Search found 989 matches

by Stef
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There might be a correlation betwern SpaceX lauching rockets or returning crew to earth and US stocks soaring :mrgreen:
by Stef
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

That's it, I've seen enough. Buying QQQ instead of VTI from now on with my monthly savings rate :mrgreen:
by Stef
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Understanding the Fed's "Money Printer" (QE, the Stock Market, and Inflation) by Ben Felix
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3lP3BhvnSo
by Stef
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Does it make sense to do 2 and 4 after the dollar took the hit? I understand it will help if the dollar will keep dropping. Ps. Option 5) move to Thailand. Euro has been getting stronger vs. Thai baht. Well I already had a 15% Swiss home bias in the 1st place. But I'm thinking about increasing it t...
by Stef
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

YRT70 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:08 pm
Agreed. But not much we can do right?
There are a couple of options:

1) Move to the US.
2) Increase your home bias.
3) Hedge currency, reduce volatility and thus longterm returns.
4) Cry.

I'm doing a combination of 2 and 4.
by Stef
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

YRT70 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:43 am
Same here. About 60% of my portfolio is US. USD is taking a beating vs. Euro.
USD is down -7.4% in CHF and -6.5% in EUR since January 2.

So while SP500 is back to 0% YTD as of today, as an European investor you are still down -7% YTD. This sucks.
by Stef
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:50 pm
Stef wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:48 pm
USD just keeps losing value :(
Why sad face?
CHF is my base currency and US is making up 63% of my portfolio right now. So while it's great that US stocks are soaring, I'm still losing due to the USD. It just keeps going down lately.
by Stef
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

USD just keeps losing value :(
by Stef
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695533

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

China down -4.4%, Europe down -1.7%, SP500 Future down -0.4%.

Not looking great today.
by Stef
Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

New ATH in the coming 2-3 weeks?
by Stef
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

US dollar is down today LOL Seems to be happening a lot lately? Makes me happy to own international. It really sucks for exUS investors like me. USD/CHF down -0.60% today. USD just keeps losing value since a couple of months. When SP500 hit his current ATH in February, USD/CHF was at 0.98 and today...
by Stef
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Damn this market recovery must be historic?
by Stef
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I remember a time when the SP500 dropped below 2200 intraday.

It's unreal that this was just 4 months ago.
by Stef
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Leesbro63 wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:26 pm
Perhaps that will be the signal that the outperformance is over?
Ever heard of the Nasdaq factor premium? :mrgreen:
by Stef
Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Image

At some point I'll have to buy QQQ. This outperformance of the SP500 is getting ridiculous!
by Stef
Sun Jul 19, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What surprised you the most once you retired?
Replies: 251
Views: 26384

Re: What surprised you the most once you retired?

One thing that may not have been mentioned is that some people are surprised at is how quickly and well the company gets by without them once they leave. Some people feel like they are indispensable and it can be a bit of a letdown to realize that they were actually easily replaced. Not yet retired...
by Stef
Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 122
Views: 10423

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

What will happen with Teslas stock price? I mean on the day it get's included, all the funds have to buy it? Wouldn't this affect the stock price?
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1486

Re: How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?

Ooooo fun! Which means the thread will probably be locked soon. Never understood why such threads get closed so soon. It's an interesting discussion! Everyone reading this thread will be likely be dead before it happens. :shock: Not so sure. Elon Musk and others are expecting it to happen in our li...
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I like how the SP500 went up 0.70% and USD/CHF up 0.50% in a single day. Now I need just another +3% and I reach my break-even point. Didn't expect that to happen so soon after I lump summed everything in December and February 21st lol. Yikes, but you hung in there like a champ, so, bravo to you! W...
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I like how the SP500 went up 0.70% and USD/CHF up 0.50% in a single day. Now I need just another +3% and I reach my break-even point. Didn't expect that to happen so soon after I lump summed everything in December and February 21st lol.
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1486

Re: How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?

From the Wikipedia article itself: Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of some technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. The new agricultural ec...
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1486

How will the technological singularity affect the stock market?

If you haven't heard about it, a quote from Wikipedia: The technological singularity—also, simply, the singularity—is a hypothetical point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. According to the most po...
by Stef
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

What a day. Whole world up 1% today.
by Stef
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well so much for soaring.
by Stef
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Corsair wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:59 am
TSLA up another 14%. Musk is now the 5th richest person and TSLA is the 10th biggest US stock.

& people are still saying we're not in a bubble LOL

Stagflation here we come?
And not in the SP500. Is this the first time this happened?
by Stef
Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

We might close above 3200 today. What a start into a new week! Maybe you'll hit positive soon on your lump sum earlier this year? That would be some kind of financial milestone lol, getting into green numbers. It would be crazy if I still beat the DCA approach (over 12 months), still too soon to ca...
by Stef
Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

We might close above 3200 today. What a start into a new week!
by Stef
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

What will happen to Teslas stock when it's listed on the SP500? I mean on this day all major SP500 funds will going to buy it? Will this drive the price?
by Stef
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception
Replies: 111
Views: 6655

Re: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception

acegolfer wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:32 am
Both are right. Expected factor return is positive. But the realized factor return (performance) can be negative.
Of course, like the market premium. Expected return of stocks is higher than bonds, but you can end up with lower returns over long periods of time.
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception
Replies: 111
Views: 6655

Re: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since conception

Ramjet wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:23 am
Stef wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:32 am
According to the newest Fama & French paper there is just too much noise in the data from the last 30 years to tell if there is still a size and value premium.
Date published?
January 2020: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3525096
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your budget
Replies: 152
Views: 9746

Re: Share your budget

I live in Switzerland, but it might still be interesting to share. 29 years old, single household, no kids. Everything converted from CHF to USD. 7'536$ gross salary 6'734$ net salary (SS, pension and other things deducted) 851$ taxes 5'883$ post-tax income 1'300$ rent 640$ food 530$ vacations 375$ ...
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception
Replies: 111
Views: 6655

Re: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since conception

According to the newest Fama & French paper there is just too much noise in the data from the last 30 years to tell if there is still a size and value premium. If it's still there, it's def. much smaller since it's publication.
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26605

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

I'd rather rather retire at 50 and die broke instead of working to 55-60 just to be sure that my portfolio will last for 40+ years. You can't buy time and health. It doesn't matter having billions if you are sick or unable to enjoy life like you want. I'm sure Bill Gates or Warren Buffet would spend...
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

Orange: FED ($) Blue: EZB (€) Red: SNB (CHF) https://www.swissinfo.ch/resource/blob/45215326/30a9f57f2a8cce7a303613ea9b512834/leitzins_us-data.png You see that the FED/SNB difference was somewhere around 2% on avg. in the last 5 years. This (+ slightly higher TER) explains the performance difference...
by Stef
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

3. You mention that the cost of hedging being -0.75 based on your central bank. This is not the cost of hedging. Covered Interest Rate Parity says that for the same quality of investments, any higher rate will be eroded by inflation once you change back currencies at the end of the period, so the r...
by Stef
Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

How many equity holdings are represented in the Switzerland component? As Nestle, Novartis and Roche are making up 55% of the Swiss market capitalization, I'm overweighting Small/Mid caps to avoid cluster risk. Currently it's 37% Large Caps (20 companies) and 63% Mid/Small Caps (200 companies). So ...
by Stef
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

You have overweighted US stocks. So that will increase your exposure to USD (although given the complex interactions between stock prices and currencies, to what extent is not clear). The solution is to use currency hedged equity funds, hedged into CHF, if they are available to you. This will incre...
by Stef
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

My asset allocation is intended. US 1.1x market cap, Switzerland 15% fixed, Canada market cap, rest according to market cap ratios. No bonds as I'm only 29 years old. I believe that US will keep outperforming exUS, that's why I overweight the US slightly. Switzerland at 15% instead of 2.7% because I...
by Stef
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 27
Views: 1401

USD currency risk as a non-US investor

I'm a Swiss with a global portfolio which is made of 63% US, 15% Switzerland, 15% Developed and 7% Emerging Markets. So my base currency is CHF with a heavy USD exposure. When the SP500 hit it's current ATH at 3386, the USD was worth 0.98 CHF, now it's down to 0.938 CHF. If it stays at this level th...
by Stef
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26605

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Is there a simple rule of thumb how many yearly expenses you need if you expect to get SS in x years that will cover y% of your expenses? Sure. Say your expenses are $70,000 a year... And you're going to get $20,000 in Social Security at 65. And you are retiring at 55. Use 4% (25x) "rule" at 65. At...
by Stef
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it really matter when you claim Social Security
Replies: 109
Views: 9243

Re: Does it really matter when you claim Social Security

Aren't there basically 3 important factors for this question?

1. Life expectancy
2. Single or married
3. Expected return on assets
by Stef
Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26605

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Is there a simple rule of thumb how many yearly expenses you need if you expect to get SS in x years that will cover y% of your expenses?
by Stef
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19202

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Northern Flicker wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:39 pm
What are you trying to accomplish? How would overweighting EM increase your chances of accomplishing the goal?
Less correlation with the US.
by Stef
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have VTI but QQQ had a cagr of 3000%/year or something close to that in recent years.

Only reason I'm not buying QQQ is because I don't want to be a performance chaser.
by Stef
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19202

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I wonder if one should equalweight exUS developed and emerging markets or just stick to market cap weight ratios.
by Stef
Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7302
Views: 595882

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I keep asking myself on a daily basis why I don't just hold 10-20% in QQQ :oops:
by Stef
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary
Replies: 74
Views: 7393

Re: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary

tibbitts wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:44 pm
...and they couldn't increase the salary without being unfair to existing employees. They felt it was a bad fit for everyone concerned because of that.
That's where I see a potential problem. Can I ask for more than others in the same position are getting?
by Stef
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary
Replies: 74
Views: 7393

Re: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary

Anyway, back to my initial question. How do I approach this final interview with their offer? How do I get the maximum?
by Stef
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary
Replies: 74
Views: 7393

Re: Signed a new job contract - realized I could have get a higher salary

There is no way to find out my salary. It's strictly personal information.