Search found 87 matches

by LRonHalfelven
Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?
Replies: 18
Views: 2075

Re: What if mean reversion of stock prices is a myth?

To the extent that the proposition "stocks become less risky the longer you hold them" is true, it's true simply because of the Law of Large Numbers applied to successive periodic returns. That's still applicable even if prices are a random walk.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 44
Views: 4168

Re: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

(2) The most vocal practitioners of market timing tend to perform poorly as investors.
"That's nit-picking, innit?" -- Nigel Tufnel
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's that smell?
Replies: 41
Views: 7534

Re: What's that smell?

I love the smell of capital gains in the morning. Smells like... victory.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles Everywhere
Replies: 41
Views: 7784

Re: Bubbles Everywhere

220volt wrote:
Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:47 pm
It seems to me that everyone is fearful of this market. Everyone is predicting a crash. Isn't this time to be greedy?
As Yoda almost said: Be greedy, or do not. There is no time.
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal rules for buying in a down market?
Replies: 55
Views: 4999

Re: Personal rules for buying in a down market?

Adding a one-month delay doesn't turn market timing into non-market-timing.

My only rule: The right time to buy is when you have money to invest. The right time to sell is when you need money to spend.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 33
Views: 4152

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

InvestInPasta wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:56 am
How can you still buy&hold? :confused
It's pretty easy, actually.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 5337

Re: Market Timing

The OP's scheme does have one advantage which many similar ones lack: because it's based on such a limited period, there's a large amount of out-of-sample data (extending all the way back to the inception of the S&P 500 in the early 1950s) against which it can be tested. I haven't done so myself, bu...
by LRonHalfelven
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 3652

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

That's why most of us include bonds in our AA: they're stable enough that a 2% drop counts as a big deal.
by LRonHalfelven
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 2356

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

It plots out the running SAFEMAX percentage. The scary part of that chart is how quickly it rises and falls. Look again: that term SAFEMAX does not refer to the rising and falling percentage, but to its historical low point; if you were planning to continuously spend a higher percentage than that y...
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Stk Funds down yesterday 12 18
Replies: 4
Views: 1067

Re: Vanguard Stk Funds down yesterday 12 18

Morgan, for example, was down $2.22 a share, but had a distribution of $2.4066 at end of day on Friday, so it was actually up yesterday. When a fund has a big capital-gains distribution, the percentages can really be eye-catching.
by LRonHalfelven
Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is total return vs. dividend investing?
Replies: 95
Views: 15177

Re: What is total return vs. dividend investing?

Miriam2 wrote:
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:58 pm
Sounds like the advice from Grayfox's farmer up-thread: "Don't eat your seed corn!"
Better to invest in a dividend fund: every quarter they'll send you a sack of your own seed corn, labeled "TOTALLY NOT SEED CORN" in large, friendly letters.
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3670

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

I've always thought that when a company buys back its own stock, it's sending the message "We don't know how to make money in our business so we'll take all this excess and just buy our stock". It tells me that upper management is greedy and/or stupid. Greedy or stupid, how? If management doesn't s...
by LRonHalfelven
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 23827

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

My prediction: At the top, 95% of the threads on this board will be about Bitcoin.
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 17290

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

(quoting Investopedia) "Many investors like the steady income associated with dividends..." This quote illustrates part of the problem: we're not all using words the same way. I'm used to thinking of "income" as the money you take out of your portfolio in order to spend it; since this quantity is e...
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 17290

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

(quoting Investopedia) "Many investors like the steady income associated with dividends..." This quote illustrates part of the problem: we're not all using words the same way. I'm used to thinking of "income" as the money you take out of your portfolio in order to spend it; since this quantity is e...
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charging Bull and Fearless Girl
Replies: 10
Views: 2239

Re: Charging Bull and Fearless Girl

Easy to be fearless when you're almost 60 years from retirement. Her portfolio will have plenty of time to recover no matter what crazy thing the bull does.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 375
Views: 82717

Re: Retreat to cash

The surprising part is the implication that we've been in a period of certainty up to now. Why am I always the last to hear about these things?
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies for Refilling Cash Holdings (Bucket 1) Over Time
Replies: 25
Views: 3032

Re: Strategies for Refilling Cash Holdings (Bucket 1) Over Time

dbr....What would you do instead? VPW? [not asking to be sarcastic, but genuinely curious] I'm not dbr, but I can give one answer: Hold as much cash as is convenient for you, count it as part of your fixed-income allocation, and maintain that allocation at a suitable percentage of your overall asse...
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets
Replies: 49
Views: 7895

Re: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets

Listening to the permabears in the '90s. I sat out the entire decade waiting for the great buying opportunity that was bound to be coming any day.
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend stocks
Replies: 175
Views: 15677

Re: dividend stocks

Think about it this way: if your Uncle Shlomo wins the lottery and ends up with $1,000,000, he's rich. What if he promises to leave you that million when he dies. Do you consider yourself a millionaire? Than again, if Uncle Shlomo gives me $25,000 now as a gift and promises the remaining $975,000 w...
by LRonHalfelven
Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 5272

Re: Malkiels Recommended Portfolio

I don't know, but based on what I've seen from him lately I'd expect it to be something unfathomably bizarre.
by LRonHalfelven
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 11647

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

"Bear market" and "recession" are not names for two different sizes of the same thing. A bear market is something that happens to the stock market; a recession is something that happens to the economy.
by LRonHalfelven
Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week
Replies: 21
Views: 2020

Re: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week

I was on the road Monday and didn't see what prices were doing, but I sold some VEA and VWO (Vanguard developed and developing markets, respectively) on Tuesday morning as part of a rebalance/relocate move, and spreads on both were the usual penny.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The folly of the dividend yield
Replies: 73
Views: 8121

Re: The folly of the dividend yield

Paying a sustained dividend, and increasing it, is a credible signal that the earnings are real, there are no significant accounting funnies, the company really has the cash to pay the dividend. However, there's the risk that Goodhart's Law may come into play: "When a measure becomes a target, it c...
by LRonHalfelven
Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Being Both Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager ."
Replies: 7
Views: 989

Re: "Being Both Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager ."

"Reading the tea leaves" seems an excellent metaphor for active management, since it involves pretending to be able to see the future.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 4723

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

Because if it isn't news, the market already knows it and won't move on it.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 253
Views: 22779

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

"My first taste of the change in life that most young men were experiencing came in 1942 when I joined a predecessor organization to the Office of Price Administration, already under the opportunistic leadership of Leon Henderson. Henderson had acquired a certain fame in Washington when he had been ...
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Jul 13, 2015 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?
Replies: 44
Views: 5224

Re: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?

Looking at that graph, I find it hard to believe the OP would really have been willing to live on 1/7 as much income in 2009 as in 2007.
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Brainwashing of the American Investor
Replies: 68
Views: 19231

Re: The Brainwashing of the American Investor

Thanks to the OP for pointing us to the Moolanomy review. This reduces the pig-in-a-poke factor somewhat, though I share Phineas' puzzlement about how we're supposed to check the results. I also think "probably too complex to implement for 99 pct of investors" may be the understatement of the year i...
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Brainwashing of the American Investor
Replies: 68
Views: 19231

Re: The Brainwashing of the American Investor

Sounds like just about every bad investment idea out there, conveniently rolled into a single system. Stock picking, check; market timing, check; income investing, check; buckets, check.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18258
Views: 2570291

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The changeover to symbols may be what's causing all the trouble. For example, if you're trying to buy The ETF Formerly Known As VTI but you draw the loop with the arrow pointing to the the left instead of the right, you end up ordering The Stock Formerly Known As BRK.A.
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Jul 01, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fund Name is Not Enough
Replies: 24
Views: 4063

Re: The Fund Name is Not Enough

I get the impression that this is common practice among tax-exempt bond funds. For example, I read this in VG's annual report for their Massachusetts tax-exempt fund: "As for Puerto Rico, we are likely to remain largely on the sidelines until we see sustained growth and budget discipline. Although t...
by LRonHalfelven
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 78
Views: 19221

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

In fairness to computers, assuming that stock and bond returns are statistically independent of one another is an error anyone can make for himself with no automated aid whatever.
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 23053

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Sources like http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/12/04/big-buyback-may-be-on-horizon-for-microsoft/ and http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/18/microsofts-history-of-share-buybacks.aspx give no hint of a mismatch. For a longer argument on why one shouldn't blame managers for buying at the ...
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 23053

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Yep, that's my point: the two pro-dividend arguments that I mentioned contradict each other, and we should get the chance to watch the people who believe them hurling bitter denunciations back and forth. It'd be fun!
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 23053

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Here's a modest proposal: Let's not have the next dividend-investing debate be between foes and fans of dividend investing. Let's have it be between the people who think dividends are great because they're a sign of responsible management, and the people who think dividends are great because dividen...
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Market, Move from Stocks to Bonds?
Replies: 88
Views: 10723

Re: Bear Market, Move from Stocks to Bonds?

I'm starting to get bemused by the sheer number of threads like this that I see here. I dunno, maybe it's just a general internet thing and if I were to go on, say, a forum for Atkins fans I'd find it full of posts saying "I know this is supposed to be a low-carb diet, but what why not add energy ba...
by LRonHalfelven
Tue May 26, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 8876

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Mr. Kostin and Nicholas Bohnsack, head of quantitative research at Strategas Research Partners, suggest that with dividends making up a growing share of market returns, clients put money in stocks that can sustain high dividend yields. Even assuming their premise is correct, the conclusion does not...
by LRonHalfelven
Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Real Point of Active Investing"
Replies: 10
Views: 2405

Re: "The Real Point of Active Investing"

The article is reminiscent of this fine piece of driving advice from P.J. O'Rourke: Okay, now let's say you've been on a six-day drunk and you've just made a bet that you can back up all the way to Cleveland... Well, let's face it-- if that's the way you're going to act, sooner or later you'll have ...
by LRonHalfelven
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"
Replies: 16
Views: 2678

Re: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"

And the very risk that they purport to defend against--an unexpected uptick in inflation--is nowhere on the horizon.
Fancy that! You'd think the least an unexpected threat could do would be to let us have a bit of warning.
by LRonHalfelven
Sun Mar 15, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 16139

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

As a counterpoint, here's someone fretting that companies aren't retaining enough earnings: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ks-payouts
by LRonHalfelven
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Dividend Yields & Forward Returns, 1972-2015
Replies: 6
Views: 2410

Re: REIT Dividend Yields & Forward Returns, 1972-2015

If I started scratching my head every time someone's statistical model failed against out-of-sample data, I wouldn't have any scalp left.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 6384

Re: The dream of a perfect plan.

If that's your port you have a toe hold in REIT's already: VTSAX - 3.72% VSIAX - 10.27% VTIAX - 3.84% ----------------- = 17.83% Wups, there's a step missing here: VTSAX - 3.72% * 53% = 1.97% VSIAX - 10.27% * 5% = 0.51% VTIAX - 3.84% * 12% = 0.46% ------------- =2.94% I still agree that the OP is s...
by LRonHalfelven
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investing?
Replies: 21
Views: 2556

Re: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investi

Imagine the fun the momentum guys and the mean-reversion guys could have arguing with each other about Detroit!
by LRonHalfelven
Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Rises Again- Atlantic Monthly
Replies: 9
Views: 1816

Re: Wall Street Rises Again- Atlantic Monthly

VictoriaF wrote:It took mere 150 years for his prediction about bank bailouts to come true.
Way to make all those other permabears look like pikers, Karl!
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics
Replies: 38
Views: 3244

Re: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics

Dividend investing is teh r0xx0r|suxx0r! Total return investing is teh suxx0r|r0xx0r!
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we in the midst of a deflationary downturn?
Replies: 20
Views: 2589

Re: Aren't we in the midst of a deflationary downturn?

"In the midst" implies that there's a lot more inflationary downturn yet to come. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing that.
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are markets becoming inefficient?
Replies: 15
Views: 2456

Re: Are markets becoming inefficient?

Seems to me all purchases of Index Funds are uniformed trades of baskets of stocks that weigh more heavily on the market than some guy making a trade for 100 shares in his pajamas. "How the 100 shares got into my pajamas I'll never know." But seriously, part and parcel of believing markets are effi...
by LRonHalfelven
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why donate to charity?
Replies: 61
Views: 6653

Re: Why donate to charity?

I don't understand your math. Relative to the scenario where you don't donate anything, these are the amounts everyone ends up with:

You: -$0.67
IRS: -$0.33
Charity: +$1.00
by LRonHalfelven
Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity dividend investing vs equity index investing
Replies: 19
Views: 2919

Re: Equity dividend investing vs equity index investing

I want to pick stocks.
Picking stocks only works if it's possible to forecast returns.
Therefore, it's possible to forecast returns.