Search found 555 matches

by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Is this time different?"
Replies: 77
Views: 5606

Re: "Is this time different?"

One of the basic tenets of Bogleheads is to "stay the course", to establish an IPS, determine an AA, and "tune out the noise" which would otherwise distract from "staying the course". Those straying from this principle are often derided as "market timers", or "reacting to noise", instead of stickin...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17310

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

chuckb84 wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:44 pm
"That’s personal-finance celebrity Suze Orman offering some advice...."

Run away. Like taking stock buying advice from Jim Cramer....maybe worse.
IMHO, she IS worse than taking advice from Jim Cramer. And, that speaks volumes...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds
Replies: 173
Views: 17310

Re: Susie Orman Says You are Crazy to be Investing in Bonds

Brianmcg321 wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:15 pm
Susie Orman is an idiot.

She makes more money selling credit cards than financial advice. Less than zero respect for her.
+1M Especially that last sentence.
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

It does not need to be superior to international to outperform - the market already thinks that - it must be extraordinarily and persistently superior beyond what the average aggregate investor already believes. Fair point. In aggregate, the US has outperformed for many decades. Yes, I know there h...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Okay. Thanks. I'm a bit amazed they'd put out projections 10 years into the future again. I'm reminded of that joke about putting 10 economists into a room and asking where the economy will be in 1 year - and, then getting 11 predictions. But, I digress... I think someone here on BH found Vanguard'...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Okay. Thanks. I'm a bit amazed they'd put out projections 10 years into the future again. I'm reminded of that joke about putting 10 economists into a room and asking where the economy will be in 1 year - and, then getting 11 predictions. But, I digress... I think someone here on BH found Vanguard'...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Here is the thing - Nobody has any idea which country or sector will outperform another. As world-renowned Finance professor Kenneth French states time and time again: Realized Return = Expected Return + Unexpected Return. Over the very long term, unexpected return trends toward zero. Over the shor...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Here is the thing - Nobody has any idea which country or sector will outperform another. As world-renowned Finance professor Kenneth French states time and time again: Realized Return = Expected Return + Unexpected Return. Over the very long term, unexpected return trends toward zero. Over the shor...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Most of the talent is abroad based on sheer numbers, even when taking into account the considerable brain drain to the US. The problem is that this doesn't translate to returns on indexing the vast majority of foreign stock exchanges. There are many other factors which are obstacles on the path fro...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Transparency? Form of government? Taxation policies? Rule-of-law? National demographics? Availability of natural resources? University systems? Yes, I realize other countries have some/all of these qualities. I don't believe the whole of exUS has these qualities. -1. You are not only saying that th...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

It's been my limited experience that minds do not get changed over this topic I think some older people tend to distrust non-American humans. Younger people don't trust Americans, either. :wink: You may very well be correct. But, I'm old (early 60s) and I regularly marvel at the genius (across the ...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Transparency? Form of government? Taxation policies? Rule-of-law? National demographics? Availability of natural resources? University systems? Yes, I realize other countries have some/all of these qualities. I don't believe the whole of exUS has these qualities. -1. You are not only saying that th...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

I've got no beef with people believing that the US market is better along whatever axis than international, but I don't see a fundamental difference between that position and the people who believe that Spacely Sprockets stock is a better thing to be invested in than Cogswell Cogs stocks. The only ...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

The US holds certain advantages and yes, that is priced into the US and international markets...hence the relative performance in the last decade or so. It can't go both ways: either the advantages were priced in, or there was outperformance. It can't be both. Fair point. I think history generally ...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

This is what i have trouble with. Let's assume there is, fundamentally, something different about the US stock market, US domiciled corporations, and US citizens and that this difference makes US stocks a fundamentally superior investment than elsewhere. Things just simply are this way. Right or wr...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

I’m still a relatively new investor so please forgive my ignorance if I’m off base here, but didn’t Jack himself say that international was not needed at all? I remember him saying something to the effect that top US companies have so much international exposure that it’s just not needed, and if yo...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

That's the logical extension, but I don't understand stopping at U.S. vs. international. Equities have characteristics like domicile, sector, various performance measures (P/E, etc.), etc. So to invest in only the U.S., and to invest in a broad-based U.S. index, you have to believe that domicile is...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

In other words, the US economy was 9x better (6/2 divided by 4.2/19) at returning money to the pockets of investors for a given amount of GDP growth than the Chinese economy was. I'm sure there are all sorts of reasons for this, such as how much of the economy is represented in public markets, tran...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Not only does Vanguard have a track record of ALWAYS recommending, pushing or selling international, both as part of the PAS and in their reports, research and other tools, but they also have a track record of poor forecasting of how international would perform relative to US. In their 2010 forecas...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

Not only does Vanguard have a track record of ALWAYS recommending, pushing or selling international, both as part of the PAS and in their reports, research and other tools, but they also have a track record of poor forecasting of how international would perform relative to US. In their 2010 forecas...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Growth ETF
Replies: 28
Views: 1852

Re: Vanguard Growth ETF

I've recently switched my stock holding from the Total Stock Market ETF to the Growth ETF. Per Vanguard's data, the Growth ETF has outperformed the Total Stock Market in every time frame by a considerable amount. What are your thoughts? I like MGK and VGT - and, hold both with a significant amount ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

MFJ, 12% tax bracket, retired. Our taxable holdings consist of: 68% total U.S.stock index (VTSAX) $399,560 32% total international stock (VTIAX) $184,115 I'm ready to exchange VTIAX for more VTSAX due to international's lackluster performance. (I regret letting the Vanguard PAS talk us into investi...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ditching International
Replies: 274
Views: 15621

Re: Ditching International

MFJ, 12% tax bracket, retired. Our taxable holdings consist of: 68% total U.S.stock index (VTSAX) $399,560 32% total international stock (VTIAX) $184,115 I'm ready to exchange VTIAX for more VTSAX due to international's lackluster performance . (I regret letting the Vanguard PAS talk us into invest...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nickeling and diming
Replies: 53
Views: 5364

Re: Nickeling and diming

When is a good idea to nickel and dime , and when is pointless and a waste of time? At what point is nickeling and diming a futile exercise? I see many posts here looking price guidance, basic parameters about difficult to know prices, i.e. particular type of equipment, special solution to structur...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Risk sharing thought experiment
Replies: 17
Views: 815

Re: Risk sharing thought experiment

I imagine these kinds of relationships (financial/personal) can go bad. Having said that, I have, in the past, loaned my brother part of the money he needed to custom build his home. He agreed to pay me what the money was earning in the bank (plus 1%). It worked out fine and he paid me the money whe...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - Does anyone own some?
Replies: 69
Views: 3652

Re: Utilities - Does anyone own some?

About a month ago, I purchased some VPU (Vanguard Utilities ETF) for my retirement account. I had a bond mature and with rates so incredible low, I chose to increase my equity exposure with some utilities rather than reinvesting in bonds. I know it is not a bond substitute per se, but they do creat...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredible Returns
Replies: 67
Views: 6076

Re: Incredible Returns

My sister-in-law is a very lucky person. She has taken a $10K inheritance and turned it into an account worth nearly $100K of 'fun' money over the 6-8 years. To be fair, she does a lot of research on the companies she's interested in and tends to focus on 'local' companies. She bought AAXN (taser co...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11499

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

I sure don't want to be labeled a 'performance chaser' and switch equities into international based on Vanguard's projections. Curious...have Vanguard's projections been accurate over the years? We're at the start of a new decade (and we know what happened last decade) - is international giving the ...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CLOs and "the coming bank collapse"
Replies: 26
Views: 3185

Re: CLOs and "the coming bank collapse"

irrationalexuberance, I encountered this article yesterday, and it piqued my interest. So I did a little digging. What I learned is that a) the CLO market is considerably smaller than the mortgage CDO market of the '07-'08 crisis b) credit default swaps, which were the accelerant for the explosion ...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I won't be shocked if stocks' recovery from the lows set in March turns out to be a sucker rally. But I don't know. You may be right. But, I suspect we won't return to the March lows anytime soon - they'll crank up the printing presses for another round of stimulus and, IMO, it'd take a dramatic ch...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

With the market going up a percent a day what could possibly go wrong. As much as I hate to say, it's time to cash out a portion of your equity holdings while stocks is running up. At least for the people who will need the money for the next 5 years. Protesters just suddenly forget social distancin...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19256
Views: 2673120

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wth is happening in the markets lol. Is this a game? To test my risk tolerance? The market is always looking to take advantage of your weaknesses and make you mourn what could have been. Easy solution to this uneasy feeling- adjust your thinking. If the market goes up it’s awesome because you’re ma...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16239

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

Thoughts on sell off? Same thing I try to do on any really bad day - buy some equities. That's what I've done today at about 11am PST (while gritting my teeth). If the market crashes, I'll try to do what I did last time - buy on the way down and (probably) on the way back up. Of course, this only wo...
by Rosencrantz1
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

May I ask as to what you lump summed into? I keep hearing the siren song of TINA (just want to try and make sure I'm not lured by FOMO). I'm still adding a bit here and there to VOO/VTI - but, I admit it's getting harder for me to hit the 'buy' button lately. At this point I'm becomig the reallife ...
by Rosencrantz1
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lump summed 18k today (now 40% of my invested assets), I hope that the soaring doesn't stop :mrgreen: May I ask as to what you lump summed into? I keep hearing the siren song of TINA (just want to try and make sure I'm not lured by FOMO). I'm still adding a bit here and there to VOO/VTI - but, I ad...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 92
Views: 8670

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

I increased my stock allocation significantly, so that between December 2019 and May 2020, I went from something ike 5% stocks to 125% stocks. Sounds a lot like market timing. Or, do folks use the term 'strategic allocation shift' instead? Investors can move in and out of the market for reasons tha...
by Rosencrantz1
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 92
Views: 8670

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

Caduceus wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:02 am
I increased my stock allocation significantly, so that between December 2019 and May 2020, I went from something ike 5% stocks to 125% stocks.
Sounds a lot like market timing. Or, do folks use the term 'strategic allocation shift' instead?
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 92
Views: 8670

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

So think about how you felt over the past few months, and maybe that was a sign that your allocation was too aggressive. Since the stock market is back to even today, it’s like the calendar went back to January and granted you a reprieve. If you didn’t sell during the downturn, if you were paralyze...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?
Replies: 32
Views: 2177

Re: Has U.S oupterformed or has International underperformed?

In my opinion, the difference between US and international is lost in the noise and has been since the inception of the first international stock index, MSCI EAFE. Of course many such differences are. The only reason people don't realize it is that people don't want to come to grips with just how b...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lump summed 18k today (now 40% of my invested assets), I hope that the soaring doesn't stop :mrgreen: I admit it's getting harder for me to hit the 'buy' button lately. Not a problem for me. Given what has been happening in the market, I’m buying bonds with new money! Yeah. I should try to keep an ...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any market timers cashing out soon?
Replies: 74
Views: 7977

Re: Are any market timers cashing out soon?

Jim Cramer calling out "manipulation" in the market this morning. Seems odd for him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04-N7VHBplU&feature=youtu.be If somebody is manipulating stock prices to help out their derivative trades, it would have to be somebody with a big account. I don't think it's a bunch...
by Rosencrantz1
Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lump summed 18k today (now 40% of my invested assets), I hope that the soaring doesn't stop :mrgreen: May I ask as to what you lump summed into? I keep hearing the siren song of TINA (just want to try and make sure I'm not lured by FOMO). I'm still adding a bit here and there to VOO/VTI - but, I ad...
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:12 pm
Time to get this thread active again.

Futures are UP!
Amazing. Can't speak for the economy on the whole - but, the stock market return is starting to look an awful lot like a "V" or a very short "U".

I should sell some stock - that'd assuredly keep the market marching north... :happy
by Rosencrantz1
Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12743

Re: Investing in International Stocks

As far as China, a good read is Jonathan D. T. Ward’s “China's Vision of Victory.” If one doesn’t have the time for that, Matt Lewis had a detailed interview with him this week: https://www.mattklewis.com/matt-lewis-and-the-news/jonathan-d-t-ward-on-chinas-vision-of-victory/ Independent of the abov...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107645

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

And why, pray tell, did the OP 'disappear'? Read his posts on pages 16-17 of this thread, and you'll see that he experienced the same issue that I did: relentless and unmitigated criticism that devolved into downright attacks. Why would he continue to subject himself to that? Some of the OP's last ...
by Rosencrantz1
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees: what is your AA?
Replies: 80
Views: 3894

Re: Retirees: what is your AA?

It's about 75/25 (equity/bonds) in the IRAs and 100/0 in the Roths and 100/0 in the taxable brokerage. And, we have several years expenses in HYS/CDs as an EF. We are fortunate in that we have pension income greater than our expenses - so, we can take some additional equity risk. I do not see loweri...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 20962

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

Personally I appear to be entering into a relationship with TINA. Good that there is more than one TINA around - I find myself evaluating TINA more often lately too. I bought on the way down and back up - - but, the market seems, to me, to be getting pretty pricey now. BUT, I really struggle with '...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Congrats to everyone who held tough through this, and especially to those who kept aggressively buying the most downtrodden asset classes. It’s time to pour a nice glass of wine and smoke a cigar. Days like this don’t happen very often. :beer And before anyone tries to rain on our parade let me jus...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Congrats to everyone who held tough through this, and especially to those who kept aggressively buying the most downtrodden asset classes. It’s time to pour a nice glass of wine and smoke a cigar. Days like this don’t happen very often. :beer And before anyone tries to rain on our parade let me jus...
by Rosencrantz1
Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 542028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I was just driving on one of the major roads in the area, and for the first time in almost 3 months, it had a lot of traffic. There is some type of economic activity going on out there..... Another anecdote: Starbucks parking lot where I live was packed.... last week I had my choice of spots, today...