Search found 992 matches

by Indices
Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: North Korean Bonds? Now Could Be the Time
Replies: 3
Views: 534

Re: North Korean Bonds? Now Could Be the Time

Better expected return than North Korean stocks.
by Indices
Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Took the house off the market after 9 months!
Replies: 69
Views: 6955

Re: Took the house off the market after 9 months!

What if you went into a usable field of study, law, and then the economy collapses and that group can no longer get jobs? I'm not sure I follow the logic of people here who say to go into a good field of study and then say we can't predict the future which is why I index. I have no idea which is a ...
by Indices
Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Took the house off the market after 9 months!
Replies: 69
Views: 6955

Re: Took the house off the market after 9 months!

What if you went into a usable field of study, law, and then the economy collapses and that group can no longer get jobs? I'm not sure I follow the logic of people here who say to go into a good field of study and then say we can't predict the future which is why I index. I have no idea which is a g...
by Indices
Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the most overrated book you've read?
Replies: 193
Views: 11521

Re: What's the most overrated book you've read?

Tipping Point.

Anything by Thomas Friedman.
by Indices
Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ERE blog condemns index investing. Thoughts?
Replies: 14
Views: 3031

Re: ERE blog condemns index investing. Thoughts?

Why do people read this guy? He never actually retired and from what I've read gets health insurance from his spouse who remains full time employed. And now people are willing to market time with him? Huh?
by Indices
Wed Nov 30, 2011 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much of the small cap value premium can't be captured
Replies: 26
Views: 2406

Re: Much of the small cap value premium can't be captured

If the secret is this public you can bet the premium is long gone.
by Indices
Wed Nov 30, 2011 3:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toyota Prius (3rd generation or plug in hybrid?)
Replies: 54
Views: 6026

Re: Toyota Prius (3rd generation or plug in hybrid?)

Why would I buy a car that gets 20 percent better fuel economy (a diesel) but uses fuel that is 20 percent more expensive? Maybe that makes sense in Europe where diesel is cheaper but here in the States it doesn't. Also diesel is horribly polluting even with modern pollution controls and even modern...
by Indices
Tue Nov 29, 2011 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Long Can You Wait for a Bull Market?
Replies: 90
Views: 7605

Re: How Long Can You Wait for a Bull Market?

What if there isn't another secular bull market? Really? Such a thought is as ridiculous as "DOW 40,000" on the opposite end of the spectrum. There will always be secular bulls and bears. Right, long term bear markets like Japan's which is real and happening before our very eyes are just as likely ...
by Indices
Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Long Can You Wait for a Bull Market?
Replies: 90
Views: 7605

Re: How Long Can You Wait for a Bull Market?

What if there isn't another secular bull market?
by Indices
Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PP versus 60-40
Replies: 14
Views: 1863

Re: PP versus 60-40

Name calling aside, the OP brings up an important point. What if there is no secular bull market in the future? What alternatives are there for investors with stock heavy portfolios? save more money and reduce your expectations. Or instead of committing suicide with your portfolio perhaps being ope...
by Indices
Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PP versus 60-40
Replies: 14
Views: 1863

Re: PP versus 60-40

Name calling aside, the OP brings up an important point. What if there is no secular bull market in the future? What alternatives are there for investors with stock heavy portfolios?
by Indices
Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dan Neil in WSJ: Chevy Volt a success
Replies: 334
Views: 34583

Re: Dan Neil in WSJ: Chevy Volt a success

I see the old canard that an electric car plugged into our grid is more polluting than a gasoline car. This is not true at all and ignores the fact that oil refineries are also connected to our dirty grid and that gasoline is shipped via gas burning ships and trucks. Electric cars now are far clean...
by Indices
Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dan Neil in WSJ: Chevy Volt a success
Replies: 334
Views: 34583

Re: Dan Neil in WSJ: Chevy Volt a success

I see the old canard that an electric car plugged into our grid is more polluting than a gasoline car. This is not true at all and ignores the fact that oil refineries are also connected to our dirty grid and that gasoline is shipped via gas burning ships and trucks. Electric cars now are far cleane...
by Indices
Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What type of small business would you start in this climate?
Replies: 42
Views: 3884

Re: What type of small business would you start in this clim

Tatoo Removal Is there something going on I don't know about? I live in the semi-wealthy yuppie area of Arlington, VA and a tattoo removal place just opened on the ground floor of a pretty expensive condo building, in what must be an expensive retail space. How much money could this possibly genera...
by Indices
Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What type of small business would you start in this climate?
Replies: 42
Views: 3884

Re: What type of small business would you start in this clim

bearcub wrote:Tatoo Removal
Yes this is going to be a huge business if it isn't already. Lots of bad tattoos being done, particularly of partners' names on shoulders.
by Indices
Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Broadens Portfolio by Investing $23.9B
Replies: 2
Views: 737

Re: Buffett Broadens Portfolio by Investing $23.9B

I've never seen Buffett on TV as much as I see him now. He seems obsessed with telling us good days are just around the corner, particularly for stocks (I've heard a rumor he owns a lot stocks himself).
by Indices
Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a what rates does borrowing money to invest make sense?
Replies: 51
Views: 3347

Re: a what rates does borrowing money to invest make sense?

Please tell me where I can get long-term returns of 10% on anything. You can get CDs in India that pay 10%. Most of the banking industry is nationalized so chances of default are really low. But you have currency risk, and as a non-citizen you will have to pay 33% tax in India which will be deducte...
by Indices
Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What type of small business would you start in this climate?
Replies: 42
Views: 3884

Re: What type of small business would you start in this clim

PLUMBER!!!! WE NEED PLUMBERS! Every plumber I have met makes money. The last time I called a plumber I asked him point blank what he was earning and he said even though he was a "mere" apprentice he was already earning 80k. He expected to graduate from this and it would allow him to take weekends o...
by Indices
Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your portfolio is too tied to the stock market
Replies: 45
Views: 3964

Re: Your portfolio is too tied to the stock market

I agree with Steve. Extended bear market is advantageous if you're in your accumulation phase. You get to buy more shares for less money. To be honest, I prefer the market to be just moving sideways or going down but I don't wish for this because I know a big drop in the market can possibly have bi...
by Indices
Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your portfolio is too tied to the stock market
Replies: 45
Views: 3964

Re: Your portfolio is too tied to the stock market

However, Bogleheads don't believe it is wise to go for concentrated risks whether it is individual stocks or single country markets. (Sorry, Jack). That's why Steve specifically said: "A diversified portfolio of domestic and international stocks is not reckless". Unless of course most of the world'...
by Indices
Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism
Replies: 40
Views: 3444

Re: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism

Here, I think you are making the common mistake of confusing strategy with outcome. If investors had clear crystal balls and can accurately predict the future, they would know precisely whether returns would be positive ex ante. But then again, if crystal balls were clear, there would be no risk. N...
by Indices
Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism
Replies: 40
Views: 3444

Re: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism

Yes, there is always risk investing in stocks. That's why when big events occur like the one's you describe, prices adjust (fall) in order for current buyers to agree to hold those risky assets with the expectation to earn a positive return. And that makes sense, unless of course expected returns d...
by Indices
Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism
Replies: 40
Views: 3444

Re: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism

Age in bonds is a form of market timing. It assumes that during your working years the stock market will experience more bulls than bears. No it just distributes the risk evenly - more when you're young and have time to recover, less when you age. Nick What if it takes 70 years to recover and you o...
by Indices
Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism
Replies: 40
Views: 3444

Re: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism

Age in bonds is a form of market timing. It assumes that during your working years the stock market will experience more bulls than bears. No it just distributes the risk evenly - more when you're young and have time to recover, less when you age. Nick What if it takes 70 years to recover and you o...
by Indices
Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism
Replies: 40
Views: 3444

Re: "Age in Bonds" goes against Bogleism

Age in bonds is a form of market timing. It assumes that during your working years the stock market will experience more bulls than bears.
by Indices
Wed Oct 26, 2011 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 734
Views: 164094

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

[quote="Clearly_Irrational While I'm certainly not saying that expected returns = future returns, if we completely throw out all of that data there is no way to be sure that even the permanent portfolio will have positive future returns at all and we're essentially just speculating. Based on long te...
by Indices
Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 734
Views: 164094

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

What you backtested isn't the permanent portfolio. I'm not even sure what you are backtesting. Not that backtesting tells us anything about future returns. VUSTX is not only long term bonds. Yes, a mutual fund of long term treasuries is not the same as holding actual treasuries, but for this purpos...
by Indices
Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 734
Views: 164094

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Yes, I do understand that PRPFX isn't the same as the Permanent Portfolio, but I know where to get data for the former, and not for the latter. Using Simba's backtest spreadsheet here are the allocations and real returns (CAGR) by decade: 25% Equities - TSM 25% Long Term Bonds - VUSTX 25% Money Mar...
by Indices
Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric cars
Replies: 606
Views: 137188

Re: electric cars

It's true that pure electric vehicles offer the potential to be run off of solar and wind derived power. Here, the realities of the power grid need a serious look. The biggest unsolved problem for intermittent renewables is energy storage - we don't have a good, scalable way to buffer power from th...
by Indices
Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend is an heiress, who should pay?
Replies: 197
Views: 17796

Re: Girlfriend is an heiress, who should pay?

She is testing you to see if you will sacrifice for her. Just spend what it takes to keep the relationship going, otherwise it will end. She is probably used to spending tons of money on her previous partners and wants to end that type of lifestyle.
by Indices
Wed Oct 19, 2011 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: Gold's Expected Return

5) No fiat currency has ever survived. I get tired of hearing this. Typical exchange: Goldbug: No fiat currency has ever survived Jon: How about the dollar, or the swiss franc? Goldbug: I mean, in history , none have ever survived. Jon: Well, the dollar and swiss franc have survived in history . Go...
by Indices
Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

\ We seem to be getting off the orginal topic. I am pointing out that the idea that "gold is forever while stocks always go to zero" is a poor argument. I am not arguing in this post that gold is not a good investment. I am just objecting to the idea that "gold is forever" compared to diversified s...
by Indices
Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Hi Larshus, Great first post. I disagree with you on #6 however. Romans produced far less bread per acre of land than we do now as they had far more primitive farming techniques. So actually gold now buys far more food than it did back then. People in Rome routinely went hungry and food made up a mu...
by Indices
Sat Oct 15, 2011 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Of course one diversifies their gold hoard. I never claimed you don't. In the above example, I, an American, only lose the gold I have stored in Switzerland. However, I also only lose the Swiss stocks I have, because I am diversified over many countries. Your gold hoard hopefully never goes to zero...
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is stock picking a dying art?
Replies: 38
Views: 2848

Beagler wrote:
fishnskiguy wrote:It always has been.

Chris
Then, after all these years, why hasn't it died off?
There's a sucker born every minute.
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Total price of all stocks in the year 100 was $0. Increase the price by 999999% and you get $0, which just happens to be the total price of all stocks in 101. Clearly a 999999% gain that year! And the same thing happened the next year. And the year after that. This is why the SEC requires mutual fu...
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Let's suppose a country, say Switzerland, falls apart. All my Swiss stocks and bonds are now worthless. Isn't it possible that the my gold stored in a Swiss bank vault also may be lost? Gold can be lost just like stocks and bonds when there are extreme events such as country collapses, wars, confis...
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing in Bay Area
Replies: 44
Views: 3215

Oakland?
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Look at this another way: How many ancient tombs have we found with people buried with stock and bond certificates. How many ancient tombs have we found with people covered in gold. That will give you a sense of the expected long term returns of these assets based on a review of past performance. Al...
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketing basics
Replies: 8
Views: 859

Marketing is a very broad term. There are many forms of marketing. There is advertising, public relations, public affairs, government affairs, media relations, product management etc. As an engineer you are probably most interested in product management, sales and possibly advertising. You may also ...
by Indices
Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

That said, I'm doing pretty well with the Permanent Portfolio of 75% assets that have a real return of 0. In fact, PP is beating just about every Boglehead portfolio out there. No guarantee it will continue going forward, but I'll take my chances. The long term expected return of the PP should be l...
by Indices
Thu Oct 13, 2011 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

But certainly gold has been around much longer than bitcoin. And stocks and bonds. My point is if we are going to use past performance to predict future returns, then gold is really the only reliable investment as stock and bond markets (and the countries that run them) come and go, but gold is for...
by Indices
Thu Oct 13, 2011 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold's Expected Return
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Interestingly, throughout most of history the US stock market and the US bond market had a value of zero since they didn't exist. Gold, bizarrely, had value throughout the whole of human history regardless of country.
by Indices
Sat Oct 08, 2011 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies
Replies: 26
Views: 2306

Re: No Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies

Triple digit golfer wrote:Born and raised and still living in the Chicago metro area, I am thrilled to see that neither the Yankees, Red Sox, nor the Phillies will win the World Series.

All is well in the baseball world!
+1000. All that money, and all for nothing.
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ths flight to quality in stocks??
Replies: 18
Views: 2134

Stocks are always more risky than bonds, at least government bonds. Governments default only occasionally, stocks leave the index and disappear every day.
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100/100 asset allocation
Replies: 234
Views: 22147

It is pretty commonly understood that the expected returns for equities are higher than for bonds. The risk-adjusted returns for 100% equity portfolio is NOT as high as if there are some bonds in it, because the returns on bonds vs. equities is only partially correlated. That's what's not just "pre...
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100/100 asset allocation
Replies: 234
Views: 22147

cb474, It's not about being openminded or close minded. It's about likelihood of succeeding. A 100 per cent equity portfolio has very little chance of succeeding, and even if it succeeds will be very volatile regardless of the openmindedness of the investor. The market moves wherever it wants, the l...
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OK would you prefer 2% 0r -1%
Replies: 16
Views: 2100

Sometimes bonds outperform stocks. Even short term bonds. Like now.
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Great day for humanity: Yankees lose
Replies: 39
Views: 3054

Manbaerpig wrote:yes yankees lose! now all I need is for the phillies to follow suit and I'm good!
+1. The Phillies have become the NL Yankees. Go Cardinals!
by Indices
Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Great day for humanity: Yankees lose
Replies: 39
Views: 3054

BenBritt wrote:Hating the Yankees is the pastime of losers.
Not this year Yankee fan. See you next season!