Search found 35 matches

by luckyducky99
Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 246
Views: 12151

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used

Your logic is entirely correct, and would apply perfectly to robots. The thing you aren't accounting for when you say "should never be used" is that human beings invest, and human beings have emotions. Those emotions have merit in making personal finance decisions. It can take a while to becoming a...
by luckyducky99
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owing Taxes = Cheapest Investing on Margin
Replies: 11
Views: 847

Re: Owing Taxes = Cheapest Investing on Margin

And no margin call. I guess it's not technically a margin call, but your debt's being called 4/15 7/15 whether you're up, down, or sideways. So unless you're holding cash on the side to pay, which doesn't seem much different than having the government withhold it, so assuming that's not the case an...
by luckyducky99
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16358

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

Every other paycheck, so 50% after tax. Plus 100% after tax of any bonus, which comes once a year.
by luckyducky99
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: M1 Borrow - 2% margin loan
Replies: 28
Views: 1558

Re: M1 Borrow - 2% margin loan

madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:56 pm
This should be explained better.
I agree. I wouldn't do this myself without getting an affirmative answer from them about that, e.g. to find out if that +3.25 is variable and at their discretion with zero notice etc. etc. or what.
by luckyducky99
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: M1 Borrow - 2% margin loan
Replies: 28
Views: 1558

Re: M1 Borrow - 2% margin loan

2% APR is variable. It says the "current M1 rate" is 3.5%, but M1+ subscribers get a 1.5% rate discount. It's not clear what the M1 rate is based on. Is it relative to prime ? I couldn't find that information. Well it says this much under the risks heading: "The M1 Borrow base rate is variable and ...
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18212

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

OP, Your post was like stepping on a giant ant bed of international investing haters, and then running away while they bite the unsuspecting investors who have some international investments. That always happens on any international thread. International and gold are the two reasonably serious* inv...
by luckyducky99
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12289

Re: There Is No Gold

The zombie-apocalypse goldbugs don't want to buy useless promises written on paper.

They want the real deal, and they're willing to pay for it.
by luckyducky99
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying on margin in times like these, while maintaining correct asset allocation?
Replies: 17
Views: 883

Re: Buying on margin in times like these, while maintaining correct asset allocation?

You're 30 years young with what appears to be a healthy appetite for risk.

Why do you own any bonds at all?

Why would you pay to borrow money from someone else to buy stocks when you could borrow it from yourself by just selling your bonds?
by luckyducky99
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 320
Views: 25694

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Lost about 5 pounds. Spring weather and working from home means I can sneak out during the day and am getting more exercise than usual. Also bars are all closed now and I don't like drinking home alone, which may help me lose even more.
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to Adjust Bond Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 341

Re: When to Adjust Bond Allocation

Intl Bond Fund has yield of 0.34 and LT US Treasury yield is 1.5%. If your international bond fund is hedged to the dollar then the yield reported does not accurately reflect its return, because it doesn't include the return from the currency hedge. Including the hedge return will generally result ...
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to Adjust Bond Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 341

Re: When to Adjust Bond Allocation

Intl Bond Fund has yield of 0.34 and LT US Treasury yield is 1.5%. If your international bond fund is hedged to the dollar then the yield reported does not accurately reflect its return, because it doesn't include the return from the currency hedge. Including the hedge return will generally result ...
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 17831

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

I don't believe in timing the market, I don't. I don't at all. But it's clear as day stocks are about to seriously tank and I don't see the purpose of riding the market all the way down? Deciding to buy or sell based on a prediction of future price movements is the actual definition of market timing.
by luckyducky99
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22438

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

If you're investing for the long term and have the mental grit and financial stability to tolerate major and protracted drawdowns, then bonds don't really have much to offer, they're just a drag. Except for those bonds that act more stock-like. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/lon...
by luckyducky99
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22438

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

Are bonds in a portfolio (in a tax advantage account) being held so people are able to rebalance and if so, is that because a portfolio which is rebalanced annually, for example, expects to generate higher returns than a portfolio which doesn’t hold bonds and only holds equities? "Rebalancing" gene...
by luckyducky99
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 55594

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

If you live near an urban center, you could try a downtown grocery store early, when they open. My regular grocery has had it every morning I've gone in. My partner lives slightly out of downtown, but only by a couple miles, and says it's impossible to find, so I bought some extra as a gift. My stor...
by luckyducky99
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9276

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

I'm early 40s, still working, 60/40.

Last year I decided I wanted to stop worrying about investments, realized I was basically FI, found this forum, and moved from 100/0 to 60/40 with the realization that if I wanted to, or needed to, or had no choice in the matter, I could stop working and be OK.
by luckyducky99
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire
Replies: 41
Views: 3187

Re: Educate me on today's treasury market quagmire

I've only been on this forum a short time, but this is one of the most interesting and informative threads I've read. Thanks to all who are sharing their knowledge.
by luckyducky99
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Markets In Turmoil - Boring Responses
Replies: 65
Views: 5667

Re: Markets In Turmoil - Boring Responses

I finally crossed a rebalancing band today. While I was rebalancing I was also able to TLH and get out of an active fund position in a taxable account from my pre-Boglehead days.
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 99
Views: 5911

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Thank you for putting in the time and effort to write this. It's very informative. We can plug in some numbers to get a feel for the correct value of γ. I will use a risk premium of 5% and standard deviation of 16%. <...> γ=2 corresponds to an asset allocation of 100% stocks <...> Suppose that we h...
by luckyducky99
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 99
Views: 5911

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Thank you for putting in the time and effort to write this. It's very informative. We can plug in some numbers to get a feel for the correct value of γ. I will use a risk premium of 5% and standard deviation of 16%. <...> γ=2 corresponds to an asset allocation of 100% stocks <...> Suppose that we ha...
by luckyducky99
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing vs Short Term Cap Gains
Replies: 13
Views: 514

Re: Rebalancing vs Short Term Cap Gains

What about excess long term losses from what you've harvested?

"Net losses of either type can then be deducted against the other kind of gain." https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/in ... /L7GF1ouP8

Or am I interpreting that wrong?
by luckyducky99
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suppose you founded a company like Microsoft or Amazon & have accumulated tremendous wealth. How would you invest?
Replies: 52
Views: 3708

Re: Suppose you founded a company like Microsoft or Amazon & have accumulated tremendous wealth. How would you invest?

I would have really no interest in investing if I had founded a company like Microsoft or Amazon. None at all. This. At such level of wealth your concern should be figuring out the most effective way of applying it towards the things that you care about. Hire people to manage the wealth itself, tha...
by luckyducky99
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296965

Re: Coronavirus and the market

-We have 10 years of living expenses in fixed income / cash Do you include the volatile long end of your bond barbell in those 10 years expenses? Because you have high confidence in its negative correlation with tanking stocks? Yes, they're included, but on an adjusted weighting. I count my Long Tr...
by luckyducky99
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296965

Re: Coronavirus and the market

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:31 pm
-We have 10 years of living expenses in fixed income / cash
Do you include the volatile long end of your bond barbell in those 10 years expenses? Because you have high confidence in its negative correlation with tanking stocks?
by luckyducky99
Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 110
Views: 8006

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

When I used the Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator to analyze safe withdrawal rates, a 60/40 portfolio has a 91% success rate over 30 years at a 4% withdrawal rate. A 30/70 portfolio has a success rate of...90%. Why would anyone take so much more risk to achieve essentially the same result? Se...
by luckyducky99
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 110
Views: 8006

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

When I used the Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator to analyze safe withdrawal rates, a 60/40 portfolio has a 91% success rate over 30 years at a 4% withdrawal rate. A 30/70 portfolio has a success rate of...90%. Why would anyone take so much more risk to achieve essentially the same result? Se...
by luckyducky99
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Forging an old photo
Replies: 25
Views: 2549

Re: Forging an old photo

Does anyone know if it's possible to print on old photographic paper (Ebay has lots of old photo paper from the 1950s) and will the effect look realistic? Sounds like you're talking about printing with a modern inkjet printer on such paper. You could try, but I would be extremely surprised if thing...
by luckyducky99
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating guaranteed tax loss?
Replies: 6
Views: 854

Re: Creating guaranteed tax loss?

- At the end of 2020 (or whenever there's a signicant upturn/downturn): tax loss harvest with the ETF that generated a loss. Except, when you harvest the losses, I think you also have to sell the winner, for an offsetting gain, otherwise you now have one-sided 3x exposure and your risk profile is w...
by luckyducky99
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 339
Views: 49963

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Probably one or two book's worth of time for starters. But yeah, I'll probably start there on the good ol' internets. For starter books, some of my favorites are: https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Return-Analysis-Practice-Rational-Investing/dp/007181793X/ref=sr_1_3?crid=895TICWX5FLN&keywords=modern+portf...
by luckyducky99
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 339
Views: 49963

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

2. For how much / allocation - I use risk parity analysis using rolling optimization windows. #1 + #2 account for 96% of your portfolio return, according to Ibbotson. I look at trade-offs in Sortino ratio and portfolio risk decomposition vs portfolio return contribution by asset, as well as the usu...
by luckyducky99
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 339
Views: 49963

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

2. For how much / allocation - I use risk parity analysis using rolling optimization windows. #1 + #2 account for 96% of your portfolio return, according to Ibbotson. I look at trade-offs in Sortino ratio and portfolio risk decomposition vs portfolio return contribution by asset, as well as the usu...
by luckyducky99
Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on options and RSUs?
Replies: 7
Views: 589

Re: Advice on options and RSUs?

Thanks for the input, everyone. I've never counted them as anything until they've hatched before, it sounds like that's the common attitude for reasonable reasons. I hadn't thought at all about how it looks. So I'll probably just ride it out and jump on the sell button when I can when they vest.
by luckyducky99
Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on options and RSUs?
Replies: 7
Views: 589

Re: Advice on options and RSUs?

If you're buying/pricing protection you should buy protection through your vesting date (plus however long it might take to settle/sell/unwind your position). A black swam could materialize any day with regard to any individual company. This makes sense. I think I would just repeat this again close...
by luckyducky99
Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on options and RSUs?
Replies: 7
Views: 589

Advice on options and RSUs?

Hi -- I'm new to the forum, having just found Bogleheads, and have been reading along for a few weeks now, but think I belong. I have a large (~$250k), unsellable position in employer BigCorp's stock in the form of restricted stock that will vest next summer. Because that feels risky to me, I was th...