Search found 57 matches

by itmaybejj
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25915

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

How about big becoming small and healthy. Has UK really done that badly in the past 100 years? No it's done pretty well overall. But if you lived in the late 1800s and put all your investments in England because it was more stable and better run than backwaters like the US...well...there was a dist...
by itmaybejj
Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25915

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Can a small country that is not an empire have a good and consistent economic growth? Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Luxembourg, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand Yah! Small and healthy: good. Small and growing: great: Big becoming small: terrible. Big after becoming small and then so...
by itmaybejj
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25915

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Just look at our own Bogleheads wiki, which shows the efficient frontier for US/Int'l allocations from 1970-2007 (image uploaded in 2008): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/File:US-International-Emerging.png. The worst performing allocation was 100% US, and adding any international increased returns,...
by itmaybejj
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13590

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

The income limit to use I Bonds tax free for education is quite low (by BH standards). You all suffer so :D Well. Something to think about. I'm torn because my state's Vanguard muni fund is still yielding ~3%. It has a ~6 year duration, so I assume it will drop ~18% if rates go up 3%? But it seems ...
by itmaybejj
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13590

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

Prepayed college tuition (although I bonds can maybe be tax-free for that purpose?) This is exactly why I am in this thread. Kids are about one business cycle from college and interest rates are likely to rise this decade, so the long term bonds I WAS using as portfolio ballast may have a bad bad d...
by itmaybejj
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 317
Views: 26945

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

JBTX wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:31 am Personally I'm waiting on somebody to clarify pantsonFIRE.
Quit job, enter politics.
by itmaybejj
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 317
Views: 26945

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

For what it's worth, my investment tracking spreadsheet has a tab where I calculated the net present value of my retirement target based on several possible return and contribution rates, for each remaining working year. I put that together because I wanted some upper and lower bounds, because witho...
by itmaybejj
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 380
Views: 31259

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:29 am I wonder what the ROI of building and selling bunkers would be...maybe there will be the option to crowdsource...
I like the way you think. Market them as bunkers to the worried, root cellars to the gardeners and wine cellars to the hoi polloi.

Unfortunately this sounds suspiciously like work.
by itmaybejj
Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective
Replies: 47
Views: 6433

Re: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective

Vnq and fsrnx -- the latter because I can buy like $4.82 of it after etf buys. I'll echo that I don't know enough to skew within the sector. I somewhat regularly consider dropping these for simple cap weighting with a small cap skew, since folks have said a few times they correlate closer than I ori...
by itmaybejj
Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 380
Views: 31259

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

This chart should be pinned to the front page of Bogleheads. Missing just the best 60 days over a 20 year period flipped your performance from a return of +10% to a loss of -4%. Would be a good site banner! Yeah; having seen that chart around, I look at increasing cash reserves as throwing away ret...
by itmaybejj
Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 380
Views: 31259

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

I am waiting, but not pulling. Which is to say: I am letting my uninvested cash (usually ~1-2 months income) grow into a proper emergency fund (~6 months income). This isn't to maximize return-- my instincts want to market time but I'm not trying to market time -- it's because multiple people [not n...
by itmaybejj
Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience w/LG's 5k Ultrafine Display
Replies: 6
Views: 545

Re: Experience w/LG's 5k Ultrafine Display

I traded a 32" 4k at my old job for one. The crispy text was dreamy and let me sit closer, so the effective field of view was similar with fewer eyestrain headaches.

My new job won't pay for one. Seriously considering buying one with my own money.
by itmaybejj
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ergonomic keyboard suggestion
Replies: 21
Views: 1005

Re: Ergonomic keyboard suggestion

I can't imagine changing to a different keyboard layout! Curious if you find it difficult to switch between qwerty and Dvorak? Hmm... pondering since you asked... actually now that I think about it my "thumbs" and my fingers now have a different native language... ...I touch type on full ...
by itmaybejj
Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ergonomic keyboard suggestion
Replies: 21
Views: 1005

Re: Ergonomic keyboard suggestion

I am of the camp that ergonomic issues stem from the whole picture - your desk, your chair, keyboard, monitor, mouse, everything. Definitely. Until recently handled purchasing for a couple dozen folks. When people had minor issues I would immediately make sure they had an under-desk tray to straigh...
by itmaybejj
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy gold in a boglehead friendly way
Replies: 51
Views: 4311

Re: How to buy gold in a boglehead friendly way

You can buy gold as financial apocalypse insurance any time. But if you're just hoping to make a buck with a better portfolio allocation: if things don't hit the fan you are likely to be buying at a decade long high, since the cyclical investors poured into it months ago. Of course, gold is up whene...
by itmaybejj
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: difficulty finding no-cost 10 yr mortgage refi
Replies: 24
Views: 1269

Re: difficulty finding no-cost 10 yr mortgage refi

Remember the interest compounds on the remaining balance each cycle, not the original balance. So a 15 year mortgage paid off monthly as if it is a 10 costs the same as a "real" 10. The 15 just has a lower monthly minimum payment. Just get the best rate, even if the term is "wrong,&qu...
by itmaybejj
Sat May 23, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NJ property taxes too high. What are my alternative states?
Replies: 97
Views: 8054

Re: NJ property taxes too high. What are my alternative states?

Our daughter, hubby and our 2 grandchildren (now teens) live within 4 miles- that's kind of a big anchor. Would surrender much more than 11-16% of my someday inheritance if it meant my family elders would come live that close. Unless you are in danger of running out of money and starving, I'd recom...
by itmaybejj
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?
Replies: 31
Views: 3436

Re: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?

Health care is doing terrible, lay-offs all over the place with the cancelation of elective procedures Terrible for hospitals, doctors, nurses, administrators and all other humans, yes. But the sector doesn't give a rip about humans because the computers at the publicly traded corporations are maki...
by itmaybejj
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?
Replies: 31
Views: 3436

Re: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?

optimism air drops of megatons of stimulus cash how much tech and finance, the least affected industries thus far, dominate market cap. Not to mention health care. Utilities are doing ok. Grocery stores and funeral homes are having record quarters. Commercial real estate is seeing malls whither but...
by itmaybejj
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a maximum one should keep at one brokerage firm?
Replies: 25
Views: 1701

Re: Is there a maximum one should keep at one brokerage firm?

I think there is something to be said for not having everything in one place, so that a brokerage account that gets compromised or frozen for some reason doesn't leave you potentially locked out of everything for a while as you deal with the fracas.
by itmaybejj
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Change Assessments Age 30
Replies: 20
Views: 2778

Re: Career Change Assessments Age 30

I have had about a billion hobbies this year alone (fly fishing, kayaking, switched from skiing to snowboarding, road biking, video games, softball league, bought/sold motorcycle within span of 6 months, etc.) where I take an extreme level of interest, buy all of the equipment (new of course :oops:...
by itmaybejj
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Change Assessments Age 30
Replies: 20
Views: 2778

Re: Career Change Assessments Age 30

Do you know of any roles personally in IT world that might be potential options for somebody in my shoes? I think that's going to have to come from folks that know you in real life. And the answer doesn't have to be permanent. I'm on my third career at the same company; after a few years the things...
by itmaybejj
Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Change Assessments Age 30
Replies: 20
Views: 2778

Re: Career Change Assessments Age 30

also, forget about doing those career guides. just keep applying....and learn to network, having mentoring sessions over lunch, just learn to get a few minutes of someone's time to ask them general questions about an field that may be of interest to you, or any job hunting tips. be sincere in askin...
by itmaybejj
Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Change Assessments Age 30
Replies: 20
Views: 2778

Re: Career Change Assessments Age 30

You may want to consider close tangent careers where skills would transfer, but you'd work with a smaller group of people, and the nature of it being a small group would lead to more role sharing for variety. E.g. non-profits who lend to small businesses in urban redevelopment zones, or personal fin...
by itmaybejj
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My LenderFi refinance is going well
Replies: 1484
Views: 137482

Re: My LenderFi refinance is going well

Should i refinance my 3.125% mortgage with about $160k left on it? Lender FIshows me weird rates of 4.5% i'm confused Rates are jumping all over on their site. My guess is they are quoting competitive rates until they have enough customers in the queue to keep them busy for a while, and then pressi...
by itmaybejj
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening 2020
Replies: 227
Views: 17615

Re: Gardening 2020

There's no need to rip up your lawn. See: stop ripping up your lawn to grow veggies So true! Good advice. I've done that in the past and it worked well. I was feeling cheap this year though with all that's going on; I figured it would cost me about half as much if I used the existing topsoil instea...
by itmaybejj
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening 2020
Replies: 227
Views: 17615

Re: Gardening 2020

Friends?#*@! It's an iguana invasion down here, a "green plague" destroying all gardens great and beautiful :annoyed I couldn't do it, but if you could: you could have the highest return on investment garden on the board! http://blogs.ifas.ufl.edu/browardco/2018/08/22/iguana-recipe-ideas-...
by itmaybejj
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 396
Views: 52312

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Lee_WSP wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:43 pm
You are describing options.
:oops:

Gah. You're right.
by itmaybejj
Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 396
Views: 52312

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I think I'm asking if bonds dropped low enough could it actually start taking away from the stock portion of the portfolio. So say hypothetically stocks are going up but bonds are crashing hard (humor me). Would that mean you could potentially lose more than 10% of your portfolio? Also what if both...
by itmaybejj
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 396
Views: 52312

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

lexor wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:10 am What percent NTSX is your allocation
~15. It's about half my US large cap and bond allocation. Everything else is very Bogle-normal.
by itmaybejj
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 396
Views: 52312

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

lexor wrote: Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:10 am What percent NTSX is your allocation
~15. It's about half my US large cap allocation. Everything else is very Bogle-normal.
by itmaybejj
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 396
Views: 52312

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Couple questions re: potential Fed rate cuts and the Treasury futures component of NTSX: - Ignoring the equities portion of NTSX, if the Fed were to cut rates, what immediate effect does that have on the 10% leveraged Treasury futures portion of NTSX? - Including both the equities & treaury fut...
by itmaybejj
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toy overload alternatives for grandparents
Replies: 104
Views: 5815

Re: Toy overload alternatives for grandparents

One thing that helped us was emphasizing that we were out of *space.* But we didn't try to stop them from showering the kids with presents since they so enjoyed it; we just steered it towards ideas that worked for everyone. Our mantra was "two dimensional or consumable." So: lots of books ...
by itmaybejj
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you objectively set Stock vs Bond Allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 6091

Re: How do you objectively set Stock vs Bond Allocation

Thanks for the responses so far. I have done the Vanguard questionnaire and it recommends 100% stock for me If you want that but it seems extreme, it might be worth calculating what your effective allocation is, including your cash and/or emergency fund. For us young folks that can be significant. ...
by itmaybejj
Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 228
Views: 18423

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

3. Actually buying. I know NTSX is low volume. What buying strategy would you adopt if you were to buy say $50k NTSX? Market? Limit - if so how to price? Optimal time of day? I've only ever bought high-volume ETFs like VTI and VXUS, so not sure what potential problems need avoiding when buying a lo...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 228
Views: 18423

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

2) Acknowledge they are leveraging to increase risk which makes their allocation percentages effectively 93/7ish but not worry about the details, and "treat" ntsx as 60/40 in the account where it is owned to create the same skew as #1. The first and second halves of that sentence clearly ...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 228
Views: 18423

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

According to Portfolio Visualizer, which uses monthly returns (and results in reduced observed volatility compared to daily returns), NTSX has had nearly identical volatility to an 80/20 split of TSM/TBM in its very brief history. I agree that NTSX should not be treated as having a 60/40 allocation...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 228
Views: 18423

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

When you "treat it as 60/40 in my portfolio" what do you mean... you treat it that way in terms of what factors? When I rebalance now I just multiply my NTSX holdings by .6 and .4 and drop those amounts into my US market weight and bonds totals. I have a target for US market weight, a tar...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 228
Views: 18423

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

It will significantly underperform the s&p if rates rise. Bingo. Another reason why I treat it as 60/40 in my portfolio. If it treat it as 90/10 or 100/0, it would cause me to buy more bonds, which would hit me hard if bonds fall and make me miss if stocks rise, and negate the *return* possibil...
by itmaybejj
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason to stay in small and mid cap funds for 401k?
Replies: 11
Views: 1105

Re: Any reason to stay in small and mid cap funds for 401k?

In addition to the theoretical hope of small cap outperformance, it's worth noting that large caps have done great for the last few years largely because of the FAANG 5. They may continue to outperform for years or decades. But changing your allocation towards large caps *now* means you may be buyin...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Becoming more reclusive as I age - is it OK to be OK with it?
Replies: 101
Views: 7384

Re: Becoming more reclusive as I age - is it OK to be OK with it?

We live in the PNW, and for the past few weeks it has been miserable with rain, flooding, and landslides. Today it finally stopped raining and the sun came out. I went outside onto our property for the first time in a long while and did a bit of light cleaning up, removing branches and some blackbe...
by itmaybejj
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Becoming more reclusive as I age - is it OK to be OK with it?
Replies: 101
Views: 7384

Re: Becoming more reclusive as I age - is it OK to be OK with it?

Everyone I know tends to feel this way. Myself included. But the ones who consciously spend the effort to make and maintain friendships as they age never seem to regret it. But I have seen the opposite many times: people who only have a few friends and think that is plenty end up with fewer and fewe...
by itmaybejj
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone looked into pet insurance?
Replies: 25
Views: 1794

Re: Has anyone looked into pet insurance?

We got it, but not for financial reasons. It's like dental "insurance" -- odds are very, very good over the life of your pet ownership you will have been better off saving the money and paying cash. But what I decided was that I love my doggie enough that I would want to spend stupid amoun...
by itmaybejj
Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocate to avoid State Taxes on Long Term Capital Gains?
Replies: 19
Views: 1874

Re: Relocate to avoid State Taxes on Long Term Capital Gains?

Where is your family? Where are your friends? You can't take it with you. If you have enough for taxes to matter, then my philosophy is you should just enjoy the freedom to live where you can do the most good and enjoy living the most. I know too many people who moved for tax reasons and now spend m...
by itmaybejj
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insulating bedroom walls/floor from inside the house
Replies: 16
Views: 1504

Re: Insulating bedroom walls/floor from inside the house

Blown cellulose worked great for us. Easy to inject, and the R value is higher than loose fill, though lower than foam. But our house was 60+ years old, and our original insulation had collapsed. Yours is probably still fine, which means you probably can't blow anything in (the cavity is still full)...
by itmaybejj
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you could only listen to one podcast...
Replies: 138
Views: 12268

Re: If you could only listen to one podcast...

I'm a big fan of Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz.

Something like 200 longform interviews in the bag so far with big names in investing, finance, banking, insurance, etc. Some are very Bogle-y (including the man himself). Some are the opposite extreme.
by itmaybejj
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: strong role model books for 8 YO girl
Replies: 53
Views: 3520

Re: strong role model books for 8 YO girl

My dear spouse maintains topical lists of all the best books our kids have read and/or have been recommended for when they are a little older: https://bitly.com/LucyBooks Reading levels range from board books to middle school at the moment. Here's the sublist she tagged "Strong Female Protagoni...
by itmaybejj
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early mistakes made. Cut my losses?
Replies: 15
Views: 2107

Re: Early mistakes made. Cut my losses?

And don't feel bad. Nearly every investing decision I made in my first years was not great. That's normal, and it is GREAT to make those mistakes early, when there's not a lot of value at risk.
by itmaybejj
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
Replies: 652
Views: 70738

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

guyinlaw wrote: Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:55 am
NTSX has allocated 10% of its assets for Treasury futures. That means the fund has approx 9.3% available in cash.
...
I wonder what WisdomTree is doing with this 9.3% cash.
Something seasonally appropriate, one can assume.

Image
by itmaybejj
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
Replies: 652
Views: 70738

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Today I bought 400k worth of NTSX, replacing my taxable VTSAX position. Which was almost all of today's trading volume :shock: Happily, I bought close to NAV, despite doing a buy order at market. I guess due to ETF basket creation wizardry. I wonder how often they update their Assets Under Manageme...