Search found 28 matches

by CheepSkate
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some observation when trying to buy a new car
Replies: 35
Views: 4371

Re: Some observation when trying to buy a new car

We were able to test drive models of the car we were looking at, but did not want to pay for the dealer add-on items, like $150 floor mats or $100 trunk appliqué or $250 pinstripes, etc. We also demanded that our car not have the dealer’s logo stenciled on the back. All models in stock had been alte...
by CheepSkate
Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Concrete stairs on front porch are crooked, best way to fix?
Replies: 16
Views: 1482

Re: Concrete stairs on front porch are crooked, best way to fix?

Build wood steps over the top of the concrete steps and leave the concrete steps hidden underneath. But I think floating out the steps level with new concrete would be even easier than that. Under a coat of porch paint it will look great. Does the roof drip onto the steps and contribute to the settl...
by CheepSkate
Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reason to not buy this car?
Replies: 66
Views: 4636

Re: Any reason to not buy this car?

It’s a good car, but because a dealer has it you probably cannot buy it for a reasonable price (I.e. blue book value). It will not be maintenance free because rubber parts deteriorate, including seals, coolant hoses, AC hoses, CV joint boots, shock boots, fuel pump seals, brake seals, transmission s...
by CheepSkate
Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has the economy not crashed yet?
Replies: 36
Views: 2457

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

I like all this fear and doubt about the market. It makes me feel like we haven't peaked yet. When we get to the point that people are asking if they should take out HELOCs to invest in the market, that's when I go 'uh oh'. So what I’m thinking is, I should do this now and exit the position when ev...
by CheepSkate
Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 353
Views: 355340

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Wow. This thread is some hardcore jitters therapy. To hear how scared people were 50% or 100% or 150% ago, and how there was always some sort of economic crisis on the horizon, to read those old links - just an amazing perspective! And to read the accounts of people putting it all in money market ac...
by CheepSkate
Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is this for real? [ProShares Pet Care ETF (PAWZ)]
Replies: 16
Views: 1303

Re: is this for real? [ProShares Pet Care ETF (PAWZ)]

What would be the best multi-year way to short shit poop like this and go long the total stock market?
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I Retire?
Replies: 63
Views: 7855

Re: Can I Retire?

1) Yes you can retire at a 3.5% WR. Your odds of following the plan and still running out of money are similar to your odds of dying in a commuting accident or from office chair syndrome or getting cancer from adulterated office coffee. Your odds of financial success are something like 98%. Then you...
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly managing parent's portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2140

Re: Suddenly managing parent's portfolio

Is $6k / month enough to pay all their bills? I.e. $72,000 per year is their spending rate? I want to clarify because if their spending is too high, no AA is going to make up for that. Likewise, if their spending is low enough, their security is assured even with 38% of assets in cash. Now would be ...
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deversity and Heavy Metal
Replies: 17
Views: 755

Re: Deversity and Heavy Metal

You would not be hedged against the scenario where stocks go down, PMs go down, and cryptocurrencies turn out to be fads/bubbles. I know many YouTube conspiracy theorists believe such a combo of events would be impossible, but consider the past predictive reliability of anyone in the 21st century! S...
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Options outside "The Market"
Replies: 12
Views: 681

Re: Investment Options outside "The Market"

I assume even buying an ETF like VTI could be construed as a conflict of interest in your profession? You might talk to a broker or lawyer about setting up a blind trust. That seems to satisfy most conflict of interest issues for US politicians - in normal times. The costs to set this up would proba...
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ "Economists got the decade all wrong"
Replies: 40
Views: 5353

Re: WSJ "Economists got the decade all wrong"

If there was market demand for financial forecasts, accurate or not, which are relatively easy to manufacture, would it even be possible for a market to exist where there were no financial forecasts? I.e. If financial websites and networks were offering $30k for anyone with a certain pedigree to sta...
by CheepSkate
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

A call plus cash invested at risk free rate is identical to just having 200 shares of SPY and buying protective put. Assuming strikes of each option is the same. As others have pointed out. The protective put will almost always be more tax efficient since over time the market rises and we would exp...
by CheepSkate
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 120575

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Actually yes, 3% real return is attractive. As you say, the alternative is losing purchasing power in bonds, net of taxes. EPS growth can probably expand to equal GDP growth of 2% world wide, slightly better than your forecast. Also, if the underlying businesses are generating cash at anything like...
by CheepSkate
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Found hidden safe, should we crack?
Replies: 303
Views: 85989

Re: Found hidden safe, should we crack?

FoolMeOnce wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:18 am
I think if you start a crowdfunding page, everyone in this thread would chip in a few bucks.
Meaning the OP never has to open the safe to get treasure!

In fact, the OP could milk this for years.
by CheepSkate
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

I will not talk you out of it. I want you to do it and report your results here. Good luck. The result of the strategy at any given market outcome is known, but the future market outcome is not. A year or two from now, when market outcomes are known, we will also know the outcome this strategy woul...
by CheepSkate
Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

As you know, buying a call has the same payoff profile as buying the underlying shares and buying a put. However, there are differences in taxes. When you own the underlying shares, you can delay realizing gains and paying taxes, potentially forever. Also, puts tend to depreciate on average over ti...
by CheepSkate
Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Found hidden safe, should we crack?
Replies: 303
Views: 85989

Re: Found hidden safe, should we crack?

My house came with a very large, very rusty, very old safe in the garage that has been locked since before the PO bought the house. It’s maybe 40 inches square and is on iron wheels - probably 500lbs. I’ve lived with it for a year. Might roll it to the curb to free up space someday. I think it’s dou...
by CheepSkate
Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.
Replies: 27
Views: 4628

Re: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.

1) Understand that nobody has these answers with definitive Truth. The outcome of the DCA vs. lump sum decision will depend on whether stocks go up or down and the movement of inflation / interest rates. Similarly, a more conservative AA will do better if stocks go down and a more aggressive AA will...
by CheepSkate
Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: buying VIX
Replies: 13
Views: 1258

Re: buying VIX

It's not a security it's an index. Everyone would be rich if one can buy at 12 and wait. The market isn't dumb and knows it pops to 20+ periodically so the VIX futures and options are priced by the market to reflect that it surges periodically. There's no free lunch. I tracked a few VIX options for...
by CheepSkate
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: buying VIX
Replies: 13
Views: 1258

Re: buying VIX

Buying VIX would be like buying inches or kilograms. It’s a measurement index, not a fund. There are funds that trade futures on VIX, such as UVXY and SVXY, but these suffer from severe trading and contango losses, and are only for short term purposes, like hedging a day trade. See sixfigureinvestin...
by CheepSkate
Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to hold title to rental properties
Replies: 15
Views: 1408

Re: How to hold title to rental properties

Hypothetical: Would the OP - assuming no mortgages- be able to skip some closing costs if s/he could just sell the LLC and all properties inside it to a cash buyer rather than doing an actual real estate transaction with all the associated fees, taxes, etc? Or more directly, is there a way to put RE...
by CheepSkate
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Homebuying in Los Angeles - Advice Needed
Replies: 77
Views: 7898

Re: Homebuying in Los Angeles - Advice Needed

Three thoughts. 1) My 3/2 house on a quarter-acre lot on a charming and quiet street in a safe neighborhood 10 minutes from my downtown cost me $155k just last year. My payment is under $1k for a 15 year loan. The whole middle class suburban lifestyle could be had for $40k/year for a family of 3, so...
by CheepSkate
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 120575

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@market timer

What do you think about the portfolio I describe here? viewtopic.php?f=10&t=294506
by CheepSkate
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

The thing is, it's a limited downside. A normal S&P 500 index fund position has, realistically, 40% possible downside per year. So to compare the odds of a single-digit annual loss with the odds of losing so much more requires some odds-based estimation of potential returns. Similarly, the certainty...
by CheepSkate
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Ideas
Replies: 89
Views: 6712

Re: Investment Ideas

1) Use it to max out the 401(k) plus a traditional IRA. Collect the tax savings. 2) Invest in a money market fund or short-term bond ETF. Yes, the yield will be lower than interest on the debt by 1-2% per year. 3) At a net cost of only 1-2% a year, hide and wait. Market corrections of 20% or more te...
by CheepSkate
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

The missed dividends (1.78%) are offset by having 90% of the portfolio invested in short-term cash/debt instruments like BSV which yield about the same. Thus the true maximum loss is the time decay of the call options, which is about -10%/2.2 years = -4.5% per year, plus interest of maybe 1.7% of th...
by CheepSkate
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 117
Views: 15766

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

No one should own a long-duration bond fund who can't tell me how much value it will lose if interest rates or inflation popped up 2% unexpectedly.

Spoiler: a lot.
Spoiler 2: plus another great financial crisis.
by CheepSkate
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calls and Cash: talk me out of it
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Calls and Cash: talk me out of it

Long time lurker, first time poster! I am considering a defensive options strategy and need counterarguments. Suppose one wanted to de-risk a portfolio, which for discussion's sake is comprised of 2000 shares of SPY. The obvious answer might be to buy protective put options, but this would reduce on...