Search found 802 matches

by palanzo
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water Heater Off for 3 Months - Restart Procedure Help
Replies: 16
Views: 765

Re: Water Heater Off for 3 Months - Restart Procedure Help

Hi, we just moved into a new house (built in 1988, new to us). It has 2 water heaters, one is a relatively new unit, I can't see a date on it, but looks to be 2-3 year old Rheem with electronic pilot light. The other looks a bit ancient, guessing 10+ years old AO Smith, also with electric pilot lig...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

galeno wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:39 pm
I just looked it up. I remembered the output of real 2% CAGR for our 50/50 port. The forecasted nominal return for our stocks is 6%. Not 4%. My mistake.
But the Vanguard forecast is still 4%? Right?
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

galeno wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:15 pm
Yikes! You're right. 1% real. Ahhhhh!
Sorry 8-)
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good car deals?
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Any good car deals?

Depending on your driving habits, I would look into RAV4 Prime. I can’t overstate how nice driving a partly electric vehicle is (quiet, cheap mileage, low maintenance) if you drive fewer miles than you can recharge in your garage most nights. Starting at $38,100 and going up to $47,185. What a stea...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good car deals?
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Any good car deals?

At $2/gallon the cost of fuel per 10,000 miles is: at 30 mpg: $666 at 40 mpg : $500 at 50 mpg: $400 at 60 mpg: $333 At $3/gallon: 30 mpg: $999 40 mpg: $750 50 mpg: $600 60 mpg: $500 If you are buying for fuel economy, these differences are , IMHO, pretty trivial, unless you do a LOT of city driving...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good car deals?
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Any good car deals?

Is there a recent study that shows both how long on average a battery pack lasts and also the cost to replace? I don't know anything about the new cars. My sister in law has an early Prius, lives in Tucson and has replaced the battery pack 3 times. (once under warranty). I understand my sample of o...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Vanguard FORECASTS long term nominal CAGRs of 4% for stocks and 2% for bonds. USD CPI = 2.0%. So our 50/50 port SHOULD do 4% nominal or 2% REAL. If it performs better we will NOT complain. "Why do you say "should" .. there are a sufficient number of historical periods where that did not happen. It ...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Part G- New Mexico premiums
Replies: 6
Views: 395

Re: Medicare Part G- New Mexico premiums

abqguy wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:00 pm
yes, I left a message.
Give them a few days to call you back.
by palanzo
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good car deals?
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Any good car deals?

Depending on your driving habits, I would look into RAV4 Prime. I can’t overstate how nice driving a partly electric vehicle is (quiet, cheap mileage, low maintenance) if you drive fewer miles than you can recharge in your garage most nights. Starting at $38,100 and going up to $47,1851. What a ste...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good car deals?
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Any good car deals?

Depending on your driving habits, I would look into RAV4 Prime. I can’t overstate how nice driving a partly electric vehicle is (quiet, cheap mileage, low maintenance) if you drive fewer miles than you can recharge in your garage most nights. Starting at $38,100 and going up to $47,185. What a stea...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Best yielding FDIC/NCUA insured CD's give significantly more than the 1.23% TIPS breakeven in 5 yr, near 2% for the handful of best bank/credit unions 5 yr CD's right now, the best dozen or so are 1.50% or more. Which CDs are yielding "near 2% for the handful of best bank/credit unions 5 yr CD's ri...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Is the conclusion then that there isn't an at least A-rated fixed income vehicle at present that will provide a return higher than inflation? Yes. "Expected inflation" rather than inflation However some US TIPs bonds are paying a positive real yield (so against expected inflation). Last I checked. ...
by palanzo
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice for raspberry pi
Replies: 36
Views: 2295

Re: Need advice for raspberry pi

Always best to go to the source for information.

https://www.raspberrypi.org
by palanzo
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Is the conclusion then that there isn't an at least A-rated fixed income vehicle at present that will provide a return higher than inflation? Yes. "Expected inflation" rather than inflation However some US TIPs bonds are paying a positive real yield (so against expected inflation). Last I checked. ...
by palanzo
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5368

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Penny wise and dollar foolish. KISS. A 50/50 port should generate a net REAL CAGR = 2.0%. At 4.0% AWR the retirement money should last 50 years. Firecalc.com says the 4% AWR is 95% safe for 30 years. A 100% cash port should generate a net REAL CAGR = -2.0%. At 4.0% AWR the retirement money should l...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actions at end of life to benefit heirs
Replies: 101
Views: 6372

Re: Actions at end of life to benefit heirs

tibbitts wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:59 pm
...they're trying to put peanut butter on their shoes and eat them...
This is not a phrase I am familiar with. What does it mean?
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Verifying Gold Coins are not counterfeit
Replies: 25
Views: 1552

Re: Verifying Gold Coins are not counterfeit

Nicolas wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:46 pm
Archimedes had this figured out thousands of years ago. You could use his method.
https://www.thoughtco.com/archimedes-vo ... ty-3976031
No need to run through the streets naked however :mrgreen:
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

I like that idea but I don't like how the fund annually has forced capital gains distributions. Not great for a taxable account. Wish the iShare ETF equivalent did not have a 0.25% ER. I just did the math. The short term capital gain in 12/2019 would have been $17.85 on $100,000 invested. But that'...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5847

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

Does anyone predict that the character of the area will be drastically changed by this over the next decade? Would it even get to the point where current sky-high real estate prices would be significantly reduced as a result of workers going to lower COL areas? NOTHING WILL FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE. Si...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

Is anyone considering a new money market fund or a short or limited term bond fund in place of a money market with rates near zero? I got rid of almost all my cash -- got sick of hanging onto it. I kept four months of expenses in MMFs (mostly the Vanguard Federal MMF), and dumped all the rest into ...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

Is anyone considering a new money market fund or a short or limited term bond fund in place of a money market with rates near zero? I got rid of almost all my cash -- got sick of hanging onto it. I kept four months of expenses in MMFs (mostly the Vanguard Federal MMF), and dumped all the rest into ...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

Maybe someone who is a bond expert can address whether the convexity issue is much more muted with such a short duration. I am not a bond expert other than what I got from reading Swedroe's bond book several times. That said: In general I would avoid MBS as if it was Covid. But the negativity conve...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally drops savings rate again
Replies: 31
Views: 4979

Re: Ally drops savings rate again

Not surprising: "We want to let you know that the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) for your Online Savings Account is changing from 1.10% APY to 1.00% APY on all balance tiers. Your new APY is effective 7/8/2020 and will show online in your account details on 7/9/2020." And instead they highlight thei...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pre-fab (modular) home building experience
Replies: 61
Views: 4263

Re: Pre-fab (modular) home building experience

DD is exploring the idea of having a prefab home built. I’m not talking about a Mobile home type build. I’m talking about a traditional home movement that utilize a local builder to construct the prebuilt home on site. I’m finding the idea intriguing. I especially like the Lindal homes inspired by ...
by palanzo
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally drops savings rate again
Replies: 31
Views: 4979

Re: Ally drops savings rate again

Not surprising: "We want to let you know that the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) for your Online Savings Account is changing from 1.10% APY to 1.00% APY on all balance tiers. Your new APY is effective 7/8/2020 and will show online in your account details on 7/9/2020." And instead they highlight thei...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

1789 wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:46 pm
anon_investor wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:30 pm
1789 wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:08 pm
lostdog wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:16 pm
dewey wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:54 pm


+1
Investment grade version or the index version?
BSV? Might be a good idea
What about Vanguard Short Term Federal Fund (VSGBX)?

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VSGBX
Looks great to me :beer
It's 63% Government Mortgage-Backed!
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5847

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

Does anyone predict that the character of the area will be drastically changed by this over the next decade? Would it even get to the point where current sky-high real estate prices would be significantly reduced as a result of workers going to lower COL areas? NOTHING WILL FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE. Si...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5847

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

All of my staff was super productive in the 1st month WFH, as they saw it as an opportunity to prove they could work remotely. Now, they are reverting back to who they are: some rock stars, some who just get the bare minimum done, and quite a few who clearly need someone physically micromanaging th...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5847

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

I think the future of the office will be to have a conference room, supplies, and desks for people that can't work from home for whatever reason. People will come to the office if they need to meet someone or if they are out of supplies/need tech support but it won't be a daily trek to the office f...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 77
Views: 5847

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

I live in Silicon Valley and work at a FAANG company. Historically the company where I work has been anti-WFH. It was allowed but only occasionally, and I've seen people get in trouble for overusing it (albeit in cases where the person's output was very low). Managers were not allowed to hire remot...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally drops savings rate again
Replies: 31
Views: 4979

Re: Ally drops savings rate again

Not surprising: "We want to let you know that the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) for your Online Savings Account is changing from 1.10% APY to 1.00% APY on all balance tiers. Your new APY is effective 7/8/2020 and will show online in your account details on 7/9/2020." And instead they highlight thei...
by palanzo
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 75
Views: 5717

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

Yields on all short duration quality fixed income have been devastated by the FED 0 - 0.25% rate policy. FED policy sets short rates, has somewhat less influence on long rates. With such incredibly low rates, essentially zero, in very short term instruments, the difference in yields isn't going to ...
by palanzo
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 86
Views: 7694

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

... Thank you for the reply. I guess my question would be better stated : So are the risks associated with Munis greater than the federal tax benefits in a brokerage account if one wants a 75/25 or 70/30 portfolio? As hudson suggests , it may be easier to discuss if you have some funds in mind and ...
by palanzo
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 86
Views: 7694

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

hudson wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:49 pm
coachd50,

I would understand your question better if you would maybe give two example funds.
Maybe like...VWIUX...Vanguard's intermediate muni VS VBMVX...Vanguard's total bond fund.
What are you thought about VWIUX...Vanguard's intermediate muni vs. VBMVX...Vanguard's total bond fund?
by palanzo
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 86
Views: 7694

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

What would be a suitable alternative for someone looking to keep a 75/25 allocation in their taxable brokerage account? Suitable alternatives to munis in taxable include: 1) US Treasury bills/notes/bonds, or a fund. These are exempt from state income taxes. Alas, very low yielding. 2) CDs. With a s...
by palanzo
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 86
Views: 7694

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

If you are worried about the risks in muni bonds, you could consider using a top-quality fund such as BMBIX, where more of the holdings are rated AAA: BMBIX (Baird Quality Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund) AAA 70.7% AA 26.8% A 2.5% Duration 4.2 years Expense Ratio: 0.30% Yield 1.10% what about the ...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Encryption for the cloud
Replies: 19
Views: 1457

Re: Encryption for the cloud

You shouldn't share passwords with third parties. This actually opens bigger attack vectors than just encrypting nothing at all. Your email has so much personal information..Boxcrypytor doesn't need to be malicious to make basic mistakes. This stuff is difficult to get right Why would Boxcrypytor h...
by palanzo
Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?
Replies: 25
Views: 1786

Re: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?

I've never had a pension. How can CALPERS guarantee a 7% return based on their investments? Is it calculated or wishful thinking? It is a kind of wishful thinking. They need a portfolio of a certain size if they are to meet their projected obligations. The larger the assumed return, the smaller the...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?
Replies: 25
Views: 1786

Re: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?

The pressures come as the California Public Employees' Retirement System has had to raise cash to fulfill commitments to private-equity firms and real-estate partners. ... Since the credit markets have tightened up and real estate and alternative investments aren't very liquid, Calpers has been com...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?
Replies: 25
Views: 1786

Re: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?

The Financial Times recently reported the California Public Sector Pension plan will leverage up to 20% of its assets in an effort to increase its returns (I don't have access to the full article, so perhaps someone else can provide it). https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/calpers-use-80-billion-leve...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Encryption for the cloud
Replies: 19
Views: 1457

Re: Encryption for the cloud

You shouldn't share passwords with third parties. This actually opens bigger attack vectors than just encrypting nothing at all. Your email has so much personal information..Boxcrypytor doesn't need to be malicious to make basic mistakes. This stuff is difficult to get right Why would Boxcrypytor h...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?
Replies: 25
Views: 1786

Re: CALPERS taking on leverage: Is leverage becoming more mainstream?

... I'm not so interested in the specifics of CALPERS as I am wondering whether leveraging stocks is becoming more mainstream. ... Thoughts? I hope it's not becoming mainstream, but if CALPERS is willing to do it that will probably justify it for many. I fear bail-out requests in the future for CAL...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Encryption for the cloud
Replies: 19
Views: 1457

Re: Encryption for the cloud

You shouldn't share passwords with third parties. This actually opens bigger attack vectors than just encrypting nothing at all. Your email has so much personal information..Boxcrypytor doesn't need to be malicious to make basic mistakes. This stuff is difficult to get right Why would Boxcrypytor h...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Scan Job: 28,800 pages
Replies: 13
Views: 1278

Re: Big Scan Job: 28,800 pages

Are you sure you really need to scan and keep all those documents? Will you ever look at them again? An excellent question! I scanned 30k documents in 2005 (was able to do it at work during down time; took me about 6 months of weekends) with a Scansnap. I doubt I've looked at 0.01% of those documen...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2194

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

Not short munis. Short corporates. The yield on short munis is not worth the risk. As far as the Fed goes, it is impossible to discuss the issues without getting into matters which cannot be discussed due to forum rules. Suffice it to say I don't think the Fed or any one else would bail out muni bo...
by palanzo
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Big Scan Job: 28,800 pages
Replies: 13
Views: 1278

Re: Big Scan Job: 28,800 pages

Are you sure you really need to scan and keep all those documents? Will you ever look at them again?
by palanzo
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2194

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

jebmke wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:47 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:49 pm
When you say you won't re-balance out of equity do you also mean you won't re-balance from bonds to equity?
No, I will re-balance on the downside. On the upside, no re-balance.
If you rebalanced on the upside would you not control "risk"?
by palanzo
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2194

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

What is Allan suggesting we do? Not hold munis and hold Treasuries in taxable? If the risk of munis is this high, then so is the risk of corporate bonds. So we should also consider replacing TBM with Treasuries in tax deferred accounts? I moved quite a bit from munis and investment grade to treasur...
by palanzo
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2194

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

retiredjg wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:16 pm
I think maybe you forgot the link where Allan said that?
I'm sorry. I did. I updated my original post.
by palanzo
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2194

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

At the risk of this thread being locked, he is stating that municipal finances are a mess and that Municipal Bonds, even very highly rated bonds may not be the safe haven that they have been. There have been liquidity shocks to the muni market in the last decade. Most notably in mid March and a dec...