Search found 385 matches

by occambogle
Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 53
Views: 6237

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

Tesla up 14% today to around $1750, and CNBC saying this makes it the 10th largest U.S. stock by market value.....
by occambogle
Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 881
Views: 59717

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Long-term bonds are still the best strategy: if yields rise early in your investment period, the price will go down but the chance to reinvest your coupon payments at higher rates will offset that. And vice-versa: if yields fall early in your investment period, you'll be reinvesting your income pay...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 317
Views: 26770

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Thanks occambogle! I am currently 10% EDV (all tax-advantaged portfolio) and pondering if I could replace this portion with 10% TMF to mimick 90/60 allocation. I was intrigued into exploring levered 60/40 strategies by this thread, PSLDX thread, excellent adventure threads and lifecycle investing t...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 317
Views: 26770

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I tried to simulate this in portfoliovisualizer and it does seem to mimick 90% equities & 60% IEF with some tracking error: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmou...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: British Expat (33) in Singapore - Portfolio advice please
Replies: 3
Views: 480

Re: British Expat (33) in Singapore - Portfolio advice please

To answer your question about an Irish domiciled QQQ, yes it's called EQQQ. Alternatively for a tech tilt you could use VGT, FTEC or XLK. The dividend yields are so low there's virtually nothing between Irish and US domicile in terms of total expense. That's interesting, I didn't know there was an ...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 53
Views: 6237

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

Hi, just curious regarding timing... does S&P review/announce possible inclusions/removals on some kind of known schedule/dates, or just whenever they like? Presumably Tesla couldn't be included, at the earliest, until after they report Q2 2020 earnings... which they now say will be after market clo...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

@rossington - With respect, with your quoting me out of context I feel you are very much misrepresenting my actual post .... the "is this the guy?" was replying to a previous poster commenting about someone on r/wallstreetbets who had leveraged the 3x adventure another 8x on margin, and thus doesn't...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does it seem index funds beat index ETFs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1755

Re: Why does it seem index funds beat index ETFs?

I recently contacted M* about this and was told: We have identified that ETF Growth of 10k Charts do not include the Dividends in them whereas the Open End funds do. I am raising this request as an enhancement and a feature request. This will enable our Developers to schedule this escalation and wo...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it better to contribute to non deductible IRA and do backdoor Roth IRA in the same calendar year?
Replies: 10
Views: 693

Re: Is it better to contribute to non deductible IRA and do backdoor Roth IRA in the same calendar year?

If you have money in a tIRA and will be subject to the pro-rata rule, then waiting to see if you can go directly into the Roth (front door) makes sense in this context. However, if you have already cleared the way for a backdoor Roth process ($0 in traditional IRAs), there is no reason to wait to s...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Use Interactive Brokers Portfolio Rebalance tool. You input the percentages and it calculates the appropriate orders. Thanks, I will have a look at that. But I don't use TWS I only usually use Client Portal and I don't think it has that function. I ended up rebalancing earlier today (it was almost ...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it better to contribute to non deductible IRA and do backdoor Roth IRA in the same calendar year?
Replies: 10
Views: 693

Re: Is it better to contribute to non deductible IRA and do backdoor Roth IRA in the same calendar year?

But this is not always possible. For example, if you make a regular Roth contribution, get a year end bonus resulting in your Roth contribution being excess, you may have to recharacterize in the following year after discovering the excess, before converting back. This creates a more complex tax fi...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1320

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

The issue is that hedging costs are just too much. They are lower now but when the FED rates were around 2.25% it meant that hedging CHF/USD would cost 3%/year. A huge impact to your performance. Currently hedging CHF/USD will cost around 1%/year, but I guess it won't stay like that. Compare the pe...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1320

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

Interesting topic... and one that confuses me. I'm a US/UK citizen living in the developing world, with income solely in USD and expenditure in third country currencies plus some ties to Europe. My portfolio is all in USD-denominated funds/ETFs In terms of hedging the currency risk... which one shou...
by occambogle
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

See stories of people getting screwed with large market orders. My entire Roth is $6k so given daily volume of 10-40 million shares of UPRO/TQQQ I'm thinking I should be safe :-) The liquidity/volume of TQQQ/UPRO is really huge. Even way after-hours it seems to trade 24hrs and the spreads are still...
by occambogle
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Some rebalancing questions for those doing the adventure in a Roth IRA... - I've been running it in a very small Roth for a couple months and now my split is 65% equities 35% TMF. I started in mid-April with 55/45 UPRO/TMF, then switched to half UPRO half TQQQ on the equities side in mid-May. To dat...
by occambogle
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: losing ability to ensure good computer hygiene- what to do
Replies: 49
Views: 3775

Re: losing ability to ensure good computer hygiene- what to do

One thing you can do is setup something like openDNS; basically all your incoming and outgoing network traffic will go through a configuration Domain Name Server, where it has vast "block lists" for know malicious or objectionable places. It's something extra you can do that will protect everything...
by occambogle
Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: NTSX no trading today? 6 July 2020
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: NTSX no trading today? 6 July 2020

NTSX is my core holding in taxable and I follow the daily trading fairly closely but with no particular insight. It's quite normal for there to be almost no trading in the first hour, and spreads are larger, then it usually settles down during the day with smaller spreads. As posted above the market...
by occambogle
Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do any Bogleheads use Vanguard International Growth
Replies: 5
Views: 678

Re: Do any Bogleheads use Vanguard International Growth

All the international component in my 401k is in VWILX (the Admiral share version of the same fund) as there were few other decent international choices available to me. If you're OK with actively-managed large-cap international then it seems decent, it's certainly done very well this year compared ...
by occambogle
Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index funds [Belgium]
Replies: 4
Views: 434

Re: Index funds [Belgium]

There's also some good information on the BEFire reddit wiki:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BEFire/wiki/index
by occambogle
Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund Transfer to IB Account Wrong Recipient Bank
Replies: 3
Views: 333

Re: Fund Transfer to IB Account Wrong Recipient Bank

It seems unlikely the money will disappear, IB should be able to trace it. But as the poster above said - contact them immediately and provide all the transfer details.
FWIW I’m with IB and Citibank too.
by occambogle
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:00 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US citizen working in the UK - retirement fund options?
Replies: 16
Views: 1041

Re: US citizen working in the UK - retirement fund options?

We've managed IRA accounts at Interactive Brokers for Americans living overseas for many years, though in most cases I've seen them require a physical US address to open the account, which can be changed later. I opened a brokerage account with IBKR as a US citizen non-resident with no US address, ...
by occambogle
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Futures are 1+% up and the coronavirus crisis is getting worse
Replies: 13
Views: 1982

Re: Futures are 1+% up and the coronavirus crisis is getting worse

My comment is that WSB has discussed this issue almost every day and is way funnier than Bogleheads. With the exception of the soaring/falling threads here, for which I really enjoy the daily commentary/banter... I do enjoy a peek at r/wallstreetbets or to a lesser degree r/investing for the amusem...
by occambogle
Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4319

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

IndexCore wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:07 pm
. I took a very tiny part of my portfolio, and invested it to take advantage if the U.S. walks back towards lock downs.
Just curious... what did you do for this?
by occambogle
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living abroad: Schwab or IBRK?
Replies: 6
Views: 622

Re: Living abroad: Schwab or IBRK?

Also depends where you are moving to... Schwab refused me an account due to the country, so check the country you are moving to is on their "OK" list. IBKR were fine with it.
by occambogle
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All small cap international
Replies: 61
Views: 4198

Re: All small cap international

I TLH'd some VXUS I had in early June for ISCF and AVDV. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VXUS&compare=AVDV,ISCF,FNDC&id=p73137062532 The ISCF I bought June 1 has just broken even +0.72% while the AVDV on June 8 is down -6.8%. This is a super-short time frame - obviously - but I like to study the...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18996

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Blackrock just released their mid-year outlook. I reckon the last page might be pertinent to your question. Well, not the last page, because that's kind of a cover page. But the next to last page, which has lines and dots and bars and whatnot. https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whit...
by occambogle
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 317
Views: 26770

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Indeed, I feel NTSX has performed pretty much exactly as expected, i.e. in a good way. It's my core holding, with the rest being some non-boglehead international and tech tilt. It's also somewhat reassuring to me that the AUM has grown from around $120m to $240m, although if I remember a large part ...
by occambogle
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: SIPC coverage for Irish-domiciled ETFs
Replies: 24
Views: 2163

Re: SIPC coverage for Irish-domiciled ETFs

14. IB's Right to Loan/Pledge Customer Assets: As allowed by law, IB is authorized by Customer to lend to itself or others Customer securities or assets. IB may, without notice, pledge, re-pledge, hypothecate or re-hypothecate Customer's securities and assets, separately or together with those ofot...
by occambogle
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on International Growth Fund (VWIGX)
Replies: 9
Views: 871

Re: Thoughts on International Growth Fund (VWIGX)

I am holding the Admiral class of this fund VWILX and it seems a reasonable choice. I didn't have any standard Total International optiions in my 401k, and the other international options were weird and high expense ratio. It's a bet on large-cap growth stocks, for sure, but I think I'm OK with that...
by occambogle
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

2. Play money, except for 2 people here and one bankrupt guy on wallstreetbets. Is this the guy? https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fhgdra/i_just_woke_up_literally_to_a_margin_call_from/ The one with 400k of 3x leveraged TMF/UPRO leveraged again 8x with margin to a total of 3.2million...
by occambogle
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?
Replies: 79
Views: 11297

Re: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?

alex_686 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:29 pm
This is going to be hard for me. Pimco overhauls it strategy often, and its strategy is often complex and nuanced.
Thank you for taking the time to explain in simple terms.... I appreciate and understand a little better now what you were saying in the prior post :-)
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?
Replies: 79
Views: 11297

Re: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?

That's a bummer you don't have access to any low-cost Total Bond. If I had to pick from a group of high ER bond funds, I would definitely go with PIMIX. The management team seems solid. I just can't justify it in my situation given the options I have access to. Yes if I had access to Total Bond it'...
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682580

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jason2459 wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:42 pm
Bumping for the free fall tomorrow morning. :wink:
It seems you may get your wish..... :oops:
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?
Replies: 79
Views: 11297

Re: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?

I generally don't place much stock in analyst reports. Let's assume they're right for a moment and PIMIX is above average. Is it still above average once you factor in their prohibitively high ER? Well it depends on the objective of bonds of course, but in terms of both returns and Sharpe (though n...
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investing in EUR from Japan
Replies: 3
Views: 325

Re: Investing in EUR from Japan

I don't know about Japan-specific issues... but have you looked at Interactive Brokers?
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?
Replies: 79
Views: 11297

Re: PIMIX, income, cash, interest rates?

Just saw this new (June 1, 2020) Morningstar report today in case any PIMIX holders are interested: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/986480/why-pimco-income-remains-among-the-best ...and associated discussion on M* forums: https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Fidelity-Investments/PIMIX-New-M-Ana...
by occambogle
Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GERM ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 1024

Re: GERM ETF

Personally, I'm holding out for the CURE ETF. Not what you meant, I know, but there's already a "CURE" ETF - 3x leveraged Healthcare..... GERM - Brand new and only 10 million AUM.... not something I'd do. For BioTech, albeit different holdings, I do hold a little ARKG, but that has 5-year track rec...
by occambogle
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682580

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

“...as regulators try to ensure banks remain strong enough to keep lending through the pandemic-induced downturn. ...Some of the Fed’s own loss projections for banks, in fact, suggest that the eventual hit to loans in a bad scenario could be far worse than in the aftermath of 2008. That outcome hel...
by occambogle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682580

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:03 am
Is it really your contention that there was only one possible path and everyone should have known it?
I was being a little facetious of course... and as others have pointed out there is also the IMF downgrade. In any case my intention wasn't to derail this thread, so I'll leave it there.
by occambogle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19333
Views: 2682580

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

VTI now down more than 3%... I was promised everything was "priced in". There's a refund system on this forum, right? :-)
Seriously though, it seems the market is reacting to increased coronavirus cases, and what I find interesting is that nothing has occurred new that wasn't seemingly inevitable.
by occambogle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5435
Views: 488303

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It would be terribly sad if Hedgefundie dropped off this thread (and others)... I'm a relative newcomer but I've learned so much by reading through all the posts here. I sincerely hope they return....
by occambogle
Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fun Money in Health Stocks
Replies: 11
Views: 1164

Re: Fun Money in Health Stocks

I like investing “fun money” in ARKG. The fund invests in innovative/next generation medical technology. The fund manager, Cathie Wood, is excellent. Was a pretty good day for ARKG and ARKK yesterday following news of Invitae's acquisition of ArcherDX (frankly I've never heard of either, and why to...
by occambogle
Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TVIX/TQQQ combo
Replies: 16
Views: 1137

Re: TVIX/TQQQ combo

FYI TVIX seemingly is being delisted:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cred ... SKBN23T2BI
by occambogle
Sat Jun 20, 2020 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TVIX/TQQQ combo
Replies: 16
Views: 1137

Re: TVIX/TQQQ combo

Why only use VIX? Seems better to use TMF and some VIX-based "protection":

1 Year, see portfolio 3

10 Year, see portfolio 3
by occambogle
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?
Replies: 48
Views: 2544

Re: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?

sean.mcgrath wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:28 am
Given the AUM is more or less constant, what do you think drives the large swings in the rates to short a specific ETF?
No idea I'm afraid. But the day that AVDV got shorted it rose more than 2%... so I'm not going to follow the shorter's sentiment :-)
by occambogle
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?
Replies: 48
Views: 2544

Re: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?

Thanks, interesting. I'm sure expected volatility is the other variable driving rates. I might poke around a bit on your observation: that would say, for a given class of ETFs, I might get a small (tiny multiplied by even more tiny) advantage to picking the one with the smallest AUM assuming the ER...
by occambogle
Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?
Replies: 48
Views: 2544

Re: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?

Wow, I've never had a rate anywhere near that. This is why I wanted a way to look at the list -- I'd love to know which are the "go to" short ETF's in different classes. Assuming they know something , you are in for a wild ride with AVDV. :D I don't think higher rates are actually an indication of ...
by occambogle
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?
Replies: 48
Views: 2544

Re: Tax consequences of IB Stock Yield Enhancement program?

A minor update: it turns out you can add the short selling fee (%) for your holdings as a field in the IB app. It's sort of fun to see what the market demand is on betting that my ETF will go down (but no, I don't do anything with the information). Right now it will cost you 5.94% to short FNDF, bu...
by occambogle
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: super newbie.. please advise - 24F Singapore
Replies: 3
Views: 427

Re: super newbie.. please advise - 24F Singapore

I really know nothing about China ETFs, but a quick google turned up two iShares UCITs products: https://www.ishares.com/ch/institutional/en/products/308751/ishares-msci-china-ucits-etf-usd-acc-fund https://www.ishares.com/ch/institutional/en/products/273192/ishares-msci-china-a-ucits-etf That said ...