Search found 63 matches

by effigy98
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Small allocation to VXX buffered the carnage today.
by effigy98
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

My two tax sheltered portfolios right now are:

ROTH
25 AAAU
28 UPRO
28 TMF
10 VXX
6 GBTC
3 CASH (Emergency fund)

401K
60 NTSX
8 TMF
24 PHYS
8 VXX

The ROTH is 1/4 of the value of the 401k as backdoor option was not available when I started the 401k. I now invest the max 57k between the two.
by effigy98
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

VXX does work and what I am using, but you treat it like your home owners or car insurance... ya it looses value, but it is there to take on the jolts... and a little bit goes a very long way. With the massive uncertainty of the market in the coming months and the high CAPE, I am a bit overweight in...
by effigy98
Thu May 28, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Really happy with adding a small 5% of TVIX to this strategy. Feels like the missing piece to guard against the world is ending crashes like in March and was my biggest hangup of this strategy. Bigern also covered this on his blog which has some more data on this strategy. In a way, it feels like we...
by effigy98
Thu May 28, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 168
Views: 18597

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

I think you are better off with NTSX in a more diversified portfolio. Low max drawdown and much higher gains. The fed seems to like supporting this portfolio as well and I appreciate them making us rich so we don't have to do real work.

Something like:
65 NTSX
20 PHYS
5 TVIX
10 TMF
by effigy98
Thu May 28, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 12346

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Just put 100% of your money in the market and you will get backstopped by the fed. Seems like a win win situation except for those fools that think the economy should be fair and just.
by effigy98
Mon May 25, 2020 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5393

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Unemployement will have to hit 90% before the market will dip. V shaped recovery right after when unemployment drops to only 87%.
by effigy98
Sat May 16, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 310
Views: 17884

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Bitcoin is still more annoying to buy then gold and gold is already a pain to buy. You have to upload your driver licence, confirm emails, confirm everything, wait... wait... wait. I just did a small $20 transaction on two different platoforms just to see where the state of buying BTC is and I will ...
by effigy98
Tue May 12, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

TVIX looks a bit better, allocate only 5% and it helps a lot with the sharp down days.
by effigy98
Sun May 10, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3076

Dragon Portfolio

The returns of this thing historically are even better then my other favorite portfolios but I am not sure how to set it up more passively. How do you set this up with ETFS? Is there a good fund for trend commodities? https://taylorpearson.me/thedragon/ My guess so far... Gold: PHYS, AAAU, SGOL, etc...
by effigy98
Sun May 10, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13860

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

I could see a major scale down of commercial real estate after this. People are learning how to be remote and the advantages of it. Even in the tech world, management was resistant to working from home and it was seen as a negative thing. I think after this it will be seen as more normal. Everyone I...
by effigy98
Sat May 09, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 7994

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

NTSX is almost perfect to improve returns of the Golden Butterfly type portfolio. I feel fortunate that there are products like this available with low fees and easier to manage then futures.
by effigy98
Wed May 06, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 223
Views: 13918

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Every stock is now the FED until the election is over. I think all stocks are good stocks with taxpayer money buying them indirectly. You are buying DIS even if you don't want it.
by effigy98
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How about we sprinkle some TVIX in here?

55% UPRO
40% TMF
5% TVIX
by effigy98
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15202

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

I love long term treasuries but I do not trust the dollar here. I am looking forward to buying cheap real assets if deflation really does happen in a significant way, but I have not seen that yet as prices seem to even be going up in my market for Real Estate, Land, etc. The stock market looks like ...
by effigy98
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 17255

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I'm done with SCV. It is not favored in this political climate. Monopolies will keep producing the bulk of share gains and those tend to be well connected companies, not small cap value. Fundamentals are not as relevant in this environment and until they are, staying away from SCV.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?
Replies: 19
Views: 1137

Re: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?

I'm out of EDV when it bumped to even today. Just not worth the stress. If I want to get a little return just going to go with options on these seesaws with a tiny bit of money and/or use covered calls on my TLT position which is paying pretty well on these up and down days. I love you vanguard but ...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JP Morgan Chase predicts 6.25% unemployment this year
Replies: 7
Views: 507

Re: JP Morgan Chase predicts 6.25% unemployment this year

Seems like a low estimate to me. Whole cities are hanging on by a thread. No small business wants to get into even more debt just to retain employees because there is no certainty that this is only going to last a couple months. Most are just closing and laying off. The small business loans are just...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus
Replies: 78
Views: 3041

Re: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus

Move to Seattle, new law lets you stop paying rent. I would hate to own real estate in Seattle right now.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?
Replies: 19
Views: 1137

Re: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?

People are willing to sell the ETF for less than the valuation of its underlying assets because they need to generate cash immediately. When things settle down this should eventually go away. It’s bad timing if you are looking to rebalance however. Totally logical but I kind of find it difficult to...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?
Replies: 19
Views: 1137

Re: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?

8:01am: TLT up 1.44%, VGLT down 0.73%. The spread was even more few minutes ago. Not apples to apples, but EDV (down 1.25%) is down too, should be up more then TLT usually. I don't know what to do in the situation. Do I switch to the more "stable" funds that have a higher cost basis or just wait it ...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?
Replies: 19
Views: 1137

Re: Why is VTEB (Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond) getting hammered?

The same thing is happening to TLT and VGLT.
by effigy98
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 2604

Re: 100% bonds

A month ago this would’ve been lucky. Today it would be a reckless strategy, even if it be and lucky once again. I don't know if I would consider it "luck". MacroVoices and MacroVision was reporting on this in JAN and said there was real risk involved. On top of that there was the CAPE going parabo...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”
Replies: 169
Views: 14573

Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

Not rejoicing, but defiantly content as I moved to a defensive portfolio when CAPE was too high and SMA 180 hit. The only positive thing I see is my CAPE adjusted SWR rate finally went over 4% (haven't seen that for several years) again so my spreadsheet lit up green like a Christmas tree to tell me...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"
Replies: 44
Views: 3871

Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market. They can't buy stocks unless their charter is changed. A charter change does not seem out of the realm of possibilities with how desperate political interests are in keeping the market proppe...
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"
Replies: 44
Views: 3871

Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:35 am Cash is king.
True! And you can use that cash as Toilet paper and heat your bunker with it. I think I saw some where that $1 is worth less then one sheet of TP right now lol.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 26964

Re: The end of cruise ships

harvestbook wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:26 am I'm not being facetious when I say they may become hospital ships.
Good point, they make great hospitals, mobile, and under utilized.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 26964

Re: The end of cruise ships

I bet we don't have government bail outs for cruise lines, but I could see them doing this for airlines and a few energy companies. I have some very low limit orders just in case I can get some decent deals to play this bet.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"
Replies: 44
Views: 3871

Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

Fed going to buy stocks. Can they buy enough? Another thing we might see is they just shut down the market.
by effigy98
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"
Replies: 44
Views: 3871

Re: The "everything rally" is turning into the "everything crash"

In this environment I use gold, treasuries, and a little SQQQ just in case the gold and treasuries do not help enough. This is turning into a gain. Puts can do the same on something like HYG and probably even safer and more profitable once I go thru the fidelity gauntlet to get those enabled.
by effigy98
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 139565

Re: Coronavirus; How has your Life changed?

Work for big tech. Have not left house since sent home early last week. Told to stay home for a month. Lots of fear around here and disruption. Schools closed, streets empty, events cancelled. Kind of like house arrest.
by effigy98
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3208
Views: 552817

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My YTD for all portfolios: +12% hedgefundie like portfolio: However, I got out of URPO and switched TMF to EDV at 180 day moving average due to research like https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928. +8.4% Golden Butterfly li...
by effigy98
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market down over 6% today
Replies: 56
Views: 6061

Re: Market down over 6% today

ummm, I had 70% of portfolio in VGSH and woke up to my check the portfolio routine. This is crazy. 0.36% gain? I saw the 22% gain too for a fleeting moment. Perhaps a fidelity data issue or someone just made a bad choice of their buying price Was $76 and over 22% gain in a single day. Impossible? M...
by effigy98
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market down over 6% today
Replies: 56
Views: 6061

Re: Market down over 6% today

ummm, I had 70% of portfolio in VGSH and woke up to my check the portfolio routine. This is crazy.
by effigy98
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Replies: 129
Views: 9299

Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

I think people are going to be even more irrational this time vs GFC as the problem is closer to their home. In the Seattle area, half the workers were sent home (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, etc) and the streets are half empty. There is a lot of fear right now. As this sweeps across the country it will just g...
by effigy98
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Woke up to find 16% gain on TMF. The new momentum trade?
by effigy98
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)
Replies: 101
Views: 7721

Re: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)

Gold, long bonds, rentals (if you can find a good deal), maybe a tiny bit of bitcoin. Anything that can make you self sufficient, micro-green gardens, improved health from exercise, side hustle job skills, etc. I have a feeling subsidies are going to increase for low income which do not all have ass...
by effigy98
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4020
Views: 312190

Re: Coronavirus and the market

columbia wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:41 pm The US won’t enact martial law lockdown tactics and, as such, it’s reasonable to conclude that a higher rate of the US populace will get it (compared to China).
Uh, we just had an official in WA mention matial law is a possibility.
by effigy98
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4020
Views: 312190

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Better then puts? Go look at masks on Amazon. Massive price gouging.
by effigy98
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Getting wrecked. Make the pain stop! TMF and Gold, why are you not saving me today?
by effigy98
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FOMO - TESLA
Replies: 36
Views: 3126

Re: FOMO - TESLA

Maybe diversify into ARK funds (https://ark-funds.com/) if you suffer from FOMO and let someone else do the trades more systematically.
by effigy98
Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 227
Views: 17815

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

Inspired by golden butterfly 42 NTSX 20 SMMV 20 GLDM 18 EDV The portfolio that I built is 41 NTSX 25 VXUS 24 EDV 10 GLDM Portfolio visualizer shows the return behavior as very similar. Both of these seem to miss the point of how and why the GB is built the way it is and aren't playing the "4 econom...
by effigy98
Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 227
Views: 17815

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

Inspired by golden butterfly 42 NTSX 20 SMMV 20 GLDM 18 EDV The portfolio that I built is 41 NTSX 25 VXUS 24 EDV 10 GLDM Portfolio visualizer shows the return behavior as very similar. Both of these seem to miss the point of how and why the GB is built the way it is and aren't playing the "4 econom...
by effigy98
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in gold via ETF or ETN?
Replies: 12
Views: 892

Re: Better to invest in gold via ETF or ETN?

ETNs are debt that can be defaulted. I would stay away.
by effigy98
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 227
Views: 17815

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

Inspired by golden butterfly

42 NTSX
20 SMMV
20 GLDM
18 EDV
by effigy98
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6599
Views: 624436

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thank you Hedgefundie, this is the biggest innovation to my portfolios since I learned about the golden butterfly years ago. I cannot fully commit and keeping a few extra uncorrelated assets. Little over 50% gain this year. UPRO: 40% GBTC: 5% AAAU: 20% TMF: 33% SHY: 2% GBTC, wild. I like it. Why th...