Smoke & Mirrors
LONG: MSFT
SHORT: TSLA
Search found 58 matches
- Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
- Replies: 269
- Views: 31542
- Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
- Replies: 664
- Views: 34537
- Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:07 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- Replies: 2109
- Views: 394742
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Go to the fund page:
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments ... -fund/inst
And then click on the "Historical Prices" link.
In 2020 there were 4 dividend distributions and 1 cap gains distribution
- Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:19 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- Replies: 2109
- Views: 394742
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
That may explain the Cap Gains distribution, but not the high Dividend distribution?
- Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:11 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- Replies: 2109
- Views: 394742
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Basic question... why are the dividend distributions of PSLDX so high?
- Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
- Replies: 253
- Views: 39408
Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Wonder what's going to happen to all these credits that are set to expire at the end of the year. I bet many will remain unused. Hoping that the expiration date would be extended into next year.
- Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
- Replies: 14356
- Views: 1988831
- Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
- Replies: 14356
- Views: 1988831
- Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:02 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: new VG dashboard [New Vanguard home page]
- Replies: 50
- Views: 4393
Re: new VG dashboard [New Vanguard home page]
I like the classic look.
Don't want to go back to the new look.
Don't want to go back to the new look.
- Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- Replies: 2109
- Views: 394742
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
The average duration of the bond portfolio of PSDLX is likely in the 14-15 year range. This is my estimate based on how well the bond portion tracks BLV and VWESX. To offset this long duration, you could consider having other bond holdings in your portfolio tilted towards lower duration.
- Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:24 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Ally 1.9% or Vanguard Treasury MM 1.51%? I live in CA
- Replies: 36
- Views: 4325
Re: Ally 1.9% or Vanguard Treasury MM 1.51%? I live in CA
As the title said... I am at 9.3% tax bracket in CA. Which one will give better interest after tax? Can anyone here show me the calculation? Let's ignore federal tax, because you'd pay it on either investment. 100% - 9.3% = 90.7% (or 0.907): This is the proportion of the Ally CD interest you get to keep after California tax. 0.907 x 1.9% = 1.72%: This is the post-California annualized yield for the Ally CD, so it's a better deal than the Treasury MM fund. So while this is not incorrect - the difference may actually be smaller than it seems, when you take Federal Tax into account. Take the following high-income example: - Federal Tax Bracket: 35% - Net Investment Tax: 3.8% - CA Tax Bracket: 9.3% For Ally: Effective tax bracket (add all the ...
- Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:43 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- Replies: 2109
- Views: 394742
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
My tax-advantaged accounts are 100% PSLDX. This fund makes a lot of sense to me.
I am gradually moving to NTSX in my taxable account.
I am gradually moving to NTSX in my taxable account.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How did you TLH during this correction?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5200
Re: How did you TLH during this correction?
That loss would be allowed - your other holdings don't matter.Momus wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:12 pmThank you.
Another question:
1/1/19 1000 unrealized gain
2/1/19 2000 unrealized loss
2/15/19 1000 unrealized gain
If I sell 2/1/19 at a 2000 tax loss, it's disallowed loss (wash sale) since I have a 2/15/19 position, correct?
You just shouldn't buy a substantially similar security within +/- 30 days of your sale date.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
- Replies: 14356
- Views: 1988831
Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
The leverage resets daily.
Goal is to match 3x on a daily basis.
The goal wasn't met today. Good for long positions.
Monday it starts all over again.
Goal is to match 3x on a daily basis.
The goal wasn't met today. Good for long positions.
Monday it starts all over again.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How did you TLH during this correction?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5200
Re: How did you TLH during this correction?
YES, as long as you don't buy a substantially similar security in the next 30 days.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How did you TLH during this correction?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5200
Re: How did you TLH during this correction?
Yes, I did. I actually ended up being out of the market for a day (for this holding), but it worked out because the market kept going down.SciurusVulgaris wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:39 pm Did you go from a mutual fund to an ETF? I haven't done that myself, I wasn't sure if the settlement would come in quickly enough for me to buy in before the next day.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How did you TLH during this correction?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5200
Re: How did you TLH during this correction?
SPTM... interesting.. just checked PV.. not to my liking as far as match with VTI.FoolMeOnce wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:20 pm VTI to SPTM. But I should've waited longer, I guess. What's a third partner that isn't substantially similar but satisfies a total US equities allocation? (Considering going to NTSX Wisdom Tree 90/60, I've been following that discussion...).
ITOT and SCHB are a good match. Would also prefer VOO, VV and SCHX over SPTM.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1676
Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Yes, we should absolutely expect better. Today's experience is unacceptable.
The lingering issues that I was having with Cost Basis not showing were resolved by clearing the Browser Cache, as recommended by Vanguard on Twitter.
The lingering issues that I was having with Cost Basis not showing were resolved by clearing the Browser Cache, as recommended by Vanguard on Twitter.
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1676
Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Fortunately all the TLH that I did this week was at Merrill Edge - did not have any issues.
(Not that I am recommending ME - they have other issues )
(Not that I am recommending ME - they have other issues )
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1676
Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
And still not working for me
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1676
Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Totally agree, this is simply unacceptable
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How did you TLH during this correction?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5200
How did you TLH during this correction?
I have been "serial-TLH-ing" for the past few days.
VTSAX -> ITOT -> SCHB -> VV
Next up if needed: SCHX
Avoiding VOO for wash-sale reasons.
What have you done this week?
VTSAX -> ITOT -> SCHB -> VV
Next up if needed: SCHX
Avoiding VOO for wash-sale reasons.
What have you done this week?
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:47 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
- Replies: 23
- Views: 1676
Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Vanguard's web site is getting increasingly pathetic.
(Most of my investments are still at Vanguard... for how long?).
Now not seeing any Cost Basis info for any of my accounts:
"Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later."
At this point Vanguard should be ranked close to the bottom for online account access.
(Most of my investments are still at Vanguard... for how long?).
Now not seeing any Cost Basis info for any of my accounts:
"Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later."
At this point Vanguard should be ranked close to the bottom for online account access.
- Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Allan Roth: The Myth of Overdiversification
- Replies: 149
- Views: 12290
Re: Allan Roth: The Myth of Overdiversification
I don't understand this statement from the article:
"Tracking error averages 8.2% with 30 stocks and 1.8% with 500 stocks."
The tracking error of Large Cap vs Total Market has been way smaller than 1.8%.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
"Tracking error averages 8.2% with 30 stocks and 1.8% with 500 stocks."
The tracking error of Large Cap vs Total Market has been way smaller than 1.8%.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
- Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Approximating Vanguard Total Stock Market Using Other Vanguard Funds in My 401(k)?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 493
- Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
- Replies: 857
- Views: 158024
Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
It isn't the first time (though I have to say there's always a first time for everything). See the PIMCO StocksPlus funds, e.g. PSLDX - they've been around since 2007. Admittendly the PIMCO funds do things differently (Bonds + Stock Futures). The concept of leveraging up the Security Market Line comes from basic Finance Theory.corp_sharecropper wrote: ↑Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:34 pm "ok, so you're telling me in all the creativity you see on Wall Street, no one has thought of this before now and securitized it?"
- Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Munis vs Swensen-style Treasuries in taxable account?
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1571
Re: Munis vs Swensen-style Treasuries in taxable account?
+1 to VCADX and also some VCLAX (CA Long Term Muni)
- Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
- Replies: 259
- Views: 39263
Re: What to pair with NTSX?
I think vs a Total Market fund that NTSX is a good way to go for an accumulator. Probably not the best idea for wealth preservation. Not seeing the reasoning for that... take a look at these portfolios: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=40&symbol2=VBMFX&allocation2_1=60&symbol3=VFINX&allocation3_2=40&a...
- Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
- Replies: 259
- Views: 39263
Re: What to pair with NTSX?
Pulled the trigger today on this. Only one of my Roth IRA's (< 5% of total net worth... the majority still in 55/45 boglehead-style portfolio, with a few other exceptions for my entertainment and/or education). 70% NTSX 20% Vanguard Long-Term Treasuries ETF 10% Vanguard Real Estate ETF https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=NTSX&allocation1_1...
- Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:55 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
- Replies: 259
- Views: 39263
Re: What to pair with NTSX?
There's nothing magic happening here, on its own NTSX is unquestionably more risky than a 60/40 portfolio. It's similar in the sense that it should have roughly the same Sharpe ratio, but it has 1.5x the risk and return. That's what I was missing. The way I read the above, the risk and return of the fund was basically the same as the risk and return of a 60/40 portfolio, so I couldn't see the point. Added return with more risk makes sense. Thanks. I'm not convinced that NTSX merely offers 50% more risk and return than a 60/40 portfolio. If it did, then the Sharpe ratio should be about the same for both. But over the admittedly brief history of NTSX, that hasn't been the case. The Sharpe ratio for NTSX since September of 2017 was .78, where...
- Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What is the most aggressive Boglehead allocation for a Roth IRA?
- Replies: 38
- Views: 4890
- Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:21 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Low cost index funds in India
- Replies: 4
- Views: 811
Re: Low cost index funds in India
There is one I know of, though never invested myself:
https://www.sbimf.com/en-us/other-schem ... index-fund
https://www.sbimf.com/en-us/other-schem ... index-fund
- Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I bother with tax exempt bond
- Replies: 22
- Views: 4384
Re: Should I bother with tax exempt bond
I too have been comparing VWIUX, VWLUX and VTEB.
Currently leaning towads VTEB... not seeing any downside.
Currently leaning towads VTEB... not seeing any downside.
- Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:24 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I refinance mortgage? Or stick with existing loan?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 418
Re: Should I refinance mortgage? Or stick with existing loan?
I've had 5/1 ARMs for the vast majority of the last 20 years of home ownership.
Whenever rates fell, I was able to refi to yet another 5/1 ARM.
We've lived in our current home for almost 15 years.
But the past is no indication of the future...
Whenever rates fell, I was able to refi to yet another 5/1 ARM.
We've lived in our current home for almost 15 years.
But the past is no indication of the future...
- Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mortgage Payoff vs Bonds
- Replies: 10
- Views: 783
Re: Mortgage Payoff vs Bonds
I don't think about the mortgage as a negative bond. I prefer to think about it as a means to obtain overall leverage in the portfolio. I feel comfortable with a small amount of such leverage.
- Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mortgage Payoff vs Bonds
- Replies: 10
- Views: 783
Re: Mortgage Payoff vs Bonds
This depends so much on your overall financial situation and comfort level. My own personal situation/preference - have a new 5/1 ARM at 2.625%. I prefer to invest in a 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio instead of paying off the mortgage.Hogan773 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:29 pmSo just so I understand the analysis beyond the gut feel, is this basically saying that if my mortgage has 5 years duration, then by paying it off it is like buying a 5yr duration risk free bond that earns 2.75%? So if I can earn more than that on intermediate bonds, then don't pay it off? I guess the rub is that even if the Intermediate fund was returning more than 2.75% (and it isn't right now) it also isn't risk FREE.Unladen_Swallow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:37 pm Based on the information you provided, I would pay off mortgage. No contest.
- Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Fidelity to Wells Transfer for Better Mortgage Rate
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2429
Re: Fidelity to Wells Transfer for Better Mortgage Rate
I'm doing a similar asset move to Merrill Edge. Had already found the best mortgage deal at BofA and getting an additional 0.25% rate reduction for moving assets to Merrill
- Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:56 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I bother with tax exempt bond
- Replies: 22
- Views: 4384
Re: Should I bother with tax exempt bond
I'm considering VWLUX as well.
Average stated maturity: 16.7 years
Average duration: 6.2 years
Why is there such a large difference between maturity and duration?
Average stated maturity: 16.7 years
Average duration: 6.2 years
Why is there such a large difference between maturity and duration?
- Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:20 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
- Replies: 14356
- Views: 1988831
Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
It is foolhardy to allocate 100% of your portfolio to an experiment
- Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:16 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is there a go-to Muni bond ETF for tax free state?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 836
- Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
- Replies: 652
- Views: 86203
Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
I am concerned about the long duration of the bond portion of NTSX. Given interest rates are currently very low (by historical standards), I would have preferred to own lower-duration bonds. Anyone else concerned about this? By the same token, aren’t you concerned about holding equities at market highs? Timing bonds is as hard, if not harder, than equities. So no, not concerned. The duration of NTSX isn’t very high overall either; TMF at 60% certainly is. "Average effective duration for the fixed-income portion of NTSX will typically be 7–7.5 years" https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/wisdomtree_ntsx_faq.pdf So is 7–7.5 years the actual effective duration, or is it 6x that, so 42-45 years?
- Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:57 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
- Replies: 652
- Views: 86203
Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
I am concerned about the long duration of the bond portion of NTSX. Given interest rates are currently very low (by historical standards), I would have preferred to own lower-duration bonds. Anyone else concerned about this?
- Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
- Replies: 306
- Views: 34926
Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Krazy FUD
- Long: MSFT, NVDA
- Short: TSLA
- Long: MSFT, NVDA
- Short: TSLA
- Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Seeking advice on taxable account for CA high earner
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1216
Re: Seeking advice on taxable account for CA high earner
VCADX would be worth a look in this situation for the Taxable Account.
Duration is about 5 years, and Tax Equivalent Yield would be in the 2.7-2.8% neighborhood.
Duration is about 5 years, and Tax Equivalent Yield would be in the 2.7-2.8% neighborhood.
- Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:49 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
- Replies: 7203
- Views: 1421572
Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Seems limited to the first $10,000 spent?stoptothink wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:23 pm Right now, 3% back (on everything) and 0% interest for the first year with HSBC cash rewards mastercard. Unless I have a compelling reason, almost all spending is going on this card until next December.
- Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:42 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: CD discussion thread
- Replies: 1214
- Views: 189459
Re: Best CD rates thread
Early Withdrawal Penalty seems to be up to 180 days.protagonist wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:48 pm Keesler CU is easy to join if you join the LA or MS Amer. Cancer Society Cancer Action Network with a min.$10 donation.
They are offering a 30 mo step up CD with a cumulative APY of 3.1-3.2% depending on how much you deposit.
The EWP is a maximum of 90 days interest.
I just purchased one...the application is rather long but not difficult. https://www.kfcu.org/
My experience with customer service was positive.
Their rates potentially revise on Wednesdays so if they drop please don't shoot the messenger.
Good luck.
https://www.kfcu.org/media/disclosures/tis.pdf
- Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Keesler CU 3.2% step up 30 mo CD 3.1-3.2%
- Replies: 4
- Views: 857
Re: Keesler CU 3.2% step up 30 mo CD 3.1-3.2%
Early Withdrawal Penalty seems to be up to 180 days.
https://www.kfcu.org/media/disclosures/tis.pdf
https://www.kfcu.org/media/disclosures/tis.pdf
- Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Income Is Too High: Does Non-Deductible IRA make sense
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1112
- Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why lack of bonds in Target Date Funds?
- Replies: 61
- Views: 6416
Re: Why lack of bonds in Target Date Funds?
I stay away from any Balanced Funds - prefer to own Stock and Bonds funds separately, so that they can be located in the proper account - Tax Free, Tax Deferred or Taxable.
- Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:04 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: CD discussion thread
- Replies: 1214
- Views: 189459
Re: Best CD rates thread
Those of you who shop all over the country for the best CD rates, how many different banks/CUs do you typically deal with at any given point in time, and do you close your share accounts once you are “done” with a CD and moved the funds elsewhere? For example, I bought a bunch of PenFed CDs about five years ago during one of their winter promos. The CDs have matured, and the renewal rates didn’t seem great, so I moved funds to my Ally “hub” last year. And now I have orphan share account and wonder if it is worth keeping it alive just in case they become competitive again... I had become a PenFed member many years back to take advantage of their very good 5/5 ARM rates. After I refinanced away from PenFed, I had the Share account sitting wi...