Search found 336 matches

by theorist
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 241
Views: 51208

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Thought I would check in as I near the end of the 1st Quarter of 2020. Thought I would post Year To Date results for different asset classes as represented by actual investments that I own. Here is my portfolio status as of now: 40.65% US Stocks 15.27% International Stocks 39.11% Bonds 04.48% Cash ...
by theorist
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market up today?
Replies: 4
Views: 548

Re: Why is the market up today?

I think both the extended hiatus and the case statistics are now turning into good news for the economy. — almost everyone knowledgeable said reopening stores on April 12 would be a disaster. It would cause rapid re-acceleration of case growth followed by another immediate shutdown. The delay out to...
by theorist
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: i cannot help myself anymore [buy the dip?]
Replies: 44
Views: 3408

Re: i cannot help myself anymore [buy the dip?]

i'm a firm believer in buy and hold ..index funds for decades and i'm all VFIAX @ Vanguard however, the last few days i'm constantly starring at all these huge discounts at individual stocks i'm tempted to buy so bad ..i keep talking about it nonstop and i can't help myself yes i know some of you w...
by theorist
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 17945
Views: 2538516

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Now we get to see if the market is really as forward looking as we always hear. With another month of shelter in place and given the deceleration curves already visible in places like CA, we can start to see businesses opening up in early May with moderate confidence. Casualties around 200k (Fauci’s...
by theorist
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone considered a 10% rebalance band?
Replies: 2
Views: 218

Re: Has anyone considered a 10% rebalance band?

With this extreme volatility, I wonder if anyone has considered a 10% rebalancing band instead of the usual 5%. What would be the positives and negatives? Paul For e.g. a 70/30 portfolio, starting from the right balance, it would require a 35% market drawdown to hit the lower edge of the band. That...
by theorist
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: biotech stocks to buy
Replies: 8
Views: 432

Re: biotech stocks to buy

OP, If you’re pretty sure biotech will outperform but are not quite sure which companies, a compromise is to allocate some $ to a mutual fund which is concentrated in biotech. At the extreme end are sector funds like Fidelity select biotechnology (FBIOX). At the more moderate end are some of the Pri...
by theorist
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review
Replies: 7
Views: 347

Re: portfolio review

Hello, I have some minor comments. In general a portfolio of 50% stocks, 15% real estate, 5% REITS, 20% bonds, 5% gold, and 5% cash would not be a bad choice for someone with the right level of ability and desire to take risk. But my own comments would be the following based on what you say: — it se...
by theorist
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suggest best readings of past 30 days?
Replies: 11
Views: 960

Re: Suggest best readings of past 30 days?

I listen to a variety of podcasts and read the articles posted on blogs of the casters I enjoy. Two who have mostly been posting good, common sense advice are Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson. You can find their blogs here: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ They ha...
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating VTSAX
Replies: 7
Views: 775

Re: Approximating VTSAX

Vanguard Institutional Index tracks the S&P 500, which is more than 80% of the U.S. stock market. I'd use that one and call it a day. In fact, I do. The performance of the 500 and the total market are nearly identical over time. However, you can combine it with the extended market index fund at abo...
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating VTSAX
Replies: 7
Views: 775

Re: Approximating VTSAX

VINIX and FSMAX together do it. The former tracks the S&P 500; the latter is Fidelity’s completion fund covering the complement of S&P 500 in the total market. Holding them in a 4-1 ratio will approximate VTSAX well enough for essentially all purposes.
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?
Replies: 44
Views: 2675

Re: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?

I also hold the Vanguard California intermediate and long term municipal bond funds in my taxable accounts. I was worried for a day or two, but they have recovered nicely, and I plan to maintain my holdings. The yields actually look pretty good right now. (I mean compared to their recent sub-microsc...
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 74
Views: 4013

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

Maybe this is trivial and obvious, but what worked for me so far during the drawdown is my asset allocation. I have 30% in bonds. At times I’ve felt it is too conservative. At times, too aggressive. But by and large, that allocation has kept me comforted. Even on the 10% + down day, I was thinking “...
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 103
Views: 12385

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Optimistic case: busy with elephant sized purchase(s)

Pessimistic case: he or Charlie is fighting illness

Perhaps it is neither, since guessing at what is going on in other people’s lives is notoriously difficult.
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 434
Views: 29170

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Certainly starting to feel like a bottom under this thing. Calmer waters right now, bonds are almost back to even after this week. Pretty darn hard here to resist the urge to nibble at this thing :D . I am still trying to decide whether it is truly attractive yet, or whether to just keep up my biwe...
by theorist
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suggest best readings of past 30 days?
Replies: 11
Views: 960

Re: Suggest best readings of past 30 days?

I listen to a variety of podcasts and read the articles posted on blogs of the casters I enjoy. Two who have mostly been posting good, common sense advice are Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson. You can find their blogs here: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ They hav...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting read: "Analyzing the Effects of Aggressive Rebalancing During Bear Markets"
Replies: 11
Views: 1140

Re: Interesting read: "Analyzing the Effects of Aggressive Rebalancing During Bear Markets"

I just re-balanced today because I hit one year since I last re-balanced. This resulted in me selling $100K in bond index in exchange for stock index. I thought about *not* re-balancing because of the market situation. My target stock/bond ratio is 50/50. It was a little over 55/45 when I re-balanc...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting read: "Analyzing the Effects of Aggressive Rebalancing During Bear Markets"
Replies: 11
Views: 1140

Re: Interesting read: "Analyzing the Effects of Aggressive Rebalancing During Bear Markets"

It is interesting, but the trouble is that when the market crosses 20% down and you think about rebalancing, you don’t already know whether it will continue down to cross 40% or not. So you either have to bravely forego getting the stocks on sale at -20% to hope for -40%, or do something like their ...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help building portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 390

Re: Need help building portfolio

Hi Alex, Ah! Well, to back test portfolios I’d go here https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ and click on the “backtest portfolio” link. It lets you enter fund tickers and look at hypothetical performances for different portfolios over various periods in the past. If you don’t like doing this, any nu...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scheduling discretionary additions to account
Replies: 9
Views: 266

Re: Scheduling discretionary additions to account

Presumably you have a choice of what to invest in: equities or fixed income. So contributions per se don't need to be timed. Yes, I choose mostly between total market, total international market, and muni bonds. But I find myself waiting with the $ for days when the S&P 500 is down a few percent (f...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scheduling discretionary additions to account
Replies: 9
Views: 266

Re: Scheduling discretionary additions to account

Presumably you have a choice of what to invest in: equities or fixed income. So contributions per se don't need to be timed. Yes, I choose mostly between total market, total international market, and muni bonds. But I find myself waiting with the $ for days when the S&P 500 is down a few percent (f...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scheduling discretionary additions to account
Replies: 9
Views: 266

Scheduling discretionary additions to account

Hi — I’m in a situation I imagine many other bogleheads have. I have biweekly contributions to retirement accounts going in on Mondays and Tuesdays every other week (for some reason the 457 at Fidelity clears a day after the 401). But I have “left over” income after we spend what we need/want, that ...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help building portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 390

Re: Need help building portfolio

Those would be VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR respectively. A good holding pattern for a * mild * small and value tilt might be 60%, 20%, 10%, 10%. You’d probably want some bonds too, depending on your risk tolerance and need to take risk. The tilt away from growth isn’t uncommon here, but note that we have...
by theorist
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Tilt Equities: More EM and Smaller?
Replies: 8
Views: 393

Re: Tilt Equities: More EM and Smaller?

Good to see you here Taylor! Lurking on the non-USA boards. I like it. I find it useful to copy and paste the ETF symbol into the search box of: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/ Here are the 4 equity ETFs discussed. VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) VWRD (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF) WSML ...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:03 pm
WOW 3/26/2020 DOW up another 1,322 points :sharebeer
Somehow, this worries me. (Yes, I know, I don’t know nuthin’; and I am still fully invested at my AA.)
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put). Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve. Cite? From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put). Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve. Cite? From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 434
Views: 29170

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go. I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case. I take interest in leverage as people seeing more upside than...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 434
Views: 29170

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

The level of hysterics from some posters is so over the top, you'd expect that the world is completely ending. First world people have first world problems. You can't go to DisneyWorld or get appletinis at will right now. Some bar/restaurants are giving takeout of all drinks. So, I think you can ge...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The pattern has also been interesting between asset classes. Small value has been killing it! (Though today’s gains may yet evaporate; and of course small value has been taking it on the chin for a LONG time.)
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unemployment numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 2769

Re: Unemployment numbers

This is nuts, record unemployment claims and somehow the futures is still pointing towards a positive day, presumably because it isn't as bad as the worst estimate of 4MM claims that Citi had issued! Am really learning this month how markets are priced based on future predictions and therefore tryi...
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unemployment numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 2769

Re: Unemployment numbers

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:43 am
Image

Not really.
“Already priced in”?
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unemployment numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 2769

Unemployment numbers

Unemployment claims at 3.3 million. Does this get us another 20% down?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-week ... ion-2020-3
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 104
Views: 18476

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

Happy to see this thread! I’m 49 with a 70/30 allocation, and it is good to see lots of company. (At least, 5 years ago.)
by theorist
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help building portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 390

Re: Need help building portfolio

Those would be VOO, VTV, VB, and VBR respectively. A good holding pattern for a * mild * small and value tilt might be 60%, 20%, 10%, 10%. You’d probably want some bonds too, depending on your risk tolerance and need to take risk. The tilt away from growth isn’t uncommon here, but note that we have ...
by theorist
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Core Stock Fund (VWICX/VZICX)
Replies: 4
Views: 369

Re: Vanguard International Core Stock Fund (VWICX/VZICX)

I have held this fund since shortly after it opened. It is about 20% of my international holding in my taxable account. The majority is in VTIAX (total international index), with bits in VEMAX (the emerging markets index fund) and a global growth tilted fund from T. Rowe Price (PRGSX).
by theorist
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 434
Views: 29170

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I obviously don’t know, but I’d be surprised if we’ve seen the bottom. My biggest concern: China learns that it needs to take stricter measures once again, and its economy does not ramp back up. That would likely mean we and Europe would have the same fate after a first few weeks of lockdown. We hav...
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 103
Views: 12385

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

vbdoug wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:36 pm
So is anyone buying Berkshire? I am considering it.
I bought some more shares of Berkshire B when it was around 160-175 in the past few days!
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone using QQQ?
Replies: 7
Views: 601

Re: Anyone using QQQ?

Is there a mutual fund equivalent for QQQ? I was looking into TRP Blue Chip Growth a while back, but again maybe not exactly the same concept.
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone using QQQ?
Replies: 7
Views: 601

Re: Anyone using QQQ?

DesertInvestor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:38 pm
Anyone using QQQ for tilting or tax lose harvesting and if so how much? Recently learned about it, not strictly bogleheads but neither is small value or other sector investing/tilting.
I use VIGAX for what I think is more or less the same purpose. (Judging by top holdings.)
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Just Do Something...Stand There!
Replies: 5
Views: 720

Re: Don't Just Do Something...Stand There!

I realize that it's anybody's guess, but during this financial crisis, I've been doing nothing and hoping for the best. The reason I'm doing nothing is that the majority of our investments are in balanced funds or target retirement funds, both index and low-cost actively managed. Overall AA is roug...
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive funds in a crisis
Replies: 11
Views: 1051

Re: Active v. passive funds in a crisis

I think the relentless rules of humble arithmetic apply in bull, bear, or sideways markets. Active managers in aggregate own (proportional to) the market, since index funds can be subtracted out without changing relative market shares (they’re cap weighted). Then the average active manager in ANY k...
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus "different"? Robo advisors weigh in.
Replies: 1
Views: 564

Re: Coronavirus "different"? Robo advisors weigh in.

Thanks for posting. I don’t have a roboadvisor, but they seem to be giving sensible advice!
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced fund vs total market with money market ?
Replies: 5
Views: 439

Re: Balanced fund vs total market with money market ?

I've been trying to decide how I would like to invest my 401k. I've been looking at returns of some of the best balanced funds like Wellington, Vanguard Balanced, Fidelity Puritan and they seem to hold their own vs the total stock market. I assume the bond portions help less the blow of the downtur...
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive funds in a crisis
Replies: 11
Views: 1051

Re: Active v. passive funds in a crisis

I had almost forgotten, it had been so long since the last crash, why I have always preferred VG's low-cost active funds over its index funds. My largest stock-only fund is VG Health Care. So I wanted to see how it has performed during this crisis against the leading index fund, TSM. YTD: Health Ca...
by theorist
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced fund vs total market with money market ?
Replies: 5
Views: 439

Re: Balanced fund vs total market with money market ?

I've been trying to decide how I would like to invest my 401k. I've been looking at returns of some of the best balanced funds like Wellington, Vanguard Balanced, Fidelity Puritan and they seem to hold their own vs the total stock market. I assume the bond portions help less the blow of the downtur...
by theorist
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4471
Views: 397378

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Market was down less than 3% today. Considering that it was a Monday, and that the Senate is still deadlocked on a relief bill, it seems like a “soaring” day to me. Just think - if the market goes up on Tuesday and Wednesday, that will be two days in a row! Hope springs eternal. One day in a row wo...
by theorist
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]
Replies: 863
Views: 78646

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

At a less lofty level: how does one efficiently invest in international small value with a mutual fund? (I try to avoid ETFs) I am not sure how tax-efficient it has been (cap-gain distributions), but Schwab's SFILX is the MF version of FNDC, my ex-US small-value fund of choice. Avantis also has a M...
by theorist
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 294
Views: 23518

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

My 401k contribution went in (all target date 2035), and I also added some Berkshire shares and a little to my T Rowe Price global stock fund. (One of my few active funds.) I’m a bit worried that I’m putting in the extra discretionary $ I earn a bit too early, and saving them up for S&P at 1700 woul...
by theorist
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes: time to buy?
Replies: 5
Views: 889

Re: Forbes: time to buy?

What is the saying, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy? Since we seem to have a balance of "should I sell my stocks" and "should I buy more stocks" I can't tell which end of the spectrum we're at. TBF I didn't disable my ad blocker to read the article. Being fearfu...