Search found 52 matches

by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Investor’s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never “Due” for Anything
Replies: 47
Views: 2807

Re: The Investor’s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never “Due” for Anything

I read the article and at the risk of my possibly misinterpreting the data, I'll offer an opinion. First, as others have stated, and for many reasons, I too do not believe that the future direction of the market can be compared to a coin flip. The author as much as admits that when he describes mark...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 107
Views: 5564

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

We hold 1/3 of equities in int’l. It is a middle ground between all the market weight folks and the US is best folks. I won’t have the winning combo, but I will participate in the winning allocation either way. 1/3 might be a reasonable choice, but to me choosing the middle between a nearly-market ...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 107
Views: 5564

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

. . . I've avoided China specifically because I'm not convinced their "rule of law" (SEC) follows the US and other developed security exchanges. That said, I've been a US only (except for about 1%) investor for the past 30+ years... and, I can't say that I have much to complain about. HOWEVER, I'm ...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?
Replies: 107
Views: 5564

Re: How much to hold in international equities (VTIAX)?

One reason I have no international is that I suspect the percentage of corruption is greater in ex-US than in US; particularly China. Whether this is a valid concern is debatable. I also suspect, but don't know for sure, that the greater the corruption, the more diminished the total return on stock...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity zero expense funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1171

Re: Fidelity zero expense funds

Thanks for the replies. I was mostly doing a 'gut check' to make sure I wasn't missing something obvious.
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity zero expense funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1171

Fidelity zero expense funds

Hello, I have our IRAs and Roths with Fidelity. In my attempt to move towards a more simplified - and Boglehead style - portfolio, I've been slowly, but surely, selling much of our single stock and sector ETFs holdings and purchasing VOO and VTI. I realize the expense ratio is pretty small for the a...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?

VGT doesn't go back that far, but XLK, SPDR's tech sector fund, goes back to Dec 1998. How has it performed compared to the total stock market? See https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&init...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?

How much of your investments are in those two ETFs? Are they in taxable or tax sheltered accounts? To put it simply, if you are already retired and have good balance in all your accounts, no need to take additional risk, since you are not 20 years old. It will impact you badly if things don't turn ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Re: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?

morningstar only has vgt starting 1/26/2004 so can't look before that. Found this: https://i.postimg.cc/dtcRNQ0L/Capture.jpg tbe green line is your beloved sector tilt. looks like it underperformed the market for 2 1/2 years (not sure if it met your CAGR criteria for underperforming though). source...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 805

Has there been a time when VTI has outperformed these two sectors?

I'm a fairly recent BH convert - maybe, it's better said that I'm still moving in that direction. I recently retired (@59) a couple of years ago. My equity investments used to be a collection of individual stocks and a smattering of ETFs and mutual funds. Over the past several years, I've moved away...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 23, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic v. International Megathread
Replies: 64
Views: 3761

Re: Domestic v. International Megathread

I am bored at work and decided to do a little analysis. I fully believe that this information is largely meaningless for most people and will not encourage anybody to change their U.S./ex-U.S. equity allocation. Using portfolio visualizer, from January 1986 through November 2019, nearly 34 years of...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite stock(s) and why
Replies: 131
Views: 7689

Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Thanks all, especially those who responded with something other than VTSAX, etc. AAPL and MSFT are on the short list. Will look into the others. I think you could certainly do worse... Besides AAPL mentioned above, I also own a pretty big slice of XAR (aerospace and defense) and VGT (IT technology)...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite stock(s) and why
Replies: 131
Views: 7689

Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

AAPL because it has turned each $1.00 I spent then into $3.31 now, and it doesn't seem to be done. TNWoods +1 I don't own many individual stocks any more, but, I bought 50 shares of AAPL years ago (before the last split) and it's done pretty well and it pays a small dividend too. Primary drivers fo...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Afraid to take the leap
Replies: 48
Views: 6306

Re: Afraid to take the leap

Update: It took me a whole month to really get confident with investing. I was convinced, but still wanted to wait for a correction (yes I'm that stupid lol). Today I put 13.5k in the market, now invested with 14.5k in total and 2k sitting in cash (to be invested). I was just sick of the waiting, I...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession
Replies: 118
Views: 10110

Re: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession

invest in something like Vanguard500index fund at a good buying price. This reminds me of a line Richard Dreyfus used in the movie "Tin Men". It was about aluminum siding salesmen in the 1950s who were very image conscious, so they all drove Cadillac automobiles. Dreyfus is at the car dealer, and a...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recovering from bad advice from advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2821

Re: Should I sell my dreadful energy fund at a bad loss?

Thanks for the insights. Silk, Guilty as charged...my first post back in October I now view as a bit rambling and I have come to terms with the emerging markets regrets, so I simply wanted to make a shorter one about energy. 75% of the energy is in taxable. Its funny, I'd say about 60% of the peopl...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell VGHAX Vanguard Health Care Fund Admiral?
Replies: 44
Views: 3115

Re: Sell VGHAX Vanguard Health Care Fund Admiral?

I am a pretty passive investor. I look at the specifics for my investments a couple times a year. I have my strategy and I stick with it. And when I do look generally it is the 5 year rate of return. IMO one year is to volatile So I was checking today and my Vanguard Health Care Admiral 5 year rate...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9745

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

I want to be invested in China... At least someone does. While Hong Kong is no stranger to sudden stock slumps, the fresh wave of declines is once again putting the spotlight on corporate governance at the city’s listed companies. One oft-cited catalyst for the outsized swings is forced selling by ...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which funds do YOU have in your taxable account?
Replies: 81
Views: 6920

Re: Which funds do YOU have in your taxable account?

I've only (recently) had a taxable account for the past 8-9 years. I used to hold individual stocks in it.... Walmart...Apple...Clorox...ATT....Starbucks...Exxon About 4 years ago, I sold the individual stocks and switched over to two ETFs... VGT (information technology) and XAR (aerospace and defe...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which funds do YOU have in your taxable account?
Replies: 81
Views: 6920

Re: Which funds do YOU have in your taxable account?

I've only (recently) had a taxable account for the past 8-9 years. I used to hold individual stocks in it.... Walmart...Apple...Clorox...ATT....Starbucks...Exxon About 4 years ago, I sold the individual stocks and switched over to two ETFs... VGT (information technology) and XAR (aerospace and defen...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering [investing in international market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: Considering [investing in international market]

0) Fifteen years ago I invested 20% of my stocks internationally, around 2010 I boosted it to 25%, I have no coherent rationale for either number, but you asked what people did. Incidentally, it annoys the heck out of me that fifteen years ago I once accidentally let it drift up to 20.5% and Vangua...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering [investing in international market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: Considering [investing in international market]

I do 30% of equities. The whole idea that U.S. companies have international exposure is true. However, international companies also have U.S. exposure. The conclusion, then, shouldn't be that it's a global market and therefore you don't need international. The conclusion should be that it's a globa...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering [investing in international market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: Considering [investing in international market]

Hi OP. If you were to increase your international stake (and five percent of equity is just barely going to make any difference), why would you be doing it? To reliably increase return? It wouldn't do that, any more than avoiding international would. The US stock market has a lot of types of compan...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering [investing in international market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Re: Considering dipping my toe...

Not everyone follows this. I believe that part of the logic can be wrapped up in: Can you name a large cap company with no international business? Well, can you? Probably not. I work for a US company with US headquarters and lots of US engineers. Some products are touched by foreign factories. Half...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6560

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

And there have been others, like Bill Miller, Ken Heebner, Bruce Berkowitz, and Neil Woodford, who have not. They have all been put forward as absolute proof of skill, and the ability to beat the market for extended periods of time. Then their funds collapsed. While such people are put forward as p...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering [investing in international market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1088

Considering [investing in international market]

Hello, I've recently read a few interviews of Jack Bogle - and my takeaway impression is that he wasn't a HUGE fan of having international stock exposure. If I understood the interview correctly, Bogle seems to imply that if one must invest internationally, one should stick to no more than 20%. I ta...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet says NOT to diversify?
Replies: 37
Views: 5086

Re: Warren Buffet says NOT to diversify?

To me, this is a great example of the danger of sound bites. +1M. Hard to look back upon the loooooong historical performance of Berkshire and fault Warren's abilities and insight. I think I've read somewhere that Buffett expects his heirs to simply invest in the S&P500 index. I'd count that as hav...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD rates at Fidelity and Vanguard
Replies: 1
Views: 454

CD rates at Fidelity and Vanguard

Hello, I'm looking to replace a few of the CDs that are going to soon mature in my Fidelity IRA. I've noticed that their rates for 1-2 year maturities do not seem competitive (compared with what I've seen on depositaccounts). It appears, with a quick check, that Vanguard offers similar rates as Fide...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6560

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

And there have been others, like Bill Miller, Ken Heebner, Bruce Berkowitz, and Neil Woodford, who have not. They have all been put forward as absolute proof of skill, and the ability to beat the market for extended periods of time. Then their funds collapsed. While such people are put forward as pr...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6560

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

I think what I'm having trouble understanding is Why do you HAVE to beat something (the market for example). Why can you not just make good returns on your investment(s)? Why does it matter that I would want to "beat" something else? For example, an index? Maybe I just need more time understanding ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6560

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

No one finds it ironic that philosophical index fund investors talk about beating the market? It is impossible to beat it since your portfolio is the market--you're at it's mercy, up or down. "Diversified" by buying indexes of other markets, but again, you're not going to beat any of them, just go ...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6560

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

I here people always trying to "beat the market" or the S&P 500. Why would I want to or need to try and beat it? Because more is better? I don't know about anyone else, but if there were a guaranteed way to beat the market without increased risk and no additional work, I'd do it. Why not? +100 as t...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Separate $ in...retirement??
Replies: 38
Views: 3622

Re: Separate $ in...retirement??

I think your wife values her independence and is potentially afraid of losing that in retirement. Try and empathize with that. She speaks as if she simply wants to be in charge of her own life, not that she wants to hoard her money away from you or blow through it all. I don't think drastic changes...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increasing risk appetite
Replies: 36
Views: 1593

Re: Increasing risk appetite

I am a diehard 3 funder since 2007. Have done well by hanging out on BH, bull market and high income. Anticipate basic financial independence early 50s assuming no big bear or other negative event. Of late my desire to “play the markets” has increased.I want to let a small % run on risky strategies...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?
Replies: 25
Views: 2810

Re: What is YOUR formula in determining whether you're FI? And what did you do after you reach FI?

When our anticipated/expected COLA pensions exceeded our "normal" monthly bills + 20%, we retired. For many years, when I was much younger, I never really thought SS would be around by the time I retired. So, for us, SS and our portfolio will be a "bonus" - hopefully making our retirement a lifestyl...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your most difficult and your most euphoric investing moments
Replies: 24
Views: 1917

Re: Your most difficult and your most euphoric investing moments

Had to think about this for a moment... There's been several "difficult" and "euphoric" investing moments for me, but, I can think of a pair of these moments involving the same stock. Waaay back - in the early eighties - I had bought some "penny" stocks :shock: from a broker that was also the underw...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund or ??
Replies: 2
Views: 482

Re: Bond fund or ??

If you want a personal preference it would be to settle on an asset allocation and use BND or any other diversified, low cost, intermediate term bond fund. On average over time intermediate bond funds are a good choice. See also the concept of the three fund portfolio. Lots of other choices in fixe...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund or ??
Replies: 2
Views: 482

Bond fund or ??

Hello, seeking advice about which bond funds to purchase OR if, perhaps, I'm currently a bit too conservative. A little background... Current desired AA - 50/50. Have at least 1 year emergency fund and NO debt whatsoever. Portfolio Value: about 1.2 Mil, Do NOT anticipate needing portfolio for retire...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of my current stocks, what should I buy/sell?
Replies: 4
Views: 502

Re: Out of my current stocks, what should I buy/sell?

I'm pretty sure, here on Bogleheads, you'll get a consistent response to 'sell all individual stocks and buy the market - aka VTI'. Having said that, I looked over your "pies" and saw many fine companies - many that I've individually owned myself before I started taking half steps toward 'buying the...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to buy Car extended warranty ?
Replies: 56
Views: 3326

Re: When to buy Car extended warranty ?

I never buy extended warranties on my vehicles. Are you absolutely set on the Mercedes C43? If so, I'd carefully evaluate its repair record and the repair/reliability record of Mercedes in general and then determine whether an extended warranty is needed ( off the top of my head, I'd suggest that Me...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Money Market Funds vs CD Ladder
Replies: 9
Views: 1119

Re: Money Market Funds vs CD Ladder

I don't really compare money market funds to CDs. The former are totally liquid, while the latter are not. CDs are more directly compared to Treasuries of the same maturity, although each has different characteristics besides just yield and maturity. I typically buy CDs with the intention to hold t...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CalSTRS - California Teachers' Pensions
Replies: 19
Views: 2244

Re: CalSTRS - California Teachers' Pensions

One thing you might consider is the funding status of CALSTRS. My wife is a retired California teacher and, frankly, I was/am appalled at the pension funding status. I don't recall exactly where it is off the top of my head - - but, I think it's funded below 70% currently....and, I think it's been ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: half steps to embracing a 4 fund portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 445

Re: half steps to embracing a 4 fund portfolio

Re VGT and MGK: If you're going to overweight companies like Apple and Microsoft, you should ask yourself whether you have some reason to believe that these companies' securities will outperform the market in the future. The question isn't simply whether these companies will do well in the future. ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: half steps to embracing a 4 fund portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 445

half steps to embracing a 4 fund portfolio

Hello, Over the past several years, I've been trying to come to terms with ridding myself of individual stocks (CLX, AAPL, ORI, WMT, USB, etc) and replacing them with VIG, VGT, MGK, and VPU. I already have significant holdings in VOO.... although, after lurking on this site for some time, it seems t...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CalSTRS - California Teachers' Pensions
Replies: 19
Views: 2244

Re: CalSTRS - California Teachers' Pensions

One thing you might consider is the funding status of CALSTRS. My wife is a retired California teacher and, frankly, I was/am appalled at the pension funding status. I don't recall exactly where it is off the top of my head - - but, I think it's funded below 70% currently....and, I think it's been s...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?
Replies: 67
Views: 5355

Re: Do you consider pensions as part of your overall asset allocation?

My wife and I would both have pensions at retirement. Hers would be a federal pension and mine a corporate pension. Both reasonably solid. Hers as solid as you can get being back by the federal government. Do you value these income flows along with social security as fixed income as part of an over...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.
Replies: 113
Views: 8007

Re: Worried I am getting addicted to individual stocks.

I read this with interest. For many years, I bought individual stocks - and, generally speaking, I'd say I underperformed the market a bit. I still own some individual stocks (that I've owned for many years) because I like the industries and management - Walmart and Apple come to mind. Lately, I've ...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best 3 fund portfolio?
Replies: 1
Views: 578

Best 3 fund portfolio?

I'm attempting to simplify my stock holdings. I've recently made some moves to lower the ER on stock holdings... but, I'm reasonably sure that folks here will think I'm WAY over complicating my portfolio. I'd really like to know if y'all have come up with the 'best' (and preferably simple) basic por...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term bond ETF price fluctuation
Replies: 11
Views: 839

Re: Short term bond ETF price fluctuation

Dumb question I've wanted to ask -and seems fitting in this thread: Is the price of the bond ETF/Mutual Fund (ex Total Bond Market) based on what people are willing to pay for it - i.e. like stocks (supply/demand as the OP mentioned)? Or is it simply based on bonds themselves? If the price is based...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short term bond ETF price fluctuation
Replies: 11
Views: 839

Re: Short term bond ETF price fluctuation

given my perception that interest rates/yields seem stable (or, even weakening) This assumption is incorrect. The yield on the 10 year treasury has increased approximately 30 basis points in the last 5 days. That is a 20% increase in yield. I wouldn’t call that “stable”. Point taken. I did look at ...