 year old with $400k cash

For DCA vs lump sum consider two extreme scenarios: You lump sum today, market drops 50% by next week. You DCA over 18 months, the market and the world goes back to normal tomorrow and you miss out on buying low. Which one feels worse? Also remember that a 26 year old with 400k is probably more comp...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3177

Re: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?

Pikel, My mistake. But, VFIUX (4.38%) beat VTSAX (-8.23%) from 1/1/2020 to 3/31/2020 -> 3 months period. And, my 5/25 rebalancing allowed me to capture the profit. KlangFool That is an important point. In that 20 yr 3 month period, a 60/40 allocation (with annual rebalancing) outperformed both 0/10...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3177

Re: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?

MikeG62, And, why would that matters? I am building a portfolio. It is the portfolio return that matters to me. Over the 20 years, there will be multiple crises like this one. And, when that happened, the total US stock market will crash and VFIUX will do well. My rebalancing will let me "buy low a...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3177

Re: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?

$1 invested 1/1/2000 to 3/31/2020 in Vanguard int. term treasuries outperformed Vanguard total US stock market.

Pretty sobering.
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard CA tax exempt mm vmsxx yielding 3.2%
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: vanguard CA tax exempt mm vmsxx yielding 3.2%

On the one hand I would not touch this because municipalities being forced to issue short term debt at these rates means they are desperate. On the other hand the fed has been explicit in saying it will 'do whatever it takes' to prevent these types of issues. I guess this could be a type of arbitrag...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard CA tax exempt mm vmsxx yielding 3.2%
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: vanguard CA tax exempt mm vmsxx yielding 3.2%

Wow that is really weird.

Fed liquidity not reaching this or what?

39 day avg maturity and yielding 3.2%, some serious storm clouds...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 55969

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

P&C Insurance - Actuary This is probably one of the safest professions in the country right now. If you have high school aged kids with a strong math aptitude they could start taking exams now. It's excruciating, but I would bribe my kids to start taking these if they were 15-16 years old. First 5 ...
by Pikel
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 55969

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

P&C Insurance - Actuary This is probably one of the safest professions in the country right now. If you have high school aged kids with a strong math aptitude they could start taking exams now. It's excruciating, but I would bribe my kids to start taking these if they were 15-16 years old. First 5 e...
by Pikel
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7906

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

L shaped if total shut down for more than a month
U shaped if we adopt a Taiwan/Hong Kong/South Korea model
V shaped if there is a vaccine available within 2-3 weeks (0% chance)
by Pikel
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Approaching Inheritance from Parents
Replies: 26
Views: 2095

Re: Help with Approaching Inheritance from Parents

This seems like an unhealthy thought process to me. I'm 35 and I hope to leave my children something some day, but if they use our frugality as cause to leverage themselves into debt waiting for us to die, I would be really disappointed in them.
by Pikel
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?
Replies: 26
Views: 1664

Re: Should I have stuck with the Target 2045 fund?

Benjamin Graham and John Bogle both advocated for 50/50 with a range between 75/25 and 25/75 depending on risk tolerance. Lots of people are predicting interest rates staying low, or that if they go up you're "buying high." Lots of people also assuming equity growth is going to be 7,8,9,10% over the...
by Pikel
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Concerns with Index funds (VTSAX, VOO, QQQ, etc.)
Replies: 38
Views: 11232

Re: Concerns with Index funds (VTSAX, VOO, QQQ, etc.)

Not trying to change anyone's mind, VTI all the way.

I own some QQQ though. My rational doesn't have to do with expected returns, but the fund is overweight in companies with strong balance sheets and is underweight in financial corporation exposure. High level, i like that a lot.
by Pikel
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Totally confused about fixed-income.
Replies: 19
Views: 2162

Re: Totally confused about fixed-income.

CDs, I and EE Bonds is the trifecta until your net worth becomes so high that a married couple contributing 40k a year to I & EE bonds is noise and FDIC/NCUA insurance of 500k means having to find many banks/credit unions. I have said this before but a flaw in boglehead mantra is "equity/bond" shoul...
by Pikel
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64914

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I think we're just getting started. I don't see how this sky high unemployment will be unwound overnight.

Also think this could be a turning point for 'speculative yield' that Jack Bogle talks about. Easily could end up with pessimism suppressing equity returns over the next 10 years.
by Pikel
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 197748

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting. It seems that maybe this thing has been around before we started testing for it. Who would have thought? I don't know. I do know that we should be asking questions rather than just taking "expert" opinion at face value. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b He...
by Pikel
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 197748

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting. It seems that maybe this thing has been around before we started testing for it. Who would have thought? I don't know. I do know that we should be asking questions rather than just taking "expert" opinion at face value. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b He...
by Pikel
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course
Replies: 65
Views: 3827

Re: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course

I was just starting my career during the financial crisis. So I do know what it's like for it to be very difficult to find a job. This is the first test with a lot of skin in the game. We have a historically normal AA, but for modern times very conservative. Glad for that. If supply chains collapse ...