Search found 127 matches

by pseudoiterative
Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put "mad money"?
Replies: 31
Views: 2049

Re: Where to put "mad money"?

Credit this to the regret of not investing in the Teslas of the world, or just simple intellectual curiosity. But I was wondering, if it's financially feasible and totally reasonable given your financial status, where would you, in today's market, invest a very small amount of your assets ("ma...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short Tesla?
Replies: 63
Views: 3242

Re: For those wanting to short Tesla

https://apple.news/AE3_hkRu1Sxe-bajYbqtLsg thank you for sharing! Separately from Tesla (which I don't believe is a fraud) Chanos talks a bit about financial fraud. One point that Chanos has made in interviews is that the financial fraud cycle lags the financial cycle: during a long period of finan...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what’s a realistic salary for an IT specialist?
Replies: 22
Views: 2189

Re: what’s a realistic salary for an IT specialist?

For another data point, I reckon similar take-home pay is achievable in a permanent role for your specialty in one of Australia's major cities. Although there's the downside that you'd probably have to work at a bank. There would be very little room to increase salary any further without transitioni...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short Tesla?
Replies: 63
Views: 3242

Re: Short Tesla?

even people like Jim Chanos have said there are much more compelling short opportunities than TSLA right now I recently listened to Chanos interviewed on this old 2017 Financial Times alphachat podcast . A few moments I found interesting: Chanos described the basic mechanics of how short selling wo...
by pseudoiterative
Thu Dec 03, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MY wild crazy Coronavirus Relief for Retirement Plans and IRAs
Replies: 16
Views: 1848

Re: MY wild crazy Coronavirus Relief for Retirement Plans and IRAs

The main point of potential concern that jumps out at me is your family's expenses, and figuring out a budget for all expenses that fits with the new level of income. There are likely quite a few lifestyle and habit changes that need to happen to fit with the new lower-income situation, it's good th...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla addition: check my back-of-the-envelope math on magnitude
Replies: 12
Views: 1333

Re: Tesla addition: check my back-of-the-envelope math on magnitude

sellers must be found by price offered. There's no backup plan. The total amount of market cap is not relevant. If I own a share, I can decide the price that I'll take to sell. If somebody buys, then somebody has to sell. They only sell if they want the money. I try to avoid exposure to risks that ...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla addition: check my back-of-the-envelope math on magnitude
Replies: 12
Views: 1333

Re: Tesla addition: check my back-of-the-envelope math on magnitude

Assuming that no one else knows about this and so not already priced in, the price would have to rise to whatever price it takes to get 6% current owners to sell or Tesla to issue 6% more stock (or some combination of the two totaling 6%). Let's assume Tesla won't issue more stock, so the focus in ...
by pseudoiterative
Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Etiquette Question: Job offer while in middle of other interviews
Replies: 31
Views: 2598

Re: Etiquette Question: Job offer while in middle of other interviews

I don't think there's much point in delaying responding promptly if no firm job contract has been locked in. Reply promptly. From the other side of the interview table: large companies will interview hundreds of applicants, and some companies that are very attractive places to work will only make a ...
by pseudoiterative
Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Seeking input on Australian portfolio construction
Replies: 5
Views: 691

Re: [Australia] Seeking input on Australian portfolio construction

In addition to currency risk, there's also a benefit to diversifying your investments and your income from your job, particularly to minimise risks that could negatively impact both your investments and your job at once. The most extreme form of this could be holding an investment portfolio that onl...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 178
Views: 9807

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

OK, i've had a go at following my own suggested experimental protocol as a crude way to estimate if a CAPE-based regression approach has much power at forecasting 10-year total market returns. Results: I tried two different linear regression approaches (vanilla and using a logarithmic transform) and...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 178
Views: 9807

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

I should have made it clearer that the purpose of the OP was not to compare the statistics of the regression model I ran with those of Shiller's from back in 1988. Rather, the purpose was merely to demonstrate that since Shiller put CAPE forward, it has been even more strongly related to forward st...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 178
Views: 9807

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

this analysis indicates that the relationship between CAPE and forward stock returns has been better explained via a regression formula (i.e. Y = a + bX) than the commonly used 1/CAPE. Using the above data (i.e. since 1989), the regression formula is as follows: .2111 + (-.00579*CAPE). If the goal ...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to buy Tesla?
Replies: 71
Views: 10388

Re: Time to buy Tesla?

The higher the PE the more potential for future earnings. Releasing your potential is a very very dangerous idea. You should stay away from your potential. That is something that you should leave absolutely alone. Don't d-- You'll mess it up! Leave it! And anyway it's like your bank balance, you al...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3265
Views: 559956

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

as a physician that I wonder whether people realize the miracle of this covid vaccine timeline. This rivals the space race to me. An mrna vaccine had never been made in humans before and typically a vaccine takes 5 years or so to make. It also was a real possibility that the vaccine wouldn’t work. ...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Side Gig in Software Development
Replies: 6
Views: 560

Re: Retirement Side Gig in Software Development

It might be worth considering how the software would be delivered, and how that would fit with your business model: the oldschool way -- a package that is installed on the client's desktops / servers SaaS mobile phone app sold through app store plugin to some other existing software platform SaaS ha...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?
Replies: 139
Views: 10744

Re: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?

Here's something to chuckle over: VCSH (16%) VNQ + VNQI (2%) RSXJ + EWO + ENOR + VESG (6%) 74 hand-picked individual stocks (77%), of which - individual AUD stocks 5% - individual CAD stocks 5% - individual CNH stocks 1% - individual EUR stocks 14% - individual GBP stocks 4% - individual HKD stocks ...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares
Replies: 159
Views: 13087

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

So, yes, there is some risk that the EV is a bubble. But on the other hand, there is demand, there is growth, and nobody really knows which company will survive and dominate the others. Will Tesla be what Apple was with smartphones? Yes, I think so. Can you know for sure? No, that's the risk of inv...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shooting for the moon as a young investor
Replies: 33
Views: 4620

Re: Shooting for the moon as a young investor

As a young person with lots of earning potential and time ahead of you, the biggest payoffs involve what you do with your career, not with your wealth. I work in software. So here are some options that an ambitious young person may consider in the wonderful world of software: start your own startup ...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:28 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Aussie Superannuation Ques
Replies: 5
Views: 604

Re: Aussie Superannuation Ques

There's some good advice upthread. It is a good idea to have an allocation that you're comfortable with, where you won't feel a need to panic and e.g. sell stocks at depressed prices after a stock market crash. You may also wish to consider changing super funds to a different fund that offers equiva...
by pseudoiterative
Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Look at current PE 10-actionable?
Replies: 78
Views: 4150

Re: Look at current PE 10-actionable?

In addition to CAPE, another fun indicator that may have some forward-looking predictive ability of long-term stock market returns is the metric of "What is the stock allocation of the average US investor?". Here's a mechanical supply-and-demand argument of why we might expect this relatio...
by pseudoiterative
Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Look at current PE 10-actionable?
Replies: 78
Views: 4150

Re: Look at current PE 10-actionable?

it's totally actionable. If you believe higher CAPE has some predictive ability of lower long-term investment returns, then you have the option of reallocating into markets that have a lower CAPE. The US stock market is bigger than the S&P500, and the total world stock market is bigger than the ...
by pseudoiterative
Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I just bought a Peloton - Love it!
Replies: 92
Views: 7789

Re: I just bought a Peloton - Love it!

Tangent, regarding Peloton the public company: fun to see a few people are combining cheaper models from other manufacturers (schwinn / wahoo kickr core) - some with the pelaton app, others with competing subscription services (zwift!). Also interesting to note some people have signed up to peloton'...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you define "asset", "investment", and "speculation"?
Replies: 62
Views: 3036

Re: How do you define "asset", "investment", and "speculation"?

When i think of "investment" vs "speculation", i think of of this Ben Graham quote: An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative. ― Benjamin Graham, The...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Stock Rights Issue - Can US Investors Participate?
Replies: 11
Views: 1019

Re: Foreign Stock Rights Issue - Can US Investors Participate?

There are in general three options for a stockholder when a corporation has a rights issue. 1. Subscribe fully to the rights issue, pay in cash (which is the company intention) while maintaining a proportionate share of the equity. 2. Sell the rights. This effectively leads to a part-disposal of on...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares
Replies: 159
Views: 13087

Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

It would be very interesting to see TESLA performance when interest rates go back to normal. I think in-directly you are betting on interest rates staying down OP by buying growth stocks like this as high P/E multiples like 50 equals to 2% earnings yield If you reckon 50 is a high P/E multiple for ...
by pseudoiterative
Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unit puts for hedging: is there anyway to predict returns for unpredictable greeks?
Replies: 7
Views: 353

Re: Unit puts for hedging: is there anyway to predict returns for unpredictable greeks?

The bogleheads forums generally focus on low-cost, simple, long term passive indexed investment approaches to investing, so you may not get many responses that attempt to genuinely engage with your question. You may get a bit of engagement from the perspective of portfolio construction. If you are l...
by pseudoiterative
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 165
Views: 12171

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

A number of these mistakes that look back with regret on selling stocks may not be genuine silly mistakes: they're focusing on the single realised outcome of what actually happened, ignoring the risks of all the other potential investment outcomes that could have happened but didn't. Maybe if you di...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I reduce my annual expenses: Budget help
Replies: 132
Views: 8878

Re: How can I reduce my annual expenses: Budget help

1) Change of mindset - if a problem or need comes up, instead of instantly solving it with money, think of a way to get what you need without spending. 2) Delay. Not every problem has to be solved right now, and not every need is immediate. 3) Don't let expectations of other people run your finance...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I reduce my annual expenses: Budget help
Replies: 132
Views: 8878

Re: How can I reduce my annual expenses: Budget help

one idea the worked for me, but may not make sense for everyone: sometimes a single "move" can help improve multiple factors at once: if you lease a car in order to commute to work, what would happen if you moved to a different place to live that was closer to work, so you could walk/bike,...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian Superannuation Funds with Index Investing: Costs and Choice
Replies: 26
Views: 3529

Re: Australian Superannuation Funds with Index Investing: Costs and Choice

Additionally, related to ESG style index investment offerings, you may wish to add Vision Super's sustainable balanced option. I reckon the vision super sustainable balanced option is worth a look for anyone interested in a low-carbon tilted portfolio, adopting a passive investment approach, with l...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 165
Views: 12171

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

One of my first investments was in a Vanguard fund for Australian property. I chose it because it had gotten high returns in the previous few years, and also because in Australia we're generally obsessed with real estate. I invested through a vanguard managed fund paying additional fees instead of a...
by pseudoiterative
Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you roll your own financial analysis tools, what do you use?
Replies: 56
Views: 3472

Re: If you roll your own financial analysis tools, what do you use?

Spreadsheets and python scripts. Sometimes thinking + pen & paper. The weirdest thing I've tried to monte-carlo estimate recently is calculating the net present value of remaining life! E.g. suppose we highly value any year where we don't need to work -- assign it a "utility" value of ...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio
Replies: 95
Views: 3591

Re: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio

TSLA actually isn’t a good choice if someone wants to actually be “green”. Look into how much fossil fuel is consumed in mining and processing all of the inorganics that go into their batteries. I'll gently disagree: the goal isn't investing in something that has zero absolute environmental impact,...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio
Replies: 95
Views: 3591

Re: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio

if anything, being a shareholder you have more of a voice in how the company does its business (of course an individual's sway is quite limited). This is a good point. If your goal is changing the behaviour of companies to push them in a direction you deem "positive", then it is not obvio...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio
Replies: 95
Views: 3591

Re: Need advice for building a 100% fossil-fuel stock free portfolio

Surely, there's some middleground between the bogleheads approach and just buying individual stocks? Yes, there is. If you prefer simple index-based investment approaches that don't require you to pick individual stocks, one option is to find a stock market index that has an environmental or low-ca...
by pseudoiterative
Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pandemic reduced our spending by 30% - How about you?
Replies: 118
Views: 7727

Re: Pandemic reduced our spending by 30% - How about you?

I switched to working from home in late march. There were some small pandemic related expenses at the start of the period (a couple of hundred bucks getting a better desk for the home office) but apart from that my monthly spend while working from home during 8 months of partial/complete lockdown is...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your percentage of debt to NW?
Replies: 139
Views: 7429

Re: What is your percentage of debt to NW?

0% debt since paying off student loans 4 years ago. I rent and don't own my own business that could potentially increase profits by employing borrowed capital. I live in a country which had massive increases in housing prices during the last couple of decades, and live in a city where rental returns...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler
Replies: 58
Views: 4270

Re: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler

I think what we have is a lazy loose association of ideas. 1) Tesla will collapse because Elon Musk is arrogant, or because Tesla isn't making reliable cars, or whatever. 2) Tesla is a tech company. 3) Therefore all tech companies will collapse. 4) There are a lot of tech companies in the stock mar...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler
Replies: 58
Views: 4270

Re: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler

Tesla may be a reasonable company, but the TSLA shares are at least 10x over-priced relative to their fundamental value (see Prof. Damodaran's Tesla valuation scenarios from earlier this year ). Even if you believe that Tesla will somehow turn into a never-before-observed business chimera with the b...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Playing catch up
Replies: 22
Views: 1732

Re: Playing catch up

I'm not impressed with the expense ratios on those "american funds" ANCFX 0.62% expense ratio, holding 80% US equities NEWFX 1.03% expense ratio, emerging markets exposure. 45% domiciled in emerging markets, 25% in US, ... ANWPX 0.76% expense ratio, holding 54% US equities & a bunch of...
by pseudoiterative
Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22751

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Jim Chanos interview - re: Tesla [youtube] paraphrasing... We're still short. Poster child for this bull market. This is the stock on which TAM [total addressable market] investors, retail investors, algorithm investors, everybody is putting their hopes and dreams on this one company. Its not just ...
by pseudoiterative
Sat Nov 14, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4331

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Let's do an incredibly crude analysis of Palantir without any understanding of how the company's business actually works. We're going to estimate when Palantir will start generating a positive operating income. Let's ignore net income and focus on the simpler task of putting together a basic model o...
by pseudoiterative
Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 1324
Views: 175066

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

It's easy to talk about "how much", since that's kind of a simple metric that's easy to compare, but arguably investment assets are just fuel to get us where we want to go. It's probably more interesting -- and a lot harder to compare -- to talk about what we'd each use that fuel for. What...
by pseudoiterative
Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your after tax monthly income do you invest?
Replies: 28
Views: 1926

Re: What % of your after tax monthly income do you invest?

I am wondering if there is a benchmark for what % is on the aggressive end of the spectrum vs. conservative. If you want benchmarks, one thing to compare against are the OECD net household savings statistics , which show net average household savings rates per country per year, as a percentage of h...
by pseudoiterative
Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % allocation in bitcoin
Replies: 204
Views: 11230

Re: % allocation in bitcoin

The problem is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value and has no cash flow. The same critique can be made of fiat money: fiat money is only worth something to me because I believe other people believe it is worth something. Fiat money is non-productive, generating no economic returns, and similarly ha...
by pseudoiterative
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % allocation in bitcoin
Replies: 204
Views: 11230

Re: % allocation in bitcoin

The problem is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value and has no cash flow. The same critique can be made of fiat money: fiat money is only worth something to me because I believe other people believe it is worth something. Fiat money is non-productive, generating no economic returns, and similarly ha...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New physician - pay off loans early or buy a house?
Replies: 32
Views: 2957

Re: New physician - pay off loans early or buy a house?

Here's another way to think about it: you're young and unattached, who know what the next few years will bring. It is quite likely that in a couple of years you will want something different to what you want today. Focus on making "moves" that increase the space of options available to fut...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: improving the 4% rule and solving the starting point paradox
Replies: 71
Views: 8417

Re: improving the 4% rule and solving the starting point paradox

Interesting contribution and article. I found the worked examples early in the article helpful in driving home the point that the standard "4% rule" seems to be ill-defined, in that it can produce a wildly different withdrawal policy based upon things that should not be relevant (the histo...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 380
Views: 31260

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

The polls for this election were quite off base. Nate Silver's model, based on these polls, was hardly a resounding success. The presidential election ended up going the way of the pollsters/wonks, but it was much closer than they expected. If one takes the presidential/senate/house races together,...
by pseudoiterative
Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 380
Views: 31260

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Let's bet on...wall street not liking the current outcome. For any large investors who care enough about the political outcome to afford to retain a statistician or data-literate political wonk on staff, this outcome has been pretty clear since thursday evening or earlier , before the US markets op...