Search found 192 matches

by ukbogler
Fri May 01, 2020 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8015

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

It’s not about unlimited protection from risk, it’s about controlling risk. If the stock allocation goes lower the you expose yourself to more risk. Ah. That makes it clear. So you market time based on your perceptions of risk, and your expectations of risk going forward. Gotcha. You expect a bette...
by ukbogler
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8015

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Rebalancing with bands is not market timing. It is controlling portfolio risk. Nonsense. It may function to help protect against risk, but selling bonds to buy more stocks when stocks fall is more about hoping for increased returns going forward. Otherwise why rebalance? You now have BETTER risk pr...
by ukbogler
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8015

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Lots and lots of Bogleheads actually do market timing in the negative sense: They do NOT rebalance when rebalancing is called for. Indeed, many post proudly about "I did not look and I did nothing." Or "I only rebalance once a year on my birthday." LOL! Yet, their mentors like Jason Zweig, Jonathan...
by ukbogler
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8015

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

Bogleheads market time, apparently. That's all 'rebalancing' is It's reacting to what has already happened, not to what you think will happen in the future. So why do you do it then? Is it to 'worsen' your overall position? Or is it because you think it will improve your position in the future? Rol...
by ukbogler
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8015

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

This is question for Timers only, NOT for buy and hold folks.. If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now? Some indicators used in timing models. Yes, some of these are lagging indicators. - Unemployment rate heading to 20% - Consumer sentiment is in the dump - Vo...
by ukbogler
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12985

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Note to OP: these posters have absolutely no idea. I'm confident that not a single one of them, if asked on March 23, 2020, would have had any inkling that the S&P 500 would be nearing 3000 in April. Sven from northmantrader said a bounce to 3k was a distinct possibility. He also called the initial...
by ukbogler
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."
Replies: 23
Views: 1326

Re: Is this true, "You should never pay a premium for a good stock."

(If you're a party-line Boglehead, then you assume everything is fairly priced and it is irrelevant when you buy.) and that's the second problem with the bogglehead philosophy - sure, stocks are always priced correctly, because the market sets the price by definition. However, they may not always b...
by ukbogler
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend cuts
Replies: 9
Views: 950

Dividend cuts

2020 is already apparently the second worst year for announced dividend cuts. It looks likely to become the worst, fast. If the market wakes up and notices reality, it will be heading south fast, so total returns including dividends will be terrible. Gonna need some pretty fast-footed 'rebalancing' ...
by ukbogler
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 264
Views: 20783

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Still not trying to call the bottom, just have a firm belief that the Market will have another leg down (minimum) before we are past this. Discussion back and forth thru short term gyrations is probably not as useful. My thesis and my point is still why someone would pay more than they would in Dec...
by ukbogler
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 1360

Re: Estimating Future Returns

10 year S&P prediction... Assumptions: * US CPI inflation stays close to 2%, which is the average for the last 20 years * S&P 500 real earnings growth stays close to 4%, which is the average for the last 20 years * Nominal S&P 500 earnings growth therefore runs at 6% * S&P 500 CAPE returns to its 10...
by ukbogler
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Problem? with the 3 Fund Portfolio - what to do with Market Education?
Replies: 22
Views: 1325

Re: A Problem? with the 3 Fund Portfolio - what to do with Market Education?

Ur wasting your time buddy. Bogleheads have 'seen the light', and don't adapt to market conditions, they simply 'rebalance'.

As an insight into cultist mental aberration, this forum is fascinating. In a few years, people will look back at these guys and wonder 'What were they smoking?'
by ukbogler
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?
Replies: 26
Views: 2270

Re: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?

Refusing to buy because the price is too high isn't 'market timing', it's common sense. The market is usually at an all-time high , so how can you discern the moments when it’s too high from when it’s appropriately high? You have to use your common sense. For example, historically overblown CAPEs, ...
by ukbogler
Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?
Replies: 26
Views: 2270

Re: Are you a market timer if you sit on cash?

Refusing to buy because the price is too high isn't 'market timing', it's common sense.
by ukbogler
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 264
Views: 20783

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

No need to flame you. I will simply point out the obvious: if you have a set asset allocation, it should be the same allocation in December 2018, December 2019 and December 2020. Rebalance. Just rebalance. No need to overreact, or react with emotion to what should be a logical plan. Also, trying to...
by ukbogler
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum
Replies: 30
Views: 1883

Re: Declines in stocks do not occur in a vacuum

You're on the right track. You just need to embrace the idea that when facts change your own responses to the situation need to change too. This is SOP for life in general, and to sit here repeating '60:40 or '2 funds for the long term' is to miss the fact that you're basically using the past to pre...
by ukbogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Jack Bogle Do?
Replies: 45
Views: 3312

Re: What Would Jack Bogle Do?

I'm going to go with "Turn in his grave" for $500 please Bob.
by ukbogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13023

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

amen to that, pilgrim
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks vs dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 342

Re: Buybacks vs dividends

Wrong . Immediately after the ex dividend date, the price should fall to reflect the distribution. Arbitrage opportunities do sometimes exist, but they are uncommon. However , very shortly afterwards, the event is in the past, and the price goes on to do whatever it does, and the fact of the distri...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated 3/18 - "You can't hide in bonds" article
Replies: 183
Views: 10157

Re: "You can't hide in bonds" article

Interesting how global agg funds like GLAB are getting whacked too. Kind of glad I never managed to get to asset allocation on that one.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"
Replies: 51
Views: 6757

Re: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"

james22 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:09 pm
Thank you, John Hussman!
Hussman getting his day in the sun finally! He's told you how far it needs to fall just to get back to 'normal', BTW.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 4456

Re: Why not liquidate?

vipertom1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:49 am
OP, if you are one 100% sure then SHORT sell the market to make money. We must be close to the bottom with all these panic threads.
Nowhere near. S&P even torched the 2018 lows yet. US market still wildly overvalued.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks vs dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 342

Re: Buybacks vs dividends

The market tanking doesn't change anything. If companies paid dividends instead of executing share buybacks, the price of their shares would be lower now, and total return would be the same. Wrong . Immediately after the ex dividend date, the price should fall to reflect the distribution. Arbitrage...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks vs dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 342

Buybacks vs dividends

So... all those corporate buybacks were OK because 'they are functionally equivalent to dividends'. At least until the market tanks. At which point it becomes obvious what they actually were - lazy corp execs burning VAST amounts of shareholder money to secure themseves personally bonuses worth smal...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 186
Views: 28540

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

chatbotte wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:00 am
How do you explain this?

Image
Now that I like. Personally, I LOVE dividends. Anybody doesn't want theirs, just send 'em to me.
by ukbogler
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 59
Views: 7921

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Yield curve inversion - another antiquated outdated red flag (which worked). Yup. Ignore at your peril. There are a lot of people on here who don't understand correlation OR causation. I don't need to understand the causation to take advantage of correlation where there is an underlying causation r...
by ukbogler
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 153
Views: 17098

Re: The Black Swan is Here

What annoys me about this swan is I felt like I could see it coming from a good distance away. Staying the course really led me strait into an iceberg. My defense strategy is that I still have the benefit of time. 'Staying the course' = 'Ignore developments'. A rational person changes his mind when...
by ukbogler
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?
Replies: 35
Views: 2052

Re: At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?

1500 ish? Hard one, because there's so much else that would still be 'better value' than US stuff. No offence.
by ukbogler
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 59
Views: 7921

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Well, I would never say never (except that one time which serves as an exception to never saying never)... but, I haven't found a metric that is useful at predicting the future better then the market consensus. But if you think you have that magic touch by all means go for it - I just hope you were...
by ukbogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?
Replies: 101
Views: 6127

Re: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?

This entire thread is silly. Show me some stats that buying after a crash does worse over the next 10 years than buying just before the crash
by ukbogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10783

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

OP I suggest you read this thread on recovery after crash it is relevant to your quest. Cyclingduo post describes the pluses and minuses of "Tiffany (buys right before major drops), Brittany (buys at the lows after major drops), and Sarah (buys all the time no matter what the price)". https://www.b...
by ukbogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38341

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

S&P is going to revisit 1500.

I'd be interested in starting to drip back in when it's 35% off, and continue for as long as it takes. Above those levels, it's a pup, and will do nothing but bite you on the *ss for 10 years.
by ukbogler
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone here keeps super low GTC limit orders ...
Replies: 4
Views: 395

Re: Does anyone here keeps super low GTC limit orders ...

You are the shoeshine boy with his $1 limit order in 1929 who ended up owning most of the company and I claim my $5
by ukbogler
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invested at the peak of the market
Replies: 17
Views: 1246

Re: Invested at the peak of the market

If you put in that money into the US stock market, you could maybe get it back in ten years. Assuming all the predictions of zero or negative growth are off by wide margins. Tough break, buddy.
by ukbogler
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3928

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

You can't say we didn't warn you. Those of us who paid attention are making out like bandits right now. Fantastic time to have cash and a shopping list.
by ukbogler
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not even "The End of The beginning"
Replies: 37
Views: 5200

Re: It's not even "The End of The beginning"

Drip some money in as it hits levels. Assume it has further to go. If it bounces back quickly, you'll be DCAing back up the other side.
by ukbogler
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Solution
Replies: 20
Views: 1262

Re: My Solution

Just a thought, instead of agonizing over the drop in your balances try just focusing on number of shares you own. Obviously if you didn't panic sell you own exactly the same number of shares as you did a month ago, and with new money and dividend reinvestment your gaining more shares at a lower pr...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: officially bear market ...
Replies: 77
Views: 7125

Re: officially bear market ...

teelainen wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:57 pm

Hopefully it is only 40-50% like you said. Hopefully it will not be 60-70%.
That's the Hussman prediction. Not looking so silly now, is he?
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?
Replies: 101
Views: 6127

Re: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?

So, can anyone show me any reasonable empirical evidence that returns following a dip are greater? Take the opportunity here to school myself and other Bogleheads. If there isn't any good evidence, can we, I don't know, provide some wiki page or sticky thread to link to whenever someone suggests it...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Portfolio for coronavirus times
Replies: 14
Views: 1423

Re: Best Portfolio for coronavirus times

The best portfolio for these “uncertain times” is the portfolio that you wrote into your IPS before the start of the “uncertain times”. Portfolio revisions done during times of emotional stress seldom benefit the owner. DON'T EVOLVE! DON'T ADAPT! DON'T CHANGE YOUR OPINION DUE TO NEW INFORMATION! BE...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Returns
Replies: 13
Views: 622

Re: Investment Returns

mega317 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:21 am
Your question isn't stupid but I have a stupid one to ask back at you. Why are you looking at those numbers? Hopefully it's not to decide what funds to buy.
Pass me the darts and the money, time to 'choose' something to invest in.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697192

Re: S&P battleground Wednesday March 11th 2020

Here we go again. The 2750 level held yesterday, but will it hold today? If not, 'Look out below!!!' Is this a forecast that this will occur on every 11th day in 2020 or a specific one, I guess any Wednesday 11th 😀 Hee hee The bulls have to hold the line. If they can't, what's to stop it retesting ...
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.
Replies: 42
Views: 1924

Re: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.

David Jay wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:30 pm
The ideal percentage is zero. Bitcoin does not belong in an investment portfolio.
what Jay said.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697192

S&P battleground Wednesday 11th 2020

Here we go again. The 2750 level held yesterday, but will it hold today? If not, 'Look out below!!!'
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you turn? [What to do with excess cash flow?]
Replies: 23
Views: 2150

Re: Where do you turn?

vipertom1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:33 am
pay down your mortgage or pay it off, it's a guarantee 3% gain.
he has none. I suppose he could leverage it up, get a better house.
by ukbogler
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor psychology during market turmoil
Replies: 3
Views: 427

Re: Investor psychology during market turmoil

What's the total return since... say... 2018?
by ukbogler
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book About the Futility of Predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 710

Re: Book About the Futility of Predictions

Fooled by Randomness? Nick Taleb?
by ukbogler
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?
Replies: 100
Views: 10139

Re: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?

Busdrvr wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:38 am
I am.

So far today purchased 35k in spy.
Congrats. See u at 2350
by ukbogler
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson
Replies: 44
Views: 4307

Re: "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal" - Ben Carlson

This guy says you absolutely should use it Or '12 month SMA'. Or any SMA, in fact. But then he's barking mad, and is trying to sell you his leveraged trading systems so you can go barking mad too.

https://michaelritger.com