Search found 233 matches

by Financologist
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I preserve what I have? Feeling jittery - please review portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3570

Re: How do I preserve what I have? Feeling jittery - please review portfolio?

The only way to absolutely preserve what you have is to go to 100% cash. However over time that position will generally erode due to inflation. Otherwise if you've got the jitters change your asset allocation. Many people can be comfortable with 60/40 stocks/bonds or even 50/50. OP, it depends on y...
by Financologist
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 168
Views: 16455

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

I'm 32 working for a Megacorp and I'm feeling burned out. Kind of exhausted from all the smoke and mirrors... sleight of hand actions. I've thought of getting a new job, but fear of the unknown and current compensation keeps me here. Then I have thoughts that I should be grateful to have a job. How...
by Financologist
Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

In conclusion, performance chasing or any other market timing activity that doesn't shift overall market exposure shouldn't change your odds of under/over performing the relevant index. You are speaking strictly from the financial theory perspective and ignoring human behavior. Chasing performance ...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13898

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Bonds have yields near zero. Why would I want to hold any? I'm going all in in equities until people panic and sell again. I did buy a little gold You don't want to hold bonds due to low yield.. but you do want to hold gold.. interested in your rationale considering gold's perpetual yield of 0%
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic
Replies: 35
Views: 2255

Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

Right: focused on maximizing earnings at work

Wrong: overbought rice, beans and canned tuna
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13898

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

I've always market timed and always will. When I'm in the market for a car, I buy when it's cheaper. When I'm in the market for just about any large purchase, I look for the best price and often wait if necessary. Unfortunately with stocks, the big sales tend to be a decade apart so usually I have ...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Some people seem to think that chasing performance is a bad strategy. If that were true, then selling those "chased" stocks/sectors/countries immediately must be a good strategy. It's not. This is a counterfactual inference, i.e. a logically correct inference from an incorrect premise. You are impl...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

At the end of the day if you are only hopping back and forth across different points of the efficient frontier it would seem that no strategy is more or less likely to produce better or worse risk adjusted outcomes. Even if performance chasing did nothing more than move "back and forth across diffe...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

At the end of the day if you are only hopping back and forth across different points of the efficient frontier it would seem that no strategy is more or less likely to produce better or worse risk adjusted outcomes. If you want evidence, start by reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Mal...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

At the end of the day if you are only hopping back and forth across different points of the efficient frontier it would seem that no strategy is more or less likely to produce better or worse risk adjusted outcomes. If you want evidence, start by reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malk...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Decades of research and you decide to post as your representative an article that argues against your position? As I said, the evidence is voluminous and readily searchable. Some highlights: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGQFP.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2168768 http://w...
by Financologist
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Decades of research and you decide to post as your representative an article that argues against your position? As I said, the evidence is voluminous and readily searchable. Some highlights: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGQFP.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2168768 http://w...
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

If it's possible to reliably underperform the market (while staying fully invested as OP suggests), why isn't it possible to reliably beat the market? Depending on how you implement "performance chasing," it can be synonymous with momentum investing. Also, that article leaves until the very end and...
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

langlands wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:47 pm If it's possible to reliably underperform the market (while staying fully invested as OP suggests), why isn't it possible to reliably beat the market?
Depending on how you implement "performance chasing," it can be synonymous with momentum investing.
+1
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

Dontridetheindexdown wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:31 pm Important question - where did you invest the proceeds?
Precisely.. or asked another way, who did you listen to next?
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8184

Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Some people seem to think that chasing performance is a bad strategy. If that were true, then selling those "chased" stocks/sectors/countries immediately must be a good strategy. It's not. It shouldn't matter whether an investor is chasing performance, buying "deep value" or none of the above as lon...
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

I've already given myself a market timing lecture Sorry it didn't help. Also - sounds like you are suffering from FOMO upon hearing your friends talk about their winners (note that it's rare they will admit to their losers). Address any behavioral issues and Stay the Course. That's my advise. No fo...
by Financologist
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

I've already given myself a market timing lecture Sorry it didn't help. Also - sounds like you are suffering from FOMO upon hearing your friends talk about their winners (note that it's rare they will admit to their losers). Address any behavioral issues and Stay the Course. That's my advise. No fo...
by Financologist
Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

Is there any evidence that "contrarian bets" pay off any better or worse than the whole market? Efficient market hypothesis would predict otherwise. There is plenty of evidence that contrarian bets pay off sometimes. Could you provide links to this evidence? And, critically, can you distinguish in ...
by Financologist
Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

Afty wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:55 pm Is there any evidence that "contrarian bets" pay off any better or worse than the whole market? Efficient market hypothesis would predict otherwise.
There is plenty of evidence that contrarian bets pay off sometimes.
by Financologist
Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

I made my "contrarian move" this afternoon. Reduced my govt bond holdings by 10% (not percentage points of overall allocation) and allocated three-quarters of the proceeds to a broad Market International Index Fund and 1/4 to a US small cap index. This Loosely restores intended allocations whereas p...
by Financologist
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Re: Easy money baby!

Looking for others to give you advice on making a "contrarian bet", is the type of ironic humor I get a kick out of :D I'm not necessarily opposed to making a bet/taking a gamble, but when you do, expect a gamblers outcome. JoMoney, thanks for the laugh. If there are lots of responses , perhaps I'l...
by Financologist
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6970

Easy money baby!

Between Tesla, Amazon, Zoom and even Kodak... sensational headlines of soaring issues seem to be growing in frequency. Correspondingly, friends and acquaintances of all walks are making "investments" in the stock du jour. It's ground hogs day. I try to stay the course but from time to time am tempte...
by Financologist
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me break my addiction to watching the Market / Worrying
Replies: 52
Views: 3706

Re: Help me break my addiction to watching the Market / Worrying

Take control. Allow yourself one market gander per day and decide the time in advance. During the height of volatility a few months ago I decided I would not be looking at the market during trading hours. Instead I allowed myself one look after the market closed every day. It saved me a lot of turbu...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13898

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Op It is my money I do whatever I want to do with it, if I lose it no one to blame but myself, I was an investor before BH existed, done almost everything and sometimes I can time the market. Sometimes not so be it. Everyone has these principles and are so rigid and cultist here. It is ridiculous. ...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13898

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

well then.... luckily I had some stops in place which all executed on Monday. I'm now sitting on about 25% cash, which puts me at ease despite the fact that I still have significant exposure. Tomorrow should be very interesting, I wouldn't be surprised to see another massive down day because of the...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor (Morgan Stanley) wants to end relationship with ("fire") my grandfather
Replies: 62
Views: 6902

Re: Financial Advisor (Morgan Stanley) wants to end relationship with ("fire") my grandfather

This is a blessing. Your grandfather did not want to leave Morgan Stanley but now he must.

Good luck
by Financologist
Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with $150K Bonus?
Replies: 31
Views: 3540

Re: What to do with $150K Bonus?

Normally my answer would be to compromise by meeting in the middle. But in this case I'm compelled to take a position on the mortgage. Pay it off right now. Then top off the 529 accounts. This checks one of the boxes for your life goals and at the same time does not entirely compromise liquidity sin...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I quit high paying job?
Replies: 144
Views: 17266

Re: Should I quit high paying job?

Sorry you find yourself in this position. You must find your power. Abusive relationships eat away at your soul because you can't be yourself in them. Your power: your skills and the opportunities they afford you. Your kindness and your strength to stand up for yourself. If I were in this position I...
by Financologist
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Locking in gains
Replies: 21
Views: 2864

Re: Locking in gains

Nothing is free - opportunity has a cost. Imagine there are 3 stocks in the world. 1. McDonald's 2. Tesla 3. General Electric So, you buy GE in 2015 with all your money and wait for it to double so you can own half the shares "for free" and use sale proceeds to get into the next hot thing. You will ...
by Financologist
Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I become a Professional Gambler?
Replies: 84
Views: 8381

Re: Should I become a Professional Gambler?

I play hold'em a couple times a year; have for decades. In fact when I first started playing hold'em was the rare game spread - 7-card stud was the common game. I enjoy it, great fun. I'm quite good at it, and have read plenty of strategy and other ancillary things like bankroll management, etc. Th...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 5864

Re: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?

Massive government stimulus and the resulting money supply bloat and plummeting interest rates are examples of how governments and economies could respond to crisis. Consumer demand and public health outcomes are very difficult to guess at. The evolution of technologies and and their use by institut...
by Financologist
Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $20,000 windfall- Help!
Replies: 67
Views: 4275

Re: $20,000 windfall- Help!

Let your wife know exactly what you want to do with the money. Then let her decide.
by Financologist
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you TLH/Rebalance?
Replies: 7
Views: 465

Re: How often do you TLH/Rebalance?

Rebalancing is very simple for me through my brokerage account. So I try to do it if my allocations get out of whack by one percentage point. Note this is not time-based (every month/quarter/year).
by Financologist
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t this a fantastic time to buy what we believe in?
Replies: 55
Views: 5240

Re: Isn’t this a fantastic time to buy what we believe in?

OP, what you are describing is a market timing scheme. Did you wait for this dip? If you did, since when did you have the money to invest? What has been the market return been since the moment you began holding this money? Would you have gotten a better return had you invested the $ as soon as you g...
by Financologist
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Work Less Hours to Be More Productive
Replies: 7
Views: 1184

Re: Work Less Hours to Be More Productive

Every person has a unique curve. An extreme example would be a truck driver. After 8 hours he gets tired and needs a break. If he pushes himself to 11 or 12 hours the need to rest becomes urgent. At 14 hours or more a disastrous outcome becomes more and more likely. Same goes for anyone who is worki...
by Financologist
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield
Replies: 19
Views: 2101

Re: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield

I was reviewing my finances recently and was shocked to realize how close the yield on these two investments I own is: Vanguard Prime Money Market : Yielding 1.61% Vanguard Total Bond Market : Yielding 2.00% My surprise at the yield similarity stems from this: my understanding is that the Bond fund...
by Financologist
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
Replies: 50
Views: 6060

Re: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?

Thesaints wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:37 pm
Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
With, or without accounting for inflation ?
I was only looking at total lifetime medicare earnings on my SS statement vs. current net worth. No adjustment for inflation.
by Financologist
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
Replies: 50
Views: 6060

Re: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?

I’m at 53% and I’m in my mid-40s. I’ll keep plugging away. I had to go run some numbers and Im probably barely worth 35% of lifetime earnings. also mid-40s. And that's not even factoring time value of money or figuring out hte net after tax value of my 401k. Those 1997 income dollars are worth a lo...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
Replies: 50
Views: 6060

Re: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?

vipertom1970 wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:21 pm my NW is currently 3.25x my lifetime earnings and it took me 25 years.
Wow! Interested in your savings rate, family status, position in Apple and Netflix etc.. if you care to share. Also, curious whether you had an unusual earnings sequence (i.e., windfall early on).
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?
Replies: 155
Views: 15172

Re: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?

Tomorrow is an up day if the following days and weeks are followed by more declines. So no, I will not be doing anything out of the ordinary tomorrow.

In a parallel universe, however, I'm shorting the market right now. In that world I'm a market-timer.

Financologist
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Price impact of exercising a significant number of options
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: Price impact of exercising a significant number of options

You would probably need an idea of what open buy orders look like at the time you attempt to sell. This is one of those cases where you might consider seeking input from your brokerage. Is your restricted period expiring at the same time as other executives'? In other words will there be other stock...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?
Replies: 50
Views: 6060

Net worth approaching lifetime earnings. How many years did it take?

I was reviewing my social security earnings record and realized that my net worth is almost equal to my lifetime earnings. I've saved and invested consistently between 15-40% of gross earnings for most of the near-21 years of my working life. Even as a finance professional, it amazes me that one can...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What To Do? Home Purchase
Replies: 15
Views: 1833

Re: What To Do? Home Purchase

I would wait on a few years of that income to accumulate in my accounts after student debt is paid off. Starting in 18 months, I would keep my eyes peeled for the perfect home. And if I were to find it I would jump on it. But I would not be in any rush. If mortgage rates increase there could be a de...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: Social Security Experts **question**
Replies: 33
Views: 3337

Re: Attn: Social Security Experts **question**

Sounds like you're past the final bend point ($0.15 on the dollar impact to PIA).

How the Social Security Benefits Calculation Works

https://www.thebalance.com/social-secur ... de-2388927
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Buyout Rollover, tax penalty?
Replies: 5
Views: 400

Re: Pension Buyout Rollover, tax penalty?

Do you plan on a backdoor Roth IRA conversion? If yes what are your next steps to ensure you're not hit by the pro rata rule? I have a similar opportunity with a former employer and would like to understand how to handle this. From what I understand I would first need to have the pension buyout roll...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest -- worried about market timing and not market timing
Replies: 17
Views: 1050

Re: When to invest -- worried about market timing and not market timing

If you get anxious about things that happen in the world you should re-examine your overall allocation. Whatever you decide is appropriate based on your tolerance for risk and investment objectives should guide your next steps on Monday.

Good luck
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stocks... would you?
Replies: 125
Views: 8991

Re: Single stocks... would you?

Set up a contest and see whose portfolio performs better against agreed upon metrics over agreed upon periods. I guarantee one of you will do better than the other... Truth is that an individual stock investor who's well diversified could do a bit better than the index investor. More opportunities ...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Here is how to tell a bull market is coming" wolf, wolf, wolf...
Replies: 15
Views: 2698

Re: "Here is how to tell a bull market is coming" wolf, wolf, wolf...

No one outside of the bank has any means of monitoring all of these indicators simultaneously in real time. So what's the point? Oh yeah.. and I don't believe in rules developed based on back testing unless there is a case for the fact set being predictive. In other words.. a set of conditions that ...
by Financologist
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vancouver area trip in Aug - 5 nights
Replies: 20
Views: 1979

Re: Vancouver area trip in Aug - 5 nights

Indian food.. Visit Vij's. I love Indian food to the point I am sometimes tempted to take a weekend trip to London the get my fix. Vij's is excellent and has a nice'ish ambiance that I quite like. Stanley Park.. yes. the few times I traveled to Vancouver for work, I stayed at The Westin Bayshore, Va...