Search found 43 matches

by nullisland
Mon May 04, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 223
Views: 13152

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Hoping people are overemphasizing parks + theaters and discounting what I see as a very bright future in streaming, such that the stock is currently mispriced. I won't try to talk you out of this, but I will strongly encourage you to do the work to demonstrate that the stock is mispriced. Don't jus...
by nullisland
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even saving for retirement?
Replies: 223
Views: 19853

Re: Why am I even saving for retirement?

It's a decision about how much risk you want to take on. Two things to think about: 1. When one of you dies, the surviving spouse will only get half the amount you were getting as a couple. Survivor benefits aren't on top of your individual benefits, you pick the higher of the two. 2. For high incom...
by nullisland
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I Got Scammed To Send Amazon Gift Cards
Replies: 119
Views: 9348

Re: I Got Scammed To Send Amazon Gift Cards

No, I'm not gonna report this. Please do report this to the FTC, the federal government takes this more seriously than you might think and these reports help keep others from getting scammed in the same way. You don't even have to talk to anybody, there's an online form you fill out at https://www....
by nullisland
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we spending too much on a house? 28yo & 24yo
Replies: 89
Views: 6113

Re: Are we spending too much on a house? 28yo & 24yo

What are your current housing costs? Unless you have an urgent desire to move, if you're paying any meaningful amount less than the PITI for the house then I'd recommend staying where you are and saving the difference until you need the space (in other words, buy a house a year before you plan to ha...
by nullisland
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 295
Views: 22876

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

NTSX is such a low-daily-volume ETF (~10's of thousands of shares at ~28/share), what would your strategy be for buying into it if your buy alone could be equivalent to a significant fraction of the daily volume? Just put in a limit order and wait? Call your broker (for the purposes of this forum, ...
by nullisland
Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Margin
Replies: 21
Views: 1257

Re: Portfolio Margin

M1 allows you to take out 35% margin on your equity balance. If you hold 100% NTSX and then use the 35% borrowed money to buy more NTSX, that raises your total exposure to 125/75. I like it. I tried this but M1 unfortunately doesn’t consider NTSX to be a marginable security, apparently due to its l...
by nullisland
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 190
Views: 16388

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Sorry if this question have already been answere. Would anyone do 100% NTSX in a TAXABLE account and keep contributing to that and just that ? thanks VJ NTSX is very tax-efficient and is appropriate to hold in a taxable account. As for whether 100% NTSX is appropriate, that's more about what you wa...
by nullisland
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 190
Views: 16388

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

PSLDX is essentially a leveraged index fund, if you want to replicate you really just need to match the exposures of their benchmark (100% S&P 500 + 100% Long-Term Gov/Credit - 3-month LIBOR). This gets close with monthly rebalancing: * 35% UPRO * 20% TMF * 45% BLV (Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF) Much...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity shuts 3 (Treasury) MM Funds to New Investors
Replies: 91
Views: 6979

Re: Fidelity shuts 3 (Treasury) MM Funds to New Investors

Sounds like a consequence of the accounting rules used by money market funds to value their assets. Since they hold to maturity, money market funds typically use the amortized cost of their assets, not the current market value. It's short-term debt so this doesn't usually matter, but rapid changes i...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

No, I'm not trolling you. I just don't see how the math you've stated above worked out. The explanation you gave for SWAN going down on March 24, 2020 while the S&P 500 went up 7% is that long-term treasuries went down the same amount as the S&P went up so as to cancel out. But TLT (iShares Long Te...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

These are long term LEAP's. They are not very liquid and are not marked properly at the end of day. For what it's worth, the open interest on the June call is over 5000 and today's volume was around 1500. And the options aren't particularly long term -- they purchase them a little over a year out, ...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

EDIT: Sorry, just read your comment again, this might be a point of confusion: The only way someone would pay a premium for out of the money options is if they think the options will become in the money before they expire, i.e., that the S&P 500 will go down between now and then These are call opti...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

I think your confusion is just not understanding options -- that 1% it had yesterday was not of SPY, but of option contracts (each one getting exposure to 100 shares of spy). These are leveraged, and it's expected they would go up more than the S&P. But I thought you (or someone) said that the opti...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to switch from ETF to Mutual Fund
Replies: 7
Views: 501

Re: Best way to switch from ETF to Mutual Fund

I am thinking I can do this: sell the ETF at 3:55pm right before the market closes and put an order in for the mutual fund. If I get the order in for the mutual fund before the market closes, hopefully I can lock in on that day's NAV for the mutual fund. Maybe I should wait for calmer times to make...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

Someone purchasing it today is getting a dramatically different product than someone who purchased at the beginning of January shortly after their last rebalance, for example. This isn't something you need to worry about with NTSX. How often does NTSX rebalance? Thanks. Quarterly, or when it deviat...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

Sure - rascott explained that above though -- because of devaluation of the equity portion it's basically treasuries (~99%), so it's acting like treasuries. So then it does NOT have a .80 correlation to VOO, unless the moon is full and the stars are aligned. It's just a mystery box, not unlike the ...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt
Replies: 62
Views: 4460

Re: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
So is that a buy recommendation?
lol. Not investment advice. For what it's worth I do not own any high-yield corporate bonds. I do not expect to purchase any. I do find the high-yield spread an interesting economic data point.
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

S&P 500 closed up 9.38% SWAN is down 0.68% Nobody seems to know why. SWAN is definitely not behaving day to day as it was designed. Two reasons 1. Stocks have fallen so much it's LEAPS are too much Out of the money.. As SPY went from 233 to 243 today, it's leaps were for 245 and 283.. too high.. 2....
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt
Replies: 62
Views: 4460

Re: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt

Top 5 holdings of each: BOA-MTG TRIPARTY REPO Sprint Corp. CRC Escrow Issuer LLC / CRC Finco Inc. TD TRIPARTY MORTGAGE RBC TRIPARTY MTGE vs Qatar Government International Bond Petroleos Mexicanos Kingdom of Saudi Arabia State of Qatar Petroleos Mexicanos Or, more specifically, US mortgage backed de...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

One thing to note, for people who may be considering this fund, is that the holdings vary depending on when you buy it. They rebalance half of their options exposure each June and December but otherwise let it ride. If you buy the fund right now, for example, you're buying nearly 99% Treasuries and ...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Munis instead of Treasuries in a No-Income Tax State?
Replies: 7
Views: 434

Re: Munis instead of Treasuries in a No-Income Tax State?

I think the answer depends on your overall asset allocation. Over the last few decades, treasuries have been more negatively correlated with the stock market, so they've been a better diversifier for equity-heavy portfolios . In 2008, for example, Vanguard's Intermediate-Term Treasury fund went up 1...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Form 8606 Help
Replies: 6
Views: 519

Re: Form 8606 Help

That's correct if this is the first time you've contributed to an IRA, yes. If you convert to a Roth this year, then you'll receive a 1099-R reporting the conversion next year. Since the contribution was non-deductible you won't pay tax on the basis, but you still need to report the conversion. In t...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary
Replies: 47
Views: 4323

Re: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary

So it was really the only job offer I didn't want to risk losing with gambling on salary. You do not need to worry about losing an offer by asking for more. I can't emphasize that enough. They may say no, so don't frame it as an ultimatum unless you're actually willing to walk away, but there's abs...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary
Replies: 47
Views: 4323

Re: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary

So this is something I keep thinking about. I accecpted a new job offer in January this year, will start there in May. Base salary is 85k gross. After talking with some friends in my field and age, I learned that they had offers for 85-90k and someone even for 95k. Now I keep asking myself: why did...
by nullisland
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND Fell Today
Replies: 143
Views: 12987

Re: BND Fell Today

BND includes around 35% corporate bonds, which have credit risk. The Treasuries in the fund were up modestly today, but corporate bonds were down significantly (for comparison, VCT, Vanguard's Total Corporate Bond ETF, was down 2.24%). The overall result was a slight loss. Credit risk for bonds tend...
by nullisland
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 167
Views: 15829

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

This fund hasn't gotten the same attention as NTSX, but so far it's doing exactly what it's supposed to. Down less than 2% right now, when the S&P is down over 7%, and still close to an all-time high. Looks like it bottomed at about 6% off the peak last week, and has since recovered. In 2019 it had ...
by nullisland
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15417

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

Everyone keeps perseverating over whether the appropriate comparison for NTSX is a pure S&P 500 fund or an unleveraged 60/40 fund. The correct answer is: neither. Yep. Shockingly, it turns out that US large caps and leveraged treasuries perform just like US large caps and leveraged treasuries: sinc...
by nullisland
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 295
Views: 22876

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

With 10 year treasury yield below 1% how will the bond portion of NTSX beat the effective margin rate? I'm not saying it can't just trying to understand... If the yield curve is inverted then the treasury futures contracts may have negative carry, but an inverted yield curve usually means short-ter...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous
Replies: 63
Views: 6861

Re: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

Thesis is that if "everyone" piles into bonds and bond funds, and then we get some good news (e.g., coronavirus not as bad as feared, no recession, etc.), that could lead to huge losses in bond funds and bonds. This is one reason even the most conservative asset allocation should include some stock...
by nullisland
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k provider transition & market dip
Replies: 10
Views: 546

Re: 401k provider transition & market dip

This is honestly one of the better use-cases for leveraged ETFs. If you know in advance the days you'll be out of the market you can buy something like UPRO in another account to maintain at least partial exposure. Caveats: this won't work if the transfer comes as a surprise, or if you don't have si...
by nullisland
Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription
Replies: 125
Views: 9313

Re: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription

I’m honestly surprised they’re charging so little for a commercial license. Most people buying this for professional use won’t care if it’s $39 or $99, they’re leaving money on the table by not giving people the opportunity to pay more. SaaS pricing makes more sense if you compare it to the cost of ...
by nullisland
Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 295
Views: 22876

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I had more luck with placing a 'Market' order than a Limit order. A Limit order even close to asking price didn't get filled, so replaced with a market order and it filled right away very close to NAV, below my previous limit order price. It happened twice, so I'm thinking there's more to it than j...
by nullisland
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15417

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

I'm not convinced that NTSX merely offers 50% more risk and return than a 60/40 portfolio. If it did, then the Sharpe ratio should be about the same for both. But over the admittedly brief history of NTSX, that hasn't been the case. The Sharpe ratio for NTSX since September of 2017 was .78, whereas...
by nullisland
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15417

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

I think I must be misunderstanding something. If the objective is "to provide returns and risk consistent with a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio", why not just invest in 60% stocks and 40% bonds? What am I missing? What is the advantage to using this fund versus, say, 60% VTSAX and 40% VBTLX, if returns...
by nullisland
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4958
Views: 430407

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Since I do not have bonds, I believe NTSX would be less tax-efficient than my other assets. Does this mean I would be better off keeping it in the tax-advantaged account, until I am old enough to hold bonds? NTSX is quite tax efficient, I wouldn't really spend too much time thinking about it. It mi...
by nullisland
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FANG - Salary expectation for Sr Engineer
Replies: 17
Views: 3653

Re: FANG - Salary expectation for Sr Engineer

It's important to remember that compensation is negotiable, far more so than many people think. This is particularly true for senior roles, or roles that require unique skills. It would not be unprecedented to negotiate for $200k more in total comp than you're initially offered for this kind of role...
by nullisland
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
Replies: 652
Views: 68445

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Anyone else really dig into the return of PSLDX? It looks impressive but if you compare it to its benchmark index which is just S&P 500 + Long Term treasury futrues - CASH it seems that it it really isn't adding much value. Some years it slightly beats its index and some years it slightly trails. W...
by nullisland
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding REIT and Int'l Bonds to AA - best way to transition?
Replies: 35
Views: 1909

Re: Adding REIT and Int'l Bonds to AA - best way to transition?

Sure but I was asking about market cap of real estate. It's true that total world index funds include very little real estate. OP chose 8%, why? MSCI estimates that the global commercial real estate market is worth roughly $9 Trillion; a little over $3 Trillion of that is in the US. This is around ...
by nullisland
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding REIT and Int'l Bonds to AA - best way to transition?
Replies: 35
Views: 1909

Re: Adding REIT and Int'l Bonds to AA - best way to transition?

Sure but I was asking about market cap of real estate. It's true that total world index funds include very little real estate. OP chose 8%, why? MSCI estimates that the global commercial real estate market is worth roughly $9 Trillion; a little over $3 Trillion of that is in the US. This is around ...
by nullisland
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reversing 529 contribution - rookie mistake, rookie question
Replies: 6
Views: 664

Re: Reversing 529 contribution - rookie mistake, rookie question

I'd leave the extra contribution in, if your financial circumstances allow. It's true that only the earnings (which are minimal in your case) of a non-qualified withdrawal are subject to federal and state income tax + the 10% federal penalty, but you may lose the entire state tax credit for last yea...
by nullisland
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 191
Views: 19339

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

I think there are two different issues here, they're getting a little conflated. 1. How do you best diversify a portfolio that's heavily tilted toward market beta, but doesn't otherwise have significant idiosyncratic risk? This sounds a lot like the "Betting Against Beta" factor from AQR. The propos...
by nullisland
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Broadway Show
Replies: 17
Views: 890

Re: Broadway Show

Oklahoma and Hadestown are also fantastic, if you want to see more than one show or if Hamilton tickets don't work out.

Ordinarily I'd say to take the train, but Maine is far enough that flying probably makes more sense. Don't drive into the city. I usually stay in Midtown near Penn Station.
by nullisland
Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 10 biggest new ETFs of 2019
Replies: 14
Views: 1574

Re: The 10 biggest new ETFs of 2019

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:25 am
Don’t knock it until you’ve tried it.

https://www.bvp.com/news/bvp-nasdaq-eme ... loud-index

These are the only individual stocks I own.
WisdomTree has a new ETF (WCLD) tracking this index now, if you want to simplify things: https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/thematic/wcld