Search found 161 matches

by oken
Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I factor my pension into retirement planning?
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: How do I factor my pension into retirement planning?

Need to figure out your retirement expenditure. If expenditure < (pension + ss), then you're in the clear. If not, you're going to have to dip into your savings/investments. Typically, people use the 4% rule, which works out to having 25x annual (exp - (pension+as)). A more conservative estimate wou...
by oken
Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?
Replies: 58
Views: 3730

Re: Why are lifecycle funds so equity-heavy?

Notice that Vanguard only provides four choice in the LifeStrategy funds: 80/20, 60/40, 40/60, 20/80. That tells you that they don't think there's any need to provide fine-tuned intermediate choices. They don't have a hundred funds, 80/20 and 79/21 and 78/22 and so on. They don't even have 70/30 or...
by oken
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)
Replies: 8
Views: 850

Re: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)

That's interesting. Singaporeans get to withdraw over a 10 year period (after retirement age), so the capital gains, when spread out over 10 years, tends to have much less impact...

I don't think foreigners have the 10-year withdrawal period? In which case the benefits are less clear I guess.
by oken
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [You are] forced to buy TSLA - and it may cost you 5% of your 401k
Replies: 85
Views: 8170

Re: [You are] forced to buy TSLA - and it may cost you 5% of your 401k

Tesla makes up about 0.5% of the Global Stock Market...
by oken
Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)
Replies: 8
Views: 850

Re: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)

I don't have a definitive answer to this. I use FSMone to screen ETFs and Funds that are SRS and CPF eligible.
I'm not sure how accurate their categorisation is, but s27 isn't listed as SRS eligible on their screener.
May be best to check with Vickers.
by oken
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)
Replies: 8
Views: 850

Re: Singapore portfolio question (minimizing taxes, while staying on plan)

I don't think there is a SRS-eligible S&P etf. What ticker are you looking at?
by oken
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares
Replies: 159
Views: 12773

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Honestly not sure why OP chose this forum to post. He's spent most of his time defending himself and disagreeing with the comments given.
by oken
Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?
Replies: 159
Views: 14351

Re: Anyone here mostly cash in portfolio?

I'm a new-ish investor. Started about a year and a bit ago. Went all in about Dec 2019. Took some out in Feb 2020. Bought into the dip in March 2020. Sold it all in Apr 2020 expecting another crash. Stayed mostly out since then. Rode a bit of the gold rally in August. Then all out again. Then all in...
by oken
Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares
Replies: 159
Views: 12773

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Dear OP.

What if you're wrong?
Will it ruin you?
How many years of your financial plan will it set you back? Do you have a plan on when to exit and what to do if your conviction falls flat?

Or are you just counting on it not falling flat?
by oken
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: About the financial news media...
Replies: 27
Views: 2035

Re: About the financial news media...

I think its all these periods of volatility that really show that the media doesn't know jack...
I bet if they hired a random boglehead on this forum they could do much better.
by oken
Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20757
Views: 2834717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The Tech Top is in - when the Nasdaq closed at 12,056 on September 2nd. It might be a new decade before the Nasdaq reaches that level again. Note the post above from 10/31/20. Just ignore predictions from Forester. He's the poster-boy for "Nobody knows nothing". (That's true for all of us...
by oken
Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4077
Views: 321172

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I don't think we'll see a national lockdown again. I don't think there is the appetite for that like there was in March absent hospitals being overrun again. We really just need a better plan to keep the spread low nationwide rather than what we are doing now I agree. I think many hospitals were ca...
by oken
Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: first million [in your retirement portfolio]
Replies: 170
Views: 24013

Re: first million

1) what age did you hit your first million in your retirement portfolio? Have not hit it yet. According to my projections, will hit it when I'm about 45-46. To be fair, I'm planning for both my wife and myself, so we will hit $2 mill (1 each) by about 52-53. 2) what age did you start? I started thi...
by oken
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20298

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

The other thing I stopped doing was looking at my balance every month. If I can not look at it for 3-6 months it really seems to increase at a faster rate (I know it doesn't but it seems to). So, I would say I'm "happiest" when I've added larger amounts to my portfolio while at the same t...
by oken
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20298

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

Interesting question and responses. What I'm reading is that compounding takes a while to observe because our own contributions ramp up through the years and so it "feels" like any gains are mostly because of our increased contributions rather than compounding. I'm guessing the question is...
by oken
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY

SA has returned around 19.9% from 1 April 2019 to 22 August 2020, net of fees. From a simple Google search, S&P500's returns is 19.85%, IWDA's 10.8%, VWRA's 5.57% (but over a shorter period due to newer inception date). I'm satisfied with SA's returns but their active approach raises some doubt...
by oken
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY

@oken Yep, I'm familiar with Stashaway's ERAA. I do agree with it from my limited Econs knowledge gained from my JC days. :D Autowealth was actually the other option I considered before investing, but I chose Stashaway due to their marketing. You bring up a good point about discipline. I tend to ge...
by oken
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: [Singapore] Roboadviser vs DIY

Stashaway isn't really passive investing. If you want a robot that does passive investing, auto wealth might be a closer one. Stash away works by economic regime, so when you work with them, you're basically trusting in that process as well. Read their white paper to find out more. I think one major...
by oken
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"
Replies: 150
Views: 17440

Re: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"

Live below your means, max out, and enjoy life NOW rather than deluding yourself that enjoyment of life must be deferred until you retire. Easy enough to say. Maxing everything for many people would mean giving up quite a lot of everyday pleasures, if not essentials. I’m sure it looks simpler from ...
by oken
Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgewater's case for equal weighting across geographical regions: what do you think?
Replies: 58
Views: 3000

Re: Bridgewater's case for equal weighting across geographical regions: what do you think?

It appears to me Lauretta you might be willing to switch to a world ETF provided there were no tax consequences. If this is "roughly right" then what you are looking for is a tax advice, not a portfolio recommendation. well if I sell my ETFs and buy a world ETF unfortunately I will need t...
by oken
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 19418

Re: Gold continues to soar!

I agree with soros when he said gold is the ultimate bubble. Its demand is almost exclusively based on the thought that it's price will go up. I just bought some more gold and silver yesterday to get my allocstion up to 5%. I had to bite my lip because the price went up a lot the day before. Noneth...
by oken
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 19418

Re: Gold continues to soar!

you should change your post title to "Gold has soared." Saying it "continues" is unknown and unknowable. That reminds me of the riddle asking when the man jumped off the bridge (into water not too far down, hopefully). "When he was in the air." "No, that was after...
by oken
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 80
Views: 8044

Re: PSA: gold

along with higher risk (standard deviation)... https://i.postimg.cc/3RhnzbtG/Capture.jpg along with "periods of underperformance" (41% of the time, relative to "world" according to the chart below): https://i.postimg.cc/PJxzjGYC/Capture.jpg source: https://www.msci.com/documents...
by oken
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest regrets and advice for newbies.
Replies: 59
Views: 8124

Re: Biggest regrets and advice for newbies.

I don’t really have any regrets. One if the best things I’ve done is really focusing on my net worth. Doing that starting at 23 really changed how I think about money and always kept me pointed in the right direction. So my 3 easy Finance related) recommendations: 1. Read a random walk down Wall St...
by oken
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4077
Views: 321172

Re: Coronavirus and the market

due to some real nice warnings on this site, several recognized the once-in-a lifetime increased risk and got out. although tempting to get back and hence have avoided the large downturn, one has to wonder if glbally things will be down for awhile in the us, we are going to go through some tough ti...
by oken
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"
Replies: 44
Views: 4110

Re: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"

So... Negative interest rates coming? What's the impact on the market? All else being equal, lower rates are good for stocks because they increase the present value of future cash flows. However, lower rates caused by a slower economy means lower future cash flows, which is obviously bad. I guess t...
by oken
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"
Replies: 44
Views: 4110

Re: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"

So... Negative interest rates coming?
What's the impact on the market?
by oken
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8241

Re: Is it really that bad?

KlangFool wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 pm cwr12,

If you lose your job, how long can you survive? You can only succeed if you survive.

I am likely to lose my job after June.

KlangFool
Klang, like many others, I too have benefited from your calming posts. All the best to you and your family in this difficult time.
by oken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How will this market effect dividends?
Replies: 22
Views: 2159

Re: How will this market effect dividends?

billthecat wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:35 pm I was wondering that too. The Schwab website gives a projection of the dividends to expect over the year, and over the last few weeks my projection has dropped significantly, about 30%. I’m not sure why.
30% is roughly how much the overall market has dropped...
by oken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 60/40 and 40/60 funds recover faster than the total market on the way up? Get back to break even I am referring
Replies: 15
Views: 2042

Re: Why do 60/40 and 40/60 funds recover faster than the total market on the way up? Get back to break even I am referr

Sounds like rebalancing is a valuation strategy where one uses the relative valuation between stocks and bonds to algorithmically time the market.
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Philippians first to close financial markets, do you agree and who's next?
Replies: 13
Views: 1404

Re: Philippians first to close financial markets, do you agree and who's next?

rkhusky wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:44 am Seems like things would need to get 1000x worse before that would be considered (could happen in a month or so if exponential growth doesn't slow).

Note that Filipinos are from the Philippines. Philippians were from Philippi.
Indeed. Perhaps this is a disaster of biblical proportions...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why all these timing threads?
Replies: 67
Views: 3664

Re: Why all these timing threads?

The philosophy states to "develop a plan" and "invest early and often". What are you investing for and how much do you need to accumulate to meet your goals? If you have money to invest, meaning money you don't need in the next 5-10 years, then get it in. If the markets drop, li...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122260

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

As a side note, having some good discussions with one of my teenage daughters who made her very first investment in a Roth last year. She wishes to make another contribution and we have exchanges about what she "feels" will happen in the market and when to invest vs my "nobody knows&...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7527

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

Because they’re foolish? An asset is only worth what the market would pay you for it today and it is definitely not worth what you hope the market value will be in the future. My understanding of bogle investing is that it rests *entirely* on the assumption that markets will always go up. If we don...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10860

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

I’ve been investing in index funds for about five years now and throughout these years of research, I’ve always heard STAY THE COURSE! I feel that time is now here, but I must admit looking at my portfolio fall is excruciating. Is the strategy literally to hold and hold and hold, or should one take...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 59
Views: 7942

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Personally, if people feel that PE10 is not a good means of market valuation, I'm curious if they have other alternatives they prefer, and why?
I would guess, however, that many in this forum may not think that valuation is important? :?:
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investing in Singapore: how much home bias to protect against currency risk?
Replies: 17
Views: 1044

Re: Investing in Singapore: how much home bias to protect against currency risk?

Also consider that you probably have CPF, and some SG investors might consider those as bonds. Am planning not to contribute to it at this time, although I might in the future. Its difficult to withdraw, and you can only start doing so from retirement. Yup, sure. Its just one of the tools available...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 59
Views: 7942

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Well. This didn't age well.
With Dec 2018 and now Feb/Mar 2020...
by oken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why all these timing threads?
Replies: 67
Views: 3664

Re: Why all these timing threads?

Clearly a lot of "Bogleheads" haven't taken the time to learn about the philosophy . They're index investors looking to this forum for investment advice, but never embraced the concept of following a Boglehead plan and mindset. I'm new to this forum so forgive me if this has been discusse...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...
Replies: 56
Views: 6024

Re: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...

..."It's a great time to buy when it's cheap!" It's called rebalancing. BH for some reason believe re-balancing is not timing the market. But obviously its a form of timing the market. If you're not having an opinion on the market direction, is it, really? If you don't have an opinion on ...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20757
Views: 2834717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

aj76er, I'm thinking about doing an over rebalance also. What is your criterion for switching back to 80/20? Just curious. Thanks. Lots of ways to look at it, and much of it is personal. Annual rebalance is my default. So it would be natural to assess in a year from now. If market is up, and valuat...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20757
Views: 2834717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I can't even imagine being anywhere near 100% stocks at a time like this. It cuts both ways. I reduced exposure to equities back in February 2018, thinking that after a nine-year bull market equities were overvalued and we were due for a major correction. Turns out I was right, I guess, but it took...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20757
Views: 2834717

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It’s not wise to use your emergency fund for anything but an emergency. You do understand we are in a national emergency. My "emergency fund" has loaned four months to VOO so far in March. If one cannot sand the heat one should leave the kitchen. So if your wife comes running to you telli...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4077
Views: 321172

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Posts not discussing the market are off-topic and have been removed. Please use this thread for market impacts. There are 3 threads: - Market impacts: Coronavirus and the market (this one) - Preparations: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing? - Everything else: Bogleheads community d...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA
Replies: 8
Views: 282

Re: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA

I use a synthetic indicator, Implied Equity Risk Premium, to guide my valuation strategy. Prof. Damodaran seems to have the most careful monthly calculations of it: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/. You can go look at his spreadsheets for the data of the underlying indicators that he crunches ...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA
Replies: 8
Views: 282

Re: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:31 pm May want to read willthrill81's market timing thread as well, although he uses different indicators
Thank you. Could I trouble you for a title or link? Or keyword perhaps? Not sure exactly what I'm looking for...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1999

Re: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?

I think my personal aversion is more the stock picking. When I'm retired, I fully intend to keep enough for 10yrs of expenses and put most of the rest into equities. So I'm less concerned that she has a high percentage of that so long as she has enough to live on. But that's my personal take. My vie...
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA
Replies: 8
Views: 282

Re: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA

vitaflo wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:42 am This isn't a good idea. But here ya go: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Thank you. :beer
by oken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA
Replies: 8
Views: 282

Re: Market Valuations for Dynamic AA

I'm willing to take a reduced premium for the benefit of a more cushioned drop So it is market timing in other words? Why not setting proper AA and rebalance? I think it's because it doesn't make sense to me to have the same AA when the market is at a 10 yr all time high, and when the market is jus...