Search found 763 matches

by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 22421

Re: Market makes no sense

After a decade of being a stable, passive investor, I'm tempted to time the market. Can someone help talk me off the ledge? I don't understand how we can have a recession with such massive unemployment, companies going bankrupt and closing stores, a likely virus resurgence leading to further decrea...
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did the abrupt recovery create a false sense of security?
Replies: 33
Views: 2691

Re: Did the abrupt recovery create a false sense of security?

I was 100% equities before the crisis, and am the same now. Contributions continued, but not in any significant amount to make a difference. I am an optimist and have faith in our collective ability to always do well . But I don't pretend to know if we are in for a drawdown or a spike upward in the ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did I miss my only chance for TLH?
Replies: 12
Views: 930

Re: Did I miss my only chance for TLH?

I wouldn't worry. Just means the drawdown was quick, and you are back to where you started.

In your investing lifetime, there will be other opportunities to TLH. This was but a blip.
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15193
Views: 1172760

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

NBER: US economy officially in recession. I thought that nisiprius said that they didn't make such announcements until after the recession was over. But there's no way that that's the case right now. But of course, the recession has been a foregone conclusion for months now. A couple of months ago ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?
Replies: 129
Views: 9515

Re: Anyone not bother with Tax Loss Harvesting?

I am not an active TLH-er. I typically let it ride. I am not lazy for nothing.

I did TLH a few weeks ago. Definitely not at the bottom, but some benefit.
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed May 27, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15193
Views: 1172760

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

InvestingGeek wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:55 am Glass-half-empty thought: All this soaring means I'm going to continue to accumulate at expensive prices portending poor future returns :oops:

I was half-hoping for a nice subdued market for a decade or so.
What??!!
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun May 10, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 258
Views: 22863

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

I got a haircut yesterday. At the salon. It was an excellent day for all involved. Me too. Got it cut Wednesday. I called the Friday before after seeing the email announcing the reopening and that was the first appointment available. When I went in they said they now have a waiting list two pages l...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun May 10, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 258
Views: 22863

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

I got a haircut yesterday. At the salon.

It was an excellent day for all involved.
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Preliminary findings from antibody testing in New York (source - Governors press presentation) reveals that NYC has a 21% infected rate. That is what, 3 million infected? *multiple publications are estimating Fatality rate between 0.2-0.4. Not quite the 3-4% that..... Once again you need to reminde...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Preliminary findings from antibody testing in New York (source - Governors press presentation) reveals that NYC has a 21% infected rate. That is what, 3 million infected? *multiple publications are estimating Fatality rate between 0.2-0.4. Not quite the 3-4% that..... A good news bad news situation...
by Unladen_Swallow
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Preliminary findings from antibody testing in New York (source - Governors press presentation) reveals that NYC has a 21% infected rate. That is what, 3 million infected?


*multiple publications are estimating Fatality rate between 0.2-0.4. Not quite the 3-4% that.....
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

All the internet experts were so sure that CV19 was 30-40 times more lethal than the flu. More transmittable and more lethal! Antibody testing in Santa Clara county in CA - Stanford study: COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethalit...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

All the internet experts were so sure that CV19 was 30-40 times more lethal than the flu. More transmittable and more lethal! Antibody testing in Santa Clara county in CA - Stanford study: COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Corona has changed nothing for me. No lifestyle, financial, or medical changes.

I have a greater appreciation of what I do have. And an even greater appreciation of wisdom from the elders. My dad has been more on point during this disaster than any expert.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?
Replies: 92
Views: 4250

Re: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?

Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'? If so, what is that 'X' that is written into your Investment Policy Statement (IPS)? I do not have such an IPS myself. How about a variation such as 'I will sell 80% of portfolio equities when X happens'? I do not. I don'...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund - part of Asset Allocation?
Replies: 96
Views: 4834

Re: Emergency Fund - part of Asset Allocation?

Emergency fund part of asset allocation?

No.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 33330

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

epicahab wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:35 pm My suspicion is that outrageously historic unemployment numbers combined with bad earnings reports from companies will at some point HAVE to affect equity prices.
So the S&P has been unchanged and still at 3300?
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:55 am
On the other hand, if people are cooped up at home, they may take up risky habits like drinking and drugs.
And power eating :shock:
I will provide pro tips for free.
by Unladen_Swallow
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I'm afraid I don't see where on the IHME website I can view the past projections in order to compare to data since prior updates were made were made. Unfortunately, I did not save those forecasts to make my own comparisons, and the IHME's data visualization tool does not appear to be able to show p...
by Unladen_Swallow
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80775

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The IHME Murray model has not been anywhere in the ballpark. Errors of 70% overestimation (with assumption of 100% social distancing) when compared to actual hospitalizations, beds needed, deaths etc. Good news - things are looking up. That is excellent. *IMHE projections can be compared to actual d...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1800
Views: 152689

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Buy one or two cases of bottle waters too. That makes no sense. The faucets in the bathrooms will provide water. We have plenty of empty plastic bottles that normally would get recycled that can be filled up instead if one needs a water bottle. It would make more sense to buy one or two cases of Dr...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 258
Views: 22863

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

I have looked like a tramp for a month. It will continue.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 200753

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

An international poll of more than 6,000 doctors finds that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine has been deemed the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus . "Largest Statistically Significant Study by 6,200 Multi-Country Physicians on COVID-19 Uncovers Treatment Patterns an...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 325380

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks I find it strange too, but this "should be" temporary. Maybe. But that's probably what the average thought is. 10 million will go BACK TO WORK in a month or two, and we still ge...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 325380

Re: Coronavirus and the market

9Plus there's talk of another trillion for infrastructure. (A trillion here, a trillion there, and sooner or later, you're talking about some real money) Sorry about the fragmented replies. I heard about the infrastructure proposal. I would be curious to see which industries these would be allocate...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 325380

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks I find it strange too, but this "should be" temporary. Maybe. But that's probably what the average thought is. 10 million will go BACK TO WORK in a month or two, and we still ge...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FDIC announces first bank failure since [but not because of] coronavirus crisis
Replies: 12
Views: 1971

Re: FDIC announces first bank failure since [but not because of] coronavirus crisis

Kenkat wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:17 pm Sensationalist Journalism 101 - Lesson 1 - Writing headlines to elicit fear and panic
You are absolutely correct. But most people read only headlines. The OP seemed to be under that impression as well.

Damage is done. Fear and panic continues.
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 13103

Re: There Is No Gold

columbia wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:36 pm Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital.
Are you saying it won't buy entrance anytime, or during a financial catastrophe?
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 13103

Re: There Is No Gold

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:15 pm Wait...I've eaten gold leaf....

Me too! I have eaten silver foil as well, all on sweets. Perhaps I should have been mining them....
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Right now I can only go by official reporting, or with actual interviews with physicians. I don't know forum members personally to either accept or dismiss their claims. I agree with the rest of your post. I think for those cured they will scream loudly that it is a cure. For those not cured, the s...
by Unladen_Swallow
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. Indeed. But treatments also can take a long time to discover as well. Treatment trials are underway in the US. France and India have already appr...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

The market can bounce back quickly even if we never find a vaccine, as long as we find the treatment. There are many illnesses that don't have a vaccine. I am not certain SP500 will be back to previous levels this quickly. I think in another thread I predicted early 2022. I can't even remember now.....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I agree in almost all cases but sometimes I think the opportunities for market timing are too great to pass. The entire topic is about predictions. I might be wrong, I put this here as a record so my mind does not play tricks on me :). But what is clear is that is way too early to predict what will...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Looking at people's behavior (comparing to other countries), it is clear to me that the virus will hit US very hard. I expect a fall in S&P 500 in few weeks when the dead start piling up. I am looking into buying puts or taking some money out of the market. Do it! Do you think the virus will no...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Starfish wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:07 pm Looking at people's behavior (comparing to other countries), it is clear to me that the virus will hit US very hard. I expect a fall in S&P 500 in few weeks when the dead start piling up.
I am looking into buying puts or taking some money out of the market.
Do it!
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please
Replies: 42
Views: 5492

Re: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please

I became convinced that a "slice and dice" or "tilting" approach was going to be best for me - after all why would Vanguard offer all these different types of funds if they didn't serve some purpose? To help determine the best way to slice and dice things, I used This is where y...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8403

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Ari - good luck! I wanted to note one thing about your comment that your healthcare and unemployment is covered, hence there is no risk (except to your own money). That is true, with a caveat. There is no risk TO YOU, but someone always bears the risk. Risk doesn't go away, it just gets transferred....
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 7345

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

Movie "Virus" (2019)

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/

It is a south Indian movie based on the Nipah virus outbreak in the state of Kerala. They made the movie a year after it happened. I enjoyed the movie.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt as an asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1042

Re: Debt as an asset class

Eggs are the new asset class. Toilet-paper store delivery schedules are weakly correlated with that of eggs. I strongly suggest you hold them in risk (of being out of stock) parity for the most optimal portfolio in these troubling times. 3x leverage helps too. Moto, I am taking notes. My future rid...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12368

Re: I won the game but kept playing

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:42 pm
But if you expect the worst, you're never disappointed 8-)
:D That I agree with you.

100% misery, but 0% disappointment.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12368

Re: I won the game but kept playing

The problem with this thinking is you don't know when the rebound will be because you don't know the path of the virus - there is no guarantee we get this under control, and even if it does peter out, no guarantee there aren't periodic waves or resurgences of it. This could be a year or more shutdo...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 24459

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

I have a prediction that the market will be at an all time high by 12/31/2020. This thread will be revisited on that date to show the genius that I am. :D Finally a different kind of thread :beer I'm not sure your prediction will pan out. But if the world is ending, I'd rather go out hopeful and sh...
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt as an asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1042

Re: Debt as an asset class

Eggs are the new asset class.
by Unladen_Swallow
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26430

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Buffett is home, self isolating. Like everyone else.
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 154
Views: 10464

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:03 am Why do investors with significant assets continue to use percentage based asset allocation? Wouldn't you want to start measuring risk in dollar terms or have a minimum amount of fixed measured in years of expenses?
Personal preferences I suppose.

I find the latter camp preferable myself.
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 13103

Re: There Is No Gold

Different banks have different rules. There are reports that Chase has forbidden precious metals other than collectible coins in safe deposit boxes: https://safedepositboxinsurance.com/2015/04/22/chase-frustrates-and-angers-safe-deposit-box-holders/. I don't know the reason. Interesting. Thanks! I ...
by Unladen_Swallow
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 13103

Re: There Is No Gold

My parents always owned physical gold for "security". When I asked them the question of how that security will come to the rescue in the down times they say they're not sure how, or if they can even sell it. I wonder if this is just a generational thing. Baby boomers loving gold because o...