Search found 80 matches

by SemiRetire
Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Venezuelan Investors here?
Replies: 1
Views: 286

Any Venezuelan Investors here?

Was wondering if there are any Venezuelan Investors here, and if so would be interested in hearing any insight about investing in Venezuela from a person who is actually there/was there recently.

Thanks : )
by SemiRetire
Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you mean when you say "risk"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1661

Re: What do you mean when you say "risk"?

“Market risk: The volatility of the markets that we are compensated for holding thanks to the high expected returns. (This is understood to be a short term risk and in the long term, not really a risk at all.” There is a common but significant error in the market risk. There is no guarantee we will ...
by SemiRetire
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it too late to buy Gold?
Replies: 67
Views: 4831

Re: Is it too late to buy Gold?

I have enough stocks, do not want to take more risk, I have enough bonds, do not want to own more at these rates. I also have a lot of money in cash, close to 20% of my portfolio. What to do with it? For months I have been struggling with the idea of buying gold, maybe 5-10% of the portfolio, but I...
by SemiRetire
Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uniswap Bogleheads?
Replies: 16
Views: 1273

Re: Uniswap Bogleheads?

Privacy solved? no, uniswap ethereum based transactions are like bitcoin, pseudoanonymous. A simple p2p USD transaction with 100 dollar bills is more anonymous, no record of it exists. Versus A blockchain bitcoin or ethereum transaction is visible for everyone to see, although no names attached, bu...
by SemiRetire
Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uniswap Bogleheads?
Replies: 16
Views: 1273

Uniswap Bogleheads?

Any Bogleheads on here that have used uniswap? Was wondering what you thought of it? I just used it for the first time and found it remarkable. Uniswap is a computer program that runs on the Ethereum blockchain-which is a worldwide distributed computer system- that is not alterable and that is under...
by SemiRetire
Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newly retired: switch from HSA to traditional health insurance?
Replies: 3
Views: 328

Newly retired: switch from HSA to traditional health insurance?

To begin with I never really put much thought into this except that for the HSA you get the tax benefit and it serves as a triple advantage retirement account and I have maxed out all my retirement account space already. Now I am phasing into retirement, I am no longer maxing out my retirement space...
by SemiRetire
Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do roth withdrawals and increase AGI?
Replies: 12
Views: 1532

Do roth withdrawals and increase AGI?

Say I am married filing jointly. My AGI is 78k. Of which is 10k of long term qualified dividends that I pay zero tax on.

Now say I take out 20k from a Roth IRA.

Do I pay anymore tax?

Thanks
by SemiRetire
Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy gold in a boglehead friendly way
Replies: 51
Views: 4311

Re: How to buy gold in a boglehead friendly way

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... fsymb_bomw

I held GLD but switched to IAU for lower fees.

https://goldcoinbalance.com/

If you want to buy physical.
by SemiRetire
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQ close to a ten year low valuation?
Replies: 20
Views: 2602

Re: VNQ close to a ten year low valuation?

I think "valuation" means P/E, P/B, or something like that, not performance. FFO funds from operations is how one values REITS PE is not really used for REITS valuations How does one compare investing in a REIT index vs stock index? Ah geesh man, I put some time in that years ago, but I n...
by SemiRetire
Fri Aug 14, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet buys gold miner
Replies: 53
Views: 5659

Buffet buys gold miner

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-buffett-just-bet-against-us-berkshire-buys-barrick-gold-dumps-goldman And while he modestly added to his positions in Kroger, Store Cap and Suncor Energy, the only new stock he bought in Q2 was... the world's (formerly biggest) gold miner: Berkshire took a new s...
by SemiRetire
Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQ close to a ten year low valuation?
Replies: 20
Views: 2602

Re: VNQ close to a ten year low valuation?

000 wrote: Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:00 pm I think "valuation" means P/E, P/B, or something like that, not performance.
FFO funds from operations is how one values REITS

PE is not really used for REITS valuations
by SemiRetire
Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver: The Forgotten Precious Metal?
Replies: 88
Views: 5078

Re: Silver: The Forgotten Precious Metal?

Silver is viewed to be largely demonetized relative to its past. This may change. Silver is more volatile than gold. I actually put 3 percent of my portfolio in silver back in feb/March, instead of more gold. It was the only thing around that seemed undervalued without the ability to drop to zero li...
by SemiRetire
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Private equity implied valuation meaning
Replies: 2
Views: 171

Private equity implied valuation meaning

I bought some private equity 25 dollars a share with an implied valuation of 5 billion. I assume that means 25X(#shares outstanding) = 5 billion Recently there was another capital raise. This time it listed implied valuation of 10 billion... I assume my shares were diluted though right? So even if t...
by SemiRetire
Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Defi” Bogleheads?
Replies: 14
Views: 2002

Re: “Defi” Bogleheads?

my head hurts after reading about these (avenomics) and I don't believe I understood a word of it. Is that perhaps the idea? https://aave.com/Aavenomics.pdf if I don't understand something, why would I put my money into it? is it not possible to explain it in simple terms for the layperson? can you...
by SemiRetire
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Defi” Bogleheads?
Replies: 14
Views: 2002

“Defi” Bogleheads?

Please, this is a focused informational request. I know 99.9 percent here are likely wholly not interested, or 100000 percent against and that’s fine. For some sort of debate on the merits, please do your own post. This is mad money topic aimed at likely a very small hopefully finite subset of Bogle...
by SemiRetire
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone study math, physics or science for fun?
Replies: 54
Views: 4212

Re: Anyone study math, physics or science for fun?

I'm curious if there are any Bogleheads who are not in an educational program that enjoy the process of learning mathematics, physics or any types of science for fun? If so, 1) what book(s) are you using to study 2) what topics fascinate you? 3) what motivates you? Quantum mechanics. Book titles ar...
by SemiRetire
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 6122

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

My current allocation is 60% equities (40% US / 20% INTL) 35% Bonds (MUNI / BND) 5% REIT My rebalance "band" is telling me to add more to REIT. However looking at the Covid impact on commercial real estate, I'm wondering if I should shrink my current REIT allocation smaller. I'm not askin...
by SemiRetire
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4663

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

Gold is a money that if you hold it directly, has no counterparty risk. Gold has low correlation with stocks and bonds, so as part of a rebalanced portfolio, can lower sharpe ratio. Gold tends to maintain its worth, say in Weimar Republic, when everything else is falling to pieces. If the above do n...
by SemiRetire
Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to monitor the Fed's actions & invest to protect against future possible inflation?
Replies: 56
Views: 3914

Re: How to monitor the Fed's actions & invest to protect against future possible inflation?

Gold is a good hedge against currency debasement, not inflation per se. Inflation is a combination of velocity of money and money supply. Foreign stocks good hedge against US inflation and loss of currency reserve status versus US stock. Land ownership is a hedge against inflation TIPS are a new pro...
by SemiRetire
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historically what has happened with capital gains tax changes?
Replies: 14
Views: 1524

Re: Historically what has happened with capital gains tax changes?

The law will be specific about the date, but typically tax changes are in effect starting January 1 of a particular year. Do you have a specific scenario you're concerned about? Historically, given the Jan 1 date, has the Jan 1 date been retroactive or in the next tax year? No specific scenario, ju...
by SemiRetire
Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historically what has happened with capital gains tax changes?
Replies: 14
Views: 1524

Historically what has happened with capital gains tax changes?

Historically what has happened with long term capital gains tax changes in the US did they take place immediately, retroactively, or with a delay until they took effect? Specifically say in the past the long term capital gains rate was 10 percent or whatever and was increased to 15 percent, was tha...
by SemiRetire
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard foreign stock Fund behavior if USD drops 50 percent
Replies: 3
Views: 564

Vanguard foreign stock Fund behavior if USD drops 50 percent

Want to check if I have this qualitatively right: If USD/Euro ratio drops in half and stays there for a year. One would expect VGK European vanguard stock ETF to roughly double in prices quoted in USD, for a US investor who bought VGK via a US stockbroker before the currency ratio change. There is n...
by SemiRetire
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1291

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

dcabler wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:42 pmetf.com
Thanks


VPL 14.6

VBR 31.5


VGK 18.6

VWO 13.25
by SemiRetire
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1291

Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

I was looking for current Price to Earnings ratios on the following Vanguard Funds: VWO emerging VPL Australiasia VGK Europe VBR US small cap VTI US Total stock market basically = SP500 PE I believe? VNQ US REIT is more of an FFO issue not a PE issue as I understand it, so a bit more complex valuati...
by SemiRetire
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High inflation and real stock market return
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

Re: High inflation and real stock market return

Anyone know how Argentinian stocks did during thier devaluations ? Coralito (sp?). Where they devalued like 30 percent or so the currency, did thier stock market jump up around 30 percent to compensate? Cant speak about Argentina but can say from personal experience that the only investments that h...
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?
Replies: 9
Views: 764

Re: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?

Thanks for replies.

It seems that the consensus here is to just buy rounds and not eagles.

Thanks
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?
Replies: 9
Views: 764

Re: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?

I have intended to buy physical silver for years, settled on slv etf instead around January, then watched as the physical jumped up, but the etf dropped in a pretty big divergence. Slv now back to even from where I bought it. Yeah I am in no hurry to buy now, was originally intending to get eagles,...
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High inflation and real stock market return
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

Re: High inflation and real stock market return

I assume that, "What will happen to the U.S. stock market if we undergo high to hyperinflation?" is the underlying question. No, the question is about actual historical performance of stock markets under high to hyper inflation in real terms. So far USA had a slight negative real return i...
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High inflation and real stock market return
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

Re: High inflation and real stock market return

Anyone know how Argentinian stocks did during thier devaluations ?

Coralito (sp?). Where they devalued like 30 percent or so the currency, did thier stock market jump up around 30 percent to compensate?
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High inflation and real stock market return
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

High inflation and real stock market return

Had a historical question: for countries that have had devaluations in currency, high to hyper inflation ,what happens to their stock markets??n My gestalt is nominally goes up, but real return is bad? Weimar Coralito etc? Kinda a broad question thanks Edit: Also, the question is actually just the q...
by SemiRetire
Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?
Replies: 9
Views: 764

Re: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?

Thanks. I have intended to buy physical silver for years, settled on slv etf instead around January, then watched as the physical jumped up, but the etf dropped in a pretty big divergence. Slv now back to even from where I bought it. Yeah I am in no hurry to buy now, was originally intending to get ...
by SemiRetire
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?
Replies: 9
Views: 764

Physical silver investing: rounds or ASE?

Was considering investing in physical silver as a given for this topic. Not ETF. The question is investing in physical silver rounds versus American Silver Eagles or maple leaves or other coins Would be buying through at APMEX or another low cost provider would be selling long-term via APMEX or crai...
by SemiRetire
Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?
Replies: 20
Views: 1013

Re: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?

so the commingled funds that the broker holds for you in its name are held in two separate accounts. Type 1 - no short selling Type 2 - short selling allowed. anything else that goes on in here? or is type II only reason for being is for short selling? Are margin accounts in here too? Thanks. Is the...
by SemiRetire
Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?
Replies: 20
Views: 1013

Re: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?

Maybe I do not understand then reading the above 3 replies. My understanding: A is just a person who bought a stock share from etrade, a brokerage that holds it, then lends out shares in a unallocated fashion from its holdings. Ie there is no specific share owned by A, there is just a class of peop...
by SemiRetire
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?
Replies: 20
Views: 1013

Re: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?

Maybe I do not understand then reading the above 3 replies. My understanding: A is just a person who bought a stock share from etrade, a brokerage that holds it, then lends out shares in a unallocated fashion from its holdings. Ie there is no specific share owned by A, there is just a class of peopl...
by SemiRetire
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?
Replies: 20
Views: 1013

Re: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?

Well, IIRC, gold ETF's are not fully allocated anyway. But... It's just like lending any other security. Or anything else for that matter. If you loan me your chainsaw, and I sell your chainsaw to Fred down the street and you need to cut down a tree This is subtle perhaps: A is not loaning anything...
by SemiRetire
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 186
Views: 13640

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

By definition the 4% SWR was predicated on 95 percent success..... The definition I use has a 100% success rate. That's why it is called the safe withdrawal rate and not the mostly safe withdrawal rate. ERN and McClung both show that the exact method of how you pull money out, rebalance, and perfor...
by SemiRetire
Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?
Replies: 20
Views: 1013

With shorting of ETF are gold/commodity ETF actually fully backed?

Simple case: ETF holding 1 ounce of gold, sells 1 ETF share representing said gold. Investor A buy share of ETF from etrade. Investor B at etrade shorts the ETF share, sells it to investor C. So at that point in time, there is 1 commodity unit, but TWO people A and C who both believe they own the sa...
by SemiRetire
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?
Replies: 45
Views: 3240

Re: Should We Our Shorten Bond Duration?

This is my gestalt on bond funds: Say duration 5 years. Rates go up by 1 percent: The worth of the Bond fund at the time drops but the new bonds as bond continually roll over earn one percent more than they used to break even point is five years Rates go down by 1%: The worth of your existing bond f...
by SemiRetire
Tue May 19, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of sunglasses?
Replies: 107
Views: 6770

Re: What kind of sunglasses?

https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B01MQ08MTS?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_title https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B01LYQK0YX?psc=1&ref=ppx_pop_mob_b_asin_title These are the two cheap high quality sunglasses I have finally found. I have a somewhat large head, so some sunglasses are borderline smal...
by SemiRetire
Sun May 03, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 186
Views: 13640

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

I hate this kind of statement because it violates the whole premise of what safe withdrawal rules were supposed to be and were said to be. They are not supposed to be based on the current situation. They are supposed to be based on time periods that include the full credible range of situations, of...
by SemiRetire
Sun May 03, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 186
Views: 13640

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

I don't think Pfau ever believed the 4% rule was safe did he? He said that the Rule might have worked 90% to 95% of the time when interest rates were in the 5-6% range - that is, historical data. Now he thinks a 4% rule might work 60-70% of the time with current interest rates. He thinks that a “3%...
by SemiRetire
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self directed IRA LLC help
Replies: 1
Views: 228

Re: Self directed IRA LLC help

FYI

I went with itrustcapital seems to have gone well so far.
by SemiRetire
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1046

Re: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds

adamsdp wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:52 pm I am using rpibx, igov and bwz. Rpibx has a higher expense ratio than the other 2 and is a managed bond fund of medium duration. Igov is government securities only of medium duration and bwz is short term and government debt only if i recall correctly.
Thanks : )
by SemiRetire
Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1046

Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds

What Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds are people using in their portfolios?

Thanks : )
by SemiRetire
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities
Replies: 5
Views: 652

Re: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities

Man, there it is, milk being poured on ground instead of sold April 10,2020 Wall Street Journal with picture of milk on ground 2020: (EDIT on reclick the milk picture is no longer at top like it was) https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-deal-with-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-115864...
by SemiRetire
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities
Replies: 5
Views: 652

Re: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities

Here is my list of financial oddities that are ongoing currently. 1) sliver spot price circa 14 dollars, silver coin circa 28 dollars 2) negative interest rate bonds ( this one has been around a while, so no longer has shock value that it should to me lol) 3)mortgages where the banks pays the homeo...
by SemiRetire
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities
Replies: 5
Views: 652

list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities

Here is my list of financial oddities that are ongoing currently. 1) sliver spot price circa 14 dollars, silver coin circa 28 dollars 2) negative interest rate bonds ( this one has been around a while, so no longer has shock value that it should to me lol) 3)mortgages where the banks pays the homeow...
by SemiRetire
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing Cable TV with Streaming: Critical Analysis
Replies: 86
Views: 5790

Re: Replacing Cable TV with Streaming: Critical Analysis

My 78 year old father and I both use YouTube tv, he is very happy with it. Has the golf channel and basically all channels I ever use.