Search found 11428 matches

by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 6
Views: 338

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

At work but short reply, I have not backtested but believe valuations at the extremes are highly predictive of five to fifteen years returns. Of course it is a form of market timing. I can flex us/international based on relative valuations (since late 2013 I have been 60% international) but this lea...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 6
Views: 338

My CAPE10 based IPS

Here it is, for those who have asked (in summary form, omitting elements of the IPS which are specific to my situation or otherwise personal): * 60/40 stocks/bonds * Bonds 50/50 total bond/stable value until 10 year treasury > 6% * Stocks 50/50 US/international, can go up 75% international based on ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

It's absurd to interpet a graph without a scale. I'm surprised you would suggest we try. But I went to the multpl website and found that in 2000, CAPE was 44, or 300% of it's long term average. According to your graph, forward PE was 26, or maybe 160% of mean (using the line indicated on your graph)...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

For those who are saying that CAPE is somehow reasonable while putting down forward PE, let's take a look at both since 1990. Here's a graph of CAPE from Shiller's site beginning at 1990. It's a little fuzzy because I just blew up the one from the site. It's good enough for this purpose. https://i....
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate Planning Attorney Says Putting tIRA in a Revocable Trust is "Complicated" - True?
Replies: 42
Views: 2578

Re: Estate Planning Attorney Says Putting tIRA in a Revocable Trust is "Complicated" - True?

Why can't the IRA be left to trust, with the trust distributing income annually or more at trustee discretion, and daughter being beneficiary of trust and thus eligible for the stretch; upon daughter's death, contingent beneficiaries of trust are charities, which can then distribute balance of IRA i...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Vanguard said it explained 40%; "Explained" is always an unfortunate verb to use when one simply does a correlation. Nothing has really been explained by doing that--they've just found a variable that worth further exploration. For me, CAPE has theoretical issues--why would I consider earnings from...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Vanguard said it explained 40%; "Explained" is always an unfortunate verb to use when one simply does a correlation. Nothing has really been explained by doing that--they've just found a variable that worth further exploration. For me, CAPE has theoretical issues--why would I consider earnings from...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

That’s what I’m asking you: what percent of future returns do YOU think CAPE predicts? You say it’s largely an artifact, I disagree, and my IPS is built around responding to extreme CAPE values. In descriptive terms, for instance, I propose that top decile CAPEs (adjusted for changes in GAAP), predi...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Higher may be the new normal, but again, that doesn't explain real returns over the last 27 years. I truly believe that CAPE 10 is little more than statistical artifact that Shiller 'discovered' that has something to do with future stock returns but not nearly as much as it appeared to according to...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Also, CAPE has not been above its long term average since 1992. For about one month in March 2009, it was below its long term average. 8-) yeah 1 month out of 312... Seriously man, come on. I’m dead serious. It was a great buying opportunity. The intra-month low was around 12, 25% below its long te...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

As for forward earnings, I'll trust them when someone can tell me the temperature next week Friday at noon with any degree of certainty. Do you really believe the last 10 years of next week Friday at noon temperatures will tell you exactly about next week Friday at noon temperatures? In fact isn't ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Finally, it is not correct that the 2008 earnings will suddenly drop off and be replaced with 2018 earnings. The multpl web site actually calculates Shiller PE daily and provides tabular data monthly. I believe Shiller's website used to calculate CAPE monthly if not daily but I haven't checked it i...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

The market is forward looking but that doesn't mean it's accurately forward looking. Forward PE is highly susceptible to the "animal spirits" Bogle talks about; it's more a reflection of psychology (euphoria vs nihilism) than any facts on the ground. This is why past earnings are a better measure of...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 56
Views: 3278

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

I don't know why you'd only look at the last twenty years. Oh, maybe it's because if you looked at a longer period of time, we'd find your assertion that stocks are about average to be complete phooey. Today's prices only look average if you ignore the prior 80 years of market history. In fact compa...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep
Replies: 44
Views: 3343

Re: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep

By the way, yes I’m aware the long game for them here is get him in our ecosystem and then one day we can make some money off him, but as long as I just stick with self directed vanguard etfs, I don’t see the downside. If you use the traditional platform and not the new you invest, you can call the...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA or convert to non-IRA cash
Replies: 6
Views: 376

Re: Inherited IRA or convert to non-IRA cash

Hello Bogleheads, I would like to know if an executor can sell IRA assets and convert it to non-IRA cash, in effect taking IRA distributions post-death. Then the executor would distribute to the heirs the cash and avoid the tax consequences of inherited IRAs. The decedent's has medical bills which,...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep
Replies: 44
Views: 3343

Re: Should I bother meeting with a Chase Private Client Rep

Most of the posts here are wrong. I'm very happy with CPC. it costs me nothing as I keep the required amount invested in Vanguard admiral shares. I like the no fees for anything and when I needed a certifying officer signature for a large amount, my credit unions couldn't handle it, but CPC could. F...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3776

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

What does flagship status have to do with equity allocation? Is David flagship? It seems your need, ability, and desire to take risk are more relevant than your arbitrary status with one company.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiary unallowed in joint taxable -move to single acct?
Replies: 10
Views: 736

Re: Beneficiary unallowed in joint taxable -move to single acct?

Hello everyone, After the birth of my child, I am trying to make sure all my retirement/non retirement accounts have a beneficiary (my child) listed. I don't have a will/trust yet - I'm in the process of it. I have around $37K in a joint taxable account with my wife through Vanguard. I don’t feel s...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on Car Expenditures
Replies: 19
Views: 740

Re: Thoughts on Car Expenditures

It seems that the average sales price for a car in US is around 30k. With average household income of 60k, let's make an aggressive simplifying assumption (most households have more than one car) that there is only one producer and one car per household. That's 50% of gross annual income spent on a...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning to Contact Vanguard
Replies: 29
Views: 1775

Re: Planning to Contact Vanguard

To be clear, I'm looking for two plans. One is between now and retirement in 2 to 3 years(which isn't that important right now since it's only 2 to 3 years out) and the other is post-retirement (35+ years). But I'm not 100% sure that the retirement date is exactly where I think it is, hence the nee...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7387

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

We're less interested in squeezing every dollar out of the SSA, and more interested in using the longevity insurance feature of the program. Thus it makes sense for me as the much higher earner to delay my benefit as long as I am in average or better health, and for my spouse to take hers somewhere ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11070

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

I reached my ultimate goal in my career at age 48. It was what I always wanted and worked for. After 3-5 years of working in this position I was FI by quite a wide margin. Did my work ethic and drive diminish? Disappointingly it did. I regret this even now after 12 years of retirement. Wish I could...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a Charity
Replies: 69
Views: 2714

Re: Picking a Charity

With all respect to the OP, how does a thoughtful, introspective, considered, mindful adult reach this point in his life without ever having found a single charitable cause that touches his soul?
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11070

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

The difficulty is that taking the next step careerwise after one reaches FI will almost occur in midlife. This is usually when we are at our busiest because of family/kid commitments, and also when our own mortality starts peaking at us from over the horizon. This makes the prospect of trading life ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11070

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

I reached my ultimate goal in my career at age 48. It was what I always wanted and worked for. After 3-5 years of working in this position I was FI by quite a wide margin. Did my work ethic and drive diminish? Disappointingly it did. I regret this even now after 12 years of retirement. Wish I could...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 2406

Re: Hypothetical Question - Market Timing

DeadPoets wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:00 am
This is strictly a hypothetical situation for educational purposes only.
...
FWIW, I do think the market is going to take a pretty big hit in the next year or 2. That's why I'm hesitant to get in now.
Not actually hypothetical then, is it.
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do bogleheads save in 529?
Replies: 79
Views: 4500

Re: How much do bogleheads save in 529?

Dear Bogleheads, I was listening to Ric Edelman recently and he was predicting that cost of college education might become free in the next 18 years. Similar to what NYU has done in making medical education free, he felt that many institutions with large endowments such and Harvard and Yale will fo...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max you should invest in a 529?
Replies: 181
Views: 9834

Re: Max you should invest in a 529?

529 can be used as an estate planning tool. You basically have a tax-free scholarship fund for your future generations. I don't believe leave huge inherit for children so they could buy a yacht, racing car. Education is the best investment you could ever have. another reason the affluent should use...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max you should invest in a 529?
Replies: 181
Views: 9834

Re: Max you should invest in a 529?

529 can be used as an estate planning tool. You basically have a tax-free scholarship fund for your future generations. I don't believe leave huge inherit for children so they could buy a yacht, racing car. Education is the best investment you could ever have. another reason the affluent should use...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent Increase or Not?
Replies: 25
Views: 2542

Re: Rent Increase or Not?

I have a rental property in which the lease is about to expire. The current tenant's have been pretty good in terms of paying on time, however I believe the rent is about 5% below market for the area on top of that I had to pay a special assessment and increased HOA fee this year. I was thinking ab...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max you should invest in a 529?
Replies: 181
Views: 9834

Re: Max you should invest in a 529?

the tax savings are concentrated in the avoidance of LTCG at the end of the race, not the relatively minor tax drag along the way. if we liquidated our 529s today, we’d avoid enough federal income taxes to pay for three years of tuition at our flagship university. even for a Boglehead, that’s not p...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Max you should invest in a 529?
Replies: 181
Views: 9834

Re: Max you should invest in a 529?

I think fear of taxes and obsession with tax avoidance opportunities / tax sheltered accounts tends to bias people's views on 529s a bit. For most folks paying 15% on QDI/LTCG, annual tax drag on US total stock market yield of ~1.8% is 27 bps, or $27/yr for every $10k invested in a taxable account....
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on kids extracurriculars?
Replies: 85
Views: 4608

Re: How much do you spend on kids extracurriculars?

We just did the schedule for the fall, and I feel we have gone off the deep end. Estimated on annual basis, and including summer sports and activities, we seem to be spending ~$1100 per month, or on average $550 per kid. Our biggest spend bucket. Is this as off the charts as I think it is? I am sur...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?
Replies: 96
Views: 6893

Re: Daily Driver (Car) Over 100K Miles?

I own an older Subaru Forester with > 100K miles. I recently spent $750 on a timing belt replacement so probably will keep the car 'til it dies. Who else has a high mileage vehicle that's used as a daily driver? What type of vehicle is it, and how do you decide when to sell it? Do you buy another c...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do you drop collision insurance?
Replies: 52
Views: 2860

Re: When do you drop collision insurance?

If you can afford to drop collision in a $2500 vehicle, you can afford to raise the deductible to $1000+, right?
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do you drop collision insurance?
Replies: 52
Views: 2860

Re: When do you drop collision insurance?

my collision costs $99 per year and the car is worth $3000 so I keep it.
by letsgobobby
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you store financial account information with your estate plan?
Replies: 51
Views: 3212

Re: How do you store financial account information with your estate plan?

Having helped settle an estate recently, I was fortunate in that I knew where their 401k/IRA/bank accounts were held at. They also received mostly paper statements instead of electronic for knowing who had the mortgage, etc. That isn't the case for me, and if something happened, my successor truste...
by letsgobobby
Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Last Will and testament involving very young children and 7 figure estate. What have you done?
Replies: 15
Views: 2076

Re: Last Will and testament involving very young children and 7 figure estate. What have you done?

Hello Wise bogleheads, Doing a bit of spring cleaning with my finances and need to create a will. (yes, I don't have one. Shame on me.) Wondering when an online generic Will is inappropriate. We have a low 7 figure net worth and everything will go to spouse upon my passing, and visa versa. Easy pea...
by letsgobobby
Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to park 1m into Vanguard IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 1325

Re: Looking to park 1m into Vanguard IRA

susa wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:25 pm
The entire sum is in an interest paying account, ie. 5%, not in a fund of any kind.

It is all or nothing.
There is nothing equivalent at Vanguard or anywhere else.
by letsgobobby
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening 2018
Replies: 68
Views: 6622

Re: Gardening 2018

Not a great year for us. Got a few week late start in the spring due to failed seeds starter in the house, then some travel. Then rabbits, crows, and deer annhilated our starts and we had to start over. We finally started getting tomatoes about the 10th of August, and they’re great as usual. But bro...
by letsgobobby
Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano for a child
Replies: 60
Views: 3100

Re: Piano for a child

I'd buy a used digital piano for $200 til she needs something better.
by letsgobobby
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mega Downsize....
Replies: 91
Views: 8326

Re: Mega Downsize....

DW and I have decided (along with our high school daughter) that's it's time for a major "downsize/declutter" mission. We've honestly been pack rats and gatherers for the past 20 years and it has to stop - NOW! :D This is not going to be an easy accomplishment. It's not so much that the things we'v...
by letsgobobby
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Done saving for retirement according to firecalc?
Replies: 51
Views: 4824

Re: Done saving for retirement according to firecalc?

You didn't tell us your annual expenses... Do you want us to just guess?

:)
by letsgobobby
Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?
Replies: 68
Views: 12169

Re: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?

Like another poster, you didn't read carefully. Prices are declining since the spring peak and this cannot be explained by seasonal factors.