Search found 650 matches

by theorist
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK-B shares vs. VTSAX or Vanguard S and P US equities fund
Replies: 9
Views: 795

Re: BRK-B shares vs. VTSAX or Vanguard S and P US equities fund

I added to mine at $170 - 175 (on B shares) a while back :-). It is still trading at a low P/B based on its history, and I’d recommend buying in with your “fun” stock money. But it is not a replacement for the index; I’d cap it at 5-10% of holdings. I personally think it is safe post Buffett. The ra...
by theorist
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel pans value/ factor investing on the Long View podcast
Replies: 24
Views: 1906

Re: Burton Malkiel pans value/ factor investing on the Long View podcast

We could use a dialogue here on his assertions about using stocks and preferred stocks as bond substitutes. The idea may be intellectually sound but presents some problems: Are these assets part of the equity or bond allocation? For the most part these assets are too correlated to equities. I have ...
by theorist
Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FFNOX thoughts? [Fidelity® Four-in-One Index Fund]
Replies: 22
Views: 2331

Re: FFNOX thoughts?

Hi, I'm new here. I hold FFNOX in my taxable account (I realize that ETFs are more tax efficient), but I want to know if that's a decent fund. All the research I've done says that it's not a bad fund and it's pretty much a Boglehead approved portfolio all in one fund, but I worry that it might be t...
by theorist
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach
Replies: 21
Views: 1935

Re: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach

You can do a reasonable job imitating most balanced funds with a mix of index funds. Here was my first shot at getting Puritan, and I almost nailed it for CAGR (and had less volatility):

Image
by theorist
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach
Replies: 21
Views: 1935

Re: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach

What funds would you use for the three fund approach to semi-mimick the allocation of the Puritan or Balanced Fund? I have accounts at both Vanguard and Fidelity so either one's funds are fine. At Vanguard, VTSAX + VIGAX + VTIAX + VTBLX should do it. I’d combine them at 25/25/10/40 to mimic Puritan...
by theorist
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100k : Need help for investing in equity funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1663

Re: 100k : Need help for investing in equity funds

In option 2), total stock market and the S&P 500 fund are almost redundant. Total stock market overlaps the latter in about 75-80% of holdings. I am not sure why you want to tilt to healthcare. I do understand the tilt to growth, given recent performance and recency bias, though I don’t really do it...
by theorist
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach
Replies: 21
Views: 1935

Re: Fidelity Puritan or Balanced Versus Three Fund Approach

I use Fidelity Puritan for some of my IRA holdings, and use Vanguard index funds in my Vanguard taxable account. I have been happy with both. Some comments distinguishing them: — Puritan now runs about 65/35 stocks / bonds, with a strong growth tilt. About 10% of its stock holdings are international...
by theorist
Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Concentration risk over-rated?
Replies: 106
Views: 3681

Re: Concentration risk over-rated?

OP, I am not sure the definition of quality is * exactly * the same, but there is a standard “quality factor” (based on balance sheet strength, earnings growth, etc.) in the factor investing literature. There are funds which invest in e.g. subsets of large cap stocks (or small cap stocks, or ...) ba...
by theorist
Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Concentration risk over-rated?
Replies: 106
Views: 3681

Re: Concentration risk over-rated?

This is anecdotal based on a tiny sample size and so it is hard to evaluate your claim. If you either make a quantitative definition of “quality stocks” so one can test the claim systematically based on previous data, or record predictions going forward about a large number of stocks you subjectivel...
by theorist
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio review
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: portfolio review

It would be helpful to know — what is your income? — what income do you need / want from your portfolio during retirement? If you keep contributing the 27K per year that you indicate for the next 7 years (which includes some years or your retirement, but not hers), getting to 700K seems very reasona...
by theorist
Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get out of Capital Group (American Funds)
Replies: 12
Views: 1208

Re: How to get out of Capital Group (American Funds)

Wasn’t there a recent post that Swedroe demonstrated that American funds weren’t all that bad? Since I don’t invest in them, I didn’t note the thread. DMW Swedroe has discussed the relatively excellent performance of American Funds and T Rowe Price funds in some articles. Here is one link for Ameri...
by theorist
Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get out of Capital Group (American Funds)
Replies: 12
Views: 1208

Re: How to get out of Capital Group (American Funds)

Wasn’t there a recent post that Swedroe demonstrated that American funds weren’t all that bad? Since I don’t invest in them, I didn’t note the thread. DMW Swedroe has discussed the relatively excellent performance of American Funds and T Rowe Price funds in some articles. Here is one link for Ameri...
by theorist
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All VTWAX, with bonuses into small caps?
Replies: 11
Views: 564

Re: All VTWAX, with bonuses into small caps?

VTWAX replicates the FTSE global all cap index. In that sense, small caps are present at precisely the “right” weight. However tilting to small caps is something many people do (esp. small cap value). You could do a lot worse than a VTWAX portfolio with bonuses going to IJR! It seems like a good pla...
by theorist
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 200k to Invest
Replies: 18
Views: 2677

Re: 200k to Invest

If you have 200k to invest currently sitting in a checking account would you invest all at once in Vtsax Taxable account Or 10000 every week for 20 weeks Or 10000 every month for 20 months I was planning to do every month but want to check with the team. Thank you for your wisdom and advice. This s...
by theorist
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund returns in this environment
Replies: 62
Views: 4544

Re: Bond fund returns in this environment

Bonds cannot be looked at as a generalist overall asset class. Bonds, their performance as to NAV changes, SEC, taxable status and actual distribution yields vary significantly depending on the type of bond and the attendant risks it was purchased to mitigate. Treasuries, corporates, long term, sho...
by theorist
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 259

Re: Tax Exempt Funds

That sounds reasonable, assuming you’re talking about high quality tax exempt bonds in most of your list (until the last entry). The ordering of the last two seems less straightforward. High yield has higher chance of losses due to default. Long term bond funds may lose significant value if interest...
by theorist
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund returns in this environment
Replies: 62
Views: 4544

Bond fund returns in this environment

I had a naive question about what to expect from bond funds going forward. I have read a lot of bleak discussion about how returns of high quality intermediate term bonds will be low due to low interest rates. I decided to look into what previous historical periods could teach me about this. The fed...
by theorist
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Short new piece by Rekenthaler at Morningstar, arguing that concentration in the top few (tech) stocks in the S&P 500 has reached unusual proportions, seen only once before since 1985 — right before the tech bubble burst: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/992504/the-sp-500-grows-ever-more-concent...
by theorist
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep adding bonds? % AA or fixed income floor?
Replies: 30
Views: 1092

Re: Keep adding bonds? % AA or fixed income floor?

Gut reaction: I would go with A) (I’m 50 and plan to hold at about 70/30 indefinitely). But to really offer advice, I have to know what opportunities you could see the potentially faster / larger accumulation in B) offering you, that you think A) will preclude. From your situation, it seems like in ...
by theorist
Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Opinion: The hidden risk in your S&P 500 index fund“
Replies: 18
Views: 2139

Re: “Opinion: The hidden risk in your S&P 500 index fund“

Jason: At the heart of the criticism is the very concept of a cap-weighted index fund. Cap weighting is market neutral and has the lowest operating costs. An intrinsic feature of cap-weighted funds is that they hold a high percentage of the large companies in the index and a low percentage of the s...
by theorist
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early on in the process, leaving no stone unturned - Portfolio Review
Replies: 4
Views: 291

Re: Early on in the process, leaving no stone unturned - Portfolio Review

Your plan looks pretty solid. The high savings rate Is a big plus. Two things you could look into, neither necessary, but both important parts of some plans: — your portfolio is focused on US stocks. A variety of arguments — none reliable — suggest that international stocks may outperform in the mid...
by theorist
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington and Wellesley hold zero stocks in the "materials" sector?
Replies: 12
Views: 1754

Re: Wellington and Wellesley hold zero stocks in the "materials" sector?

JBTX wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:29 am
I find the allocation of Wellington vs Wellesley more interesting. I always assumed their equity was the same and just differed in bond allocation.
It does seem like Wellington is making definite strides towards growth instead of value, while Wellesley is sticking with value.
by theorist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7655
Views: 617032

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There's a potentially big difference between efficiency at the micro level (i.e. individual stocks) and the macro level (i.e. the stock market). I think the EMH crowd would prefer that time-series momentum did not exist. :happy In my opinion, markets are almost certainly not efficient. But it's als...
by theorist
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697340

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Anyone else think we'll see a modest-to-significant recovery tomorrow? It's certainly been the trend to see a moderate 2-3% correction one day, then investors pour money into stocks returning us to previous levels the next. It seems like an S&P waffling around 3000 for a while would not be surprisi...
by theorist
Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6225

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

I have an ignorant question that probably fits in this thread as well as any: I’ve been a bit confused about why “smallness” and “valueness” (or, say, market cap and P/B for definiteness) are good ways to slice the market. Clearly, at least at any given time, the sectors are differently represented ...
by theorist
Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holdings search
Replies: 2
Views: 297

Re: Holdings search

Is there a good website to do holdings searching of mutual funds? I can't find a fund that holds BIP or BIPC in its top 10. if you go to Morningstar, enter BIP in the search box, and then click the Ownership tab, you’ll get a list of funds owning BIP by sorted by amount of BIP they own. Then click ...
by theorist
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?
Replies: 71
Views: 4904

Re: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?

I forgot to mention Vanguard's own paper on this. Their most recent paper is Global equity investing: The benefits of diversification and sizing your allocation and it says this--the boldfacing and the division into two parts is mine: ...although no one answer fits all investors, global market- cap...
by theorist
Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review and Advice
Replies: 3
Views: 258

Re: Portfolio Review and Advice

Hi Everyone, I have a small business that has done well the last several years. We expect that income to decline significantly starting soon. No real plan to retire soon. When the virus hit, we had about 6 months of expenses in our emergency fund. We stopped investing new money and started building...
by theorist
Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?
Replies: 71
Views: 4904

Re: International stock exposure...is up to 40% necessary?

I’m between 33% and 42% of my equity in international in my different accounts. (Weighted average probably about 40%). I sleep very well. I’d also sleep well at 25% or 45%, but not at 0%. US economy is tremendous, but could easily go sideways for a decade. Growth of middle class consumers is in Asia...
by theorist
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2099

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Cliff Asness of AQR has written a number of amusing articles about value and its hoped for next coming. You might wa...
by theorist
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2099

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Cliff Asness of AQR has written a number of amusing articles about value and its hoped for next coming. You might wa...
by theorist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697340

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Can’t say I’m happy to see the mini collapse, but since I have extra $ sitting around due to everything fun being shut, I could buy more than my usual allotment (on top of auto invest). So I took advantage of the drop to add to small value, mid value, and international core + emerging markets holdin...
by theorist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RBD for IJS? -4% (VUG +0.1%) Not even close. IJS would have to drop -6.9% for it to be an RBD. Looking good, but please wait for it. Update: It's official at 10:34:47 Eastern. How do you decide WHEN on the RBD to purchase ETF shares? I mostly invest in mutual funds, but I do hold some IJS. Do you j...
by theorist
Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar on return forecast for US small/mid/large caps
Replies: 0
Views: 189

Morningstar on return forecast for US small/mid/large caps

From today’s Morningstar forecast for returns “during the next market cycle” of various categories of US stocks: https://i.postimg.cc/VkrBPkRv/59-B09880-1713-4-EA8-BD6-C-EF612-F1-DA680.jpg The optimism about small cap value isn’t surprising considering how beaten down it has been. The number for lar...
by theorist
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7655
Views: 617032

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:32 pm
Stef wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:48 am
Lump summed 18k today (now 40% of my invested assets), I hope that the soaring doesn't stop :mrgreen:

I admit it's getting harder for me to hit the 'buy' button lately.
Not a problem for me. Given what has been happening in the market, I’m buying bonds with new money!
by theorist
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2209

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

I've noticed most fire calculators seem to use U.S total market for calculations and or past returns, however U.S has outperformed international in the long term by quite a lot, and selecting international instead of U.S makes a very large difference in returns and final portfolio, has U.S outperfo...
by theorist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your largest single stock fund (active mgd)allocation in 401k?
Replies: 25
Views: 1412

Re: What’s your largest single stock fund (active mgd)allocation in 401k?

I’ve got 25% of my entire 401k in TRP New Horizons (PRNHX). AA is 80/20 with 10 years to go. I am trying to figure out how much higher I might go with this stellar fund. New manager has, so far, kept this fund outperforming. What’s your biggest single equity stake in your 401k? I realize many here ...
by theorist
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want to tilt scv, only option is expensive
Replies: 12
Views: 946

Re: Want to tilt scv, only option is expensive

— I’d stick with the S&P 500 fund in your 401k — when your income or saving rate allows you to max out both your 401k and Roth with some $ left over, add a taxable account. You can invest in VBR or IJS to get small cap value exposure for a few basis points. They are tax efficient. — on another subje...
by theorist
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Particularly striking is the reduction in volatility he gets by moving from small cap value to mid cap value. You seem to have found this out yourself but it is important to realize that not all small-cap funds are the same. As you noted, Vanguard's CRSP index is more like a 50/50 small/mid fund co...
by theorist
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I was just comparing the performance of my mid cap value fund (VMVAX) to my small cap value, most of which is in VSIAX. The mid cap value has been performing better than small value over a range of periods. I looked more into what Vanguard means by its cap sizes in these funds; the mid cap fund has...
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7655
Views: 617032

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

rockstar wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:33 pm
Stinky wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:04 am
rockstar wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:13 pm
To the moon.
Futures are strong.

Will we touch 3100 today?
I have no clue.

My biggest worry now is where to deploy new cash. Valuations are getting really rich.
Small cap value. IJS is still down 22% YTD.
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Burton Malkiel is my next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 10
Views: 1592

Re: Dr. Burton Malkiel is my next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Dr Malkiel: I do not understand your recommendation, in recent editions of one of your superb books, to replace some of the bond holdings with dividend focused stock funds. I understand that dividend stocks will have higher reliable yields than high quality bonds do now. However, they are still equi...
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard asks to add international bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2052

Re: Vanguard asks to add international bonds

Thanks for all of the helpful replies! While I am well invested in international funds on the equity side, I think I’ll just stick with US bonds then (except in my target date fund, which holds whatever Vanguard wants it to).
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard asks to add international bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2052

Vanguard asks to add international bonds

Hello, My Vanguard account is warning me that I should “consider adding foreign currency hedged international bonds” as 20-50% of my bond allocation. — Does this seem like good advice? I thought interest rates in developed markets are even worse than here, and EM bonds pose their own dangers in term...
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Assett Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1246

Re: Changing Assett Allocation

Following the ideas behind the boglehead strategy — maximal diversification, indexing, no one can predict the future — as opposed to folksy sayings or personalities, might lead one to just use VTWAX, or at least stay close to world market cap. That said, 70/30 or 60/40 us/int (or even 80/20, though...
by theorist
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Assett Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1246

Re: Changing Assett Allocation

Following the ideas behind the boglehead strategy — maximal diversification, indexing, no one can predict the future — as opposed to folksy sayings or personalities, might lead one to just use VTWAX, or at least stay close to world market cap. That said, 70/30 or 60/40 us/int (or even 80/20, though ...
by theorist
Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I was just comparing the performance of my mid cap value fund (VMVAX) to my small cap value, most of which is in VSIAX. The mid cap value has been performing better than small value over a range of periods. I looked more into what Vanguard means by its cap sizes in these funds; the mid cap fund has...
by theorist
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar on active vs passive
Replies: 9
Views: 963

Re: Morningstar on active vs passive: On the other hand ...

This recent article makes a different case. - https://www.barrons.com/articles/active-stock-picking-strategies-gain-appeal-as-markets-fluctuate-51590192074 According to this article: - Volatile markets have lots of inefficiencies that only active managers can exploit. - The indexes have assets you ...
by theorist
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2054
Views: 162477

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I was just comparing the performance of my mid cap value fund (VMVAX) to my small cap value, most of which is in VSIAX. The mid cap value has been performing better than small value over a range of periods. I looked more into what Vanguard means by its cap sizes in these funds; the mid cap fund has ...
by theorist
Sun May 31, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after maxing 401k and emergency fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 2544

Re: What to do after maxing 401k and emergency fund?

— you can make individual IRA contributions for yourself and your spouse? At your age, maybe that is 6K each? — you can open a taxable brokerage account at e.g. Vanguard (I’ve done this). If you invest in muni bonds (or low yield taxable bonds — low yields are easy to find now! 🙂) and low turnover i...