Search found 736 matches

by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:36 pm
Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital.
Are you saying it won't buy entrance anytime, or during a financial catastrophe?
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:15 pm
Wait...I've eaten gold leaf....

Me too! I have eaten silver foil as well, all on sweets. Perhaps I should have been mining them....
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3659
Views: 255628

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The way I see it, if we can "catch our breath" so to speak. Let hospitals get prepared, build up PPE, and have the public wear face masks in public in the interim and keep washing their hands - I think you can open the country back up and not start another pandemic. People may still get sick, I'm s...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Right now I can only go by official reporting, or with actual interviews with physicians. I don't know forum members personally to either accept or dismiss their claims. I agree with the rest of your post. I think for those cured they will scream loudly that it is a cure. For those not cured, the s...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. Indeed. But treatments also can take a long time to discover as well. Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already appr...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I agree in almost all cases but sometimes I think the opportunities for market timing are too great to pass. The entire topic is about predictions. I might be wrong, I put this here as a record so my mind does not play tricks on me :). But what is clear is that is way too early to predict what will...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Looking at people's behavior (comparing to other countries), it is clear to me that the virus will hit US very hard. I expect a fall in S&P 500 in few weeks when the dead start piling up. I am looking into buying puts or taking some money out of the market. Do it! Do you think the virus will not hi...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Starfish wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:07 pm
Looking at people's behavior (comparing to other countries), it is clear to me that the virus will hit US very hard. I expect a fall in S&P 500 in few weeks when the dead start piling up.
I am looking into buying puts or taking some money out of the market.
Do it!
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please
Replies: 32
Views: 3629

Re: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please

I became convinced that a "slice and dice" or "tilting" approach was going to be best for me - after all why would Vanguard offer all these different types of funds if they didn't serve some purpose? To help determine the best way to slice and dice things, I used This is where you went wrong. Life ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 52
Views: 5567

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Ari - good luck! I wanted to note one thing about your comment that your healthcare and unemployment is covered, hence there is no risk (except to your own money). That is true, with a caveat. There is no risk TO YOU, but someone always bears the risk. Risk doesn't go away, it just gets transferred....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 95
Views: 5814

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

Movie "Virus" (2019)

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/

It is a south Indian movie based on the Nipah virus outbreak in the state of Kerala. They made the movie a year after it happened. I enjoyed the movie.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt as an asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 908

Re: Debt as an asset class

Eggs are the new asset class. Toilet-paper store delivery schedules are weakly correlated with that of eggs. I strongly suggest you hold them in risk (of being out of stock) parity for the most optimal portfolio in these troubling times. 3x leverage helps too. Moto, I am taking notes. My future rid...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 11166

Re: I won the game but kept playing

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:42 pm

But if you expect the worst, you're never disappointed 8-)
:D That I agree with you.

100% misery, but 0% disappointment.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 11166

Re: I won the game but kept playing

The problem with this thinking is you don't know when the rebound will be because you don't know the path of the virus - there is no guarantee we get this under control, and even if it does peter out, no guarantee there aren't periodic waves or resurgences of it. This could be a year or more shutdo...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11327

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020. This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am. :D Finally a different kind of thread :beer I'm not sure your prediction will pan out. But if the world is ending, I'd rather go out hopeful and sh...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt as an asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 908

Re: Debt as an asset class

Eggs are the new asset class.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 103
Views: 12391

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Buffett is home, self isolating. Like everyone else.
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 109
Views: 4789

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:03 am
Why do investors with significant assets continue to use percentage based asset allocation? Wouldn't you want to start measuring risk in dollar terms or have a minimum amount of fixed measured in years of expenses?
Personal preferences I suppose.

I find the latter camp preferable myself.
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

Different banks have different rules. There are reports that Chase has forbidden precious metals other than collectible coins in safe deposit boxes: https://safedepositboxinsurance.com/2015/04/22/chase-frustrates-and-angers-safe-deposit-box-holders/. I don't know the reason. Interesting. Thanks! I ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

My parents always owned physical gold for "security". When I asked them the question of how that security will come to the rescue in the down times they say they're not sure how, or if they can even sell it. I wonder if this is just a generational thing. Baby boomers loving gold because of a genera...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

Can someone explain to me the mindset of the "I need physical gold" people? I thought physical gold people bought the metal versus those buying it as an ETF or what have you. Many people keep high value things in bank deposit boxes, no? Yes, although at least some banks prohibit storing gold or oth...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

jajlrajrf wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:28 am
Can someone explain to me the mindset of the "I need physical gold" people?
I thought physical gold people bought the metal versus those buying it as an ETF or what have you.

Many people keep high value things in bank deposit boxes, no?
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't investors like "boring"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1722

Re: Why don't investors like "boring"?

I like boring.


Some think boring is the quiet before a storm, so they panic.
Some are really bored, so they do something.
Some feel smart if they were constantly tweaking.
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any of you not rebalance?
Replies: 57
Views: 2822

Re: Do any of you not rebalance?

Hey Bogleheads, Do we have any among us who do not rebalance their portfolios? If this is you, do you always contribute per your AA? Maybe your desired AA is 70/30 and the market takes it up to 76/24 over a period of time. Do you always put new money in at 70/30 and essentially ignore the AA of the...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Replies: 302
Views: 13661

Re: Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?

OP - do it. You’ve made up your mind and likely any narrative you create over the unfolding months will hinge on “I knew”. “I knew and should have acted” or “I knew and it was better to be safe than sorry” OP - do it. Some people will agree, others will disagree. This can be substantiated by readin...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

I do not own any gold but in prior posts people have posted about; 1) Relatives using gold to bribe their way out of Vietnam when it was collapsing at the end of the Vietnam war and also to get out of Nazi Germany at the beginning of World War II. 2) Gold being a store of value in countries like In...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm

I have a little gold just in case its like the 1970s again. I sure wouldn't want to go back to the 70s. Bellbottoms....brrr...
I love 70s fashion! :D
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162802

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

And (in my opinion) Dr. Oz is not a reliable source for medical information. He is maybe one notch above Gwenyth Paltrow. This is a nonsensical statement. Oz is interviewing other physicians actually treating patients. His own qualification is irrelevant. Doctor Oz could be Gwyneth Paltrow for all ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162802

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Many (including posters on this board) are doing their best to "ignore false treatments! There is no proof! Nothing is true unless Dr.Fauci approves it in 4 years." Like he is the only physician in the country or the world. Odd elevation of singular people to god status during a crisis...whatever. D...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 32
Views: 2972

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

Raybo wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:43 pm
Posting
Another
Nutty
Investment
Comment
:sharebeer
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 133
Views: 8862

Re: There Is No Gold

We are trying to buy a bit of gold each year. My spouse takes care of it. Last time we paid $1570 I think in January. Unless our lives change significantly, we will buy gold again sometime late this year or early next yr. Regardless of price. We do not buy gold for appreciation or as an investment i...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?
Replies: 14
Views: 1306

Re: stock market goes up 5x every 15 years?

livesoft wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:34 am
I think you need to do your own analysis.
+1
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much (or little) do u talk to/teach others about finances
Replies: 36
Views: 1640

Re: How much (or little) do u talk to/teach others about finances

I talk different amounts with different people I do not interfere or provide unsolicited advice to anyone. When someone asks for it, I will share. My spouse and I talk as needed - we are on the same page, although I manage it. My close friend asks my counsel, so I advice. I am non committal and and ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 32
Views: 2972

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

Ok then.

*Is this the last thread?
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Housing Crisis 2.0
Replies: 6
Views: 1200

Re: Housing Crisis 2.0

This is now just disaster pron. Each thread talking about another disaster prediction with no information.

Wait and see. Who knows how things go.

Unless you just enjoy doomsday talk, then I'm sure starting this thread was the right thing to do.
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?
Replies: 108
Views: 6552

Re: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?

If the stocks fall by 50%, how many times expenses will you have? It's a rhetorical question. Emergency fund is often needed at times when your job and stocks are both down. 2000, 2008, 2020.... If you have a large taxable account that could fall from $2million to $1 million, and you would be happy...
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?
Replies: 108
Views: 6552

Re: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?

If we have 11x our expenses in taxable but it's in Total US and Total International, do we need an emergency fund or am I wasting away the 6 months in cash? I always struggle with this. If the stocks fall by 50%, how many times expenses will you have? It's a rhetorical question. Emergency fund is o...
by Unladen_Swallow
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4574
Views: 162802

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus


Emerging findings on the effects of temperature and humidity on Coronavirus:


"High temperature may reduce spread, but may not kill virus"

https://youtu.be/WAVlPaOzM_U

From WION news network based out of India.
Disclaimer - This is findings from ongoing research. This isn't advice.
by Unladen_Swallow
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 6282

Re: What is the point of stocks?

Seriously. What is the point of investing in passive index stocks? Basically every single person who started investing in the last 20 years, so basically everyone under 50 on this forum, would have been better off today if they just put money in a 1% CD. I sure hope there are some out there that ha...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28386

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Maybe it’s not different. But a pandemic is a different cause. I think the virus will be treatable ora vaccine created but it is not a sure thing. If no vaccine or treatment this will be a different world. Maybe. Or maybe it mutates into something less lethal like the Spanish Flu did. Or worse. No-...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28386

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Maybe it’s not different. But a pandemic is a different cause. I think the virus will be treatable ora vaccine created but it is not a sure thing. If no vaccine or treatment this will be a different world. Maybe. Or maybe it mutates into something less lethal like the Spanish Flu did. Or worse. No-...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Call For Compassion
Replies: 58
Views: 4549

Re: A Call For Compassion

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:41 pm
I don't know if it is intentional or not but the are several posters that seemed determined to scare people and possibly influencing them to make behavioral mistakes. And that is just wrong imho.
100%
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8592

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years? I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28386

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:39 pm
I find volatility a useless metric for risk. It is why I do not rebalance nor have an asset allocation. I am an optimist.
This is me in a nutshell.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a BH strategy if you're E-Fund isn't big enough during the crash?
Replies: 31
Views: 1232

Re: Is there a BH strategy if you're E-Fund isn't big enough during the crash?

I'm just wondering, but with all the talk about e-funds and selling, is there a best practices if one finds out that one's e-fund is too small? Immediately liquidate some assets and build the liquid e-fund up to where it should be? Do nothing and stay the course until a layoff actually happens? Hyp...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling a little buyer-holders remorse....
Replies: 8
Views: 575

Re: Feeling a little buyer-holders remorse....

You're just fine.

Focus on your immediate concerns - family, job, health.
Ignore stuff that doesn't matter today - your portfolio