Search found 427 matches

by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 594
Views: 42426

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Maybe because if 1 billion people get infected with this something like 20 million will die? Seems problematic, but that could just be me. Look at the stats. There are are far less deaths in working ages. Most of the deaths are from old or sick people. So no "loss" for the economy but rather a "rel...
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Because it doesn't work like that. If you let your emotions control your actions, you will never be a successful investor.

Maybe rethink your AA and don't try to time the market.
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more. And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 year...
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 594
Views: 42426

Re: Coronavirus and the market

It just doesn’t make sense. The spanish flu wiped out millions and had literally no impact on stocks. This market is totally irrational.
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What if you are wrong and we are back on track? When will you re-enter the market?
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?
Replies: 283
Views: 15547

Re: What did you learn from the 2/24 sell off?

That I don't feel that bad about investing a lump sum on February 20th and literally losing 10% of it in a couple of days. I was thinking about never lump sum investing again and always DCA windfalls, but came to the conclusion that it was just bad luck now and might be the other way around next time.
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 594
Views: 42426

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Why are markets droping? Isn't everybody already expecting that the virus will spread out over the whole world? I don't know why this isn't already priced in.
by Stef
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!! That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first cras...
by Stef
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's over. This might be the start of the big crash.

Yield curve inversion once again completely predictive.
by Stef
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I really feel like Bob right now lol.
by Stef
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you ever use cash?
Replies: 189
Views: 8574

Re: Do you ever use cash?

I don't have cash and refuse to pay in cash. When I enter a restaurant or any other place where I plan to spend money, I always ask if they accept card payments. If not, I leave and never come back.
by Stef
Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm kind of pissed that I always manage to lump sum invest right before big drops. Not that it matters longterm, but it seems that DCA will outperform when I personally do lump sum.

So if anyone wants to do market timing sucessfully, just do the opposite of what I am doing.
by Stef
Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What's the cause?
by Stef
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Damn. Why does this always happen right after you invested a lump sum?
by Stef
Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 13074

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

That was an awesome summary. Thanks for sharing! I've never heard of Ben Felix before , but he really provided a complete yet concise analysis. The tidbit I found interesting was his assertion that behavioral effects can persist even after they been widely known. If true, that should give some reas...
by Stef
Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]
Replies: 493
Views: 58892

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Is the Value Premium Dead? by Ben Felix

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYO7xrHhqsY
by Stef
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Pierre Delecto wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:43 am
My bonus was paid today and 401k and deferred compensation contributions out of it will be invested today. Based on my past luck I’m sure market will now correct. 🤛
I invested my bonus yesterday, so you are luckier than me :|
by Stef
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Bonus came in today. I hope for a slight dip.
by Stef
Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:19 am
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:51 pm
Backing up the truck this week! Stay the course! Buying what is on sale to bring portfolio back to target allocation.
What is on sale? International?
SCV is on sale :mrgreen:
by Stef
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's over, yield curve inverted again.
by Stef
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: You Can't Time The Market
Replies: 73
Views: 5549

Re: You Can't Time The Market

What will you do if the market keeps going up? When will you re-enter?
by Stef
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: You Can't Time The Market
Replies: 73
Views: 5549

Re: You Cant Time The Market

When will you invest it again? What happens if the market keeps going up for another 10 years?
by Stef
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15008

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

Maybe developed markets, but I don't think it's really necessary. But I'm not giving my money to stock markets controlled by authoritarian dictatorships like China. Or those wacky emerging market countries with despots and murderers at the helm? I'll pass. Europe has no future apart from non-EU cou...
by Stef
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15008

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

Does past performance really matter for the future?
by Stef
Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15008

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

Wow, another US vs. International thread!

Does it really matter for the future how the US performed in the last 250 years?
by Stef
Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone buying more SCV than usual due to the underperformance? Seems like it's cheaper than TSM.
by Stef
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 968
Views: 130790

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Why wouldn't you be able to do all of that after you turn 70? Take a look around the slopes, gym, and beach. You will see plenty of active seniors. Our plans include lots of physical activity continuing well into our retirement years once we reach those ages. CyclingDuo Because nobody in my family ...
by Stef
Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 968
Views: 130790

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

2.1 million inflation-adjusted with 50-55. Hopefully sooner than later. Looking at my family life after 70 seems pretty useless. Not to offend somebody here, but I want to be able to go snowboarding, snorkelling/diving, being able to do compound lifts in the gym etc. Can't imagine I'll be able to do...
by Stef
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you/did you spend your bonus on?
Replies: 100
Views: 7324

Re: What do you/did you spend your bonus on?

Will get a bonus of 16'200 net this month. 5'700 for increasing emergency fund. 10'500 will go to my taxable account (VTI/VIOV).

So I didn't really spend a cent :mrgreen:
by Stef
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

A long underperformance with the same longterm performance is actually pretty great from a monthly investing perspective. I don't mind if SCV keeps underperforming the market, as long as it matches the market performance in the end. It will mean in the end that I bought it cheaper on average and thu...
by Stef
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla Stock
Replies: 301
Views: 14682

Re: Tesla Stock

I wanted to buy at 180$ but didn't. After 400$ I thought they are just too expensive now but they are just going up into the stratosphere.

Will this be the next Apple stock? Or the biggest crash ever?
by Stef
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Test In Your Belief In Market Efficiency
Replies: 228
Views: 9963

Re: A Simple Test In Your Belief In Market Efficiency

VT is my target allocation, leaving international out is a bigger bet than a 50% US SCV tilt.
by Stef
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yeah of course but most of VTIs stocks are crap, you just don't know which.
by Stef
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Should I keep telling myself "Why didn't you buy at 180" till they reach 1+ trillion market cap? :o
by Stef
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

TSLA is just unreal.
by Stef
Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 13074

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

Only you can decide how much conviction you have in the strategy. If you do not have conviction, and have come to the conclusion that not having any tilt is the way to go, then there is nothing to think further, just sell and move into TSM. It wouldn't matter if SCV took off soon after and TSM lagg...
by Stef
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 13074

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

Damn, the whole thing lets me question if I should stick with my 50/50 TSM/SCV tilt or just go with TSM and never think about underperforming. Can’t predict the future, but generally a very bad idea to throw in the bag on a strategy AFTER a period of underperformance. Bogle himself said something t...
by Stef
Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3815
Views: 352333

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If US keeps outperforming for decades, I will srsly question the EMH.

Or is there a premium (like SCV in the past) when your flag has stars?
by Stef
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 13074

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

Damn, the whole thing lets me question if I should stick with my 50/50 TSM/SCV tilt or just go with TSM and never think about underperforming.
by Stef
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does Emerging Markets make sense?
Replies: 113
Views: 6557

Re: Does Emerging Markets make sense?

Any good FM ETF?
by Stef
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I have a question for those in early FIRE or planning on early FIRE
Replies: 81
Views: 7930

Re: I have a question for those in early FIRE or planning on early FIRE

My goal is to retire at 50-55. But I have no idea what I will do then. Probably just get a dog.
by Stef
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bonus coming in on 20th, please wait for the recocery, I want to buy the dip!
by Stef
Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 235
Views: 37354

Re: "Factor investing"

Read the whole thread while being on a speedboat from Koh Lanta to Koh Lipe. Very interesting discussion, good points from both sides.

I wonder since 3 years passed, anyone changed his mind? Any new insights from Larry or Merriman?
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14255

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:09 pm
Be that as it may, the general trend among most BHs is to treat SS benefits as longevity insurance. As such, you want the largest benefit that you can get, which means that you defer as long as you can. This also provides maximum time for Roth conversions.
Ok that is a pretty convincing argument.
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14255

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

Btw, never understood why so many plan on delaying SS? Is it worth it with any life expectancy? Any math behind it? Yes, there is math behind it. Basically if you live as long as SS thinks it is irrelevant to the amount you collect, live shorter and you lose, live longer and you win. So it is basic...
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14255

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

Btw, never understood why so many plan on delaying SS? Is it worth it with any life expectancy? Any math behind it?
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:17 pm
What makes something a value stock?
Well I guess a low price/book or price/earnings ratio?
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Goal of Early Retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3518

Re: Goal of Early Retirement?

mikael122 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:59 am
I am 22 yrs old and was wondering if there was sometype of investment "path" when the goal was early retirement say 25-30yrs.
Turning 29 on Saturday and also planning on retiring at 50-55. Why? Life is too short to spend the majority of it working.
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Dividends Benefit an Investor?
Replies: 178
Views: 8520

Re: How do Dividends Benefit an Investor?

With dividends an owner receives some of her money in the form of cash payments. How are Enron owners doing right now, with no money ever paid out in dividends? Find a greater fool to buy shares of Enron, if you're able. Good luck. :oops: If a stock never pays dividends, value only lies in what ano...
by Stef
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 14018
Views: 2289731

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

YTD: VTI: +0.3% VIOV: -4.8% SCV keeps going down :shock: Fine by me. I will keep buying it. Same with my ex-US small-value. I am really surprised there isn't more conversation in this forum around the changing sector composition of small cap value over the past 2 decades and that the traditional de...