Search found 312 matches

by Ocean77
Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market madness portfolio
Replies: 72
Views: 3723

Re: Market madness portfolio

I am thinking a combination of : - Cryptocurrencies - fine art, wine, collectibles - especially modern art from artists still alive and working - SPACs - pink sheet stocks in USA (& equivalents) - US stocks & the big 5 internet stocks (of course) - particularly given the weight of argument ...
by Ocean77
Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any downsides to Mega Backdoor even for Roth eligible?
Replies: 29
Views: 1487

Re: Any downsides to Mega Backdoor even for Roth eligible?

Other than the additional work of doing this, is there any reason someone skirting with 180-196 AGI should instead do a direct Roth ? Why not do both? I max out the 401k in all regards. The after-tax 401k contribution then goes into a Roth via the Mega Backdoor. Then in addition, I put the max ($70...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain
Replies: 26
Views: 2650

Re: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain

When a regular ETF trades at a discount or premium, institutions jump in and that differential is quickly removed in a process called arbitrage. I.e. if the ETF trades at a discount, an institution can buy ETF shares on the open market and trade them in with the ETF sponsor for the underlying share...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain
Replies: 26
Views: 2650

Re: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain

When a regular ETF trades at a discount or premium, institutions jump in and that differential is quickly removed in a process called arbitrage. I.e. if the ETF trades at a discount, an institution can buy ETF shares on the open market and trade them in with the ETF sponsor for the underlying share...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain
Replies: 26
Views: 2650

Re: Bitcoin geniuses, please explain

When a regular ETF trades at a discount or premium, institutions jump in and that differential is quickly removed in a process called arbitrage. I.e. if the ETF trades at a discount, an institution can buy ETF shares on the open market and trade them in with the ETF sponsor for the underlying shares...
by Ocean77
Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Lottery Tickets: Playing Devil's Advocate
Replies: 36
Views: 2358

Re: Buying Lottery Tickets: Playing Devil's Advocate

It probably can't be outright stock positions, because the improbable payoff would have to be big enough to offset the more likely losing/underperformance of most of the bets. Options positions, on the other hand, might only have to succeed once to pay for a lifetime of improbable bets. I have a li...
by Ocean77
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [William Bernstein: The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups]
Replies: 40
Views: 7571

Re: New William Bernstein book

My copy arrived yesterday. Looking forward to read it!
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Money: what's the justification for buying Bonds in 2021?
Replies: 25
Views: 2667

Re: New Money: what's the justification for buying Bonds in 2021?

This "financial repression" is all in the news now, along with yield curve control and whatever others bad things may befall the bond market. But the reality is, we don't know what will happen. It is always good to be diversified, which makes you prepared for a variety of outcomes. For exa...
by Ocean77
Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7600

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

I admit those calculations hurt my brain. My thinking is rather simplistic: I believe that out country fortunes are quite linked with the strength of our currency (the US dollar). If our economy does well, it becomes more attractive to investors abroad, and both the dollar and my US investments shou...
by Ocean77
Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?
Replies: 72
Views: 7167

Re: Is too much saving a zero sum game ?

Here is how it works in a nutshell, though it may sound a bit harsh: We are saving a big part of our income. If everybody did this, then the economy would crater, for a lack of demand. So we are counting on most people to keep spending like crazy to bolster the economy, and in turn raise the profits...
by Ocean77
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7600

Re: Re-evaluating Total International Bond (BNDW)?

The bond portion of my portfolio is already split between US treasuries and emerging market government bonds. My impression is that emerging markets such as China are actually more responsible and conservative with their spending and fiscal policies and the US and many other developed countries (wh...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions on Using Margin to Pre-Purchase
Replies: 16
Views: 663

Re: Questions on Using Margin to Pre-Purchase

I find it fascinating to see the topics discussed on this forum shift over the years. Imagine someone asking how to leverage their investments last March or back in late 2008. It just didn't happen. Probably a lesson there. Uh... you sure about that? I don't think that's the case at all. Market Tim...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7600

Re: Re-evaluating Total International Bond (BNDW)?

The bond portion of my portfolio is already split between US treasuries and emerging market government bonds. My impression is that emerging markets such as China are actually more responsible and conservative with their spending and fiscal policies and the US and many other developed countries (wh...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7600

Re: Re-evaluating Total International Bond (BNDW)?

The bond portion of my portfolio is already split between US treasuries and emerging market government bonds. My impression is that emerging markets such as China are actually more responsible and conservative with their spending and fiscal policies and the US and many other developed countries (whi...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safety First portfolio assets
Replies: 9
Views: 728

Re: Safety First portfolio assets

If you were building a safety first portfolio what assets would you have in the safety first side of the portfolio? Example: You have 2 million dollars. You need $50,000 a year for 25 years (say you are 75 and plan to live to 100). What assets would you use for the $1,250,000 safety first side of t...
by Ocean77
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Always having confidence that ‘this time is not different’
Replies: 32
Views: 2492

Re: Always having confidence that ‘this time is not different’

I think diversification is key. Not because this time is different, but rather because the future will likely be similar to the past, in that it will bring crashes, recessions and long periods of underperformance of certain markets and assets. My portfolio is very diversified. Aside from the usual U...
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations? Somethings got to give
Replies: 269
Views: 18499

Re: Market valuations? Somethings got to give

HomerJ wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:37 pm CAPE has been "high" for almost THIRTY years now (since 1992)... A "high" CAPE has lost all meaning at this point.
But I sure hope that CAPE will not be "low" now for the next thirty years...
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving 50% of salary; what does it really mean?
Replies: 258
Views: 31549

Re: Saving 50% of salary; what does it really mean?

Keys to saving 50% of gross income: 1) excellent benefits package (low to no health premiums, HSA with a large match, high 401k match). 2) dual income earners with 401k and/or 457 accounts 3) young kids to help reduce your tax burden 4) a good but not great income 5) live in a low or no tax state 6...
by Ocean77
Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations? Somethings got to give
Replies: 269
Views: 18499

Re: Market valuations? Somethings got to give

Count me as one of the bears. Even the general stock market is in a bubble. As is the case with every bubble, there are rationalizations for the excessively high valuations. THIS is why I'm not a real Boglehead. While I agree with the Boglehead philosophy on some things, I strongly disagree with th...
by Ocean77
Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed
Replies: 559
Views: 29195

Re: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed

It is funny how these threads always pop up when the market is at record levels, when the emergency fund is all but a drag on the portfolio. We should instead have these discussions right in the middle of a crash or deep recession. I have felt this way for a long time and in fact haven't had an eme...
by Ocean77
Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed
Replies: 559
Views: 29195

Re: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed

It is funny how these threads always pop up when the market is at record levels, when the emergency fund is all but a drag on the portfolio. We should instead have these discussions right in the middle of a crash or deep recession. I have felt this way for a long time and in fact haven't had an eme...
by Ocean77
Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed
Replies: 559
Views: 29195

Re: The premise of the "emergency fund" is flawed

It is funny how these threads always pop up when the market is at record levels, when the emergency fund is all but a drag on the portfolio. We should instead have these discussions right in the middle of a crash or deep recession.
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

In these discussions, I often see just two extreme cases being looked at: The current state of very low inflation and high asset prices continuing. Or some kind of calamity in which you'll need to go foraging or hunting for food unless you have some physical gold. I think a far more likely scenario ...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

Yes I agreed that I would not consider gold as insurance, and there are no guarantees. But the point was that I would not see this as argument against gold, since there are no other assets either that provide insurance or guarantees. Gold does have something that cash or bonds do not have: a histor...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

It is a poor investment but an even worse insurance policy. At least as an investment it has some intrinsic value. Gold has practical material uses. I don’t think it’s value as a product will likely ever be zero. It’s value as insurance is likely close to that. There is nothing about an investment ...
by Ocean77
Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

It is a poor investment but an even worse insurance policy. At least as an investment it has some intrinsic value. Gold has practical material uses. I don’t think it’s value as a product will likely ever be zero. It’s value as insurance is likely close to that. There is nothing about an investment ...
by Ocean77
Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

It just makes sense that these types of investors should look at International stocks first, before considering other asset classes to invest in. I fully agree. But what comes after they do? I.e. my equity holdings has already been 50% US and 50% international for quite some time. I see no need to ...
by Ocean77
Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never saw myself buying gold ...
Replies: 146
Views: 10670

Re: Never saw myself buying gold ...

Same here. I never considered gold before. Over the long run, it just keeps up with inflation, the real return is zero. But well that sounds pretty good now in comparison to bonds and cash, as both will have a real return that is negative. And zero is better than negative, right?
by Ocean77
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Super Savers & Asset Allocation
Replies: 73
Views: 6461

Re: Super Savers & Asset Allocation

We save about 50% of our gross income. And our AA is quite conservative (50% in stocks). Even if our return was 0% for several decades, we could still retire just fine. So why take any more risk than we need to.
by Ocean77
Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 16967

Re: Why not 50/50?

Outside the fora I frequent, I don't often talk about finances. I do talk to my close friend group about retirement and our portfolios. I also talk to my MIL's financial advisor about her portfolio. And I stay in touch with a local FA who I think is very good but doesn't fit my boglehead model. All...
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4123
Views: 199765

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

ivgrivchuck wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:34 pm All that is left is a highly volatile stock which will go to ~$30 during the next few months.
I'd be very surprised if it will be higher than $10.
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 16967

Re: Why not 50/50?

Sure, that could be a reasonable allocation if you don't want to invest any effort at all into creating a portfolio. Correct. And one will almost certainly outperform those who "invest any effort at all into creating a portfolio." That describes me, actually. I've put in a lot of effort i...
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 16967

Re: Why not 50/50?

Sure, that could be a reasonable allocation if you don't want to invest any effort at all into creating a portfolio. Correct. And one will almost certainly outperform those who "invest any effort at all into creating a portfolio." That describes me, actually. I've put in a lot of effort i...
by Ocean77
Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 16967

Re: Why not 50/50?

Thank you! I have one question here: If the return from Bonds is nothing (0%) as you write (and I agree that looks likely), then shouldn't the overall portfolio return drop to half, if one switches from 100% stocks to 50% stocks? The graph I posted illustrates sustainable withdrawal rates, not simp...
by Ocean77
Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 16967

Re: Why not 50/50?

In retirement, some say 30/70 for safety, but some say 70/30 due to longevity risk. So why try to figure out who's right? Why not just split the difference? Because those who say "30/70 for safety" are obviously just guessing, whereas the "70/30 due to longevity risk" folks actu...
by Ocean77
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ attributes GameStop phenomenon to Bogle's philosophy. HA - I say NOT!
Replies: 101
Views: 9006

Re: WSJ attributes GameStop phenomenon to Bogle's philosophy. HA - I say NOT!

Right. Some of these folks putting their entire net worth into one stock. Exactly what Jack Bogle advised. :oops:
Well, once the whole thing implodes and people lose their shirt, I bet they will have articles that it is better to leave investment to professional managers...
by Ocean77
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Bogleheads lost its direction?
Replies: 331
Views: 29514

Re: Has Bogleheads lost its direction?

I just wanted to chime in and say I'm glad this wsb stuff was being discussed here. I was holding one of the affected stocks (BBBY) since last year (in my little fun account) and was puzzled as to why it was jumping up and down like crazy, until I read the threads here. I don't follow financial news...
by Ocean77
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4123
Views: 199765

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Retail is waiting for that squeeze (the theory being it will be obvious when the short squeeze happens because the stock will rapidly increase in price as these shorts fall in line to liquidate their positions, desperate not to be the last one to close). Your post all makes sense to me, but this pa...
by Ocean77
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4123
Views: 199765

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Well I sold my BBBY shares today for $49. Had bought them last Spring for under $9 and thought it may take a decade or so for the company to turn around and profit.
by Ocean77
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4123
Views: 199765

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Thank you all for the clarification regarding BBBY! I had no idea this was going on.
by Ocean77
Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4123
Views: 199765

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Here is something funny: I have some shares of Bed Bath Beyond in my fun portfolio (a small fraction of our NW). I bought them last Spring for under $10 when it was supposed to go out of business. This morning, I saw it jumped by 50%, to $45, then fell back again. I thought WTH is going on, I mean t...
by Ocean77
Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2975

Re: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes

Thank you all! It sounded like an interesting idea. But after reading all these good points, I'll put it back to rest and move on.
by Ocean77
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2975

Re: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes

Thank you all, good points! So it might be just a question of luck as to what companies happen to be in the initial selection and what happens to them. I.e. in the example above, it looks one of the initial companies was acquired at some point by Berkshire. While others may have gone out of business.
by Ocean77
Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2975

Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes

While working through John Bogle's book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" I came upon a section in chapter 13 "On Taxes" where he describes an idea for a fund that invests in a set of stocks and then holds these forever, without making any changes or adjustments: Start with a fund t...
by Ocean77
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Bitcoin or Crypto currency valuable ?
Replies: 130
Views: 7587

Re: Why is Bitcoin or Crypto currency valuable ?

No. Gold and Platinum do not retain their value. Go look at a chart of the history of gold prices (or any other precious metal). If gold or other metals retained their value, you would see the price of gold increase steadily at exactly the rate of inflation. Gold and other precious metals have pric...
by Ocean77
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 205
Views: 23404

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

It may very well be a bubble. I actually agree that we have one now with the US stock market. But: a) I could be wrong b) Even if there is a bubble, it could keep going for years and years c) If there is one, it can end in a number of different ways (crash, gradually deflate, stagnate until the econ...
by Ocean77
Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?
Replies: 270
Views: 12026

Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

When I buy stocks, I become part owner in a business and I'm entitled to a share of future profits. If I buy bitcoin, all I'd have is the hope an even bigger fool than me will some day buy it off from me at a greater price. IMO the only possible end of this is zero. Don't get me wrong, the block cha...
by Ocean77
Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we split REIT into US/INTL?
Replies: 19
Views: 1354

Re: Should we split REIT into US/INTL?

... I had some difficulty to make sense of this, so can you help break this down. For those of us who have a globally diversified real estate allocation, you're saying if you replace this with a concentrated bet in a single country (the US), it will make the investment less risky? Can you explain t...
by Ocean77
Sun Dec 27, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we split REIT into US/INTL?
Replies: 19
Views: 1354

Re: Should we split REIT into US/INTL?

Now that Intl Real Estate, e.g. VNQI, has been cheap for some time in terms of expense ratio, I’m considering taking some space from U.S. REIT and adding a bit of this. Obviously, there is to age-old question of the benefit of adding complexity for minimal additional potential future diversificatio...