Search found 68 matches

by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

Anyway, yeah global cap weighting is a sensible approach, but you either need to hedge the equities or hold bonds (or perhaps real estate) to reduce currency risk. Or just accept that you are holding a basket of currencies and come what may. OK, I'll try and keep this very simple for you. Imagine y...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

This week, VWRL collapsed over 1% on the back of the pound strengthening. It's priced in GBP (we're talking UK here, remember?) but the underlyings are priced in USD, from what I can gather. So the risk is USD - GBP. The USD priced and denominated funds, sucj as the various ACWI funds, went up prop...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

That actually does nothing to alleviate currency risk. It's the currency of the underlying holdings that matters, not the fund denomination. So VWRL has the same currency exposure whether in Sterling or USD. This week, VWRL collapsed over 1% on the back of the pound strengthening. It's priced in GB...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

If currency risk is an issue, hold two world trackers, one, such as VWRL denominated in sterling, the other denominated in USD... Thoughts? That actually does nothing to alleviate currency risk. It's the currency of the underlying holdings that matters, not the fund denomination. So VWRL has the sa...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:12 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

In fact, if the latest musings from Goldman are correct, and bonds are losing their inverse correlation with stocks Where can I read these musings? oops. My bad. BOA. These giant evil squid companies are all the same to us non-us peeps. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-declares-the...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

What ruling elite are you talking about exactly? I don’t know what Goldman said, but I do know he also cannot predict the future. The GOP. They're in charge right now, and certainly regard themselves as 'elite' even if nobody else does. Agree about the future, still, it's a commentary on possible f...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

The typical Boglehead approach is to: 1- choose your equity/bond split according to the risk you need, are able, and willing to take. 2- for bonds: choose something that is stable in your currency; this can be hedged. 3- for equity: diversify; a world fund is a neutral starting position; aligning o...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

Re: UK Investors - simplified strategy

If currency risk is an issue, hold two world trackers, one, such as VWRL denominated in sterling, the other denominated in USD... Thoughts? That actually does nothing to alleviate currency risk. It's the currency of the underlying holdings that matters, not the fund denomination. So VWRL has the sa...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investors - simplified strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 1185

UK Investors - simplified strategy

Hello UK investors. A thought has bubbled up to the surface, on the back of perusing all these bogley forums. Seems to me that predicting what is likely to work in future isn't really possible. No matter what the past says, you can only use it to make assumptions about the future until it stops work...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

But BH's basic idea is you *don't* know how to beat the market. Agree. Which is why I referred to the fella as 'mad'. The article though is different, seeing as he just cribbed it from Bogle's book, and I thought it might spur some thought as to whether overweighting the USofA was such a great idea...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I am puzzled as to why an individual who believes returns will be low single digits over the next decade, why would they buy stocks at all. As I understand it, he's also a trend follower, and rotates into and out of stocks when they cross some arbitrary trend line. He also splits his portfolio betw...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Hey man, you started the thread and asked for opinions. You're being a bit cheeky here saying other people need to prove CAPE wrong. We've already provided some reasons for it being messed up.... I've posted some information about that but you still haven't engaged. I'm not 'engaging' because your ...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

[Comments removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] The predicted growth is composed of three factors. 1. Dividends 2. Earnings growth 3. P/E multiple speculation. The first, dividends, is a matter of historical record, and has been low and stable for some time. If you think dividends are suddenly going...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Whenever people look at future return scenarios, the consensus seems to be that future returns will be lower. I have yet to see lots of predictions that it will be higher. My question is, why? have a look at that picture I posted up above. People are expecting future returns to be lower because of ...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

It seems to me the prudent thing to do, if you believe in 1%, is switch to a dividend strategy: A porfolio heavily invested in consumer staple companies that have a demonstrated ability to turn a profit without growth. They would likely strive to reduce expenses to increase profitability and share ...
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I'm loving all the people banging on about chi squared tests and how 'CAPE is unimportant' :-) :-)

Image

It looks like a fairly useful correlation to me...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I don't have to point out the flaws in the formula. I can just point to Bogle's predictions consistently underestimating stock returns. If the data don't support a model, then there's a strong likelihood that the model is wrong. Unfortunately, it's unscientific to say "I don't like the fella who ca...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I don't know if I would, but the article linked in the OP was dated November 30, 2018, the Bogle article dates from Oct 2017. Unless he meant it to begin the moment the article went to print, we can assume he meant 'shortly'. From start of 2018, the S&P was at 28 and change. Remind me again where i...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Bogle had a record of consistently underestimating stock returns. If you'll pardon the metaphor, even a broken clock is right twice a day. This no disrespect for the gentleman that Bogle was. If you don't rate his abilities, why are you on a Bogle forum? Anyhoo, you don't have to agree or disagree ...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I don't put any stock into market predictions like this, especially "market predictions for the next decade." I don't care who it comes from, Bogle, Vanguard, Schiller, Fama, French, whoever... Would you 'put stock into it' if we were at the end of the predicted period and it turned out to be right...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

petulant wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:56 pm

If using 2018 data to extrapolate returns to 2028 is "brave," why is it any more sane to use 2009 data?
To construct a trend you need more than one data point. Allegedly.
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Over the last 12 months 1% would look good compared to the 1 point the SPY has risen (287.4 to 288.5). I think that is about 0.3% for the year ending 10/8/2019. I wouldn't be surprised if the market has a rough decade. [snip] Nice thoughts, thanks. Mind sharing your asset allocations in more detail...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

(Not that CAPE even matters for the formula calculation) As I understand his reasoning, he uses CAPE because he's trying to extrapolate a decade into the future. Extrapolating 10 years using a single previous year's P/E is kind of brave. Hence use the CAPE because it's an average that reveals the t...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

I come to the same conclusion using a related approach, which relates the fraction of all investments as equities to the future returns ( Now is a good time to be an early accumulator ). The data from 1945 on suggest returns will be -3.3 to 4.7 percent over the next decade (most likely around 1 per...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

... AFAIR, he's using the CAPE, and he explains why. That wouldn't be "John Bogle's Formula" then, nor does it represent the actual price multiple people are buying stocks at today, relative to the P/E multiple of 20 that he's predicting for the future. As I said, he explains why in the article. Bo...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Current P/E: 21.53 P/E Ratios for past decade: Jan 1, 2019 19.60 Jan 1, 2018 24.97 Jan 1, 2017 23.59 Jan 1, 2016 22.18 Jan 1, 2015 20.02 Jan 1, 2014 18.15 Jan 1, 2013 17.03 Jan 1, 2012 14.87 Jan 1, 2011 16.30 Jan 1, 2010 20.70 https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year The average P/E ra...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Future returns will likely be much higher, if the market significantly drops. Those things happen and haven’t happen in over a decade.... How lucky are you feeling about that prospect? Looking at the numbers from the Bogle formula, seems to me that barring some kind of unexpected tech revolution, t...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:46 am
what gives you comfort that UK will outperform?
I don't. the author of the article does. Although if you plug the UK figures into Bogle's formula, you might be interested to see what comes out the other end.
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Don't get me wrong, I think he's barking mad too, but if you plug the numbers into Bogle's formula as he suggests, you get a lousy 1%. So where do you think future capital appreciation will come from then? An increase in earnings growth when the rest of the world is slowing down? Or an expansion of ...
by ukbogler
Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19949

John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

This article is from a 'financial adviser' who advocates (among other things) a momentum strategy over 5 asset classes. Now while he claims to have found a simple way to ratchet returns upwards using that strategy, [OT comment removed -- mod oldcomputerguy] , his article about the US markets seems m...
by ukbogler
Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets as a percent of international
Replies: 37
Views: 3277

Re: Emerging markets as a percent of international

...The problem is that these percentages constantly fluctuate, so if your IPS calls for market cap holdings, you can't have fixed allocations. All of these questions are wonderfully quaint for those of us on the global market cap bandwagon. VTWAX and done. related question... I can't buy VTWAX with...
by ukbogler
Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets as a percent of international
Replies: 37
Views: 3277

Re: Emerging markets as a percent of international

...The problem is that these percentages constantly fluctuate, so if your IPS calls for market cap holdings, you can't have fixed allocations. All of these questions are wonderfully quaint for those of us on the global market cap bandwagon. VTWAX and done. related question... I can't buy VTWAX with...
by ukbogler
Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

For convenience, these links are: Simple non-US portfolios - Bogleheads Canadian versions of lazy portfolios - Bogleheads Most non-US pages end with a set of links to other non-US specific pages: Template:Non-US domiciles - Bogleheads You can also get an outline of the non-US wiki here, linked dire...
by ukbogler
Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Top of page of your wiki link: This page contains details specific to United States (US) investors, and does not apply to non-US investors. Non-US investors can find related information at Simple non-US portfolios and Canadian versions of lazy portfolios. are you talking about THIS page? https://ww...
by ukbogler
Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

I couldn't find that in the philosophy: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy How to set up a 3 ufnd portfolio. "These typically consist of three equal parts of bonds (total bond market or TIPS), total US market and total international market." If that's only for US...
by ukbogler
Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:08 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Valuethinker wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:28 am
So why then overweight the UK index?
Because that seems to be the boglehead philosophy. Or that's how it looks in the getting started' section. Feel free to enlighten us.
by ukbogler
Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:27 am

It's an argument for global diversification and not trying to anticipate the market.
which is the point of this thread.
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investor: Living Off Your Money book - Portfolio Construction
Replies: 5
Views: 445

Re: UK Investor: Living Off Your Money book - Portfolio Construction

This:- https://optimizeyourretirement.com/the-triad-portfolio/ Sounds like more work than a Boglefolio, and unless you get lucky with your choices, I doubt you'll outperform. That's the beauty of Bogling; little work, three pots, good chance of beating almost every other investment style over the lo...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Cheers - I suspect I'll just keep it simple, with VWRL for the international bit, even if the fees are relatively high. Other poster, thanks for the tip re bogle philosophy on source of income. While I broadly agree, I disagree with your musings on markets. True, markets are very good at setting pri...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Domestic market bias
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: Domestic market bias

I don't agree with Bogle and many others who preach the notion of buying the whole haystack, i.e. a broad-based index, but somehow limit their haystack selection to just the US haystack. I see no reason this shouldn't be extended to the global haystack. Cheers, agree with you. Most rational people ...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

"I have faith in the UK" In the sense that I live here, and if the FTSE goes to hell in a handcart and never comes back , I'll have bigger problems than worrying about CAGRs. As I explained, I need income, and the FTSE churns out almost 5%. That has been its only saving grace since about 2000 in fa...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

It looks like the main difference between those two is that HMWO excludes emerging markets. Personally I use the Vanguard Developed Markets, Vanguard Emerging Markets and Vanguard FTSE 100 ETFs. I have a slight home bias but nowhere near what you plan. The UK may be undervalued, but for me it's not...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Are you holding 40 UK / 20 World? That's a lot of home bias. not yet - still have a big warchest - it's the current plan though. I have faith in the UK, like the yanks have faith in the SP. Over longer term, back down the percentage, I guess to the point where international diversification no longe...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Domestic market bias
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: Domestic market bias

First off, if you have no other source of income, you get (AFAIR) 11,000 allowance, no tax, no need to even declare it. If you're married that's 22k of dividends to spend, no tax. You also get something similar in cap gains allowance, so you can potentially extract 40k from the pot without tax using...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Domestic market bias
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: Domestic market bias

It is a bit worrying the FTSE 100 is so 'old skool'. That's probably why it yields so well. Lots of money in pimping drugs, smokes, loans to the desperate, and shiny bling :D :D :D
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

actually, it seems to me that you might as well just go with VWRL or HMWO, which includes about 5% of FTSE in it. So if, for example, you had it split 40 domestic /20 world, you'd actually be holding 41 domestic or thereabouts, hardly enough difference to matter. Or just scale back the world by 1%. ...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Re: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Thanks, as you say, the fees seem high.
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:05 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?
Replies: 34
Views: 2291

Anyone know of an ETF that tracks teh whole world except UK?

Just wondering if anyone can recommend an ETF that tracks the entire world excluding the UK. I'm currently using a Legal & General fund, but I'd rather use an ETF... long shot I know, because I can't find one anywhere...
by ukbogler
Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Domestic market bias
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: Domestic market bias

Great stuff guys, thanks for your answers! As always, well thought out and informative!
by ukbogler
Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK - which global bond fund is better?
Replies: 10
Views: 685

Re: UK - which global bond fund is better?

The Vanguard is a fund, at 0.15%. The others are ETFs, at 0.1% ecah. I think I'll go with the one that's been established longest...